Realistic 2015-16 Expectations for Real Madrid Midfielder Casemiro

It's shaping up to be a breakout season for Casemiro at Real Madrid.

After a year away at Porto in the Primeira Liga, the defensive midfielder returns to a Real Madrid undergoing significant change—a new manager with a distinctly different philosophy to his predecessor looking to address the club's shortcomings of last season. 

Indeed, Rafa Benitez's fondness for systematic organisation and defensive principles should prove beneficial to Casemiro in the upcoming campaign, the new boss likely to use the Brazilian regularly to add steel and power to Los Blancos' central ensemble. 

So what's realistic for Casemiro in 2015-16? How often will we see him play and what influence can he exert?

Below, we take a look. 

Bringing the Missing Quality

From September to December last year, Real Madrid looked on course to challenge the way we view balance across an XI.

With a lineup so astonishingly skewed forward, one featuring essentially six out-and-out attacking talents in front of a back four, Carlo Ancelotti's side stormed to 22 consecutive victories, breaking all sorts of records while challenging conventional wisdom. "Why can't you just attack?" was the question they basically posed. 

From January onward, though, Real got the answer they didn't want, finding out that it's extremely difficult to defy the game's principles.

Without a defensive presence in midfield, Madrid got outmuscled and outfought by fellow heavyweights, the likes of Valencia, Atletico Madrid and Juventus exposing a soft underbelly. That Los Blancos claimed four points from six games against top-four rivals in La Liga last season said it all. 

But Casemiro can address the imbalance. 

Lintao Zhang/Getty Images

A player of genuine strength, positional awareness and combative qualities, the Brazilian will provide precisely what was missing at Real Madrid last season. "I'm back here to be important, to help Madrid and I'm available to the coach, to go out like a bull and fight to help the team," he told Marca this week, via Football Espana. 

To understand what Casemiro will give Real Madrid this season, you only need to examine his statistics at Porto last term. In the Champions League group stage, only Chelsea's Nemanja Matic made more tackles per game (6.5) than Casemiro (5.5), according to WhoScored.com. Across all of his eight games in the continental competition, he also averaged 3.8 interceptions and 2.6 clearances. 

In short, he fights, tackles and gets his hands dirty. He breaks up play.

A New Roadblock

Already this summer, Casemiro has fought past challengers to seemingly rise through Benitez's pecking order in midfield. 

With the point of difference his game brings, the Brazilian now appears to be favoured over Asier Illarramendi as a defensive option. His return from Porto will also force Lucas Silva out, given that he takes the club past the quota for non-EU players. 

As a result, Casemiro looked poised to be Benitez's first-choice reserve in 2015-16, ready to step in for Luka Modric and Toni Kroos regularly. 

But now Casemiro has another challenger: Mateo Kovacic. 

DANI POZO/Getty Images

Having signed for €32 million, the Croatian demands playing time, Benitez likely to be under pressure—whether real or implied—from president Florentino Perez to utilise the expensive signing. It's the same situation at right-back with Danilo.

Kovacic has a far more attacking style than Casemiro but is expected to develop as a deep-lying midfielder, meaning he's now in direct competition with the more physical Brazilian to deputise for Modric and Kroos. 

What's Realistic Then?

In a lot of other teams around Europe, Casemiro would be guaranteed 30-plus starts across a season. But at Real Madrid, such a figure is fanciful. Kroos and Modric remain the first choices in central midfield, and he's fighting with a new and expensive acquisition for the next place in the pecking order. 

Favouring Casemiro, though, is Benitez's love for rotation. The former Napoli boss is a renowned "tinkerman," and there's even a blog post on his personal website explaining the benefits of rotation, delving into fatigue management and running intensity. 

As such, Real Madrid are likely to deviate from Ancelotti's extremely consistent selection policy of last season, Benitez more inclined to use the full depth of the squad. 

Zhong Zhi/Getty Images

Additionally, the new boss is expected to be more conservative against heavyweight opponents, opening the door for the defensive-minded Casemiro to start against sides that have the power to hurt Real's typically attack-heavy midfield. 

Thus, it's reasonable to believe Casemiro could make 15 starts in 2015-16—Illarramendi made 14 last season, but many of them only occurred because of Modric's extended absence through injury—given that Real Madrid will play somewhere between 50-60 games across all competitions. Additionally, he'll regularly be used as a second-half substitute when he doesn't make the starting XI, brought on by Benitez to see out games and protect leads.

And when he does feature, he should go some way to addressing the defensive issues Real Madrid continue to endure.