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Buy or Sell Cam Schlittler, José Soriano and MLB's 15 Biggest Breakout Pitchers
One of the biggest storylines of the first quarter of the 2026 MLB season has been the long list of breakout performances from starting pitchers across the league.
Cam Schlittler (NYY), Davis Martin (CWS) and José Soriano (LAA) have all pitched to a sub-2.00 ERA in over 50 innings of work, and they headline a group of pitchers who have reached a new level of effectiveness in 2026.
Ahead we've given our buy or sell take on whether the 15 biggest breakout pitchers of the season will continue to make a frontline-caliber impact the rest of the season.
A take of "sell" simply suggests there is some likely regression to come or not enough foundation to fully buy the breakthrough, though this list wouldn't exist without guys exceeding expectations.
RHP Braxton Ashcraft, Pittsburgh Pirates
1 of 15
2025: 2.71 ERA, 2.78 FIP, 8.2 BB%, 24.3 K%, 69.2 IP
2026: 2.77 ERA, 3.02 FIP, 7.3 BB%, 26.7 K%, 48.2 IP
The Pirates eased Braxton Ashcraft into the big leagues in a bullpen role last season, but he shifted into the rotation down the stretch and finished with a 2.16 ERA in 33.1 innings over eight starts.
With a fastball that averages 96.8 mph and a curveball (41.9%) and slider (39.7%) that are both generating elite whiff rates, he is looking like a bona fide No. 2 starter behind Paul Skenes in the Pittsburgh rotation.
Verdict: Buy
RHP Chase Burns, Cincinnati Reds
2 of 15
2025: 4.57 ERA, 2.65 FIP, 8.5 BB%, 35.6 K%, 43.1 IP
2026: 2.11 ERA, 3.76 FIP, 8.7 BB%, 26.1 K%, 47.0 IP
Among pitchers with at least 40 innings of work last season, Chase Burns ranked seventh with a 35.6 percent strikeout rate, demonstrating elite swing-and-miss stuff just a year after going No. 2 overall in the 2024 draft.
His punchouts have leveled off this season, but he has found more stability when it comes to run prevention.
He is still essentially a two-pitch guy, leaning heavily on his fastball (55.2% usage) and slider (38.2% usage), but those two offerings are so overpowering he can be a legitimate top-of-the-rotation guy.
Verdict: Buy
RHP Chase Dollander, Colorado Rockies
3 of 15
2025: 6.52 ERA, 5.53 FIP, 11.1 BB%, 18.6 K%, 98.0 IP
2026: 3.35 ERA, 3.84 FIP, 9.4 BB%, 26.1 K%, 43.0 IP
After going No. 9 overall in the 2023 draft, Chase Dollander immediately established himself as one of baseball's elite pitching prospects with a 2.59 ERA and 169 strikeouts in 118 innings while reaching Double-A.
The 24-year-old took his lumps last season, serving up a .278 opponents' batting average and 18 home runs in 21 starts.
This year, he has found success pitching in a bulk role behind an opener. He has taken a major step forward in effectiveness, but he's still building toward being a rotation anchor.
Verdict: Sell
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LHP Foster Griffin, Washington Nationals
4 of 15
2020-22: 6.75 ERA, 4.13 FIP, 13.2 BB%, 13.2 K%, 8.0 IP
2026: 2.12 ERA, 4.08 FIP, 7.9 BB%, 22.1 K%, 46.2 IP
Foster Griffin was the No. 28 overall pick in the 2014 draft by the Royals, but things never clicked stateside and he made the leap to the Japanese League in 2023.
After a solid three-year run with the Yomiuri Giants, he inked a one-year, $5.5 million deal with the Nationals in December.
He has clearly returned a different pitcher, unveiling a seven-pitch arsenal that has helped him post a 2.12 ERA while averaging 91.4 mph with his fastball.
The underlying metrics suggest he's more useful No. 4 starter than breakthrough frontline arm, but that should still make him a popular name at the deadline.
Verdict: Sell
RHP Emerson Hancock, Seattle Mariners
5 of 15
2025: 4.90 ERA, 5.08 FIP, 8.1 BB%, 16.6 K%, 90.0 IP
2026: 3.21 ERA, 3.89 FIP, 4.9 BB%, 27.0 K%, 47.2 IP
Emerson Hancock was only part of Seattle's Opening Day rotation due to Bryce Miller starting the year on the injured list. He has pitched well enough that the team now plans to go to a six-man rotation before potentially piggybacking Miller and Luis Castillo.
The No. 6 overall pick in the 2020 draft has taken some time to deliver on the potential he showed during his time at the University of Georgia.
A more effective fastball and increased slider usage has him looking more like a frontline starter and less like an injury fill-in.
Verdict: Buy
LHP Kyle Harrison, Milwaukee Brewers
6 of 15
2025: 4.04 ERA, 3.72 FIP, 9.0 BB%, 24.4 K%, 35.2 IP
2026: 2.41 ERA, 3.27 FIP, 9.3 BB%, 29.3 K%, 33.2 IP
After posting a 2.71 ERA with 186 strikeouts in 113 innings while reaching Double-A in 2022, left-hander Kyle Harrison began the following season as one of baseball's top pitching prospects and a potential future ace.
The Giants ultimately flipped him to the Red Sox in the Rafael Devers blockbuster last summer, and he was traded again during the offseason in a six-player deal with the Brewers.
The change of scenery and addition of a changeup as a viable third offering has made him a playoff-caliber starting option in Milwaukee.
Verdict: Buy
RHP Davis Martin, Chicago White Sox
7 of 15
2025: 4.10 ERA, 4.64 FIP, 8.0 BB%, 17.3 K%, 142.2 IP
2026: 1.62 ERA, 2.34 FIP, 5.2 BB%, 27.1 K%, 50.0 IP
Davis Martin ranked second on a 102-loss White Sox team with 142.2 innings of work last season, putting up roughly league-average numbers while chewing up innings on a young staff.
With a 4.32 ERA and 4.48 FIP in 256 career innings entering the year, his ceiling looked like back-end production, but with an elite walk rate and far more swing-and-miss this season he actually reads as one of the most sustainable breakthroughs of the year.
Verdict: Buy
RHP Michael McGreevy, St. Louis Cardinals
8 of 15
2025: 4.42 ERA, 4.27 FIP, 5.0 BB%, 14.5 K%, 95.2 IP
2026: 2.18 ERA, 3.76 FIP, 6.0 BB%, 19.6 K%, 45.1 IP
Michael McGreevy was one of the few bright spots on the St. Louis pitching staff last year, emerging as a staple in the starting rotation, though he did it with a 14.5 percent strikeout rate that ranked 137th among 143 pitchers with at least 90 innings of work.
Until he finds a way to miss more bats, his ceiling probably maxes out as a No. 3/4 option who can chew through innings. That said, there's plenty of value in that profile, and he has recorded five quality starts through his first eight outings this year.
Verdict: Sell
LHP Parker Messick, Cleveland Guardians
9 of 15
2025: 2.72 ERA, 2.98 FIP, 3.6 BB%, 23.0 K%, 39.2 IP
2026: 2.30 ERA, 2.82 FIP, 6.1 BB%, 28.3 K%, 47.0 IP
Parker Messick began the 2025 season as the No. 17 prospect in the Guardians system, so his standout performance after making his MLB debut on Aug. 20 ended up being one of the biggest surprises of the season.
He lacks elite velocity, but has generated a ridiculous 44.2 percent whiff rate with his changeup, helping his 93.7 mph fastball play up in the process.
The undersized frame and lack of overpowering stuff made it easy to expect regression, but he continues to produce at an All-Star level as the sample size grows.
Verdict: Buy
RHP Max Meyer, Miami Marlins
10 of 15
2025: 4.73 ERA, 4.46 FIP, 7.0 BB%, 23.9 K%, 64.2 IP
2026: 2.79 ERA, 2.88 FIP, 8.5 BB%, 25.6 K%, 42.0 IP
Between Tommy John surgery (2022), shoulder bursitis (2024) and hip surgery (2025), Max Meyer has had a tough time staying on the field throughout his career.
He had a 2.10 ERA in 30 innings through his first five starts last year before his effectiveness dipped and the hip injury eventually ended his season at the beginning of June.
The question is not about the quality of stuff from the former No. 3 overall pick, but whether he can stay upright for an entire season, and until those questions are answered it's tough to fully buy the breakout.
Verdict: Sell
RHP Jacob Misiorowski, Milwaukee Brewers
11 of 15
2025: 4.36 ERA, 3.62 FIP, 11.4 BB%, 31.9 K%, 66.0 IP
2026: 2.45 ERA, 2.62 FIP, 9.6 BB%, 39.5 K%, 44.0 IP
Jacob Misiorowski burst onto the scene last season with three electric starts that saw him log a 1.13 ERA and 19 strikeouts in 16 innings. He earned a surprise All-Star nod, but his control eroded as the season wore on and he ended up pitching out of the bullpen in October.
With Freddy Peralta traded and Brandon Woodruff injured, he ended up taking the ball on Opening Day, and he is pitching like a real Cy Young candidate so far this year.
An improvement in his walk rate and better command in the zone, coupled with an already elite strikeout rate getting even better, make him one of the game's most promising young arms.
Verdict: Buy
RHP Landen Roupp, San Francisco Giants
12 of 15
2025: 3.80 ERA, 3.91 FIP, 9.5 BB%, 21.4 K%, 106.2 IP
2026: 3.09 ERA, 2.52 FIP, 10.7 BB%, 28.8 K%, 43.2 IP
It was not a given that Landen Roupp would land a rotation spot over Hayden Birdsong heading into spring training, even after logging a 106 ERA+ over 22 starts last season.
There has not been a major change in his stuff or pitch usage, but his hard-hit rate allowed has plummeted from 36.5 to 23.8 percent, putting him in the 98th percentile in that category. That speaks to improved command in the zone, even with the slight uptick in his walk rate, and gives him one of the more sustainable profiles on this list.
Verdict: Buy
RHP Cam Schlittler, New York Yankees
13 of 15
2025: 2.96 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 10.2 BB%, 27.6 K%, 73.0 IP
2026: 1.35 ERA, 1.66 FIP, 4.5 BB%, 29.2 K%, 53.1 IP
After a strong second half last season, Cam Schlittler introduced himself properly on the national stage with eight shutout innings and 12 strikeouts in Game 3 against the rival Red Sox in the AL Wild Card Series.
The 25-year-old has effectively replaced the injured Gerrit Cole as the ace of the staff for the Yankees, anchoring a starting rotation that leads the AL with a 3.07 ERA. His 1.66 FIP leads all qualified starters, and coupled with his electric stuff fully validates his elite start.
Verdict: Buy
RHP José Soriano, Los Angeles Angels
14 of 15
2025: 4.26 ERA, 3.73 FIP, 10.8 BB%, 21.0 K%, 169.0 IP
2026: 1.66 ERA, 3.17 FIP, 9.3 BB%, 28.4 K%, 54.1 IP
The terrific numbers for José Soriano look even better when you remove a pair of shaky starts against the White Sox of all teams, as he is 5-0 with a 0.40 ERA in 37.2 innings over his other six outings.
Using his sinker less and his four-seam fastball more has given him a more well-rounded repertoire. His FIP suggests there is some level of regression coming relative to his elite start, but his underlying metrics still point to sustainable top-of-the-rotation performance.
Verdict: Buy
LHP Justin Wrobleski, Los Angeles Dodgers
15 of 15
2025: 4.32 ERA, 2.93 FIP, 6.1 BB%, 27.1 K%, 66.2 IP
2026: 2.42 ERA, 3.59 FIP, 6.2 BB%, 12.4 K%, 44.2 IP
Justin Wrobleski pitched mostly in a multi-inning relief role last season, making a pair of spot starts early in the year and recording more than three outs in 16 of his 22 appearances out of the bullpen. He ended the year by tossing five scoreless innings over four appearances in the World Series.
With Tyler Glasnow injured and Blake Snell just now returning to action, he has been pushed into a starting role, and he has completed at least six innings in each of his last five starts.
The middling strikeout rate and an FIP that's a run higher than his ERA raise some sustainability questions, but even if he returns to the bullpen he will be an important arm for the Dodgers.
Verdict: Sell
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