The Case for Each No. 1 Pick Candidate in the 2026 NHL Mock Draft
Across the 2025-2026 hockey season, there have really been three main names tossed around as potential first overall picks: Gavin McKenna, Ivar Stenberg and Keaton Verhoeff.
We've done Mock Drafts featuring scenarios in which each of them goes first overall, because there are multiple factors at play here. Their skill sets, obviously, but also who ends up with the first overall pick. Recency bias can also play a role.
There is also a scenario in which the first overall pick is none of these guys, because a team goes fully off board and selects someone their scouting staff fixated on hardcore. I think this has a low likelihood of happening this year compared to some other seasons. But I've learned to never underestimate NHL teams.
And usually when this happens, it isn't the guy at fourth or even fifth—it's someone else. So that's a fun scenario to keep in mind.
As a refresher: our latest mock draft.
The Case for Keaton Verhoeff
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I'm going to be frank with you straight away: there really isn't a case for Keaton Verhoeff at first overall anymore. Not from my perspective, and I'm the one who's trapped you in this hypothetical today.
However, if we were to make a case for Verhoeff based on what we've learned about him up to this point, I imagine we'd start off highlighting the fact that he is large—he's 6'4" and 212 pounds—and he's a right-shot defenseman. For some NHL teams, that alone would be enough. He also brings a high-end offensive skill set to the table. He wants the puck at all times, and he can be an explosive player.
Verhoeff, much like fellow top prospect Gavin McKenna, made the leap from the Western Hockey League to NCAA hockey in his draft year. I respect that move, and the mindset it takes to throw yourself into an entirely new situation in your draft year.
Especially one that comes with tougher and older opponents (I won't say bigger for Verhoeff specifically, because most of them probably aren't).
The Case Against Keaton Verhoeff
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The problem with using the "at his best" framing for Keaton Verhoeff is that I have grown ever more convinced across the back half of the season that we aren't going to get his best.
I came into the season thinking that he had size and mobility. I have spent the entire year since lowering my expectations in that area. He can't really move compared to other players; his skating feels stiff.
I noted two things in our last mock draft: that skating coaches exist for a reason, and that the place for big, lumbering, stay-at-home defensemen in the modern NHL seems to be disappearing. The former could help Verhoeff, but I question how much.
If it was only his skating that was an issue, I would defer to my aforementioned skating coaches note and give him some grace. But it isn't.
He's also become more likely to make mistakes that cost his team in the grand scheme of his game. Decreased mobility can add to that; if you can't move, you can't correct your mistake as quickly, or shut down an opponent's opportunity, or take advantage of their mistakes before they realize what you're doing.
At the end of the day, his engagement levels often leave me feeling like he just doesn't want to move or to correct those mistakes. Frustration on my end is definitely at play, but the factors that led to it are very real.
The Case for Gavin McKenna
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Being frank from the get-go, Gavin McKenna is my favorite player in this draft.
I've enjoyed watching him play for several years now, and at no point have I felt like he's going to fall off a cliff. (I've had frustrations, but that's a story for the next slide.)
I genuinely think he is going to take the lead long-term in terms of who is going to be the best NHLer.
McKenna is just brilliant. Calling him smart isn't strong enough. There's something so special about his vision and hockey IQ; the way that he's able to utilize that intelligence to make some truly incredible passes, and make them at a rate that far outstrips his peers, is really something to watch.
His skating is elite, with excellent agility and explosiveness that allow him to leverage his hockey IQ at top game speeds. He started the season with a horrible shooting percentage, but he finished the year with 15 goals.
He's just a dangerous player. And I have a lot of time for a guy who knows he could stay in the WHL and spend the season embarrassing opponents and putting up gaudy numbers, coasting to an easy top-pick status, and instead chooses to move to an environment that challenges him and exposes his weaknesses.
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The Case Against Gavin McKenna
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Boy, did McKenna have his biggest weakness exposed on the college hockey stage this season; he spent a good chunk of the year looking disengaged if he didn't have the puck.
I was getting frustrated with it as early as November. Moving to college hockey meant that he had the puck less often than he was used to when he was freewheeling all over the WHL with the Medicine Hat Tigers.
The part that was frustrating was watching him only half-heartedly engage in the backcheck, just coasting along and forechecking at much lower than his normal pace.
These things tend to hit harder when they're coming from a player whose brain is as elite as McKenna's. It's somehow less annoying to watch a player who isn't capable than it is to see someone who you know is processing the game at the highest level and just…not putting that knowledge into action with any urgency.
I will give credit where it is due and say that over the course of the second half of the season, he assuaged those concerns more than a bit. We've seen him step it up, getting much more involved in his own end, and even engaging physically.
I'm just still feeling a little wary. Maybe I'll get over it.
The Case for Ivar Stenberg
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It's a two-horse race for me at this point, and I would probably be happy with either of them, depending on the development environment. But let's talk about why Swedish forward Ivar Stenberg would make a great first overall pick—because there are few warts on his game, and any rebuilding team right now would be incredibly lucky to pick him up.
Stenberg is basically an Energizer Bunny with oodles of hockey skill and almost no off switch. His hockey sense is elite—even if it falls behind McKenna's, that's grading on an extreme curve here—and he's consistently a difference-maker for his team.
He's got a nice two-way game that is so easy to project to the NHL level, and there's some really nice creativity and deception in his playmaking, thanks to his elite vision. He pairs all that with quick hands that underpin the options he selects with his quick brain.
You can count on him anywhere on the ice to score, pass, or get you out of a jam. It's him and McKenna at the top, and then a gap between them and the next tier of players.
The Case Against Ivar Stenberg
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Much like McKenna, there's only one thing about Stenberg's game that I take issue with. For him, it's the fact that when he's under pressure or tired, his decision-making can sometimes revert to old, bad habits that lead to questionable choices.
This plays out in missing opportunities, keeping hold of the puck longer than he should, or just making lazy calls with where and how he's passing.
I will admit this is not as much of an issue as I was concerned about it being at the beginning of the season. In his own end, he can also wait for moments to come to him, rather than making them happen. It's not a glaring deficiency, just something I've noticed from time to time.
I will also note that his offensive production declined in the second half of the season, but only because he was on fire in the first half. He had to come back to earth sometime, and no one can produce at extreme rates every single game.
Who Should Be the First Overall Pick in the 2026 NHL Draft?
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You're not going to like it, but my answer has conditions; it's not a clear-cut matter. Can I pick two first overall picks?
Much like last year, when I noted that either Matthew Schaefer or Michael Misa would be a reasonable pick at first overall (something I stand by when thinking about long-term career success), there are two good answers.
I lean towards Gavin McKenna on personal preference. I'm a sucker for a really smart, slick winger who can embarrass his opponents, and I admire his willingness to challenge himself by jumping to a new league against bigger opponents in his draft year.
I lean towards Ivar Stenberg when I consider which player is currently more well-rounded. He might not be quite up to McKenna's level in terms of smarts, but his defensive engagement is more consistent.
For me, moving forward, I think who I make the call for when it comes to first overall will depend on who wins the lottery. Development is so key to a player's long-term success, and if a team that doesn't have the best track record in developing prospects, I'm going to hesitate to say they should pick McKenna.
There's a little more risk there if he's put into a bad situation. I do still think he's going to be the best NHL'er of the two long-term, but these questions aren't the same.
At this point, there are no circumstances under which I'd lean toward Keaton Verhoeff at No. 1.
He's played himself out of the conversation across the back half of the season for me, though there are multiple teams who would at the very least consider taking him first overall and perhaps even make that call on the day.
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