The Case for Each No. 1 Pick Candidate in the 2026 NHL Mock Draft

Across the 2025-2026 hockey season, there have really been three main names tossed around as potential first overall picks: Gavin McKenna, Ivar Stenberg, and Keaton Verhoeff. We've done mock drafts featuring scenarios where each of them goes first overall, because there are multiple factors at play here. Their skill sets, obviously, but also who ends up with the first overall pick. Recency bias can also play a role.

There is also a scenario where the first overall pick is none of these guys, because a team goes fully off board and selects someone their scouting staff fixated on hardcore. I will say that this season, I personally think this has a low likelihood of happening compared to some other seasons. But I've learned to never underestimate NHL teams. And usually when this happens it isn't the guy at fourth or even fifth — it's someone else. So that's a fun scenario to keep in mind.

As a refresher: our latest mock draft.

The Case for Keaton Verhoeff

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I'm going to be frank with you straight away: there really isn't a case for Keaton Verhoeff at first overall anymore. Not from my perspective, and I'm the one who's trapped you in this hypothetical today. But if we were to make a case for Verhoeff based on what we've learned about him up to this point, I imagine we'd start off highlighting the fact that he is large—he's 6'4" and 212 lbs—and he's a right-shot defenseman. For some NHL teams, that alone would be enough. He also brings a high-end offensive skill set to the table. He wants the puck at all times, and at his best he's an explosive player.

Verhoeff, much like fellow top prospect Gavin McKenna, made the leap from the Western Hockey League to NCAA hockey in his draft year. I really respect that move, and as I'll note when talking about McKenna, the mindset that it takes to throw yourself into an entirely new situation in your draft year. Especially one that comes with tougher and older opponents (I won't say bigger for Verhoeff specifically, because, well, most of them probably aren't).

The Case Against Keaton Verhoeff

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The problem with using the "at his best" framing that I try to highlight for every top prospect we discuss for Keaton Verhoeff is that I have grown ever more convinced across the back half of the season that we aren't going to get his best. I came into the season thinking that he had size and mobility. I have spent the entire year since lowering my expectations in that area. He can't really move compared to other players; his skating feels stiff. I noted two things in our last mock draft: that skating coaches exist for a reason, and that the place for big, lumbering, stay-at-home defensemen in the modern NHL seems to be disappearing. The former could help Verhoeff, but I question how much. 

If it was only his skating that was an issue, I would defer to my aforementioned skating coaches note and give him some grace. But it isn't. He's also grown more and more likely to make mistakes that cost his team in the grand scheme of his game. Decreased mobility can add to that; if you can't move, you can't correct your mistake as quickly, or shut down an opponent's opportunity, or take advantage of their mistakes before they realize what you're doing. And at the end of the day, his engagement levels often leave me feeling like he just doesn't want to move, or to correct those mistakes. Frustration on my end is definitely at play there, but the factors that led to that frustration are very real.

The Case for Gavin McKenna

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Again, being frank from the get-go: Gavin McKenna is my favorite player in this draft. I've enjoyed watching him play for several years now, and at no point have I felt like he's going to fall off a cliff. (I've gained frustrations, but that's a story for the next slide.) I genuinely think that long-term he is going to take the lead in terms of who is going to be the best NHLer. 

McKenna is just brilliant. Calling him smart isn't strong enough. There's something so special about his vision and hockey IQ; the way that he's able to utilize that intelligence to make some truly incredible passes, and make them at a rate that far outstrips his peers, is really something to watch. His skating is elite, with excellent agility and explosiveness that allow him to really take advantage of that hockey IQ at top game speeds. He started out the season with a horrible shooting percentage, but things started going in and he finished the year with 15 goals.

He's just a dangerous player. And as I mentioned with Verhoeff, I have a lot of time for a guy who knows he could stay in the WHL and spend the season embarrassing opponents and putting up gaudy numbers, coasting to an easy top pick status, and instead chooses to move to an environment that challenges him and exposes his weaknesses.

The Case Against Gavin McKenna

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Boy, did McKenna have his biggest weakness exposed on the college hockey stage this season; he spent a good chunk of the year looking disengaged if he didn't have the puck. You all remember me getting frustrated with it as early as November. Moving to college hockey meant that he had the puck less often than he was used to having it when he was freewheeling all over the WHL with the Medicine Hat Tigers. The part that was frustrating was watching him only half-heartedly engage in the backcheck, just coasting a long, and forechecking at much lower than his normal pace.

These things tend to hit harder and be more frustrating when they're coming with a player whose brain is as elite as McKenna's. It's somehow less annoying to watch a player who isn't capable than it is to see someone who you know is processing the game at the highest level and just…not putting that knowledge into action with any urgency.

I will give credit where it is due and say that over the course of the second half of the season, he assuaged those concerns more than a bit. We've seen him step it up, getting much more involved in his own end, and even engaging physically. I'm just still feeling a little wary. Maybe I'll get over it.

The Case for Ivar Stenberg

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It's a two-horse race for me at this point and I would probably be happy with either of them, depending on the development environment. But let's talk about why specifically Swedish forward Ivar Stenberg would make a great first overall pick — because frankly, there are very few warts on his game and any rebuilding team right now would be incredibly lucky to pick him up.

Stenberg is basically an Energizer Bunny with oodles of hockey skill and almost no off switch. His hockey sense is elite—even if, for me, it falls behind McKenna's, that's grading on an extreme curve here—and he's consistently a difference maker for his team. He's got a really nice two-way game that is so easy to project to the NHL level, and there's some really nice creativity and deception in his playmaking, thanks to his elite vision. He pairs all that with quick hands that underpin the options he selects with his quick brain.

You can count on him anywhere on the ice, in any sort of situation, to score or pass or get you out of a jam. It's him and McKenna at the top and a gap between them and the next tier of players, make no mistake.

The Case Against Ivar Stenberg

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Much like McKenna, there's really only one thing about Stenberg's game that I take issue with. For him, it's the fact that when he's under pressure or he's tired, his decision-making can sometimes revert back to old bad habits that lead to questionable choices. This plays out in missing opportunities, keeping hold of the puck longer than he should, or just making lazy calls with where and how he's passing. I will admit this is not as much of an issue as I was concerned about it being at the beginning of the season. In his own end, he can also wait for moments to come to him, rather than making them happen. It's not a glaring deficiency, just something that I've noticed from time to time.

I will also note that his offensive production declined across the second half of the season, but that was really only the case because he was on fire in the first half. He had to come back to earth sometime, and no one can be producing at extreme rates every single game.

Who Should Be the First Overall Pick in the 2026 NHL Draft?

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You're not going to like it, but my answer has conditions; it's not a clear-cut matter. Can I pick two first overall picks? Much like last year, when I noted that either Matthew Schaefer or Michael Misa would be a reasonable pick at first overall (something I stand by when thinking about long-term career success), there are two good answers. 

I lean Gavin McKenna when it comes to personal preference. I'm a sucker for a really smart, slick winger who can embarrass his opponents, and I really admire his willingness to challenge himself by jumping to a brand new league against bigger opponents in his draft year. I lean Ivar Stenberg when I consider which player is currently more well-rounded. He might not be quite up to McKenna's level in terms of smarts, but his defensive engagement is more consistent. 

For me, moving forward, I think who I make the call for when it comes to first overall will depend on who wins the lottery. Development is so key to a player's long-term success, and if a team who doesn't have the best track record in developing prospects gets that first overall pick, I'm going to hesitate to say that they should pick McKenna. There's a little more risk there if he's put into a bad situation. I do still think he's going to be the best NHLer of the two long-term, but to me these questions aren't the same.

There are no circumstances under which I lean Keaton Verhoeff. He's played himself out of the conversation across the back half of the season for me personally, though as I've made clear in my mock drafts, I think there are multiple teams who would at the very least consider taking him first overall and perhaps even make that call on the day.