Surprise Freshmen Who Will Emerge as Legitimate 2016 NBA Draft Prospects
It's typically easy to predict most of the one-and-done NBA prospects. But every year, there are a few who slip under the radar—players who aren't considered obvious future pros in high school and suddenly become must-watch names for scouts in college.
Before last season, you didn't see D'Angelo Russell (No. 2), Devin Booker (No. 13), Rashad Vaughn (No. 17), Chris McCullough (No. 29) or Kevon Looney (No. 30)—five 2015 first-rounders—appear on many October mock draft boards. The same could be said for Zach LaVine (No. 13), James Young (No. 17) and Tyler Ennis (No. 18) the year before.
A few of the following prospects helped themselves over the summer with strong FIBA performances. Another one seems to have bounced back nicely from a serious 2014 injury.
The others either have more upside or NBA-ready skills than initially thought.
With adequate playing time to sell their respective games, the following freshmen could quickly emerge as surprises in the 2016 draft conversation.
Jalen Brunson, Villanova, 6'2", PG
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Fresh off an MVP performance at this summer's FIBA World Championships, Jalen Brunson must now be taken a little more seriously in the NBA draft discussion.
Having averaged 14 points, 5.6 assists and 1.7 turnovers on 44 percent shooting from deep, Brunson's lack of size and explosiveness—which had previously seemed to cloud his upside and potential—wasn't all that restrictive.
He's sharp off the dribble, particularly as a facilitator, but also as a scorer. Brunson has a standout basketball IQ, which plays to his passing and ability to manage an offense. And though not the most athletic, his handle, body control and touch translate to crafty drives, soft floaters, tough finishes and made jumpers.
At Villanova, Brunson should have the chance to play a major role for a potential top-10 team in the nation. And winning as a freshman floor general could certainly help diminish some of the concerns tied to Brunson's physical limitations, just as it did with Syracuse's Tyler Ennis in 2014.
Tyler Dorsey, Oregon, 6'5", SG
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If Tyler Dorsey looks anything like he did during the Under-19 FIBA World Championships, a second year at Oregon might not be necessary.
Playing for Greece over the summer, Dorsey averaged 15.9 points on 55.6 percent shooting (including 11 of 21 from three) through seven games.
He compensates for a lack of standout size with tremendous ball skills, smooth athleticism and a live motor.
Though at his best in the open floor, where he can weave through traffic and glide to the rack, Dorsey has a good-looking handle and jumper, which make him a threat in the half court, both on and off the ball.
His energy and quickness also translate to highlight defensive plays, from chasedown blocks to steals that lead to coast-to-coast fast-break takes.
With Joseph Young out of the picture in Oregon, Dorsey should have a terrific opportunity to showcase his game to NBA scouts. The fact that he'll already be turning 20 years old in February might make the one-and-done route more attractive.
Stephen Zimmerman, UNLV, PF/C, 7'0"
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Stephen Zimmerman's size, skill level and mobility should quickly cause NBA alarms to sound.
He's a terrific run-and-jump athlete for a 7-footer, which will attract attention in itself. But Zimmerman also has a nice lefty touch on the perimeter, as well as the ability to put the ball on the floor and score on the move.
A versatile offensive big, Zimmerman can threaten the defense in a variety of ways, whether it's in transition, behind the arc, facing up or in the post.
Chances are Zimmerman produces right off the bat for UNLV. And though a lack of strength creates the perception he won't be ready in 2016, general managers could consider his long-term upside worth reaching on after just one season.
If he can shoot a decent enough percentage outside without getting exposed as a softie down low, NBA teams are bound to value his stretch 4 and 5 potential.
Ray Smith, Arizona, 6'8", SF
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A consensus top-30 recruit who spent last year recovering from a torn ACL, Ray Smith sounds good to go and ready to make an NBA case.
He went for 22 points and a game-winner in the Southern Nevada Senior All-Star Basketball Game back in May—his first live action since returning from injury.
“This just tells me that no skill, no heart, no perseverance, no attitude, nothing is lost,” Smith told the Las Vegas Review-Journal's Ashton Ferguson. “It was a setback for a major comeback. I really believe that. And I just thank God for everything he’s done for me."
Assuming he gets back his burst, Smith's athleticism and 6'8" size scream potential. You get the impression he could be a jump shot away from really taking off.
Smith isn't known for his shooting touch, but he is for his bounce and activity, which translate to easy above-the-rim buckets off drives, slashes, cuts, putbacks and transition opportunities. He's seemingly always running the floor, filling lanes and making plays off the ball.
Smith also possesses promising defensive tools that could work against 2s, 3s and small-ball 4s.
He might ultimately seem like more of a two-year college player, depending on how big his role is this upcoming season. But if he gets enough minutes and opportunities to sell his two-way potential, it wouldn't be shocking to see general managers chase the upside early.
Dwayne Bacon, Florida State, 6'6", SG
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Dwayne Bacon certainly has the look of an NBA 2-guard with 6'6" size, above-the-rim athleticism and a perimeter attack.
Though his shot selection remains a work in progress, it's tough to argue against his talent, as well as the skill set he's developed.
Bacon is a tough cover in the half court, where he can create off the dribble as a driver, slasher and shooter. He's capable of knocking down tough jumpers with the pull-up and step-back, and he's a threat to blow by and get to the rack.
As Sports Illustrated's Chris Johnson points out, "The 6'6", 210-pound Bacon is viewed as one of the more seasoned prospects in this class in part because of his physicality and age (he turns 20 this month)."
The areas in which he currently struggles are ultimately correctable over time. Bacon needs to improve his shooting consistency and overall energy, but they shouldn't keep NBA scouts from coveting his long-term potential.
Derryck Thornton, Duke, 6'2", PG
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Derryck Thornton should have plenty of eyes watching as Duke's freshman floor general. And though not currently viewed as a consensus 2016 first-round prospect, that could change when scouts get a better look at his floor game and polished scoring attack.
With a tight handle and strong change-of-direction shiftiness, he's tough to stay in front of for opposing defenders. Thornton can get to his spots on the floor and set the table for teammates off the dribble, where his vision and basketball IQ tend to shine.
Thornton also has a knack for taking over stretches, thanks to his ability to create and make shots as a pull-up shooter and driver.
He doesn't jump out of the gym, but Thornton still grades out as a solid athlete who packs enough size, hops and quickness.
We're ultimately bound to hear scouts and media highlight his skills and poise for an 18-year-old freshman. Even if Thornton fails to sell himself as NBA-ready for 2016-17, it doesn't mean general managers won't be willing to prematurely invest.
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