Biggest Obstacles Facing Top College Basketball Contenders in 2015-16
Though there are more than 350 teams at the Division I level in college basketball, most of them aren't serious contenders to win a national title or even come close to doing so. The ones that are in position to compete for a championship are a who's who of traditional powers, as well as some potential sleepers based on the teams they have in place for 2015-16.
But even those top teams have something that stands between them and a title, an obstacle of sorts that must be overcome in order to achieve that ultimate goal.
As we move closer to the upcoming season, here's a look at the biggest concerns or crises facing 20 of the top college basketball title contenders. Teams are listed alphabetically, rather than ranked.
Arizona Wildcats
1 of 20
A floor leader
After having two seasons' worth of incredibly heavy play from point guard T.J. McConnell, Arizona is starting over at the position in 2015-16. Parker Jackson-Cartwright looked good as McConnell's backup in 2014-15, but it was in very limited action, and the 5'10", 160-pound sophomore might be too small to handle the job on a full-time basis.
McConnell had 440 assists the past two seasons, as well as a stellar 3-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio, in leading Arizona to consecutive Elite Eights. Without him guiding the offense, the Wildcats will need to get more leadership from a collection of players that besides senior center Kaleb Tarczewski doesn't have much starting experience with the program. Transfers Ryan Anderson (Boston College) and Mark Tollefson (San Francisco) could end up being leaders in their first years of action.
California Golden Bears
2 of 20
Handling the hype
California last made the NCAA tournament in 2013 and hasn't been as far as the Sweet 16 since 1997. Yet the Golden Bears are getting plenty of consideration as a dark-horse pick not just to win the Pac-12 but also to make a Final Four run in Cuonzo Martin's second year.
Why? More than anything, because of the surprisingly strong recruiting class that Martin was able to lure to Berkeley. 247Sports rated the three-man group as seventh in the class of 2015, led by 5-star forwards Jaylen Brown and Ivan Rabb.
Both Brown and Rabb chose California over other major powers, and combined with returning starters Jabari Bird and Tyrone Wallace, there are the makings of a very good team that's landed raised expectations. But without past success, it's all hype until results are produced.
Connecticut Huskies
3 of 20
Consistent scoring
Connecticut went from a national champion to a first-round NIT knockout, unable to overcome the loss of key players from that title team and becoming very sluggish on offense. The Huskies averaged 64.1 points per game last season, which ranked 263rd in the nation, compared to 71.8 points per game in the title season.
Making matters worse, leading scorer Ryan Boatright has graduated, leaving junior Rodney Purvis as the team's top returner at 11.6 points per game.
The addition of graduate transfers from Seton Hall (guard Sterling Gibbs) and Cornell (forward Shonn Miller) will provide some much-needed scoring punch, but UConn will need more than just one player as the focal point on offense.
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Duke Blue Devils
4 of 20
Past championship history
Duke is already facing a difficult task to repeat in that it has to replace four starters from last year's championship team, including three freshmen who ended up being first-round draft picks. Even though the Blue Devils have brought in another strong recruiting class, which was ranked second by 247Sports, they have a daunting historical track record to deal with.
Since Florida won back-to-back NCAA titles in 2006-07, there hasn't been much success for defending champs. 2014 champ Connecticut ended up missing out on the NCAA tournament, instead relegated to the NIT. That was the fourth defending champ to have that happen, starting with Florida in 2008, and those that did make the NCAA tourney have failed to surpass the Sweet 16.
That includes Duke in 2011, a year after winning a title.
Gonzaga Bulldogs
5 of 20
Finding enough frontcourt minutes
Having too many talented players at one position could be considered a rich man's problem, but it's still a problem that needs addressing. Gonzaga has that up front, where there are three strong post players in 7'1" senior Przemek Karnowski, 6'10" senior Kyle Wiltjer and 6'10" sophomore Domantas Sabonis but probably only two spots for them.
Last year, that trio combined to score 37.4 points per game and chip in 19.1 rebounds while shooting a collective 59.3 percent from the field. Sabonis shot 66.8 percent but because of the backlog got only 21.6 minutes per game.
The Bulldogs also have a question mark at point guard, where sophomore Silas Melson and redshirt freshman Josh Perkins will be trying to replace Kevin Pangos. But the more pressing issue is how to maximize the strength down low and do so in a way that doesn't limit any of those players' abilities.
Indiana Hoosiers
6 of 20
Staying out of trouble
Indiana is by no means the only college program that's had to deal with off-the-court distractions, but the Hoosiers and coach Tom Crean have had a particularly bad run of it over the past 18 months. And that continued on Aug. 22 when sophomore Emmitt Holt and incoming freshman Thomas Bryant were cited for underage alcohol possession.
Bryant, a 6'10" power forward, is a 5-star prospect ranked by 247Sports as the No. 20 player in the 2015 class and someone many expect Indiana to rely heavily on in the paint.
Since February 2014, Indiana players have had numerous run-ins with the law, starting with Hanner Mosquera-Perea getting arrested for DUI. He and Devin Davis were dismissed from the team in May after the latter was cited for marijuana possession (Mosquera-Perea was with him at the time).
"They embarrass the university, they embarrass all of you in athletics, and they are a complete distraction from our primary role as an educational institution," Indiana athletic director Michael McRobbie said, per Michael Marot of the Associated Press. "This misbehavior simply has to stop."
UPDATE: Indiana announced Monday that Holt had been dismissed from the program, per Zach Osterman of the Indianapolis Star.
Iowa State Cyclones
7 of 20
Breaking in a new Mayor
Former Iowa State coach Fred Hoiberg was so adored in Ames, going back to his playing days as a Cyclone, that he was given the nickname of "The Mayor." But now his term at ISU, as he moved on to coach the NBA's Chicago Bulls, is succeeded by former Murray State coach Steve Prohm.
Prohm is the latest Murray State coach to parlay success at that mid-major program into a power-conference job, following the likes of Mark Gottfried (Alabama, now North Carolina State), Mick Cronin (Cincinnati) and Billy Kennedy (Texas A&M). The difference is that those coaches were taking over teams that weren't projected to be championship contenders, while Prohm's team is.
ISU returns a strong core of players from last year's team that won 25 games but was upset in the second round of the NCAA tournament. Seniors Georges Niang and Jameel McKay and junior Monte Morris have the Cyclones thinking big for 2015-16, but they have to be able to do that while getting used to a new coach with a different approach from what Hoiberg used.
Kansas Jayhawks
8 of 20
Cheick Diallo's eligibility
Kansas picked up a huge late recruiting prize when 5-star forward Cheick Diallo chose the Jayhawks over Iowa State, Kentucky and others. This came right after the 6'9" prospect won MVP honors at a pair of all-star games, including the McDonald's All-American Game.
But while Diallo has enrolled in the school, he's yet to be cleared by the NCAA to play this season. According to Jesse Newell of the Topeka Capitol-Journal, it could be at least another month before Kansas gets word on whether Diallo will be eligible for 2015-16.
"Three other times when KU has had eligibility questions—in the instances of Josh Selby, Ben McLemore and Jamari Traylor—the final ruling came in October or November," Newell wrote.
What is causing the holdup is whether the classes he took at Our Savior New American school in New York meet NCAA requirements. Other freshmen dealing with similar issues stemming from their time at that school include Alabama's Kobie Eubanks, who has been declared ineligible by the NCAA, and Pittsburgh's Damon Wilson, who remains in limbo.
Kentucky Wildcats
9 of 20
Finding the right system
Faced with an unexpected overabundance of depth for 2014-15, Kentucky coach John Calipari went with the unconventional move to platoon his top 10 players in a pair of five-man groups that would cycle in and out every few minutes. This system slowly fizzled out as the season went on, either because of injuries or because of what the situation called for, but it still resulted in no player logging more than 25.9 minutes per game.
What will Calipari look to do with his talent this season? That will likely depend on how this new group comes together during the preseason, but odds are it won't be another platoon. In May, he basically said this via his website, CoachCal.com, and many have speculated this was a recruiting ploy to ensure future prospects who might have been leery of reduced minutes wouldn't need to worry.
"If read between the lines: The platoons are hurting Kentucky's recruiting moving forward," Nicole Auerbach of USA Today wrote.
Kentucky ended up with the top-rated recruiting class thanks to a late push that included picking up several notable players this spring, but now comes the task of integrating those stars into a new system while the few holdovers from a year ago also have to adapt to a change in approach.
Louisville Cardinals
10 of 20
Taking care of the ball
Louisville made the most of a 10-day trip to Puerto Rico in August, as the games it played on that visit were the first chance to see what the new-look Cardinals would resemble with so much roster turnover from the year before. Overall, the results were good, except in one department: turnovers.
According to Eric Crawford of WDRB.com, Louisville averaged 18.4 turnovers in the five games played by its "A" squad, with a high of 26 and no fewer than 15 in any contest. Some of that sloppiness had to be attributed to using a 24-second shot clock, far down from the 35-second clock that college players operated under in 2014-15 and six seconds fewer than the 30-second clock in play for 2015-16.
"[Louisville coach Rick] Pitino says he hopes when practice begins to get [Damion] Lee, [Trey] Lewis and the other newcomers more acclimated to playing the game at a faster tempo," Crawford wrote.
Lee and Lewis are graduate transfers and part of a crop of six new players on the Cardinals' roster.
LSU Tigers
11 of 20
Not being a one-man team
LSU landed the nation's top recruit from the 2015 class in Australian Ben Simmons, a 6'10" prospect who considers himself a point forward who wants to be involved not just in the work down low but also out on the perimeter and in handling the ball.
We saw this during the Tigers' recent overseas trip to Simmons' homeland, as he led the team in scoring, rebounding, assists, steals, blocks and field-goal percentage, per Chris Dortch of Blue Ribbon Recruiting Magazine. He also had 25 turnovers in five games, per ESPN.com's Jeff Goodman.
Simmons is one of three notable freshmen LSU brought in for 2015-16, and combined with returners such as guard Tim Quarterman, the Tigers should be a force. But if they become overly reliant on Simmons to do it all, that is apt to result in plenty of rough games when he's inevitably shut down by strong defensive teams.
Maryland Terrapins
12 of 20
Ball-handling ability
Maryland had a breakout season last year and is now getting plenty of preseason hype for 2015-16, but the Terrapins still have an issue that plagued them in 2014-15 that must be addressed. That has to do with being more careful with the ball, something they did not do in their NCAA tournament loss to West Virginia when they turned it over 23 times.
For the year, Maryland turned the ball over on 16.9 percent of possessions, which ranked 205th out of 351 Division I teams, per Sports-Reference.com. Departed guard Dez Wells was the biggest culprit, with 92 turnovers in 28 games, but Melo Trimble also added 86 giveaways, and he'll be the Terps' main ball-handler this year as a sophomore.
Other guards such as Jared Nickens and Dion Wiley were better with the ball last season, but Trimble will be the one getting most of the touches.
Michigan State Spartans
13 of 20
Starting slowly
Michigan State was the surprise member of the Final Four in April, not so much because the team lacked talent or ability but because for much of the season the Spartans didn't show the ability to play and win consistently. MSU was 13-7 in late January before winning 14 of 19 to make it to the national semifinals.
This resulted in MSU getting a No. 7 seed in the NCAA tournament, leading to a tough road to the Final Four that required it to get past Georgia, Virginia, Oklahoma and Louisville before falling to eventual national champion Duke.
A similar slow start is possible this year depending on what sort of punishments MSU coach Tim Izzo will hand down to West Virginia transfer Eron Harris and reserve guard Alvin Ellis for legal issues they ran into this summer. Neither player accompanied the Spartans on their exhibition trip to Italy.
North Carolina Tar Heels
14 of 20
Hitting jump shots
North Carolina ranked 24th in Division I in field-goal shooting last year, at 47.6 percent, but much of that efficiency came from the close-in attempts that big men Isaiah Hicks, Brice Johnson and Kennedy Meeks put up at a great rate. When it came time to shoot a jumper, though, the results were far less successful.
The Tar Heels shot 35.8 percent from three-point range but only attempted 514 in 38 games, making them one of the least interested outside shooting teams in the country. This led to problems when the interior game was struggling because of turnovers or foul trouble, since they couldn't rely on Hicks, Johnson and Meeks and their combined 56 percent shooting.
UNC has almost the exact same team as a year ago, minus wing J.P. Tokoto, who was one of the biggest culprits when it came to poor jump shooting. Senior guard Marcus Paige needs to vastly improve in that area, though, as he was just 41.6 percent from the field after hitting 44 percent in 2013-14.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
15 of 20
Avoiding injury
Notre Dame was very fortunate in 2014-15 to be able to navigate an entire season—and nearly knock off Kentucky in the Elite Eight—with just a seven-man rotation that somehow avoided any injuries. That group of seven played nearly 92 percent of available minutes.
Two very big pieces of that group are no longer with the team, though, as Jerian Grant and Pat Connaughton have graduated. Grant led the team in scoring and assists, while Connaughton was the top rebounder.
The five who return—senior Zach Auguste, juniors V.J. Beachem, Demetrius Jackson and Steve Vasturia, and sophomore Bonzie Colson—should make for a strong starting five. But after that, there's not much experience to tap into. Either the bench players or some of the newcomers will need to make a major leap.
Oklahoma Sooners
16 of 20
Consistent play
Oklahoma's run to the Sweet 16 this past season came with plenty of highs and lows, sometimes in the same game. The Sooners frequently squandered big leads and also rallied from large deficits, which is why they ended up with a 24-11 record.
Losses to Creighton, Iowa State and others that involved large leads led to Oklahoma going 3-6 in games decided by five or fewer points. That includes the four-point loss to Michigan State in the NCAA tourney, a game the Sooners led for about 30 minutes.
The Sooners bring back a good portion of that team, losing only one starter (forward TaShawn Thomas) and bringing back All-American Buddy Hield. Along with Iowa State and Kansas, they'll be among the favorites to win the Big 12 and should be in line to make another strong NCAA tournament run but only if the results become more consistent.
Villanova Wildcats
17 of 20
Being challenged for the postseason
Villanova went 32-2 in the regular season, including a dominant 19-2 run through the Big East, but then the Wildcats became the first No. 1 seed to get booted from the NCAA tournament when North Carolina State knocked them off in the third round.
It was Villanova's fifth straight first-weekend tourney exit since Jay Wright got his team into the Final Four in 2009. The past two seasons, the Wildcats have been a No. 1 or No. 2 seed.
Last season, Villanova cruised for so much of the year that when an upstart opponent came along, it wasn't ready. This year, it will play in the NIT Season Tip-Off, but the semifinal field of Arkansas, Georgia Tech and Stanford isn't very strong. Games against Oklahoma, Virginia and Temple will provide better challenges in addition to the Big East schedule.
Virginia Cavaliers
18 of 20
Reliable offense
Virginia's two-year run as ACC regular-season champions has produced 60 victories and some of the most dominant defensive performances in the country. But when the Cavaliers have needed to be effective on offense, particularly in tight games, they've come up short.
As a result, Virginia has been knocked out of the NCAA tournament early (both times to Michigan State) and failed to top 60 points in either game.
Making matters worse, top three-point shooter Justin Anderson left early for the NBA, and Darion Atkins graduated. What remains is still a lockdown defensive team, but beyond Malcolm Brogdon and Anthony Gill, there aren't many reliable scorers to choose from.
Wichita State Shockers
19 of 20
Being more than just great guards
When Gregg Marshall opted not to leave Wichita State for Alabama, it was evident what the main reason was. It was actually two reasons: returning senior guards Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet, the players who have been at the center of the Shockers' amazing three-year run that's included a Final Four appearance and an unbeaten regular season.
That duo is again the focus of Wichita's team and why it's again a heavy favorite to win the Missouri Valley Conference and contend for a deep NCAA tournament run. But the Shockers have been out in the third round the last two seasons, and the issue in both of those losses (as well as other setbacks this past year) was a lack of formidable play in the frontcourt.
Graduate transfer Anton Grady, a 6'8" senior who averaged 14.3 points and 7.9 rebounds at Cleveland State last season, will help. But unless the frontcourt can be more than just space-fillers, Wichita will not be able to be a serious contender.
Wisconsin Badgers
20 of 20
Finding new playmakers
Wisconsin's outgoing players won't make for the most significant makeover of a notable college basketball program from last season to the upcoming one—Bleacher Report's Kerry Miller ranked the Badgers at No. 5 in that category—yet it does stand out because of the fact the Badgers don't seem to have the same kind of players waiting to replace those they have lost.
There isn't another Frank Kaminsky ready to step in and be a versatile, inside-out 7-footer, nor is there another eagle-eyed sharpshooter like Sam Dekker. Forward Nigel Hayes and point guard Bronson Koenig are very good players to build around, but that probably won't be enough.
"Even if Nigel Hayes and Bronson Koenig take a big step up to replace Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker, who fills in spots three through seven to help replicate last season's rotation?" Miller wrote.
All statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com. All recruiting information from 247Sports.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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