Early Scouting Report on Projected 2026 No. 1 NHL Draft Pick Gavin McKenna
There's been a lot of chatter about Gavin McKenna this week, and we're right on time for the "just asking questions" brigade to start pondering whether or not he actually deserves the first overall status that largely the same crowd blessed him with two years ago.
This is why I don't like crowning top prospects that far out. (See: Lafreniere, Alexis.) But McKenna has played two full WHL seasons, plus the 16 games he played before he was eligible to join the WHL full-time (he had 18 points in those). So we've got a pretty good idea of who he is as a player. Let's jump in and look at whatever the lucky lottery-winning team is getting in McKenna, as of right now—November 2025.
Player: Gavin McKenna
Position: Left wing
Team: Penn State Nittany Lions (NCAA)
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 165 lbs
Points: 14 points (4 goals, 10 assists) in 12 games
Some quick notes on McKenna: as noted above, he's been touted as the consensus number one for a while. Some people are beginning to get bored with that and look elsewhere, and some of them even have valid reasons that we'll get into in a couple of slides.
McKenna decided to jump from the WHL, a major-junior league that plays 68 games per season, to the NCAA, a college hockey league that plays 40 games per season. NCAA games are more spaced out, while major-junior schedules more closely resemble those of a professional league (understandable, as NCAA players are student-athletes and—allegedly—take classes during the week). He's playing against not just older players in the NCAA but bigger, more experienced players. He's adjusting not only to a new environment and new teammates but to a completely new style of play and approach to the season.
At the time of writing, he's recorded 14 points in 12 games, including 4 goals and 10 assists. That's good for 14th place in college hockey, and fourth on his own team. Not really what you'd expect, but as I noted above, it's a completely different league. He has recorded 48 shots on goal, good for second on the team, something that probably isn't surprising to anyone who has seen him play.
McKenna's Strengths
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Gavin McKenna's biggest strength is, without question, his passing ability. He is a special playmaker, even when filtering for the best playmakers in the NCAA. Mitch Brown at EPRinkside has hand-tracked data showing that McKenna is setting up scoring chances "at an historic rate".
Per Brown:
"He's shot or set up a higher percentage of his team's 5-on-5 offence than any other NCAA draft-year player by a gap that would be larger had it been compared to their results at the same stage of the season versus the end."
I want y'all to remember that when we start looking at his weaknesses, critique is meant to highlight what we want to see to make McKenna a better player, not to tear him down.
Basically, calling McKenna a play-driver is an understatement. He's so dangerous with the puck, particularly along the wall, and the way that he can control the flow of the game with his handling is unreal. He's so precise and deceptive. His skating isn't too shabby either; elite explosiveness and fluidity, along with terrific edgework, underpin his offensive skill. He's able to stymie opponents, getting a pass off before they realize he's not going in the direction they think he is.
McKenna isn't only a passer. He's been throwing everything he can on net, with 48 shots on goal on the season and an innumerable number of chances outside of that. He's playing big minutes; last weekend, he logged over 22 minutes per game against Michigan State. Unsurprisingly, those minutes are coming at even-strength and on the power play, and most of his scoring chances are coming during those power-play minutes.
He has been having terrible luck with his on-ice shooting percentage. This is the guy who produced at a 2.3 points-per-game pace last season. If his shooting percentage were even around the NCAA average, he would certainly have higher production, and maybe we would be talking about him in a somewhat less concerned tone.
But maybe McKenna's terrible shooting percentage is a blessing in disguise, because it's exposed his biggest weakness.
McKenna's Weaknesses
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Back in July, I said I didn't think that McKenna would have any trouble transitioning to the NCAA overall.
Quite frankly, I should've taken a moment to dive deeper into that subject and anticipated this particular area of concern: his play away from the puck. But the issues in question weren't quite as glaring in the WHL as they are in college hockey.
Time and space are much harder to find on NCAA ice than they were in the WHL, because he's playing against bigger, stronger opponents, so he has the puck less than he's used to. And instead of going after it to get it back, he just kind of coasts along on backchecks and only half-heartedly participates in the forecheck.
Frankly, I think that McKenna should see the way that this particular weakness has been exposed as an opportunity. Too often, we see major-junior players run roughshod over their leagues, scoring at obscene levels and garnering all kinds of praise — and then they make the jump to the NHL, and the holes in their game that everyone glossed over before, or didn't even notice, are suddenly in the spotlight. This is probably what would've happened to McKenna if he'd stayed in the WHL.
By coming to the NCAA, he's gained a pretty significant opportunity: time to build strength in the weight room to add muscles, so he's less anxious about contact away from the puck, and time to work with the coaching staff on ways to deepen his urgency overall and stop disengaging with play when the puck isn't on his stick.
For me, it boils down to: you're dangerous along the wall and on the rush when you have the puck. Please take the opportunity and begin making a habit of jumping in on the forecheck, diving into battles, and being dangerous without it. The ability is there. We'll see if the desire is as well.
Pro Comparison
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You may have seen people compare Gavin McKenna to Sidney Crosby or Connor McDavid because of their comparably absurd high-scoring rates at a young age, but that's honestly a lazy, reductive comparison. You may hear Patrick Kane, just because of the whole wunderkind high-scoring winger thing, but their playing styles are very different. Connor Bedard isn't quite right, as he plays center to McKenna's wing, but I don't hate it either.
My gut currently says Mitch Marner, and it's entirely because of McKenna's passing abilities. He's just a really special, skilled passer and puck handler, in a way that reminds me of Marner's ability to slow down the game for himself and spot seams his opponents haven't realized yet. I cannot highlight that aspect of McKenna's game enough, especially when it comes to deception—feints, fakes, the way he can put the puck through his feet when he needs to. I think Marner's style is more patient than McKenna's, but that's probably just the experience gap and the fact that Marner's pre-draft season was a decade ago.
I'll be back with a firmer answer on this later in the season, but we've got an archetype to work with, at least.
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Draft Outlook
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For me, even with the concerns I outlined previously, I would still take Gavin McKenna first overall as of November 2025. The upside is too overwhelming to pass up, and the weaknesses are things that he can address. The question isn't whether he's capable of addressing them; it's whether he will. That's going to be the most significant deciding factor for me, because more than talent, I think it speaks to character and work ethic—alright, you've been roundly praised for two years and now people are pointing out your flaws on a national stage. What are you going to do about it?
Most people I've seen scouring prospect spaces feel the same way about still having McKenna at first (though not all). But with that in mind, we have to acknowledge that until he begins showing more defensive engagement and urgency without the puck, he's leaving the door wide open. Other players are hot on his heels. For me, I'm paying the most attention to Windsor Spitfires forward Ethan Belchetz. Other people are touting McKenna's fellow NCAA player and University of North Dakota defenseman Keaton Verhoeff, and understandably so.
We'll check in later in the season to see if he's made the necessary changes and held on to his spot or if we, too, are beginning to let our eyes wander.
.png?w=480 "Playoff Winners and Losers")
