NASCAR Sprint Cup: Complete Preview, Prediction for Pure Michigan 400
Kyle Busch is now in the top-30, which means he’s eligible for the upcoming Chase for the Sprint Cup.
It was a long and arduous road, but the younger Busch brother broke through at Watkins Glen and has now fulfilled the main requirements to obtain a waiver from NASCAR to make the Chase:
He’s won at least one race (actually, it’s at four now) and he’s in the top-30.
But the question is whether Busch will remain in the top-30, particularly following the final Chase qualifying race at Richmond in three weeks.
Granted, if he can add to his wins total, perhaps with a victory Sunday at Michigan, it would only help to pad Busch’s margin of remaining in the Chase hunt.
For now, let’s toast Busch for what he’s achieved thus far—and what he potentially may go on to accomplish even further from this point on.
By the Numbers: Michigan International Speedway
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PURE MICHIGAN 400
Place: Michigan International Speedway
Date: Sunday, Aug. 16
Time: 2:30 p.m. (ET)
TV: NBCSN, 1 p.m. (ET)
Radio: Motor Racing Network, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio
Distance: 200 laps, 400 miles (2-mile speedway)
Defending winner: Jeff Gordon
Youngest winner: Joey Logano on August 18, 2013 (23 years, 2 months, 25 days).
Oldest winner: Harry Gant on August 16, 1992 (52 years, 7 months, 6 days).
Youngest pole winner: Joey Logano on August 18, 2013 (23 years, 2 months, 25 days).
Oldest pole winner: Mark Martin on August 19, 2012 (53 years, 7 months, 10 day).
Most wins: David Pearson (9); active—Greg Biffle (4)
Most poles: David Pearson (10); active—Jeff Gordon (6)
Most top-fives: Cale Yarborough (21); active—Jeff Gordon (19)
Most top-10s: Mark Martin (31); active—Jeff Gordon (27)
Lead lap finishes: Mark Martin (37); active—Jeff Gordon (34)
Laps completed: Bill Elliott (11,212); active—Michael Waltrip (9,153)
Laps led: Cale Yarborough (1,308); active—Jeff Gordon (1,058)
Most race starts at Michigan: Bill Elliott (61); active—Michael Waltrip (49)
Race record: Dale Jarrett (173.997 mph) on June 13, 1999
Qualifying record: Jeff Gordon (206.558 mph) on August 17, 2014
Best average start: Bobby Isaac (3.125); active—Jimmie Johnson (9.556)
Best average finish: Cale Yarborough (9.611); active—Carl Edwards (9.818)
TRACK NOTES:
* Total number of races at Michigan: 92.
* Total number of different pole winners in Michigan history: 46
* Races won from pole: 18
* Last race won from pole: Jeff Gordon on August 17, 2014
* Number of race winners at Michigan: 46
* DNFs (most): Dave Marcis (21); active – Joe Nemechek (15)
* DNFs (least): Greg Biffle (0 in 25 starts)
Statistical information provided by NASCAR Media Relations
Key Storylines
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Is this finally Jeff Gordon’s breakthrough race?
Jeff Gordon won this race a year ago, his second-to-last win to date (he also won at Dover in the Chase). Gordon also set a NASCAR qualifying record for all tracks with a field-setting speed of 206.558 mph. Don’t be surprised to see that mark fall in this weekend’s qualifying. Gordon is still seeking his first win of the season; MIS could be the best place for him to earn it.
Kyle Busch is now in the top 30. Now what?
Kyle Busch has been on an outstanding run since returning from the broken right leg and fractured left foot he suffered in Daytona in February. After 11 races, Busch finally made it back to the top-30 and finds himself Chase-eligible. Can he keep himself in the top-30 in the next four races? One or two bad races could be a significant setback. It should be interesting to see if Busch continues to drive the way he always has, or does he drive with more of a cautionary style in the next four races to assure he indeed makes the Chase?
Can Tony Stewart finally break through at Michigan?
Yes, we’ve been asking that same question at pretty much every track for the last several weeks. But Stewart has shown increased success in both practice and qualifying during that time, particularly qualifying third at Watkins Glen last week (even though he finished last). Michigan has long been one of Stewart’s best tracks: In 31 starts, he has one win, 12 top-five and 20 top-10 finishes. He knows time is running short for him to make the Chase. He needs a win in the next four races. If he can pull it off at Michigan, it would take a huge weight off his shoulders.
Can Greg Biffle reprise some of that old Roush Fenway magic?
Few would probably guess that Greg Biffle is the winningest Sprint Cup driver in MIS history (four wins, as well as 10 top-five and 15 top-10 finishes in 25 career starts). But since winning back-to-back races in August 2012 and June 2013, Biffle has struggled at MIS. Given that he’s 18th in the standings, Biffle is on the outside looking in when it comes to making the Chase. But all he needs is to earn one checkered flag and he’ll make the Chase. Of course, Roush Fenway Racing has struggled all season long collectively. Can Biffle break out and return Ford’s dominance to MIS? We’ll find out Sunday.
Will Michigan’s need for speed continue:
Over the last few years, Michigan has overtaken a number of other Sprint Cup venues to become the fastest track on the circuit. It’s passed by Atlanta and Texas, which had been the fastest tracks for at least a decade before that. The repaving of MIS four years ago did wonders for the surface, and the speeds have continued to dramatically climb. Jeff Gordon set the qualifying record (206.558 mph). Don’t be surprised to see that mark fall once again, perhaps even passing 208 mph, in qualifying this weekend. What’s more, if there aren’t many cautions, we may see drivers challenge the overall speed record for a race at MIS (173.997 mph), set by Dale Jarrett in 1999.
Drivers to Watch
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Kevin Harvick: It goes without saying that Harvick is a driver to watch in pretty much any race from here on out as he mounts his bid to win a second consecutive championship. Harvick has had mixed results at Michigan, with one win, seven top-five and 12 top-10 finishes in 29 starts there. What he needs is another win or two in the next four races, which would further enhance his position when the points are reset for the start of the Chase.
Greg Biffle
We’re only putting Biffle in this category because of his past track record at Michigan. He leads all drivers with four career wins on the two-mile oval. He desperately needs a win to reach the Chase. Otherwise, he’ll ultimately miss the Chase for the first time since 2011 and for only the second time since 2007. One other thing to note: Biffle has not won a race since 2013. If anyone is overdue, it’s the driver of the No. 16 Ford.
Michigan has proven to be one of Junior’s best tracks. It’s where he snapped the two longest losing streaks of his career. He likes its high speed, it’s wide track and multiple grooves and serves as a great warmup for one of his favorite tracks one week later: Bristol (where ironically enough he has won just once in his career). Much like Kevin Harvick, Earnhardt could use a few more wins between now and the start of the Chase to enhance his seeding when the points are reset. A win at Michigan is a definite possibility if he stays out of trouble. Also, don’t overlook his recent run there: In his last three starts, Earnhardt has finished seventh and fifth (both in 2014) and second (June).
Kurt Busch
The elder Busch brother won the most recent Sprint Cup race at Michigan in June. Like most drivers who come to the Irish Hills, Busch likes Michigan’s wide racing channel, multiple grooves and, let’s not forget, the speed. Racing at Michigan is kind of what you would see at Daytona or Talladega if restrictor plates were removed. Busch needs some momentum heading into the Chase, and a win at Michigan or two weeks from now at Darlington, where he also does well, would definitely help that.
Tony Stewart
For what seemed like the longest time, Stewart’s season would not really get started until the mid-June race at Michigan, a trend that continued for several years. Stewart struggled in June (finished 28th), after earning top-10 finishes in seven of his last 11 starts there. This is a must-win race for Stewart, no doubt about it. He doesn’t want to go to Bristol still hoping to make the Chase. He has to win now or his last real good chance to make the Chase may ultimately end.
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Favorites
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Kyle Busch
After making it into the top-30 (the demarcation line to be eligible for the Chase), Kyle Busch has to maintain his position, if not try to improve it somewhat. Busch needs to be somewhat conservative and not over-aggressive in the next four races to assure he doesn’t drop out of the top-30 and, ultimately, the Chase. But at the same time, if he can steal a win or two more before the Chase begins, it likely would put him at the top of the heap when the Chase actually starts.
Carl Edwards
Edwards has the best average finish of all active Sprint Cup drivers at Michigan. Granted, much of his success came while he drove a Ford for Roush Fenway Racing. He finished 12th at MIS in his first run there since joining Joe Gibbs Racing and driving a Toyota. Can he channel some of his past success with a Ford and transfer it to Toyota on Sunday?
Jeff Gordon
The reigning pole record holder at MIS, Gordon has always enjoyed racing there, even though the speeds have gotten a bit into the scary zone in recent years. Gordon is still in a precarious position when it comes to the Chase, not having a win in 2015. But, he still is in a decent position in the points and likely will make the playoffs in his final season as a Sprint Cup driver. The question is does Gordon cast everything to the wind and go for the win at the same place he won last August, or does he play it safe and hope consistency (i.e., top fives and top 10s) will carry him into the Chase?
Brad Keselowski
The 2012 Sprint Cup champ grew up only about 80 miles away from MIS and has spent countless time there. But he still has yet to win a Sprint Cup race there. In fact, his record at MIS is marginal at best: 12 starts, no wins, three top-fives and just two other top-10s. Is this the year he finally reaches Victory Lane?
Joey Logano
After sweeping both the Sprint Cup and Xfinity races last weekend at Watkins Glen, Logano is once again playing with a hot hand. And a return visit to Michigan is definitely in his favor. Not only is he a former holder of the qualifying record there (since surpassed by first Marcos Ambrose and then Jeff Gordon), he has one win, three top-five and eight top-10 finishes in 13 starts there. Logano would love to get his third win of the season at MIS, which was built by team owner Roger Penske back in the late 1960s.
Dark Horse Pick: Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
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Don’t laugh. Don’t think I’ve lost it.
But I seriously think Ricky Stenhouse Jr. can be a factor in Sunday’s race.
First, he comes from Roush Fenway Racing, which has a long history of winning at Michigan.
Second, Stenhouse is in the final year of his contract, and team owner Jack Roush has already been dropping hints that he may look to promote Chris Buescher from the Xfinity Series to the Sprint Cup Series.
The only way that happens is if Roush starts a fourth team, or he lets Stenhouse go. If that isn’t enough motivation to turn things around after an abysmal season for the driver of the No. 17, nothing is.
And the Winner Is: Jimmie Johnson
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It used to be that Jimmie Johnson couldn’t buy a win at MIS.
Sure, he came close a number of times, but never was able to reach Victory Lane, much to his chagrin. He finally came through in June 2014, but went right back to his old ways in the August 2014 race (finished ninth) and June 2015 race (finished 19th).
Even though he has four wins this season, tying him with Kyle Busch for most of any driver, Johnson has been flying under the radar far too much over the last several weeks.
He needs a statement race to prepare him for the Chase—and potentially give him the edge when the points are reset after Richmond—and Sunday could very well be that day.
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