Demetrious Johnson vs. John Dodson 2: A Head-to-Toe Breakdown

UFC 191 plays host to the flyweight title match we have all been waiting to see. Demetrious Johnson defends the 125-pound title belt for the seventh time this weekend in Las Vegas against the man whom he beat in his first title defense—John Dodson.

Injuries have kept this rematch off the table for some time, but Dodson is healthy again and riding a three-fight win streak. After nearly a year away from the cage, he returned in May to defeat the ever-tough Zach Makovsky in a grueling three-round fight.

Johnson, on the other hand, has been active and dominant. Since the 2013 fight against Dodson, Might Mouse has defended the crown five times with four finishes. John Moraga, Joseph Benavidez, Ali Bagautinov, Chris Cariaso and Kyoji Horiguchi have all come up on the losing end against the champ.

The Johnson vs. Dodson title tilt promises almost surefire fireworks.

Who holds the edge? Who walks out as the champion? Let's take a look at the head-to-toe breakdown for Saturday's championship bout.

Striking

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Dodson nearly stopped Johnson's reign before it started when he cracked the champion in their first meeting. Johnson understands the power that Dodson possesses.

The Jackson-Winkeljohn product is a fantastic striker, but he isn't as technically skilled as trainer Matt Hume's protege. Dodson relies more on his power to get the job done. He sets up his strikes nicely, but he isn't nearly as smooth as Johnson is.

The champion has started to add more power to his strikes as well. His blistering knockout over Benavidez was shocking. He caught him flush early in the fight and turned off the lights. It was not a lucky punch or something that he simply winged from the heavens. Johnson saw the opening and leveled his challenger. His speed and accuracy allow him to exploit his opponents.

The stats don't lie. Johnson's FightMetric stats are all better than Dodson's numbers. He lands more significant strikes per minute, is more accurate and absorbs less.

Expect Johnson to be wary of Dodson's power on Saturday. He can still get obliterated if Dodson connects, but technically speaking, Johnson is the better striker. It shouldn't even be a question at this point.

Edge: Johnson

Grappling

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Johnson used to rely on his wrestling more in the past to get the job done. His level changes and shot have always been special. However, now with his improved hands, he is even better at getting the fight to the mat.

With that said, it still won't be easy this weekend.

Dodson has some of the best takedown defense in the division. He is exceptionally quick and has a powerful sprawl. Johnson most likely won't be able to just shoot in and take him to the floor. The takedowns will have to come with success on the feet.

When isolating the grappling category, it is Johnson who still holds the edge. He is simply better offensively than Dodson is. If they clinch against the cage, that may be the most intriguing position to watch. Dodson is physically strong and may be able to put the champion's back against the fence.

All in all, grappling is still an advantage for the champion. 

Edge: Johnson

Submissions

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Dodson has submission abilities, but it's not his style. He only has two submission finishes to his credit and none since 2007. Johnson, on the other hand, has three submission victories during this title run alone.

Dodson prefers to strike, and on the mat he prefers ground-and-pound. Under the tutelage of trainer Greg Jackson, there is little question that he is competent on the floor, but he does not think to look for the submission opportunities when they are presented to him.

Mighty Mouse is seamless on the ground. When there is an opening, he pounces. And he is always searching for a way to finish.

Johnson will threaten with a submission just to get his opponent to defend so he can then transition to something else. This is the most distinct and clear advantage for Johnson in this fight. Dodson will be hard to submit, but he shouldn't be a realistic threat to win by submitting the champion. That alone tips the scale in favor of Mighty Mouse.

Edge: Johnson

X-Factors

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Dodson's X-Factor: Lessons Learned

Dodson was 28 years old when he first met Johnson for the gold in 2013, and he was still developing as a mature fighter. It was evident in their fight that he made some rookie mistakes that first-time challengers make.

He went for the finish after hurting Johnson somewhat wildly and tired himself out. The champion began to take the fight over, and Dodson was mostly a non-factor in the championship rounds. It was a learning experience for Dodson, and now he has that under his belt.

What lessons did Dodson learn about fighting in championship fights, and what did he learn about Johnson's style? These factors will play a big role in how serious of a threat he can be to the champion. 

Johnson's X-Factor: Ability to Recover

Johnson's recovery rate is a big reason he was able to win the first fight with Dodson. A lesser fighter would have been out of that fight, but Johnson regained his composure quickly enough to not only avoid getting stopped but to come back and run away with the fight.

That was more than two years ago. While Johnson hasn't gotten hurt like that since, he is still five fights older. 

Johnson may or may not get hurt like that again, but having fast recovery against a quick and powerful fighter like Dodson is important. It allowed Johnson to keep his gold in their first meeting and may be important to his retaining once again at UFC 191.

Prediction

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I have given Johnson the edge in every category, and I believe he is the pound-for-pound best fighter on the planet right now. He is near perfect. Everything he does is textbook-beautiful.

Yet I am taking Dodson for the upset.

MMA is a sport of unpredictability. A fighter with clear advantages can still be clipped, and that will be what happens on Saturday.

Dodson's takedown defense will force Johnson to stand for longer periods of time than he might normally do against a powerful striker such as Dodson. This will give the challenger chances to end this fight.

The Magician will drop the champion and get the referee to stop it after a calculated follow-up of accurate strikes. Expect announcer Bruce Buffer to say, "...and new!" on Saturday night, as UFC President Dana White straps the flyweight belt around the waist of Dodson.

Prediction: Dodson defeats Johnson by TKO in the second round.