Netflix MMA: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano Main Card Predictions
MMA history will be made this Saturday, when the sport makes its long anticipated debut on Netflix with the help of several huge stars.
Haters will scoff at the notion that this card is making history, but facts are facts. Netflix's gargantuan reach just about guarantees this will be the most-watched MMA event in history. That's pretty cool.
Headlining honors for this landmark card will go to a pair of iconic female fighters, as Ronda Rousey takes on Gina Carano.
Rousey, of course, is the first female champion in UFC history. She dominated the women's bantamweight division with her grappling for years, and became one of the sport's first truly mainstream stars in the process. She's also a former Strikeforce champion and a bronze medalist in Olympic judo.
Carano, a muay thai specialist, doesn't have quite the resume Rousey does. However, she arguably set the stage for Rousey during her own star-making run in Strikeforce.
Everyone knows about the problems with this fight. Rousey hasn't fought since a pair of knockout losses to Amanda Nunes and Holly Holm in 2016 and 2015, and is almost 40. Carano hasn't fought in a staggering 17 years, since she was knocked out by Cris Cyborg, and is now a few years past 40. Yes, it's a better-late-than-never situation. But it's still a cool fight, and it's not all we have to look forward to.
In the second of two co-headliners, former UFC superstar Nate Diaz will take on bare-knuckle juggernaut "Platinum" Mike Perry in a fight that promises to be bloody and violent, no matter how it ends. Before that, former UFC heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou—still the division's lineal champ—will take on fellow UFC veteran Philipe Lins.
The main card will also feature a clash of highly skilled lightweights, as former KSW champ Salahdine Parnasse takes on Kenneth Cross. Former UFC heavyweight champ Junior dos Santos will also be in action on Netflix, kicking off the main card opposite gigantic Karate Combat knockout machine Robelis Despaigne.
It's a night that should feature plenty of action and lots of memorable moments—probably good and bad. The B/R combat sports team will be on hand to bring you all the excitement on the night. In the meantime, here are our predictions for the main card fights.
Here we go.
Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano
1 of 5
Nick Akerman: It's mad to think we're a decade on from Ronda Rousey's brutal loss to Amanda Nunes. It's even madder to think the 44-year-old Gina Carano was in her 20s when she last fought.
Both fighters may feel they have something to prove in what is essentially a late-to-the-party clash of two of the most important competitors in women's MMA history. Rousey has to be considered the huge favourite for multiple reasons.
For one, her grappling and submission game will have likely maintained itself better than Carano's power. While Rousey has spoken recently about neurological and depth-perception issues when getting battered by Holm, we can't expect that level of impact here. She has time to work and time to avoid putting herself in difficult situations. She can slowly work through the gears if she needs to.
Carano has also never fought someone with Rousey's technical ability. Cris Cyborg is the only opponent who had Rousey's class, although in different areas, and brushed Carano aside in her prime. I think the younger Rousey will work harder and get it done fairly easily, as there seems to be a real hunger about her at the moment.
Prediction: Rousey by submission, Rd. 2
Lyle Fitzsimmons: If you think it's crazy that Rousey has a main event, without a win since 2015, it's even crazier to think Carano got the gig despite having not had a hand raised since Jake Paul was 11 years old. Still, star power wins out, and it'll be enough to lead SportsCenter.
Neither is what she was in her prime or at the end of the competitive road, but both the former UFC champ and Strikeforce title challenger probably have enough athletic muscle memory to make for a worthwhile Saturday night on Netflix.
Rousey's reputation was built on aggression and world-class judo skills, which yielded submissions in nine of her 12 pro wins. She was ultimately bedeviled by skilled strikers, however, as proven by both Holm and Nunes.
Those results might prompt optimism for the Carano supporters in the building in Los Angeles—and it should make for good streaming—but the guess here is that the "Rowdy" one takes advantage of the closeness, gets her rival into a compromising position and sends the crowd home happy inside of five minutes.
Prediction: Rousey by submission, Rd. 1
Tom Taylor: It's still hard to believe this fight is happening. Obviously, it would have been better if it occurred a decade or more ago, but I'm still glad it's happening. I've heard the haters' arguments, and I still think it's a fun throwback, and it's cool that two women will headline the first MMA event on Netflix.
My gut reaction about the outcome of the fight is the same as most people's. Rousey will probably win by submission, probably with an armbar, and probably quickly. That's what she did to nearly everybody she fought in MMA. It's always been her M.O., and it's doubtful that has changed even after all these years.
We also know from her last two fights that she doesn't like getting hit, will give her extra motivation to get this fight to the ground quickly. Her judo should allow her to do this, and if it does, it's hard to imagine Carano surviving for long.
I'll admit that a bit of doubt has been creeping in as the fight gets closer. It's hard to forget how badly Rousey responded to getting hit clean in her last two fights, and Carano is still a big, strong woman with good muay thai fundamentals even in her 40s.
I don't think a Carano win is as farfetched as the odds suggests. Still, I've got to go with my gut. I would have favored Rousey 10 years ago, and I favor her now.
Prediction: Rousey by submission, Rd. 1
Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry
2 of 5
Nick Akerman: Mike Perry found his calling when BKFC came knocking. It was obvious during his time with the UFC that he's an excellent brawler, a straight-up killer who just wants to separate his opponent's head from their neck. His 6-0 record in BKFC is testament of a guy who has worked hard to be in the position he's now in.
He did, however, lose four of his last four MMA bouts. His last win in the Octagon came against Mickey Gall, the 7-7 CM Punk slayer who was able to withstand Perry's onslaught and lose by decision. Mickey's long jiu-jitsu style posed an issue that we may well see when Perry takes on Nate Diaz.
Anyone who has ever watched a Nate fight knows he's a sucker for punishment who can walk through punches that would deck most other fighters. This is such a fun matchup, and years ago I'd have been 100% certain Diaz would take it, possibly by cranking Perry's neck.
Mike has that dog in him, though, and I'm not sure he'll let the moment pass without doing some serious damage to an older, slower Diaz.
Prediction: Perry via decision
Lyle Fitzsimmons: If this is a boxing match—bare knuckles or gloved—it's a no contest.
Perry wins in a flurry of punches. But it's not. It's an MMA fight. And a 7-8 record in the UFC proves he's swimming in water too deep when the canvas is surrounded by a cage.
Diaz was holding his own up until his last stand in the octagon four years ago, handling better opposition than Perry ever beat in the promotion. And though "Platinum" will certainly land some shots and draw some blood, he'll not fare well when the Stockton slapper is still standing after the opening salvo.
Prediction: Diaz by submission, Rd. 2
Tom Taylor: I was really impressed when this fight announced. To me, it was an indication of how serious Netflix and Jake Paul's Most Valuable Promotions were about this card, because it can't have been cheap to get Diaz or Perry to participate, given their standing in the combat sports world.
I'm definitely excited for this fight, but the closer it gets, the more I worry it's going to be seriously ugly for Diaz. His jiu jitsu and cardio definitely give him a good chance of success, but he has always been really easy to cut, and his legendary durability can't possibly hold out much longer. Meanwhile Mike Perry is a seriously nasty and aggressive puncher, even when he begrudgingly puts on a pair of gloves.
I would love for this to turn into a fun, back-and-forth fight that doesn't leave either guy too beat-up, but I can't shake the feeling that Perry is going to win this one in violent fashion. I think he hurts Diaz badly in the first couple of rounds, probably cutting him and wobbling him more than once. He'll probably have to stop a few takedowns along the way, but eventually, a standing TKO is going to materialize.
Prediction: Perry by TKO, Rd. 2
Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Lins
3 of 5
Nick Akerman: I don't see much reason to dwell on this one. Francis Ngannou has lights out power, has beaten some of the biggest names in the sport in double-quick time, and gets to step up against a guy who often leaves himself right there to get sparked out. Philipe Lins may be on a decent run, but he's never faced anything like Ngannou, who still carries an insane threat in his older years.
Prediction: Ngannou by TKO, Rd. 2
Lyle Fitzsimmons: There's going to be a revelation made on Saturday night. And no, it won't take long.
Lins will realize, the first time he's hit by Ngannou, that it feels a little different than being hit by Marcin Prachnio, Ovince Saint Preux, Maxim Grishin, or Ion Cutelaba.
And when that happens, the fight will be over.
Prediction: Ngannou by TKO, Rd. 1
Tom Taylor: I agree with my most sagacious colleagues on this one.
Francis Ngannou has knocked out the likes of Stipe Miocic, Alistair Overeem, Cain Velasquez, Junior dos Santos, Andrei Arlovski, and Curtis Blaydes. Even if he's slowed down a bit, which doesn't even seem to be the case, he can definitely knock out Philipe Lins, a middling light heavyweight who hasn't fought in years. Whether Ngannou is on the front foot or the back, he'll put Lins clean out with a clubbing hook or uppercut inside a few minutes.
Prediction: Ngannou by KO, Rd. 1
Salahdine Parnasse vs. Kenneth Cross
4 of 5
Nick Akerman: This is a nice fight for Salahdine Parnasse, who perhaps isn't as well-known enough for how good he is. Kenneth Cross is an experienced, durable guy, but he's prone to giving up his back and getting choked out. Good news for Parnasse, then, who has seven career victories by submission. Time to add one more.
Prediction: Parnasse by submission, Rd. 3
Lyle Fitzsimmons: It'll take far more than a casual Netflix fan to recognize either of these guys, but there's a lot to like if you take the time. Parnasse has 14 finishes in 22 career wins across four promotions, while Cross has also worked the unheralded side of the street aside from a Contender Series win in 2020 and a Bellator loss three years later.
He's got eight submission wins of his own, but each of his four losses have come by that method, and that's not a good tiebreaker.
Prediction: Parnasse by submission, Rd. 2
Tom Taylor: Salahdine Parnasse is one of the best fighters outside the UFC right now. His record is every bit as good as it looks, as he's faced solid competition through most of his career, and has beaten some respected names in the KSW cage. That includes current UFC fighter Robert Ruchala and UFC and Bellator veteran Marcin Held, both of whom he violently knocked out.
Cross has a good record too, and has beaten some decent opposition himself, but I don't think he's on the same level as the Frenchman, who is just too versatile to pick against. He's got the skill and firepower to win on the feet, and as my colleagues have said, he can definitely win by submission too. It's his choice, really. I'll call it a knockout, just to be different.
Prediction: Parnasse by KO, Rd. 2
Junior dos Santos vs. Robelis Despaigne
5 of 5
Nick Akerman: The winner of this fight will be dictated by how MMA it is. Junior dos Santos will have no fear grappling with a man who lost to Austen Lane in his last bout under this ruleset. Similarly, Robelis Despaigne will feel standing exchanges are an area for him to exploit. Super tough to call, but I think Despaigne might catch JDS and capitalise.
Prediction: Despaigne by TKO, Rd. 2
Lyle Fitzsimmons: Despaigne was an interesting commodity after winning his first UFC fight in 18 seconds, but successive losses to Waldo Cortes Acosta (forgivable) and Austen Lane (not forgivable) quickly rendered him without an octagonal future. And even though dos Santos is a relic of the promotion's formative years, it's difficult to imagine him losing to a guy who couldn't beat Lane.
Prediction: Dos Santos by unanimous decision
Tom Taylor: Robelis Despaigne has the touch of death, and his recent KO wins in the Karate Combat pit had me thinking he might get the call to fight Francis Ngannou next. Instead it will be another former UFC heavyweight champ in Junior dos Santos.
The outcome of this fight is going to depend entirely on what Dos Santos does. If his pride gets the better of him, and he tries to prove he's still the ferocious and skillful knockout artist he once was by standing with Despaigne, he's probably going to get knocked out. Probably quickly. If he's smart, and brings this fight to the ground, he'll win.
There is no question he can outclass his opponent on the mat, even if he was never known for his grappling. That's how subpar Despaigne is in that department. Respectfully, I'm not even sure he trains wrestling and jiu jitsu.
I think—and for his sake, I hope—that Dos Santos chooses the right path.
Prediction: Dos Santos by submission, Rd. 2
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