One X-Factor That Can Significantly Impact Each NFL Division Race in 2026

NFL teams can change the complexion of a division title race with one roster acquisition or coaching hire, though, in some cases, player development will be the key for clubs to move up in the standings.

Last offseason, the Seattle Seahawks, Chicago Bears, New England Patriots and Jacksonville Jaguars were long shots to win their respective divisions. 

All four teams either brought in new coaching staffs and/or signed key free agents to fuel a run to the playoffs.

With OTAs underway, let's take a look at the biggest X-factor that will impact battles for each division crown in the upcoming campaign.

All of these considerations are reasons that a team can become a division winner or fall behind its rivals.

AFC East: Patriots Possibly Trading for WR A.J. Brown

AP Photo/Terrance Williams

Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown

ESPN's Adam Schefter stood firm on the belief that the New England Patriots will acquire A.J. Brown from the Philadelphia Eagles.

Rather than act hastily to trade Brown, who's been frustrated with his role in the offense, the Eagles will likely wait until after June 1, which would save them $7 million in cap space while incurring $16.4 million in dead cap. If Philadelphia moves him now, it would take on a whopping $43.4 million dead cap hit.

Although the Patriots seem like the favorites to acquire Brown, the Eagles have leverage. 

If New England doesn't offer the best trade package for Brown, general manager Howie Roseman can send him elsewhere. 

According to The NFL Network's Mike Garafolo (h/t NFL.com's Kevin Patra), the Eagles want a "Quinnen Williams-type deal" for the star receiver, which is more than a first-round pick.

Brown could certainly help the Patriots retain the AFC East division title. Entering his age-29 term, he's still a top-tier pass-catcher, racking up 1,000-plus receiving yards and at least seven touchdowns in four consecutive seasons.

However, the Patriots' current receiver corps is mediocre at best.

Before free agency, New England released Stefon Diggs, who led the team in receptions (85) and receiving yards (1,013) by a wide margin last year. While Romeo Doubs is a solid addition, he's yet to see a high volume of targets in a lead role.

Kayshon Boutte is an ascending talent with a lot of room to grow, though he's still a complementary receiver. Kyle Williams, a third-rounder from last year's draft, only caught 10 passes for 209 yards and three touchdowns last season. Mack Hollins will turn 33 in September.

Although quarterback Drake Maye made an impressive second-year leap, he needs a reliable high-end pass-catcher to threaten opposing defenses through the air.

If the Patriots don't make a move for Brown or a top-flight receiver, the Buffalo Bills will be back on top of the AFC East in 2026.

AFC North: Bengals' Much-Improved Defense

AP Photo/Jeff Dean

Dexter Lawrence II (left) and Jonathan Allen

We know what Joe Burrow can do when he's healthy, throwing to perimeter playmakers, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Co. 

However, even with Burrow on the field for 17 games and leading the league with 4,918 passing yards and 43 touchdown passes in 2024, Cincinnati missed the playoffs and finished third in the AFC North with a 9-8 record.

Based on points and yards allowed, the Bengals' defense has been below average, ranking 21st or worse in both categories for three consecutive years.

When Cincinnati won the AFC North in 2022, it had the sixth-ranked scoring defense and finished seventh in rushing yards allowed.

This year, the Bengals defense should be stingier than in years past.

Cincinnati lost edge-rusher Trey Hendrickson in free agency, but the club signed Boye Maye and selected Cashius Howell to fill a void in the pass rush. Second-year defensive end Shemar Stewart could also take on an expanded role.

More importantly, the Bengals bolstered their interior defense, signing Jonathan Allen and acquiring three-time Pro Bowler Dexter Lawrence II from the New York Giants. If they stay healthy, Cincinnati's run defense could be a top-10 unit after giving up the most yards in the previous season.

Also, the Bengals added safeties Bryan Cook and Kyle Dugger to strengthen their secondary.

The Baltimore Ravens are entering a new era with first-time head coach Jesse Minter. The Pittsburgh Steelers are running it back with an older roster led by 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers. It's time for the Bengals to make a move in the division with a respectable defense.

AFC South: Titans OC Brian Daboll's Impact on QB Cam Ward

AP Photo/John Amis

Brian Daboll

Tennessee Titans head coach Robert Saleh selected the right play-caller to work with second-year quarterback Cam Ward. Given Brian Daboll's history, he should be able to help the Titans' signal-caller make significant strides this year.

As an offensive coordinator and play-calling head coach, Daboll helped develop Josh Allen into a Pro Bowler and optimized Daniel Jones' skill set. Under his tutelage, Jaxson Dart provided a spark to the Big Blue's offense in the first half of the previous season.

The Titans signed wideout Wan'Dale Robinson, who knows Daboll's offense, and selected Carnell Tate with the No. 4 overall pick in this year's draft.

If the Titans' offensive line allows Ward enough time to throw downfield, he can pick apart defenses from the pocket. 

Even if the Titans' offensive line has its lapses, Ward can offset some of those issues with his mobility. Fortunately for him, Daboll has a strong track record with athletic quarterbacks.

In 2025, the Titans finished at the bottom of the division. This year, with improved quarterback play, they can surpass the Indianapolis Colts, whose signal-caller, Jones, is on the mend from a torn ACL. Tennessee could also challenge the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans, who have talented but inconsistent signal-callers.

AFC West: Chiefs Redefining Their Offense

AP Photo/Colin E Braley

Kenneth Walker III

While many expect the Kansas City Chiefs to bounce back following a 6-11 season, they may not look like the juggernaut from their Super Bowl years.

First and foremost, two-time league MVP Patrick Mahomes is recovering from a torn ACL. Tight end Travis Kelce is entering his age-34 season after averaging 50.1 receiving yards per game last year, his lowest rate since his rookie term when he suited up for just one contest.

According to Matt Foster of KSHB 41 News, Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice has been ordered to serve 30 days in jail after what Foster reports was a violation of the terms of his probation. Per ESPN's Adam Schefter, Rice also recently underwent a clean-up procedure on his right knee to remove loose debris, and the issue is expected to sideline him for about two months.

At 23, Xavier Worthy is still coming along after two inconsistent seasons. He's yet to play up to first-round expectations.

Even if Mahomes is healthy for Week 1, he could struggle with the Chiefs' current group of pass-catchers. Because Rice has been unreliable or unavailable for most of his three years with the club, Kansas City will likely add a veteran receiver before its season opener.

Yet still, head coach Andy Reid may be calling plays for a run-oriented offense.

Kansas City signed running back Kenneth Walker III to a three-year, $43 million deal, an indicator that he'll take on a significant workload.

If the Chiefs adjust to potential limitations in their passing game, they could contest for the AFC West title. If not, Kansas City may be battling for a wild-card spot.

NFC East: Giants' Culture Shift Under HC John Harbaugh

AP Photo/Frank Franklin II

Jaxson Dart

The NFC East has several X-factors. 

The Philadelphia Eagles have a new offensive system under first-time play-caller Sean Mannion. The Dallas Cowboys revamped their defense. Jayden Daniels is healthy again.

That said, the Giants made the biggest splash in the head coaching carousel. They hired John Harbaugh after the Baltimore Ravens relieved him of his duties.

Harbaugh brings a decorated resume with him to New York. On his watch, the Ravens won a Super Bowl and six division titles. He only had three losing seasons in 18 years with the club.

Other than being a perennial contender, the Ravens also had an identity rooted in toughness and physicality under Harbaugh. If he instills that mentality into the Giants, Big Blue could see a quick turnaround.

When you consider the rugged play style of quarterback Jaxson Dart and running back Cam Skattebo and the addition of rookie first-round offensive lineman Francis Mauigoa, the Giants could field one of the most physically imposing offenses this year.

Dart expects the Giants to be a run-first team, a sign of Harbaugh's influence.

NFC North: QB Kyler Murray's New Career Chapter with the Vikings

AP Photo/Jessica Tobias

Kyler Murray

Even though the Minnesota Vikings haven't officially named Kyler Murray their lead quarterback, most expect him to start over J.J. McCarthy, who struggled so much that head coach Kevin O'Connell had to limit his play-call selection last season.

Murray had a disappointing end to his seven-year run with the Arizona Cardinals, but he's an established starter. The 28-year-old earned back-to-back Pro Bowl nods in 2020 and 2021 and led the Cardinals to the playoffs in the latter year.

Murray is a clear upgrade over McCarthy, who threw for 1,632 yards, 11 touchdowns and 12 interceptions with a 57.6 percent completion rate across 10 starts in 2025.

There are questions about Murray's leadership qualities, but he has the arm talent and mobility to make big plays in a well-structured offense.

O'Connell helped revive Sam Darnold's career. He can do the same for Murray, who has accomplished more than Darnold before his one-year stint in Minnesota.

Moreover, Murray will have one of the league's best pass-catching groups, which includes two-time All-Pro Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Jauan Jennings and T.J. Hockenson.

Look for Murray to garner Comeback Player of the Year buzz as the Vikings get back into contention for the NFC North title. Though if Murray struggles, Minnesota may scramble to acquire a quarterback before the trade deadline to salvage its season.

NFC South: Saints HC Kellen Moore Mixing in New Playmakers Around QB Tyler Shough

AP Photo/Gerald Herbert

Jordyn Tyson

In the second half of the previous campaign, Tyler Shough looked impressive. In five of his nine starts, he completed at least 68 percent of his passes and threw for 308-plus yards in two of his last three outings.

Shough opened the 2025 campaign as Spencer Rattler's backup, and he made the most of his opportunities after the Saints inserted him into the starting lineup. 

Now, Shough has more playmakers around him.

New Orleans signed running back Travis Etienne Jr. and guard David Edwards to establish the ground game. 

The Saints drafted three wide receivers, most notably first-rounder Jordyn Tyson. They can also run two-tight end sets with Juwan Johnson and newcomer Noah Fant or rookie third-rounder Oscar Delp.

As an offensive play-caller, Kellen Moore has led top-seven scoring units with the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles. He's not mentioned in the same breath as Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell as a play-caller, but that could change this year if he fields a budding high-scoring offense.

NFC West: 49ers' Roster Depth

AP Photo/Jeff Chiu

Kaelon Black

Every team deals with injuries, but the San Francisco 49ers seem to have a cluster of them at certain positions or among their key players.

In 2025, the 49ers lost All-Pros Nick Bosa and Fred Warner to season-ending injuries. All-Pro tight end George Kittle sat out several weeks because of a hamstring injury. All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams suffered a hamstring injury early in the team's Week 17 matchup with the Chicago Bears and missed the season finale.

Defensive end Mykel Williams, a first-rounder from last year's draft, didn't play in the second half of the campaign because of a torn ACL and lateral meniscus damage.

Despite all that, San Francisco finished 12-5 and fell short in a low-scoring Week 18 battle with the Seattle Seahawks for the NFC's No. 1 seed.

Mostly healthy, the 49ers are Super Bowl contenders. Like every other team, they'll deal with injuries, but their depth could be the difference between a home playoff game and missing the postseason.

Head coach Kyle Shanahan and his staff must develop the youngsters on the roster, particularly the top rookies and second-year players.

Rookie second-rounder De'Zhaun Stribling must be ready to contribute if Mike Evans, 32, and oft-injured wideout Ricky Pearsall miss time. Rookie third-rounder Kaelon Black or 2025 fifth-rounder Jordan James could spell lead ball-carrier Christian McCaffrey, who has almost a decade of wear and tear on his body. 

On the interior of the defensive line, Williams and Alfred Collins could be impact defenders in rotation with Owa Odighizuwa.

Teams can get to the playoffs with a top-heavy roster, though quality depth allows clubs to overcome attrition.

Player contract details are provided by Over the Cap.

Maurice Moton covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @MoeMoton.