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Win-Loss Predictions For Every NFL Team Before 2026 Schedule Release
The NFL offseason brings optimism with roster movement in free agency and young talent coming in through the draft. With the full 2026 regular-season schedule set to release this evening, fans are counting their team's potential wins.
We're not here to crush anyone's hopes, but our win-loss projections provide a dose of reality.
Some teams improved more than others. Some playoff squads from last year won't make it back to the postseason. There will be new division leaders.
Here's the first crack at projecting the standings for the 2026 season—all 272 wins and losses (no ties) following the schedule release.
Arizona Cardinals
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2025 record: 3-14
Arizona Cardinals general manager Monti Ossenfort hired his second head coach, Mike LaFleur, who faces a tough challenge in turning around a team that won just three games last year.
For starters, the Cardinals will open the season with Jacoby Brissett as their lead signal-caller. The 33-year-old bridge quarterback was a serviceable starter last year, but the team still went 1-11 with him under center.
Rookie first-round running back Jeremiyah Love will draw fans to home games, but he may struggle behind an offensive line that's unsettled on the right side.
While it made sense to retain defensive coordinator Nick Rallis for continuity, his unit struggled last season, ranking 29th in scoring and 27th in total yards. Yes, he lost players due to injuries, but that's the norm across the league.
Arizona may turn to rookie third-rounder Carson Beck if its season goes off the rails, and it will by November. The Cardinals will have one of the worst records this year, though the payoff will be a top-two pick that lands them a potential franchise quarterback in next year's draft.
2026 projection: 3-14
Atlanta Falcons
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2025 record: 8-9
The Atlanta Falcons are a tough projection because they haven't named their starting quarterback.
New Falcons general manager Ian Cunningham told reporters, "There are no starters right now" when asked about the situation in March. Since then, nothing has changed within the quarterback room.
Michael Penix Jr. is recovering from knee surgery, and Tua Tagovailoa enters a new career chapter after six years with the Miami Dolphins. This will be an even battle if both signal-callers are healthy through the summer.
Nonetheless, we should expect the Falcons to rely heavily on All-Pro running back Bijan Robinson, who led the league with 2,298 scrimmage yards last season.
In his first three years as Cleveland Browns head coach, Kevin Stefanski fielded a top-six rushing attack with Nick Chubb as his lead ball-carrier. He could do the same with a more dynamic featured running back.
The Falcons' biggest issue will be their defense. Play-caller Jeff Ulbrich has led units that finished in the bottom half of the league in points allowed over the last three years, dating back to his time with the New York Jets.
The league might suspend James Pearce Jr., who has been charged with multiple felonies and a misdemeanor, including aggravated battery with a deadly weapon, fleeing and eluding police, resisting an officer with violence to his or her person, and aggravated stalking, according to an ESPN report.
If 2025 first-rounder Jalon Walker is anything less than an elite pass-rusher, the Falcons will struggle to pressure the pocket, which could be the downfall of Ulbrich's group this year.
Atlanta will play the AFC North. Stefanski knows that division well, which bodes well for matchups against those squads, but the Falcons may need to score 30-plus points to win games this year, and they're not equipped to do that with their quarterback situation.
2026 projection: 5-12
Baltimore Ravens
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2025 record: 8-9
For the first time since 2007, the Baltimore Ravens will enter an NFL season with a new head coach, which is a change that brings uncertainty.
That said, head coach Jesse Minter isn't a stranger to the franchise. He was a defensive assistant on John Harbaugh's staff between 2017 and 2020. With his track record coaching under both Harbaugh brothers (John and Jim), the 43-year-old could instill a similar culture, one that emphasizes toughness.
As the Los Angeles Chargers defensive coordinator, Minter fielded two top-nine scoring units. Last year, his group gave up the fifth-fewest yards. He should be able to rejuvenate Baltimore's defense after it fell apart under former play-caller Zach Orr.
The Ravens signed edge-rusher Trey Hendrickson and Calais Campbell to bolster their defensive front. According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, Nnamdi Madubuike underwent neck surgery, and doctors believe he could play this year.
Baltimore will reinvent its offense with first-time offensive coordinator Declan Doyle, who came over from the Chicago Bears. If he carries over elements of head coach Ben Johnson's run-heavy system, Derrick Henry will remain a key part of the offense, though quarterback Lamar Jackson must stay healthy to get this team back to the playoffs.
Baltimore will play the AFC South and NFC South, the latter being arguably the league's weakest division. The Ravens reach 10 wins after working through early-season hiccups under a new coaching staff, but they lose the tiebreaker to the Cincinnati Bengals for the division title.
2026 projection: 10-7
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Buffalo Bills
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2025 record: 12-5
The Buffalo Bills enter the 2026 season with a notable change in their coaching staff.
After firing head coach Sean McDermott, they promoted offensive coordinator Joe Brady to the lead role. He'll take on a much bigger responsibility in a CEO-like position.
Nonetheless, Brady doesn't need to tinker with the offense. He's fielded a top-six scoring unit for each of the previous three seasons with 2024 league MVP Josh Allen under center. On his watch, James Cook III has emerged as a premier running back.
Brady must focus on developing his wide receiver corps, particularly third-year pro Keon Coleman and rookie fourth-rounder Skyler Bell. He must also maximize the addition of veteran wideout DJ Moore.
Allen can rack up eye-popping numbers in any given week, but he needs a go-to target in the passing game to rely on in critical moments. If no one emerges, Buffalo could fall short in marquee matchups.
First-time defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard's biggest challenge will be patching up the run defense, which gave up the second-most rushing touchdowns and third-most yards per carry last season. New free-agent acquisitions, edge-rusher Bradley Chubb and safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson, should help Buffalo maintain a stingy pass defense that allowed the fewest yards in 2025.
The Bills will be back atop the AFC East and look to make a deeper playoff run than in years past.
2026 projection: 11-6 (AFC East division winner)
Carolina Panthers
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2025 record: 8-9
Last season, the Carolina Panthers made the playoffs for the first time since 2017. They won the division. Bryce Young made strides, throwing for 3,011 yards, 23 touchdowns and 11 interceptions with a 63.6 percent completion rate. Wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan won the 2025 Offensive Rookie of the Year award.
In free agency, the Panthers signed edge-rusher Jaelan Phillips and linebacker Devin Lloyd to bolster their middling defense. Carolina can win with complementary football if the offense continues to trend in the right direction.
In 2026, Carolina will play the AFC North and NFC North on a first-place schedule, which includes matchups against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Philadelphia Eagles, Chicago Bears, Denver Broncos, and the Seattle Seahawks. The club will have a much tougher 17-game slate than it had last year, which may lead to regression.
The Panthers aren't on the same level as the league's top teams. We'll see the gap between them and division-winning clubs from the previous season.
2026 projection: 6-11
Chicago Bears
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2025 record: 11-6
In his first year as the Chicago Bears head coach, Ben Johnson made an immediate impact, leading the franchise to its first division title since 2018.
Johnson turned Chicago's struggling offense into a powerhouse with a three-receiver set that featured DJ Moore, Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III, a backfield duo of D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai and two-tight-end formations with Colston Loveland and Cole Kmet.
The Bears traded Moore to the Buffalo Bills, but they signed wideout Kalif Raymond, who knows Johnson's offense from their time in Detroit. Expect Odunze, Burden and Loveland to take on bigger roles. Chicago's offense will continue to rack up points in 2026.
Although the Bears lost their starting safeties, one can make the case that they signed a younger version of Kevin Byard in Coby Bryant, who recorded seven interceptions and 13 pass breakups between 2024 and 2025. Rookie first-rounder Dillon Thieneman could be an upgrade in pass coverage over Jaquan Brisker, who allowed five touchdowns and a 127.6 passer rating last season.
Chicago may be one pass-rusher short of fielding a top-tier defensive unit, but it's a decent group with the acquisitions at safety and linebacker Devin Bush in place of Tremaine Edwards, whom the team released before free agency.
The Bears' young squad plays up to the competition on a tough schedule. They match last year's record.
2026 projection: 11-6
Cincinnati Bengals
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2025 record: 6-11
The Cincinnati Bengals enter a crucial season that could impact Joe Burrow's future with the team.
ESPN's Adam Schefter talked to people around the league who believe Burrow might want out of Cincinnati if the club has a disappointing year. He pointed to the Bengals' acquiring nose tackle Dexter Lawrence II as a sign of the front office's urgency to build a playoff contender.
Lawrence solves a significant issue with Cincinnati's run defense, which allowed the most rushing yards last year.
However, the Bengals must figure out how to compensate for the loss of Trey Hendrickson, who signed with the Baltimore Ravens in free agency. Myles Murphy, who's in a contract year, free-agent acquisition Boye Mafe, second-year pro Shemar Stewart and rookie second-rounder Cashius Howell could form a solid rotation that fills a void in the pass rush.
The Bengals are competitive with Burrow healthy, but the addition of Lawrence and Jonathan Allen could turn a bottom-tier defense into a solid group that can help this club get back into the playoffs.
2026 projection: 10-7 (AFC North division winner)
Cleveland Browns
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2025 record: 5-12
The Cleveland Browns will evaluate their quarterbacks in a full-blown competition through the summer. According to Cleveland.com's Mary Kay Cabot, Deshaun Watson is the front-runner to earn the starting job.
Still, Shedeur Sanders and Dillon Gabriel have plenty of time to win the battle. Both started several games in their rookie campaign last season. The Browns won their last two outings with Sanders under center.
Whoever starts at quarterback will play with a young supporting cast. Cleveland will have new starters at every position across its offensive line, and Jerry Jeudy is the only receiver with extensive starting experience on the roster.
In the first two rounds of the draft, the Browns selected offensive tackle Spencer Fano and wide receivers KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston. All three could start in Week 1.
The Browns' starting quarterback will need time to jell with the supporting cast at those positions with a new coaching staff, led by Todd Monken. Expect the Browns' offensive unit to go through early rough patches as the team figures out its identity on that side of the ball.
Even though Mike Rutenberg is a first-time defensive coordinator, the defense should be stout and stingy with star edge-rusher Myles Garrett up front, 2025 Defensive Rookie of the Year Carson Schwesinger patrolling the middle and five-time Pro Bowl cornerback Denzel Ward in the secondary.
The Browns will be a lot of fun to watch with their new additions to the roster, though the quarterback position will be a huge question mark. Watson hasn't played well since Cleveland acquired him from the Houston Texans, and Sanders had more interceptions (10) than touchdown passes (seven) last year.
2026 projection: 5-12
Dallas Cowboys
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2025 record: 7-9-1
Like the previous season, the Dallas Cowboys will field an electric offensive attack. Dak Prescott has a strong rapport with wide receivers CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens and tight end Jake Ferguson.
Yet the Cowboys' high-powered offense will only take them but so far in the standings. In 2025, they scored the seventh-most points and racked up the second-most yards but finished 7-9-1.
Dallas made much-needed changes on the defensive side of the ball after giving up the most points and third-most yards last season. Head coach Brian Schottenmeier hired former Philadelphia Eagles defensive backs coach and defensive pass coordinator Christian Parker to fill a key vacancy on his staff.
In Philadelphia, Parker helped develop cornerback Quinyon Mitchell and versatile defensive back Cooper DeJean into All-Pro players within their first two years. He could do the same with rookie safety Caleb Downs, who can line up in different spots on the back end of the defense. Also, fourth-year veteran Cobie Durant brings quality experience to the cornerback group.
The Cowboys' pass rush will be the difference between a mediocre defense and a much-improved unit.
They acquired Rashan Gary from the Green Bay Packers and selected Malachi Lawrence in the first round of the draft. The new edge-rushers will join Quinnen Williams and Kenny Clark to shore up the defensive front. Edge-rusher Donovan Ezeiruaku could see some growth in his second year.
Dallas will face the NFC West and AFC South, two top-heavy divisions that combined for five 12-plus-win teams last season. The Cowboys will win more games than they did in 2025, but they still miss the playoffs.
2026 projection: 9-8
Denver Broncos
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2025 record: 14-3
The Denver Broncos had a quiet offseason until they traded for Jaylen Waddle, who will provide an immediate spark to their passing attack.
In five years with the Miami Dolphins, the 27-year-old didn't produce at the level of the league's elite wide receivers. However, he will play in a more stable offensive system with ascending quarterback Bo Nix under head coach Sean Payton.
Don't be surprised if Waddle posts career numbers in Denver's offense.
Otherwise, the Broncos haven't changed much of their roster from the previous campaign. They have continuity across their offensive line, a strong positive for Nix in his third year. The club's top-three scoring defense and total defense from the previous year remain mostly intact.
Even with a first-place schedule, the battle-tested Broncos will win double-digit games, but don't expect them to sweep the Kansas City Chiefs again if Patrick Mahomes is healthy for both outings or win just about every one-score game as they did last year.
2026 projection: 11-6
Detroit Lions
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2025 record: 9-8
After winning a franchise-record 15 games in 2024, the Detroit Lions came back to earth with new offensive and defensive coordinators in an up-and-down 2025 season.
The Lions aren't going back to their dark years, though. They addressed their biggest coaching question mark by hiring Drew Petzing to fill the offensive coordinator vacancy.
Midway through the previous campaign, head coach Dan Campbell took play-calling duties from John Morton, who's no longer on the coaching staff. Petzing has a solid resume in terms of designing a productive run game, which bodes well for Jahmyr Gibbs and Isiah Pacheco in the backfield.
Petzing fielded the fourth- and seventh-ranked rushing offenses with the Arizona Cardinals in 2023 and 2024. In the first of those two years, Kyler Murray only rushed for 244 yards. James Conner eclipsed 1,000 yards in both of those seasons. The Lions can re-establish a physical offensive attack to match their hard-nosed team identity.
Defensively, Detroit should be more resistant against aerial attacks with Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph healthy. The All-Pro-Pro Bowl safety duo missed 16 games combined last season.
The Lions get back to double-digit wins and the playoffs in the upcoming campaign.
2026 projection: 10-7
Green Bay Packers
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2025 record: 9-7-1
In 2025, the Green Bay Packers jumped out to a red-hot start and then collapsed late in the campaign, losing their last four regular-season games before a Wild Card Round exit. The Packers lost Micah Parsons and Tucker Kraft to injuries and routinely blew early leads, which eventually derailed their season.
Parsons and Kraft are recovering from torn ACLs. While both are on pace to return at some point this year, they could have slow ramp-ups to their full workloads.
Green Bay cut Nate Hobbs, signed Benjamin St-Juste and selected Brandon Cisse in the second round of the draft. Unless the rookie earns a starting role and makes more plays on the ball than he did in college (two interceptions and 10 pass breakups in three years), the Packers may continue to struggle in pass coverage.
Defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon is a solid replacement for Jeff Hafley, who took the Miami Dolphins' head-coaching job, but he may not have Parsons at 100 percent, which could significantly impact a secondary that's vulnerable in pass coverage.
Head coach Matt LaFleur can still lead the Packers to another winning season with a top-12 scoring offense led by quarterback Jordan Love and running back Josh Jacobs, but the Packers will have to work harder to stay above .500 this year.
2026 projection: 9-8
Houston Texans
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2025 record: 12-5
C.J. Stroud enters a crucial year with contract negotiations likely to follow after the 2026 season. According to ESPN's DJ Bien-Aime, the Houston Texans haven't had any talks with the quarterback's representatives about an extension.
Although Stroud has been decent, his passer rating and QBR took a nosedive after his first season, and he had an abysmal showing in Houston's divisional round playoff loss to the New England Patriots in the previous campaign, throwing for a touchdown and four interceptions with a 42.6 percent completion rate.
Stroud could have his most productive year behind a revamped offensive line that features three new potential starters: two-time Pro Bowler Wyatt Teller, right tackle Braden Smith and rookie first-rounder Keylan Rutledge. Also, big-play wideout Tank Dell has a chance to return from multiple knee surgeries.
The Texans added safety Reed Blankenship and rookie second-round defensive tackle Kayden McDonald to an elite unit that has no weakness.
Stroud has motivation. He's changed his diet. Houston's roster is loaded. The Texans will contend for the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
2026 projection: 13-4 (AFC South division winner)
Indianapolis Colts
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2025 record: 8-9
The Indianapolis Colts fell apart in the second half of the previous season because of quarterback play.
Daniel Jones struggled after the club's Week 11 bye and then ruptured his Achilles in Week 14. Anthony Richardson Sr. had fallen out of favor with the team after fracturing an orbital bone, and then-rookie sixth-rounder Riley Leonard wasn't ready to lead the offense. So, the Colts pulled 44-year-old Philip Rivers off his couch.
The Colts' quarterback situation still raises concerns.
According to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler, Indianapolis and Richardson have mutually agreed to find a trade partner, though he's still present during the team's offseason program. Jones is throwing while rehabbing his knee injury. The Colts may have to rely heavily on star running back Jonathan Taylor, who's played through a full season twice in the last five years.
Indianapolis may not be able to slow opposing teams down either. Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo's units have ranked 21st or worse in scoring for three consecutive seasons. The team released slot cornerback Kenny Moore II.
The Colts were a surprise winning team in the first half of the previous season, but they could be a massive disappointment in 2026.
2026 projection: 4-13
Jacksonville Jaguars
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2025 record: 13-4
In 2025, the Jacksonville Jaguars surprised many with a 13-win season (not this analyst). They'll have a tougher pathway to double-digit wins with a first-place schedule in the upcoming campaign.
The Jaguars proved they can beat playoff-caliber opponents in the previous term, knocking off the San Francisco 49ers, Houston Texans, Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos.
However, general manager James Gladstone's questionable draft classes may not provide much impact as the Jaguars face tough competition.
None of the Jaguars' 2025 picks made significant contributions last season. While healthy for seven games, Travis Hunter had a forgettable rookie campaign at wide receiver and cornerback. This year, the Jaguars may not get much production out of an incoming class headlined by blocking tight end Nate Boerkircher, whom the team selected in the second round.
Jacksonville's starters on both sides of the ball will need to do some heavy lifting to keep this club in playoff contention. Moreover, the Jaguars lost running back Travis Etienne Jr. in free agency, a big blow to their offense.
All that said, head coach Liam Coen has led top-six scoring offenses in back-to-back seasons. He'll get the most out of his unit to push the Jaguars over .500.
2026 projection: 9-8
Kansas City Chiefs
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2025 record: 6-11
In 2025, the Kansas City Chiefs shockingly finished well below .500 in a disastrous season. They missed the playoffs for the first time since 2014, and Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL in Week 15.
According to the MMQB's Albert Breer, the Chiefs are hopeful that Mahomes is "close to being himself" by Week 1.
While on The Pat McAfee Show, general manager Brett Veach talked about the importance of the ground game, which explains why Kansas City signed running back Kenneth Walker in free agency.
For at least the first month of the upcoming campaign, Walker could be the focal point of the Chiefs offense, which is a shift from head coach Andy Reid's pass-heavy play-calling tendencies.
Aside from Mahomes' recovery, Kansas City has uncertainty on the defensive side of the ball. The club lost linebacker Leo Chenal, safety Bryan Cook and Jaylen Watson in free agency and traded Trent McDuffie to the Los Angeles Rams.
Kansas City moved up for cornerback Mansoor Delane in the draft, but that's not enough to compensate for the departures in the secondary. The Chiefs defense may be susceptible to high-octane aerial attacks.
If Reid commits to a more methodical, run-heavy offense, the Chiefs can win low-scoring battles until Mahomes is back to his normal self. Still, we saw him struggle to move the ball with mostly the same pass-catching group from last season. Kansas City didn't add a notable veteran or a top draft pick to its receiver room.
The Chiefs won't return to dominance this year, and they may have to adjust their offense, pending Mahomes' recovery. Kansas City gets off to a slow start and picks up steam in the second half of the season.
2026 projection: 10-7
Las Vegas Raiders
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2025 record: 3-14
This offseason, the Las Vegas Raiders initiated a full-blown rebuild. They fired head coach Pete Carroll and replaced him with Klint Kubiak, who's fresh off a successful Super Bowl run with the Seattle Seahawks.
Las Vegas traded quarterback Geno Smith to the New York Jets, signed Kirk Cousins and selected Fernando Mendoza with the No. 1 overall pick.
According to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, the Raiders expect Cousins to start in the upcoming season.
Cousins played at a Pro Bowl level in Kubiak's system during his time with the Minnesota Vikings. He could get Las Vegas off to a quick start, throwing to star tight end Brock Bowers. Ashton Jeanty can balance the offense on the ground behind an improved offensive line with three-time Pro Bowler Tyler Linderbaum at center.
Kubiak doesn't have to clear a high bar, but the Raiders will field a far more productive offense than the unit that finished with the fewest points and yards in 2025.
In free agency, the Raiders addressed a key need at linebacker, signing Quay Walker and Nakobe Dean and added Kwity Paye, who can line up in different spots across the defensive front. They also acquired slot cornerback Taron Johnson from the Buffalo Bills.
With Maxx Crosby back in Las Vegas following the failed trade with the Baltimore Ravens, first-year defensive coordinator Rob Leonard, who was the team's defensive line coach and run game coordinator last season, has the talent to field a solid unit.
Regardless of whether Mendoza starts, the Silver and Black take a step in the right direction.
2026 projection: 6-11
Los Angeles Chargers
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2025 record: 11-6
In 2025, the Los Angeles Chargers lost two-time Pro Bowl left tackle Rashawn Slater before the start of the season. He tore his patellar tendon during a practice at training camp. Fellow offensive tackle Joe Alt suffered a season-ending ankle injury last November.
Still, quarterback Justin Herbert threw for 3,727 yards, 26 touchdowns and 13 interceptions with a 66.4 percent completion rate. He also used his legs to move the chains, rushing for a career-high 498 yards and two touchdowns. The two-time Pro Bowler carried the Chargers offense with his arm and legs.
With his two massive bodyguards at tackle back on the field, Herbert will have another highly productive campaign in 2026, but the Chargers won't be solely reliant on him.
Los Angeles signed experienced starting center Tyler Biadasz and selected center Jake Slaughter in the second round of the draft. Expect to see a more physical ground attack with second-year running back Omarion Hampton leading the charge.
The Chargers lost defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, who took the Baltimore Ravens' head-coaching job. So, they may take a step backward defensively under first-time play-caller Chris O'Leary, but Los Angeles' offense is equipped to outscore opponents in high-scoring battles this year.
2026 projection: 12-5 (AFC West division winner)
Los Angeles Rams
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2025 record: 12-5
The Los Angeles Rams have won at least 10 games in three consecutive seasons. Despite his age, Matthew Stafford has been mostly available, except in 2022, when he missed eight games.
As long as Stafford avoids injury, the Rams are Super Bowl contenders. They have a stacked roster with no glaring needs.
Puka Nacua checked himself into a "luxury treatment facility," but he was present for the start of the team's offseason program, an indicator that the star wideout will play while addressing personal matters.
General manager Les Snead acquired All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie from the Kansas City Chiefs and signed cover man Jaylen Watson to patch up the pass defense, which ranked 19th in yards and touchdowns allowed for the 2025 term.
With those additions and a budding front seven that includes Jared Verse, Byron Young, Kobie Turner and Braden Fiske, Los Angeles should be able to close games with its defense.
The Rams battle the Seattle Seahawks for the division crown again, but this time, they win it.
2026 projection: 13-4 (NFC West division winner)
Miami Dolphins
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2025 record: 7-10
Miami Dolphins fans should cover their eyes for most of the upcoming season.
The new regime led by general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan tore down the roster, releasing edge-rusher Bradley Chubb and wideout Tyreek Hill and trading wide receiver Jaylen Waddle to the Denver Broncos.
The Dolphins have a young roster that will feature unproven players in key roles.
Quarterback Malik Willis is a first-time, full-time starter. Between the third and fifth rounds of the draft, Miami drafted three wideouts to bolster a bottom-tier unit that could feature Jalen Tolbert, Tutu Atwell and Malik Washington in three-receiver sets.
After playing left tackle through three collegiate terms at Alabama, rookie first-rounder Kadyn Proctor will move to left guard. Rookie first-round cornerback Chris Johnson could start Week 1.
Under first-year head coach Jeff Hafley, Miami will be a struggling, rebuilding team that must establish an identity to stack wins, which may not happen until next year with this young roster.
The Dolphins finish with the NFL's worst record and will then face a decision on whether to move forward with Willis or draft a quarterback in 2027.
2026 projection: 2-15
Minnesota Vikings
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2025 record: 9-8
Head coach Kevin O'Connell has led the Minnesota Vikings to 13 wins with Kirk Cousins and 14 victories with Sam Darnold. The latter just won a Super Bowl with the Seattle Seahawks, but neither is considered an elite quarterback.
The Vikings signed Kyler Murray, who can be dynamic with his mobility and made the Pro Bowl in two of his first three years with the Arizona Cardinals. After a promising career start, he's battled injuries and posted mediocre passing numbers.
According to NFL Network's Tom Pelissero, Murray and J.J. McCarthy will battle for the starting job. That said, the former should win the competition with his starting experience.
Murray could benefit from a change of scenery in Minnesota, as Darnold did. He'll have two-time All-Pro Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Jauan Jennings, tight end T.J. Hockenson and a defense that's ranked seventh or better in scoring for consecutive terms under play-caller Brian Flores.
The Vikings have the structure to take pressure off of Murray while getting the best out of him. He'll be a Comeback Player of the Year candidate, and the Vikings will be in contention for a division title.
2026 projection: 12-5 (NFC North division winner)
New England Patriots
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2025 record: 14-3
NFL teams can only play the opponents on the schedule. That said, we can't ignore the fact that the New England Patriots had a favorable 17-game slate.
In 2026, the Patriots will play a first-place schedule. They'll face the NFC North, a division that had three playoff teams last year, and the AFC West. New England won't have the schedule breaks it had in the previous season.
Yet if the Patriots pull off a trade for wide receiver A.J. Brown, whom insiders have linked to the club in the rumor mill, he would significantly change their passing attack and the outlook in some matchups.
Quarterback Drake Maye could have an upgraded receiver room, but with the current pass-catching group, the Patriots have a pedestrian aerial attack. New acquisition Romeo Doubs hasn't recorded more than 59 receptions in a single season.
Also, lead skipper Mike Vrabel is getting counseling for a "personal and private matter" that could impact his coaching, especially if he's away from the team for short periods during the season.
2026 projection: 8-9
New Orleans Saints
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2025 record: 6-11
Keep an eye on the New Orleans Saints this year. They could pull off a few upsets and make a run for the NFC South title.
The Saints won four of their last five games in the previous season, beating two division rivals in that stretch.
Tyler Shough looked the part of a starting signal-caller in the second half the 2025 term, throwing for seven touchdowns and three interceptions in his last six starts. He finished second in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting.
Thus far this offseason, New Orleans has signed running back Travis Etienne Jr., guard David Edwards and drafted wideouts Jordyn Tyson and Bryce Lance in the first and fourth rounds, respectively. Shough will have more playmakers around him and a year of experience under his belt.
Head coach Kellen Moore will be able to open up the playbook with those key additions and a signal-caller who's more comfortable in his offense.
The Saints' Achilles' heel could be their pass rush. They haven't re-signed Cameron Jordan, who recorded 10.5 sacks last season. So, defensive coordinator Brandon Staley may depend on Chase Young to lead the rotation of edge-rushers, which is risky given his injury history. In three out of six seasons, he's missed at least five games.
New Orleans will be fun to watch, but the club needs help on the edge. Former Las Vegas Raider Tyree Wilson won't provide enough on passing downs to replace Jordan's production.
2026 projection: 8-9
New York Giants
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2025 record: 4-13
The New York Giants hired John Harbaugh to fill their head-coaching vacancy. He'll raise this club's floor and field a competitive squad in most weeks. Big Blue has enough talent on the roster to put together win streaks, too.
If Jaxson Dart stays healthy, he can lead an electric offense with his big arm and mobility. As a rookie last year, the dynamic signal-caller threw for 2,272 yards, 15 touchdowns and five interceptions with a 63.7 percent completion rate and ran for 487 yards and nine touchdowns.
According to The Athletic's Dan Duggan, wide receiver Malik Nabers underwent a second knee procedure after he tore his ACL, and the Giants hope he's ready for the season opener. Tight end Isaiah Likely and fullback Patrick Ricard followed Harbaugh from Baltimore; both will probably have solid roles on offense. Big Blue used its first-round picks on Arvell Reese, a hybrid off-ball-edge-rusher, and Francisco Mauigoa, who will play guard.
Yes, Harbaugh's resume is connected to a two-time league MVP, but he won a Super Bowl before Baltimore drafted Lamar Jackson and kept the Ravens in title contention over the last several years.
The Giants will be a better team under Harbaugh, though they need Dart and Nabers to be healthy for most of the campaign to see significant progress.
2026 projection: 8-9
New York Jets
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2025 record: 3-14
The New York Jets went back into their past, acquiring Geno Smith from the Las Vegas Raiders. Typically, it's not a good sign to reunite with a quarterback in the latter stages of his career, but the 35-year-old signal-caller is a different player than he was with Gang Green between 2013 and 2016.
Smith had a turnover-ridden 2025 season with the Raiders, leading the league with 17 interceptions, but he played at a Pro Bowl level in a more stable situation with the Seattle Seahawks.
Remember, Las Vegas fired offensive coordinator Chip Kelly last November, and the coaching staff tinkered with the starting offensive line group throughout the previous campaign.
In New York, Smith will play behind a settled offensive line. Also, the Jets selected tight end Kenyon Sadiq and wideout Omar Cooper Jr. in the first round of the draft. They'll join Garrett Wilson and tight end Mason Taylor in a young, talented group of perimeter pass-catchers.
The Jets upgraded on the defensive side of the ball.
They signed linebacker Demario Davis, edge-rusher Joseph Ossai, cornerback Nahshon Wright and defensive tackle David Onyemata. The club also traded for nose tackle T'Vondre Sweat and safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. Rookies David Bailey and D'Angelo Ponds could make an immediate impact on the edge and at cornerback, respectively.
The Jets' mix of young and established veterans should translate to notable progress, but they'll play arguably the two best divisions, the NFC North and the AFC West. Nonetheless, Gang Green takes a small step in the right direction.
2026 projection: 6-11
Philadelphia Eagles
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2025 record: 11-6
The Philadelphia Eagles have made the playoffs in five consecutive years. Despite turnover at the offensive coordinator position and reported locker-room drama around quarterback Jalen Hurts, they're still the most consistent team in the NFC East.
Thanks to general manager Howie Roseman, the Eagles have had stacked rosters in recent seasons, and that's the case this year.
In free agency, Philadelphia signed Riq Woolen, who's a significant upgrade over the team's rotation of No. 2 cornerbacks last season. The club acquired wideout Dontayvion Wicks from the Green Bay Packers. Roseman moved up for wide receiver Makai Lemon in the first round of the draft and acquired edge-rusher Jonathan Greenard from the Minnesota Vikings.
In all likelihood, the Eagles will trade A.J. Brown, who expressed his frustrations with the offense last year. With the addition of Lemon and Wicks, the Eagles seemed prepared to move the star wideout elsewhere.
Philadelphia fired offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo and replaced him with Sean Mannion, who's a first-time play-caller. Running back Saquon Barkley will probably take on a heavy workload while Hurts and Co. get acclimated to a new system.
In 2025, the Eagles went 3-3 within the division. The NFC East will be more competitive this year. The New York Giants hired John Harbaugh. The Dallas Cowboys added defensive playmakers. If Jayden Daniels stays healthy, the Washington Commanders will be a tough matchup.
Even with a talented roster, the Eagles won't be able to compensate for losing Brown if they trade him. Moreover, Mannion is an unproven play-caller who may lose chess matches against experienced defensive coordinators.
Yet still, Philadelphia notches 10 wins thanks to defensive coordinator Vic Fangio's stout unit.
2026 projection: 10-7 (NFC East division winner)
Pittsburgh Steelers
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2025 record: 10-7
As was the case last year, the Pittsburgh Steelers await quarterback Aaron Rodgers' decision on his career.
The Steelers placed a right-of-first-refusal tender on Rodgers, which allows them to match any offer that the quarterback receives from another team.
Pittsburgh selected Drew Allar in the third round of the draft. According to ESPN's Brooke Pryor, the team is "uninstalling" everything the rookie learned in college. So, he's unlikely to see the field this year. Mason Rudolph and Will Howard are potential starting candidates if Rodgers retires.
Aside from the uncertainty around the quarterback situation, the Steelers are entering a new era after head coach Mike Tomlin stepped down in January. Pittsburgh hired Mike McCarthy to replace him.
McCarthy is in a tough spot with an aging roster and no clear answer at quarterback. He could lean on the ground game with Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle, who played under him in Dallas, but the Steelers may not be able to optimize the talent at wide receiver if Rodgers hangs up his cleats.
Nonetheless, DK Metcalf, Michael Pittman Jr. and rookie second-rounder Germie Bernard could be a high-level trio in the passing game if Pittsburgh has decent quarterback play.
Pittsburgh's defense may have to limit opponents to fewer than 21 points for a chance to win early in the season. But after years of stifling play, that unit started to show signs of decline last season, giving up the seventh-most yards and ranking 17th in scoring.
Even if Rodgers returns for a reunion with McCarthy, Pittsburgh will hover around .500 for much of the season.
2026 projection: 8-9
San Francisco 49ers
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2025 record: 12-5
The San Francisco 49ers have a lot of ifs regarding the availability of their All-Pro and Pro Bowl players.
If Christian McCaffrey, Trent Williams, George Kittle and Mike Evans are mostly healthy, the 49ers can hang with any opponent in a scoring battle.
That said, Kittle is recovering from a torn Achilles entering his age-32 season. At 32 last year, Mike Evans missed nine games due to injuries. Late in the previous campaign, Williams strained his hamstring, which cost him time. McCaffrey bounced back from an injury-riddled 2024 term, but he has a lot of wear-and-tear on his body entering a 10th year in the pros.
You can also toss in Purdy's injury history as a legitimate concern. As a smaller-than-average quarterback, he's been banged up. The 6'1", 220-pound signal-caller missed eight games last year.
Head coach Kyle Shanahan believes Kittle could be ready to play in Week 1. Regardless, Purdy may feel pressure to increase his passing volume with an aging supporting cast.
San Francisco hired Raheem Morris to fill their defensive coordinator vacancy. He has a decent resume as a play-caller, but the 49ers need All-Pros Nick Bosa and Fred Warner back from season-ending injuries to field a stout unit.
In recent years, the 49ers have seemed to be a few injuries away from disaster. They're healthy enough to get the benefit of the doubt right now. Yet we should factor in the shaky availability of older veterans on the roster when projecting the team's win-loss record.
2026 projection: 9-8
Seattle Seahawks
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2025 record: 14-3
The Seattle Seahawks lost key offensive pieces to their Super Bowl-winning team. Offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak accepted the Las Vegas Raiders' head-coaching job. He took quarterbacks coach Andrew Janocko with him. Running back Kenneth Walker signed with the Kansas City Chiefs in free agency.
Also, remember, running back Zach Charbonnet is recovering from a torn ACL.
Coming over from the San Francisco 49ers, with a year as a run game coordinator on his resume, offensive coordinator Brian Fleury should be able to reshape the Seahawks' ground attack and squeeze production out of rookie first-rounder Jadarian Price and Emanuel Wilson, who was Josh Jacobs' backup for two years with the Green Bay Packers.
Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald has established himself as one of the league's best defensive play-callers. He can handle the loss of safety Coby Bryant and cornerback Riq Woolen in free agency.
Seattle invents itself with a new offensive coordinator, and its defense continues to play at a high level under Macdonald in another double-digit-win campaign. Though, as the reigning champions, the Seahawks will be tested as the league's gold standard, which may result in a few more losses than last year.
2026 projection: 11-6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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2025 record: 8-9
Todd Bowles will have to count his days as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach if the team doesn't improve on the defensive side of the ball.
Bowles is a defensive-minded play-calling lead skipper whose units have ranked 16th or worse in scoring for back-to-back seasons. If he can't optimize talent in an area of expertise, the 62-year-old could be in jeopardy of losing his job.
Entering the offseason, Tampa Bay had a glaring need for an edge-rusher. Linebacker Lavonte David retired, creating a void in the middle of the defense.
The Buccaneers selected pass-rusher Rueben Bain Jr. and linebacker Josiah Trotter within the first two rounds of the draft. Bowles has to turn both rookies into productive players this year.
Tampa Bay has the young talent at wide receiver to compensate for the loss of Mike Evans in free agency. Emeka Egbuka may blossom into a star. Tez Johnson, a 2025 seventh-round pick, showed flashes last season. The Buccaneers also selected wideout Ted Hurst in the third round of the draft.
New offensive coordinator Zac Robinson has the personnel to field a top-12 scoring offense. Meanwhile, Bain and Trotter should be early bloomers in Bowles' unit, buoying the Buccaneers back to the top of the NFC South.
2026 projection: 9-8 (NFC South division winner)
Tennessee Titans
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2025 record: 3-14
The Tennessee Titans gave Robert Saleh a second chance after he posted a 20-36 record as New York Jets head coach.
This time around, Saleh will call defensive plays, which is a positive given his expertise and track record with the San Francisco 49ers, who finished with the 13th-ranked scoring defense despite losing key players at every level of their unit last year.
Saleh hired Brian Daboll, who led the New York Giants to the playoffs in his first year as the team's head coach. As the Buffalo Bills' offensive coordinator, he worked well with quarterback Josh Allen in the early stages of his career.
Daboll can elevate the Titans' offense, with second-year pro Cam Ward as the centerpiece.
As a rookie last year, Ward showed flashes with an interim head coach. In his last five outings, he threw for eight touchdowns and an interception and did so with a bottom-tier pass-catching group led by a couple of rookie fourth-rounders, Elic Ayomanor and Chimere Dike.
Ward has an upgraded receiver room with rookie first-rounder Carnell Tate and wideout Wan'Dale Robinson, who recorded 92 catches for 1,014 yards and four touchdowns in Daboll's offense with the Giants last season.
Ward takes a moderate second-year leap, and the Titans make notable progress under a new coaching staff.
2026 projection: 7-10
Washington Commanders
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2025 record: 5-12
Quarterback Jayden Daniels' availability will have the biggest impact on the Washington Commanders' 2026 outlook. If he's mostly healthy, like he was in his 2024 rookie season, Washington will have a chance to win the division. Without him, the Commanders are a basement-dwelling team.
However, it's worth noting that Daniels struggled with a depleted supporting cast for seven games last year. He threw for eight touchdowns and three interceptions but only completed 60.6 percent of his passes, a significant drop-off from his 69 percent rate two years ago.
Like Daniels, star wide receiver Terry McLaurin battled injuries that sidelined him for several games. He finished with career lows across multiple receiving stat categories.
This offseason, the Commanders bolstered their pass-catching group by signing tight end Chig Okonkwo, running back Rachaad White and drafting Antonio Williams in the third round.
White and Okonkwo have multiple 50-plus-catch seasons on their resumes. Williams led the ACC in touchdown receptions in 2024. He could fill a void at the No. 2 wide receiver spot.
Daniels has to build a connection with his new pass-catchers, but he's shown he can use his running backs and tight ends in the aerial attack. New offensive coordinator David Blough must put it all together for him to succeed, though.
The Commanders needed to turn over an aging defense and bring in fresh talent. They accomplished that through free agency and the draft.
K'Lavon Chaisson and Odafe Oweh are in line to take on prominent roles on the edge. Linebacker Leo Chenal and safety Nick Cross have starting experience from their previous teams. Rookie first-rounder Sonny Styles has the potential to be a star with a well-rounded skill set.
Head coach Dan Quinn will field a younger, faster defense compared to last year's unit to complement an offense in transition.
However, like the Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC East, Washington has a tough 17-game slate with matchups against the NFC West and AFC South. The Commanders will be better than last year, but they're not on the same level as the top teams in those divisions.
2026 projection: 7-10
Maurice Moton covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @MoeMoton.
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