Christian McCaffrey and the Easiest NFL Stars to Fade This Season

The NFL has plenty of star players, but not all of them are going to shine during the 2026 season. There are several big-name talents who are already sticking out for their chances of backsliding during the upcoming campaign.

Whether they switched teams via trade or free agency, were impacted by a regime change, suffered a major injury or simply had an unsustainably great stretch of play last year, certain players appear due for a regression in 2026.

Regardless of whether you are gearing up for a fantasy draft or betting on props or futures, it would be wise to fade the following five players this season.

Fantasy points, average draft position (ADP) and other fantasy data courtesy of FantasyPros using PPR metrics.

QB Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders

AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez

Jayden Daniels was a league-winning pickup during his breakout rookie year in 2024, but a litany of injuries led the Washington Commanders quarterback to become one of the game's biggest busts last season.

Daniels went from the QB5 who tallied a fantastic 364.8 fantasy points on his way to winning Offensive Rookie of the Year honors all the way down to the QB34, totaling just 117.3 points in the seven games he managed to suit up for last year.

While the lack of starts was clearly the main reason for Daniels' disappointing Year 2 effort, he wasn't nearly as effective when he was on the field. The signal-caller's per-game average dipped nearly five points, plummeting from 21.5 as a rookie to 16.8 as a sophomore.

Defenses appeared to have figured out the young passer and forced him into a sophomore slump. With Daniels' completion rate, touchdown percentage and yards per passing attempt all taking noticeable hits in 2025, it's tough to buy the quarterback bouncing back to his first-year production level.

The Commanders didn't add too many weapons for Daniels during the offseason either. Their biggest skill position pickups include third-round rookie wideout Antonio Williams and veteran free-agent tight end Chig Okonkwo, but neither player profiles as a game-changer who will make life significantly easier for their quarterback.

Terry McLaurin is the lone elite playmaker in Washington's offense, but the aging vet is coming off an injury-marred season of his own and may not be as effective as he was during his Pro Bowl-level 2024 campaign.

Despite this, Daniels is currently being selected as the QB5 with an ADP of 64.5. It's a massive risk to take him at that point of a fantasy draft, as managers will need him to repeat his rookie successes to live up to the pick range.

Given his health concerns and regression last year, it would be a bit of a gamble to take Daniels in the QB8-10 range. Selecting him as a QB5 is far too great a risk, making him an easy fade this year.

RB De'Von Achane, Miami Dolphins

AP Photo/Doug Murray

De'Von Achane has been fantasy royalty ever since the Miami Dolphins running back burst out with a historic 51.3-point effort in only the second game of his NFL career.

The 24-year-old has got better each season, advancing from contributing 190.7 points as a rookie to a career-best 322.8 points last year.

While Achane again outperformed preseason projections—finishing 2025 as fantasy's RB5 after going into the year as a consensus RB7 taken in the second round of most drafts—his upward trajectory is likely coming to a screeching halt in 2026.

The situation in South Beach is looking extremely dire following last season's 7-10 finish. That disappointing result prompted sweeping changes to the organization, including the dismissal of renowned offensive mind Mike McDaniel from his head coaching post and the release of longtime quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.

The Dolphins are trending towards a full-blown rebuild under new head coach Jeff Hafley. The former Green Bay Packers defensive coordinator will have his work cut out as he tries to maximize the limited talents of the squad's depleted roster in his first year.

While Achane has been a reliable weapon for Miami, the rest of the offense currently has more questions than answers surrounding it.

The biggest wild card is Malik Willis, the team's marquee free-agent acquisition. He is set to get his first chance to be a full-time starter following a disappointing stint with the Tennessee Titans and a much better showing—albeit in very limited action—during a rejuvenating two seasons in Titletown.

If Willis regresses back to his Titans form (the quarterback only completed 53 percent of his throws and had three interceptions with no touchdowns during his time with the club), the Dolphins' offense will be hopeless. The team doesn't have a viable alternative to hand the keys to in that scenario, with seventh-round sophomore Quinn Ewers set to be the primary backup QB following an ineffective first NFL season.

Factor in the departures of top wideouts Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill—who were replaced by clear veteran downgrades in Jalen Tolbert and Tutu Atwell—and there simply is not enough talent in place to stop opposing defenses from keying in on Achane.

Expect a regression, potentially a significant one, from a player being taken as the RB9 with an ADP of 15.

RB Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers

AP Photo/Zach Bolinger

Christian McCaffrey may have been last year's top-scoring fantasy player and a lock to come off the board in the early portion of Round 1 this season, but managers should be wary of selecting the San Francisco 49ers star near his current ADP of 6.0.

While that draft position would represent a massive bargain if he can replicate the incredible 416.6 points he posted in 2025, the four-time Pro Bowler has an unfortunate history of missing significant time following high-usage campaigns.

After leading the league in touches, yards from scrimmage and touchdowns during a monster 2019 season with the Carolina Panthers, McCaffrey was only able to participate in three contests the next year.

He wouldn't pace the NFL in those categories again until 2023, amassing a herculean 391.3 fantasy points during his first full season with the 49ers. Although he cemented himself as the consensus No. 1 fantasy draft pick in 2024, injuries led to him having a massively disappointing season in which he saw action in just four games.

McCaffrey recovered and returned to form last season, eclipsing 2,000 yards from scrimmage for the third time in an illustrious nine-year career. It took him a career-high 413 carries across all 17 games to get there, however, and that heavy lift could return to haunt the superstar back.

With McCaffrey now 30 years old and having accumulated a ton of mileage over the past decade—he's racked up nearly 2,300 touches since entering the league—it would be more surprising if the back didn't sit out multiple games in 2026.

While the Niners don't have much depth behind McCaffrey—rookie Kaelon Black, sophomore Jordan James and third-year vet Isaac Guerendo are set to contest for their platoon roles in training camp—they may be forced to push their untested youngsters into the fire if McCaffrey isn't able to hold up.

Ideally, 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan would find a way to lighten McCaffrey's load and give him some much-needed rest, keeping him fresh for the long grind back to a Super Bowl.

History has shown the coach will again lean too heavily on his most versatile weapon, though, and that type of usage could result in another fantasy season-destroying injury.

WR Davante Adams, Los Angeles Rams

AP Photo/Rick Scuteri

Davante Adams has been one of the best and most consistent receivers of his generation, but even his star has begun to fade after 12 seasons in the NFL.

The six-time Pro Bowler managed to outperform expectations in 2025—his first year in the explosive Los Angeles Rams offense—but it will be difficult for the wideout to keep that torrid pace.

Adams came into last season as the WR18 and finished as the WR9, but quite a few things broke in his favor to set up that 222.9-point effort.

A sizable chunk of his fantasy production came via the league-leading 14 receiving touchdowns he hauled in. It represented the second highest TD total of Adams' career and most since 2022—the last of his six consecutive Pro Bowl campaigns. He managed this incredible scoring tally despite reeling in just 60 catches for 789 yards, his lowest marks in a decade.

While the Fresno State product can still contribute at a high level, the Rams' Matt Stafford-led passing attack will remain centered around Puka Nacua in 2026.  It's worth noting Adams' most prolific outing of last season—a three-touchdown explosion against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 7—occurred while his fellow star wideout was sidelined with injury.

Adams' 114 targets in 2025 were well ahead of the 56 that third-place Colby Parkinson earned but still far behind the team-high 166 looks that Nacua garnered.

Adams will have to fight to keep his place in the pecking order, a task that has grown more difficult after Max Klare and CJ Daniels were drafted into an already-crowded group of veteran pass-catchers.

Fantasy managers are predicting a slight dip in production this year, indicated by Adams' WR23 status and ADP of 49. While that's a reasonable outlook, there is a chance the wideout falls off a cliff in 2026.

Adams is gearing up for his age-34 season—well past the point where most modern wideouts begin to significantly regress—and is highly unlikely to score touchdowns at anywhere near the same rate as last year.

Given his diminishing athleticism and role in L.A.'s system—along with a pedestrian 9.3 PPG average in the seven games he failed to score last year—Adams could be closer to the WR50 than WR25 this year.

TE Harold Fannin Jr., Cleveland Browns

AP Photo/Adam Hunger

Harold Fannin Jr. was one of the biggest breakout stars of the 2025 NFL season. The unheralded rookie emerged as the go-to weapon in the Cleveland Browns' passing attack, finishing the year with 731 receiving yards and six touchdowns on 72 receptions.

While Fannin posted 186.4 fantasy points and a TE6 finish, it won't be easy for him to put up similarly strong numbers this coming season.

Working against Fannin is a regime change spurred on by the team's unsightly 5-12 finish. The Browns offense will look far different in 2026 with former Baltimore Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken now at the helm.

Fannin's team-high 107 targets are almost guaranteed to come down after Cleveland used several premium picks to bolster its receiving corps during Monken's first draft. Rookies KC Concepion and Denzel Boston are joining a receiver's room that already included veterans Jerry Jeudy and Cedric Tillman, giving the Browns far more mouths to feed this season than last.

A schematic change is also in the works, one that could see Fannin lose his starring role in the offense. While Monken has historically leveraged 12 and 13 personnel—meaning two or three tight ends on the field, respectively—neither Mark Andrews nor Isaiah Likely (Baltimore's top TEs during Monken's three seasons as OC) managed to eclipse 700 receiving yards or 60 catches under his watch.

Cleveland also prioritized adding more depth to the tight ends room during the 2026 NFL draft, bringing Joe Royer and Carsen Ryan to compete with veterans Blake Whiteheart and Jack Stoll for reps. These first-year talents may eat into Fannin's 76 percent offensive snap rate, a snap share that could dip into the high-50s, low-60s range that Andrews and Likely logged over the past couple seasons.

While Fannin defied expectations in 2025, he's going into 2026 as the TE6 with an ADP of 88. Given Cleveland is likely to run the ball more and opt to spread things around when passes are dialed up, Fannin could slide to the bottom end of the TE1 range.