2015 NASCAR Sprint Cup Stock Watch: Week 23
Kyle Busch has finally climbed into the top 30 in the Sprint Cup points standings, making him eligible to enter the Chase for the Sprint Cup.
It’s been an outstanding achievement, considering he missed the first 11 races due to injuries.
But it’s also one that is still risky somewhat. He has to remain in the top 30. Or, at the very least, he must be 30th or higher following the final Chase-qualifying race at Richmond a month from now.
If Busch winds up being just one point out of 30th after Richmond, his Chase hopes will be over.
Let’s see where Busch and others rank in this week’s Stock Watch.
Kasey Kahne
1 of 10
After back-to-back DNFs, Kasey Kahne has slid off and out of the Chase bubble. If the playoffs were to start today, he would not make it—plain and simple.
He dropped three places in the standings after this past Sunday’s race at Watkins Glen, the equivalency of an earthquake that shook his Chase hopes to the core.
Sure, Kahne can still get back into the Chase, but it’s not going to be easy. Heading into the race at Michigan this weekend, Kahne is 28 points behind 15th-ranked Carl Edwards, who holds down the 16th and final spot on the Chase grid.
Kahne has four races remaining—Michigan, Bristol, Darlington and Richmond—to make the Chase. But at this juncture, the only way he’ll be able to do so is with a win. Anything less will likely prove to be a fail.
Verdict: It may be time to dump his stock and be happy to get what you can, even if it’s pennies on the dollar.
Aric Almirola
2 of 10
If Kyle Busch didn’t jump into the Chase grid after Sunday’s race at Watkins Glen, Aric Almirola would have been on the inside of the bubble.
But with Busch now in the top 30, Almirola is in the same boat as Kasey Kahne: on the outside looking in.
Almirola is ranked 16th in the standings, but he’s now one spot out with Busch making it in.
For some reason, however, we have a hunch that Almirola may still make the Chase. He has four races remaining to do so.
The key is to do well on short tracks such as Bristol and Richmond, which are his strength. If he can manage at least two top-10 finishes (three would be even better), he may still be able to make the Chase.
Verdict: Hold—but only through Bristol. If he has poor finishes at Michigan and Bristol, that’s it...cash in the chips.
Jeff Gordon
3 of 10
Really, I mean REALLY, could anyone have envisioned Jeff Gordon's struggles in his final Sprint Cup season?
If you would have asked me before the season where Gordon would be in the standings after the first 22 races, I would have said maybe second or third place—and surely with maybe two or three wins by now.
Unfortunately, Gordon sits in 12th position heading into Sunday’s race at Michigan.
While it’s still likely that he’ll make the Chase for the Sprint Cup—unless he completely tanks in the four remaining regular-season races—Gordon is a likely target to not make it out of the Chase's first round.
But I keep holding on to a hope. In 2011, Tony Stewart failed to win any races in the regular season and then went on a tear, winning five in the Chase, and ultimately the championship.
Could Gordon have something similar like that happen to him? Sure, after all he is a four-time Sprint Cup champ. All he needs is for other drivers to stop running into him, as has happened too many times to count this season.
Verdict: I’d still hold on to a few shares of Gordon stock instead of liquidating everything. The reason: If he gets hot, his value will soar pretty fast, and you want to be there to cash in if that happens.
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AJ Allmendinger
4 of 10
This past Sunday’s race at Watkins Glen had AJ Allmendinger’s name written all over it.
He was the overwhelming favorite to win, based upon his incredible battle with and win over Marcos Ambrose there last year.
Unfortunately, Allmendinger may have kissed his Chase hopes away for good after struggling throughout Sunday’s race.
With four regular-season races left—Michigan, Bristol, Darlington and Richmond—Allmendinger has an uphill climb that makes climbing Mount Everest look like a walk in the park.
If there is one place I think Allmendinger has the best chance to win, it’s Darlington. Call it a gut feeling. But at the other three tracks, unfortunately, I don’t see him being any better than an also-ran.
Verdict: As much as it pains me to say it, dump his stock. His Chase chances are all but done.
Kevin Harvick
5 of 10
Defending Sprint Cup champ Kevin Harvick is peaking at the right time—heading into the Chase five weeks from now.
Harvick is following almost the same exact strategy and playbook that he used to win his first career Cup crown in 2014.
I won’t be surprised to see Harvick win one, maybe even two of the remaining four regular-season races.
If he does that, he will go into the Chase with a head of steam that likely will prove unstoppable, much like he did last season.
Verdict: Buy, buy, buy. And then buy some more.
Roush Fenway Racing
6 of 10
The two Team Penske drivers—Joey Logano and 2012 Sprint Cup champ Brad Keselowski—are locks to not only make the Chase but to also potentially make it all the way to the final round in the season-ending race at Homestead.
Logano did just that last year. And had it not been for a bad pit stop late in last year’s championship-deciding race, he likely wouldn’t have finished fourth.
But Ford’s other supposedly marquee team, Roush Fenway Racing, potentially may not have any representatives in the Chase. Pity poor Jack Roush.
That would not be embarrassing, it would further illustrate the decline that RFR has experienced over the last three seasons.
There was so much optimism heading into 2015 that things would turn around. Unfortunately, this could be the worst season yet for RFR.
Greg Biffle is 18th, while Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is 27th and Trevor Bayne is 28th.
With the way the entire team has been running this season, Biffle is likely the only driver who even has an outside shot at winning one of the last four races to make the Chase.
He has won several times at Michigan, but will RFR give him a car cable enough to win at NASCAR’s fastest non-restrictor-plate track?
Verdict: Run, don’t walk, and get rid of any interest you have in RFR. They’re only going to wind up breaking your heart—not to mention your wallet.
Kyle Busch
7 of 10
Kyle Busch has done a remarkable job coming back from his broken right leg and fractured left foot.
But it’s not just his recovery that’s been big news, it’s how he has finally cracked the top 30 in the Sprint Cup points standings, making him eligible for the Chase.
However, there’s a big "if" with that: Busch cannot let himself have even one bad day in the remaining four races, lest he falls back below the 30th-place demarcation line and all his hard work to make the Chase would suddenly dissolve.
There’s no way Busch can guarantee he’ll make the Chase—or is there? At this juncture, he really doesn’t need any more wins before the Chase begins. He already has four, which ties him with Jimmie Johnson for most victories by a single driver this season.
Rather, Busch needs to spend the next four races staying out of trouble and, more importantly, remaining consistent. Sure, he thrives on wins, but given how close he is to being on either side of 30th place in the standings, what he needs to do is worry more about top fives and top 10s in the next four races.
Then, when the Chase begins, he can go back for the jugular and try to become the first man in NASCAR history to win all 10 Chase races.
Verdict: While there is the concern that he could still fall out of the top 30, this is still a good bet. My advice? Buy, buy and buy some more.
Martin Truex Jr.
8 of 10
Martin Truex Jr. has had a career season—and there’s still 14 more races to go, including the 10-race Chase.
Truex has proven he belongs among NASCAR’s top drivers, and the fact he drives for a single-car team only further illustrates all the hard work he and his team have done to get him where he is.
In a way, we envision Truex somewhat as last year’s Denny Hamlin. We can easily see him reaching the final championship-deciding round.
But, he has to get some of the inconsistency he’s experienced in the last several races out of his system and mount a championship run on that same kind of consistency.
Truex has the capability to win two, maybe even three, races in the Chase. But at the same time, consistency will ultimately take him further in the long run.
Verdict: Hold/Buy. Either way, you can’t go wrong.
Jimmie Johnson
9 of 10
Jimmie Johnson has been so quiet of late and so far under the radar that it’s hard to believe he still has four wins thus far this season—most coming in the early parts of the first half of the 36-race schedule.
Why is Johnson being so quiet? It’s really nothing new. He’s played the quiet game several times in the years he ultimately went on to win one of his six Sprint Cup championships to date.
The main thing is, Johnson is setting an example that all other Chase-eligible drivers should follow: He’s got at least one win (or in his case, four wins) out of the way, he’s locked into the Chase and he’s been able to experiment with things while still maintaining consistency.
That’s why Johnson is fourth in the standings heading into Michigan. I don’t expect him to have any major wins or any outstanding runs between now and Richmond.
The main thing is just to start off the first Chase race at Chicagoland at the top of the seedings—and then let everyone else chase him.
Verdict: Buy, buy and buy some more. His stock is on the verge of exploding for the good.
Clint Bowyer
10 of 10
Right now, Clint Bowyer is in the Chase. He’s 14th in the points standings, which makes him 16th in the Chase grid.
The reason is simple: While Bowyer is ahead of both Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards in the Cup standings, he’s behind both of them on the grid.
Right now, Bowyer has a 50-point edge over the next-closest driver who could knock him out of the grid—and, ergo, out of the Chase.
Don’t forget Bowyer looked like a for-sure lock to make last year’s Chase, only to dramatically be eliminated in the final pre-Chase qualifying race at Richmond.
Bowyer is Michael Waltrip Racing’s only real chance of making the Chase. That’s not a slight against teammate David Ragan. But Bowyer is in a much-better situation to make the Chase than Ragan.
Verdict: Hold. But at the first sign of a significant slump, sell, sell, sell.
Follow @JerryBonkowski
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