2026 NHL Draft Scouting Report on Ivar Stenberg
If you're a hockey fan who hasn't heard the name Ivar Stenberg yet this season, congratulations. I assume you support the Colorado Avalanche.
All season long, I've been keeping an eye on Swedish winger Ivar Stenberg as probably the most likely candidate to oust Canadian center Gavin McKenna from that coveted first overall draft slot. Watching Stenberg in the SHL, it's clear that this is a player who, even at 18, can already hold his own against older men with years of professional hockey experience.g I genuinely think that he could come into the league next season and be a difference-maker on the right team. I don't think it would be quite to the level Matthew Schaefer has managed this year, but it's useful nonetheless.
I'm a big fan of McKenna, and regardless of how our rankings shake out, that won't change, but I won't lie: I'm the closest I've been so far to moving Stenberg into that top spot. I still haven't made a decision and likely won't until I sit down to work on our next Big Board (keep an eye out for that post-trade deadline). But it felt important to mention, if for no reason other than to highlight the strength of Stenberg's play all season.
Player: Ivar Stenberg
Position: Left wing (/right wing)
Team: Frolunda HC
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 181 lbs
Points: 28 points (7 goals, 21 assists) in 30 games
At the time of writing, we're a little more than halfway through the season. Stenberg currently has 28 points in 30 games, including 7 goals and 21 assists. He also recorded 10 points in 7 games during Sweden's gold medal run at this year's World Junior Championships, where he was named one of the top three players on his team.
Getting to watch him against quite a few of his peers in this draft class, and alongside several others (most notably defenseman Viggo Bjorck), was incredibly valuable. I'll never change my mind about rankings or about a prospect in general based on one two-week tournament, but I also won't say it's not important. After all, draft rankings are seeing how these guys measure up against each other; watching them play against each other is an incredibly helpful context.
Stenberg's Strengths
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At the time of writing this article, Ivar Stenberg is producing at a 0.93 points-per-game rate. Throughout the season, he's stayed very close to that point-per-game mark. I cannot stress to you enough that draft-eligible players in the SHL just do not do this, as a rule. If I'm watching a draft-eligible forward in the SHL and he finishes the season producing at a 0.70-0.75 points-per-game rate, I'm blown away. Stenberg saw the benchmark, ripped it up, and threw it in the trash.
It is his hockey IQ and intelligence that have allowed him to close the gap with McKenna in playmaking. This was something that I still had a question about when we first started playing around with rankings back in the summer. I actually briefly ranked Stenberg below defenseman Keaton Verhoeff at that point because of my questions; Stenberg quickly answered them once the season started. His vision is elite, as is the rate at which he's able to process his options on the ice, finding opportunities before his opponents have a clue what's going on. He's got quick hands to pair with his quick mind, and he's an excellent skater.
His small-area work, particularly his skating and stickwork, really stood out to me at the World Juniors. It felt like every time I turned around, he was making some sort of impressive move in close to either protect the puck from an opponent or outright take it away, and his evasiveness in those tight areas just further bolsters that skill.
At the end of the day, Stenberg is a player you can count on anywhere on the ice, in any situation. That factor alone will be enough of a separator for some teams if we don't see McKenna's physical game or engagement away from the puck improve. He has an excellent motor, is constantly engaged with play, and he's got a pretty great shot, too.
Stenberg's Weaknesses
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Every player has things to work on; you basically never see a guy come into the NHL Draft with scouts saying, "He's perfect, actually, no notes." I mentioned in November that I wanted to see more consistency from Stenberg. His offensive output remaining so high across the season alone has done a lot to assuage any concerns I had in that area. I don't feel like there are nights when he disappears.
That being said, there are some things I want to watch. I know I called out his decision-making as a plus, and it really can be. But when he gets tired, or when he's under a lot of pressure, he can revert to old, bad habits—hanging on to the puck for too long, making lazy passes, missing opportunities. Trying to force plays when frustrated or under pressure will always be a problem for high-end players like this, but we've seen it less recently than we did early in the season.
Another "weakness", such as it is, is that several of his tools are high-end but not elite; I don't know that this is a weakness per se, rather only in comparison to other players.
Pro Comparison
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I had a really hard time coming up with a player comp for Stenberg for a couple of reasons, one being that I feel like I never quite pin player comps down right. They're really only useful for helping the general audience understand who a prospect could potentially turn out to be. Younger players are sometimes better for this because they tend to be in their prime and fresher in people's minds.
With that in mind, I think for now I'm going to pull Lucas Raymond as a player comp for Stenberg. The primary reason? Stenberg's cerebral and intelligent approach to offense. I remember when Raymond was drafted; one of the standout aspects of his game to me was his hockey sense. It's much the same with Stenberg. I love the way he thinks the game, the way he's able to not just see possibilities at top speeds but process his options. I do think he'll be a better NHLer than Raymond at the end of the day, but stylistically it's a useful comparison.
Draft Outlook
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While I still believe that in terms of pure skill alone, McKenna comes out on top, I think there's a pretty solid chance that we see Ivar Stenberg go first overall. And I won't argue with it if it happens. It's really nice to have more than one guy in a draft class who feels like a sensible first overall pick, especially since this draft class isn't looking as strong overall as many may have thought coming into the season.
If he does not go first overall, I expect to see him off the board immediately at second. There's an outside chance we have someone galaxy-brain it and go entirely off the board at the top of the draft—I've learned not to underrate the possibility of this happening at any given time in the top 10—but I don't think that's going to happen with a player like Stenberg. It's far more likely to me that McKenna has a Shane Wright scenario than Stenberg.
