Revised Expectations for Tottenham After 1st Month of Season
Heading into the new season, Tottenham Hotspur's expectations were roughly the same as they have been for a while now: try and finish in one of the Premier League's top four places and once again qualify for the Champions League—talk of a cup run will also begin in earnest in the coming weeks with their first matches in the Europa League and Capital One Cup.
"I think that this is our aim, our challenge is to reduce the gap with the top four," head coach Mauricio Pochettino said in his first pre-match press conference of the season. "I think always we need to put our targets higher, but we know that we need to compete and we need to improve our game. And we need to do better than the last season."
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Despite completing the first month of the season without a win, the target of improving on 2014-15's commendable fifth-place finish has not changed. What has altered is the understanding of how difficult it will be for Tottenham to improve their game sufficiently enough to do so. That is partly because of factors in their own house and partly because the competition in the division appears to have gotten stronger.
This latter development should not have been a surprise to Pochettino or his team. Nor how it is already affecting them.
They tussled for the higher European places right up until May last time out with a Southampton side the Argentinian had previously helped establish back in the top flight. Hot on their and Liverpool's tails on the outskirts of the top four were Swansea City. The Welsh outfit quietly thriving in Garry Monk's first full season in charge just a few years into their inaugural Premier League stay.
Southampton have had a rough start, exiting the Europa League already, but a 3-0 win last time out against Norwich City has reiterated their qualities. Swansea, meanwhile, have been even more impressive. They beat Manchester United prior to the international break and remain unbeaten, inspired by smart acquisitions made by Monk this year and last, including former Spur Gylfi Sigurdsson.
Tottenham have not crossed paths with either yet and will know their initial advantages in the league table can be overhauled. But the difficulty of doing so will not be lost on them given they have been exposed to how increasing aspiration is now extending to even more unfancied clubs too.
Leicester City made Spurs work very hard for their two wins over the relegation-battlers last season. The 1-1 draw with the Foxes in August showed how fixtures that might have previously offered some respite to issues such as early-season teething problems or mixed form are not so much of a given anymore.
Journalist Miguel Delaney, writing in the Independent, offered anticipation of the forthcoming increase in television money as a major reason for the bigger confidence of these sides. They can buy better and are not so reliant on selling their best players to raise revenue, as Spurs found out with their unsuccessful pursuit of West Bromwich Albion's Saido Berahino.
Delaney cited the more erratic example of Sunderland in showing that making a good team is not as simple as investing in the transfer market. When the Black Cats have dipped in it, they have recruited more misses, Andrea Dossena, Emanuele Giaccherini and Alfred N'Diaye, than hits in recent years.
Indeed, while there is confidence in new players such as Gokhan Inler and Shinji Okazaki, Leicester and their like still have much to prove. Nonetheless, the evidence is there that the Premier League's middle class is getting more powerful.
More than ever, Tottenham—a near annual challenger for a top-four place since 2005-06—will need peripheral vision to negotiate the obstacles amassing around them if they are to sustain a place just on the periphery of the Champions League spots.
Their winless run has offered up some reasons to be concerned about their ability to do their own part in getting there. One game's defensive frailties has given way to a failure to take chances, and then vice versa. Their attacking credentials are still subject to undetermined configurations Pochettino has not yet had the opportunity to figure out.
These are chiefly in the form of how new signings Son Heung-Min and Clinton Njie are integrated and deployed among those already there. The process may take some time, which is even less available than in years past.
Add to that opponents are even more familiar with the aggressive style Pochettino wants from his team. Plus, for all the talent in his squad, there are other sides full of internationals and promising youngsters that believe they can match the capital club.
The flip side of Spurs' three-points-from-four-games haul is how very different it could have been.
They more than matched Manchester United in the season-opener. But for Nabil Bentaleb's careless midfield giveaway, the eventual 1-0 defeat could have been a different story. Better defensive focus would have earned wins over Stoke City and Leicester, while sharper finishing should have seen them comfortably dispatch Everton.
It is all a bit could've, should've, would've. But if an inconsistent, at times timid, team has been very much in with a chance of winning games against at least three sides who have started positively, then what could a settled and more focused Tottenham be capable of.
The blend of talented homegrown and foreign youngsters mixed with a sprinkling of quality experience that won some big games on the way to finishing fifth last season has not disappeared. Hugo Lloris and Harry Kane are still at White Hart Lane. Christian Eriksen, Danny Rose and Bentaleb too. Pochettino has kept the players he wanted, sold those he did not and brought in new faces he believes can improve his team in defence and attack.
If Dele Alli has begun brightly in an inconsistent team, what may the adventurous young midfielder be capable of once they figure things out? Toby Alderweireld similarly at the back. Njie, Son, Kieran Trippier and Kevin Wimmer have not even featured yet.
Spurs do not have a right to be anywhere, the changing Premier League landscape shows that much. The reality of the challenges facing Tottenham this season has hit home in the opening month—again, to be made even tougher with cup competition about to commence. A top-four finish will be as difficult as it has been in a decade.
A failure to get there should not be judged as harshly as it has in some years, making it all the more intriguing to see how much Pochettino will be trusted by the club's hierarchy if the battle to get back in there gets particularly fierce at times. After all, one of his predecessors, Andre Villas-Boas, was moved on by the board when things got messy in his second season. That, after recording a Premier League-era best points total just months earlier—although had it secured fourth he may have been given more leeway.
There is reason for supporters to be optimistic Pochettino and his Tottenham team will rise to meet the challenges ahead. But it has quickly become apparent that any substantial dips in form in 2015-16 are likely to be punished more severely than has been the case for some time.
Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted.
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