Frozen Assets: Listen Up If You Want To Win Your Fantasy Hockey Pool

Want to win your hockey pool? Listen up chumps!

Written by: Mark "The Hard Hitter" Ritter

***Previously featured on www.fantasyhockey.com

Fantasy hockey is more than just a game. For some, it is a measure of hockey knowledge: an opportunity to outwit, outsmart and out-draft your opponents.

It is the one time that you have the opportunity to shine by making all hockey decisions yourself. Win and you get all the glory, finish poorly and you will likely be the focus of many a friend’s jokes.

What’s the secret? Organization, my friends. Mark my words, the more organized you are before the draft, the better results you will get.

Let’s look at three of the most popular fantasy hockey pools.

The Salary Cap Pool.
The Multiple Choice/Column Pool.
The Fantasy Hockey Draft Pool.

The Salary Cap Pool

This pool typically involves the commissioner picking a dollar amount, let’s say $60 million. From that $60 million, you must pick 12 forwards (consisting of four centers, four left wingers, four right wingers), six defensemen and two goalies. It is important to take into account what point values are being given for each statistic.

For example, if goals are worth two points, you will need to look for goal scorers; if goals and assists are equal, then you should look for the top point producers. If plus/minus is a factor, then you need to pay particular attention to this statistic, as plus/minus could be a huge upside or downside for a player.

Power play points may also come into play. If the pool you are entering gives bonuses for power play points, you will need to look closely at each player’s totals.

Finally, if shots on goal and penalty minutes are a consideration, you will need to be aware of those totals as well.

As for the goalies? Make sure you know what bonuses are available such as points for shots on goal, shutouts, wins, penalties for losses, and so on. Goalies are typically the most difficult to pick, so I suggest doing a little extra homework here.

So how do you beat the system? Knowledge. If I were to enter a pool where goals were equal to one point, assists were equal to one point, shots on goal were one point, a player’s plus/minus was one point + or -, penalty minutes were one point, and power play points were equal to one bonus point each, I would configure a mathematical equation to figure out a given player’s “raw score.” From this “raw score,” one would be able to determine if the player’s salary was worth his point production.

Taking all this into account, a simple mathematical equation for a player’s “raw score” would be as follows:

Goals + Assists +/- Plus/Minus + PP Points + Shots on Goal + PIMs
 
You take all of those totals, add them up and voila, you get a “raw score”. Let’s look at 12 popular players (6 centers and 6 wingers) and see how last season’s totals measure up. Sorry, you'll have to do the work yourself if you want this season's total's, I can't make it that easy for you to win your pool, now can I?

(W) Alexander Ovechkin- Salary- $3,834,200- Raw Score= 648
(C) Evgeni Malkin- Salary- $3,834,200- Raw Score= 489
(C) Sidney Crosby- Salary- $3,700,000- Raw Score= 308 (53 games)
(W) Ilya Kovalchuk- Salary- $5,500,000- Raw Score= 426
(W) Jarome Iginla- Salary- $7,000,000- Raw Score= 561
(C) Joe Thornton- Salary- $6,670,000- Raw Score= 362
(C) Brad Richards- Salary- $7,800,000- Raw Score= 385
(C) Mats Sundin- Salary- $ 5,500,000- Raw Score= 440
(C) Jason Spezza- Salary- $5,000,000- Raw Score= 405
 (W) Martin St. Louis- Salary- $6,000,000- Raw Score= 337 (-23)
 (W) Dany Heatley- Salary- $5,500,000- Raw Score= 428
 (W) Marian Hossa- Salary- $7,000,000- Raw Score= 385

***All stats from 2007-08 NHL Season***

An impressive list of players who are likely to be on most people’s draft lists. So, how do they measure up? Let’s take a closer look.

As it turns out, Alexander Ovechkin was the biggest bargain with a “raw score” of 648 and a salary of only $3,834,200. Mats Sundin was a bit of a bargain netting a “raw score” of 440 and carrying a salary less than the likes of Dany Heatley, Marian Hossa, Martin St. Louis, Brad Richards and Ilya Kovalchuk, all of whom had less of a “raw score” than Sundin did.

So, what does this tell us? First of all, not all players can be judged by their point totals alone. Shots on goal can be a huge factor, as can plus/minus stats.

On the surface, you may choose a player because you see him at the top of the points list time and time again, but be weary of them as many carry huge salaries weakening your team overall.

“Gucci” players look pretty on your list, but you may find more value in guys like Patrick Sharp, Brendan Morrow, Zach Parise, and Ryan Getzlaf, to name a few. Check out the equation for yourself;  you just might be surprised at these totals.

In order to use this “raw score” as effectively as possible, you will have to look deep into the depth charts. Look for penalty minute leaders. Many defensemen have huge penalty minutes which, when the stats are all equal, could be a deciding factor in who you pick.

Another thing to watch out for is the plus/minus of a player. Look out for players on poor defensive teams; they can cost you heavily if you are not careful, while good defensive clubs often offer up players with great plus/minus stats.

There are many other key factors to consider. For example, check each player’s past three seasons. Are they consistent? Check out the players’ line mates. Has one or more of them moved on?

Will that impact them positively (i.e. more power play time or gaining Marian Hossa as the new winger) or will that impact them negatively (i.e. losing Sidney Crosby as your centre, or a change in philosophy from the coach going to a more defensive style instead of the usual offense-first approach the player’s old coach used).

Other factors include if the player is injury prone, if he is in a contract year (many play better at this time), and how old the player is.

As I mentioned before, goalies are quite complicated. Many statistical categories differ from draft to draft. Just be aware of them, find an equation, and use it to your benefit.

If shots on goal count for a point, make sure you know which goalies get pounded with shots each night. Shutouts differ greatly from season to season. Can Columbus Blue Jackets goaltending sensation Steve Mason repeat his Rookie performance of 2008-09?

Keep in mind the “Gucci” goalie may not net you the best results, so dig deep and find the diamond in the rough. Also, look at goalies who are joining new teams, such as Nikolai Khabibulin. Do you feel his stats will be better in Edmonton than they were in Chicago last season?

Martin Brodeur is “Martin Brodeur,” but are the Devils going to be a contender this year? If not, how will the Devils lackluster play affect Brodeur’s stats? Ask questions, seek answers, and keep an open mind.

Many “ordinary” goalies put up extraordinary statistics. Look at a guy like Niklas Backstrom. He doesn’t get much attention playing in Minnesota, but he has great stats!

It’s a complicated approach, but if you have the means and the time, you will reap the rewards come the end of the pool. Good luck! And, remember, you can NEVER do too much research!

The Multiple Choice/Column Pool

This pool is very popular come playoff time because they make cheap and easy office pools. Essentially five or six players of similar point totals are grouped together, from which you get to pick one. For instance, the first column may look like this:

Sidney Crosby
Alexander Ovechkin
Pavel Datsyuk
Henrik Zetterberg
Joe Thornton
Jarome Iginla

You could make a case for drafting any of these players. If it’s a playoff pool, you will need to consider not only the strength of the player but also the strength of the team the player plays for and the strength of their opponents.

Jarome Iginla is a perennial playoff performer, but if the Calgary Flames are facing the Detroit Red Wings in the first round you will have to weigh Calgary’s chances of going forward. If you feel the Flames will be ousted you are better off picking the likes of Zetterberg or Datsyuk.

Many “poolies” try to pick “Teams” over “Players”. By that, I mean they try to pick as many players from the team they figure to go the furthest in the playoffs. I always like this approach as I feel it offers the best chance to win.

Typically it’s not the aforementioned “Gucci” players that will make the biggest difference in your totals. Most “poolies” will take Datsyuk and/or Crosby.

Using the Pittsburgh Penguins as an example. It’s the depth players that others will overlook such as Bill Guerin, Ruslan Fedotenko, Tyler Kennedy and Chris Letang that can make or break your pool.

Some of these players may be listed amongst those with superior statistics in the regular season, but due to Pittsburgh’s success in the playoffs, many of these players ended up with far superior stats than those listed in their respective brackets.

Again, it’s simple math. The more games you play in, the more chance the player has of racking up points.

Another trick is to look for players that were injured in the regular season and are now in good health. For example, even though he didn't have a great playoff run, the New Jersey Devils' Martin Brodeur was severely undervalued in many columns in the 2008-09 playoff season. If you took him, you got value for your pick, and you had a decent chance of the Devils going deep into the playoffs.

Make sure to consider the players’ teams' past playoff success and failures. Teams like the San Jose Sharks, Columbus Blue Jackets and the St. Louis Blues all had great talent on their rosters but none of them made any noise in the playoffs in 2008-09.

Many times you can find some diamonds in the rough if you carefully calculate the team success or lack thereof.

Nothing is for certain, but when looked at closely, you can see patterns in poor playoff performance weakening players like Iginla and Thornton or a player like Rick Nash. If a player's team performs poorly, chances are the players stats will be minimal.

Goalies can kill you in these pools. Once again, take the team’s success over the goalie’s stats. Statistics are important, but if your goalie is golfing in the second round, he does you no good whatsoever.

Take Steve Mason, for example. Sure he was great in the 2008-09 regular season, but he had a tough playoff, which many pundits predicted Columbus would.

Look for goalies on teams that you feel will make a strong run at the Stanley Cup. Those who took a chance on Pittsburgh Penguins goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury cleaned up last year, as did those who picked Carolina Hurricanes goaltender Cam Ward as their second or third goalie, and, of course, taking Detroit's Chris Osgood netted huge results as well.

Teams like Detroit and Anaheim employed two goalies most of the season, so be aware that if the supposed “number one” has a couple of tough games he could get ousted.

This makes these goalies risky picks (which is why some poolies stayed away from Chris Osgood and Jonas Hiller last season) as your number one guy as they may end up with a seat on the bench. Pick right and you’re “golden,”, pick wrong and you’ve got egg on your face.

One way to get a better idea of which goalies to take is to go through each series and predict a winner; then do the next set of series based on your first round predictions and so on.

Ultimately, after careful consideration, you will be left with two teams: one from the East and one from the West, take those teams' goalies and, barring you made a bad choice, should be "golden."

The goalies on these teams should be the guys you go after. The important thing here is to take the guy with good stats on the team with the most potential to go the distance. Many others will likely draft the same player, but if you neglected to take them the other “poolies” will destroy you!

Most of these pools are very basic, for forwards you get points for goals and assists, that’s all folks! For goalies, you would get two points for a win, minus one for a loss and plus three to five points for a shutout.

Once again, good prognosticating and research during the later rounds will separate you from the pack. At the end of the day, these pools are a bit of a crap shoot. That said, a little luck never hurt anyone, either!

The Fantasy Hockey Draft Pool:

This is the toughest pool to participate in. Not only do you need to do your due diligence with your research, you will also have to follow your opponent’s moves and anticipate a “run” on positional players.

A draft pool often has 12 to 20 participants, each with the task of drafting four centers, four left wingers, four right wingers, six defensemen and two goalies. These numbers fluctuate as per the guidelines set up by the commissioner, so the number of positional players may differ from the above.

That said, the task is daunting as a draft pool typically has a time limit of 1 to 2 minutes per pick and may involve a “snake” rule which can complicate matters for you.

The “snake” rule means poolies 1 to 12 pick, then number 12 picks again with the descending poolies picking thereafter. This means if you pick number one overall your next pick will be at number 24. That’s a long time to wait for your second overall pick!

How do you get ahead? First, you must take into account what value each statistic holds. If the values are all equal you can once again use the formula listed above for the “column” draft, if not adjust accordingly.

Keep in mind that salary considerations will not affect your picks, so it is not necessary to be weary of them. At first glance this makes things a little easier, but it can also have the opposite effect as many poolies will target big ticket players to fill out their rosters.

Keep in mind that a big salary does not necessarily translate to big pool numbers. Use the formula to your advantage and you can find some diamonds in the rough.

It is usually a good idea to list all of your picks so you know where you’ll be picking. This makes the process faster and enables you to anticipate where you feel players will be picked.

I typically list 50 wingers, 30 centres, 30 defensemen, and all goalies in descending values. Once a player is picked make sure to cross him off your list. This will stop you from picking players that have already been taken and should make the best remaining players on your list stand out.

It is also recommended that you have a plan. By that I mean look at the overall player list and know where the deepest positions are. If there is not a big difference between the tenth and the twentieth ranked right winger, then you can usually lay off those picks instead focusing on drafting left wingers or centres early on.

Watch out for “runs” on positions. For example, I have always noticed that a little light bulb seems to go off once somebody starts drafting goalies.

Keep to your plan: don’t draft a goalie if you feel there are more valuable players at other positions still on the table. It’s a tough call, but if you keep reacting to your opponents moves you will find you lose out on numerous key positional players, thus weakening your overall team.

One other idea is to make a list from 1 to 20 representing each one of your picks by putting a position beside each and try to draft said position in that spot. This is another method to help keep you organized in this fast-paced environment.

I like to look at each position separately and see which ones are the weakest. If you draft those first you can get a leg up on the competition.

Have a backup plan. Too often we fall in love with a particular player and watch as he is drafted by a competitor. Once you are within 4 to 5 picks from making your next selection try to have 3 to 4 players in mind that you’d like to select. Once again, this keeps things moving and allows you to make a more informed decision as opposed to making a hasty pick that you’ll regret.

Always take into consideration that last year’s statistics may not fairly represent what that player is capable of putting up this year. Dallas Stars star forward Brenden Morrow was injured for a good part of last season, so his numbers were way down. As such, one can safely guess that Morrow’s numbers should be considerably better this year.

On the other hand, there may be a player or two that put up good numbers last season but due to off-season moves may now be in a weakened position which may constitute a reduction in points for the coming season.

Free agency, trades, a coaching change, a change in philosophy (Will the Minnesota Wild follow through on their promise to play a more offensive game?- Does this increase the value of Mikko Koivu?) and retirement of a linemate are all issues that deserve a look before you consider a players value going forward.

Most of all, and this applies to all of these pools, don’t take them too seriously. Have some fun with it, remember, when everything is said and done it’s nice to win but the “experience” and banter should be reward enough.

Fantasy hockey is a great way to follow the game a little closer, get to know various players from other teams, and find a way to connect with fellow hockey fans.

Once again, good luck with your picks and enjoy the season!

Until next time,

Peace!