NASCAR Sprint Cup: Complete Preview, Prediction for Cheez-It 355 at Watkins Glen

Last year’s Sprint Cup race at Watkins Glen was one for the ages. Who can forget the battle in the last couple of laps between Marcos Ambrose and AJ Allmendinger?

Both men had plenty on the line—and it was the same thing for both: A win would put them in the Chase for the Sprint Cup.

As it turned out, Allmendinger got the better of Ambrose—just barely—and held on to win and not only make the Chase but grab his first career Sprint Cup victory in the process.

Ambrose has since returned to his native Australia, but Allmendinger finds himself in the exact same situation in this Sunday’s Cheez-It 355 at The Glen.

There are plenty of other drivers who will be looking to emulate what Allmendinger did last year and punch their own ticket into the Chase, including Jeff Gordon, Kasey Kahne, Jamie McMurray, Tony Stewart and more.

Stewart has an excellent chance of breaking his season-long slump with a win. He’s won five times at The Glen.

However, Stewart could be majorly distracted Sunday, as that marks the one-year anniversary of the sprint car race incident he was involved in that led to the death of Kevin Ward Jr.

And let’s not discount Allmendinger. Even without Ambrose at his heels, he is still arguably one of the best road course racers on the Sprint Cup circuit.

No matter who wins, it’s likely Sunday is going to be one heck of a race yet again.

By the Numbers: Watkins Glen International

Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

Former NASCAR driver Marcos Ambrose will not be able to give AJ Allmendinger another run for his money Sunday at Watkins Glen, as Ambrose is back racing in his native Australia.

Cheez-It 355

Place: Watkins Glen International

Date: Sunday, Aug. 9

Time: 2 p.m. (ET)

TV: NBCSN, 1 p.m. (ET)

Radio: Motor Racing Network, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio

Distance: 90 laps, 220.5 miles (2.458-mile road course)

Defending winner: AJ Allmendinger

Youngest winner: Kyle Busch on Aug. 10, 2008 (23 years, three months, eight days)

Oldest winner: Geoff Bodine on Aug. 11, 1996 (47 years, three months, 24 days)

Youngest pole winner: Kyle Busch on Aug. 15, 2011 (26 years, three months, 13 days)

Oldest pole winner: Morgan Shepherd on Aug. 13, 1989 (47 years, 10 months, one day)

Most wins: Tony Stewart (five)

Most poles: Dale Earnhardt, Jeff Gordon, Mark Martin (three each)

Most top-fives: Mark Martin (12)

Most top-10s: Mark Martin (16)

Lead lap finishes: Mark Martin (21)

Laps completed: Mark Martin (1,941)

Laps led: Jeff Gordon (262)

Most race starts at Watkins Glen: Jeff Gordon, Terry Labonte, Mark Martin, Michael Waltrip (22 each)

Race record: Mark Martin, 103.030 mph (Aug. 13, 1995)

Qualifying record: Marcos Ambrose, 129.491 mph (Aug. 9, 2014)

Best average start: Tony Stewart (6.286)

Best average finish: Scott Pruett (5.800)

Track notes

* Total number of races at Watkins Glen: 32.
* Total number of different pole winners in Watkins Glen history: 19
* Races won from pole: Nine
* Last race won from pole: Kyle Busch (Aug. 10, 2008)
* Number of race winners at Watkins Glen: 19
* DNFs (most): Joe Nemechek (seven in 19 starts) 
* DNFs (least): Mark Martin (zero in 22 starts) 

Statistical information provided by NASCAR Media Relations

Key Storylines

Alex Gallardo/Associated Press

Is this finally Jeff Gordon’s breakthrough race?

This is the 23rd start at Watkins Glen, which will set a track record. With his third-place finish this past Sunday at Pocono, Gordon renewed hopes among his fans that he can still win a race in the next five events to lock himself into the Chase for the Sprint Cup. After falling short so many times this season, can Sunday finally be his turn?

Can the derailed Kyle Busch express get back on track?

To be fair, Busch’s train wasn’t necessarily derailed at Pocono. He and his team gambled that there was enough fuel left in the tank of the No. 18. Unfortunately, they were wrong and Busch ran out of gas with a half-lap left and ultimately finished 21st. Given that he’s a past winner at Watkins Glen, look for Busch to get right back on the winning track. What happens if he goes head-to-head with Allmendinger in the closing laps? It could make last year’s race finish look like a go-kart race.

Can Tony Stewart finally break through?

If there ever was a place for Stewart to snap his terrible season-long slump, Watkins Glen is the place. He owns the record for most wins by a single driver (five) and seems to know every inch of the 2.458-mile surface. But he also may be distracted by Sunday marking the one-year anniversary of the Kevin Ward Jr. tragedy. If Stewart wins, it would be a great tribute if he were to dedicate the victory to Ward’s memory.

Can lightning strike twice for AJ Allmendinger?

To borrow from an old song, “He did it before and he can do it again, hey!” Yes, Allmendinger comes into Sunday’s race seemingly with a target on his back for two reasons: one, he’s the defending race winner and, two, with the departure of Marcos Ambrose back to his native Australia, Allmendinger has been passed the mantle of the best road course driver in the Cup series. However—and that's a big however—I'm going against the grain and not picking Allmendinger as a favorite because of the overall struggles he and his team have had this season. Last season, things seemed to build to a crescendo prior to Watkins Glen, and then the Dinger came through. Given the shortcomings the No. 47 team has had this season to date, there's no crescendo, just concern about what's happened.

Will Jimmie Johnson finally crack the Watkins Glen mystery?

The next victory for six-time Sprint Cup champion Jimmie Johnson will be his 75th. What better place for him to do so than at Watkins Glen, where, surprisingly, Johnson has never won a Sprint Cup race. Watkins Glen is one of only four Cup tracks JJ has yet to take a checkered flag (the others are Chicago, Homestead and Kentucky).

Drivers to Watch

Matt Slocum/Associated Press

Kevin Harvick

After last Sunday’s fluke DNF at Pocono, when the engine in Kevin Harvick’s car expired early on, look for the driver of the No. 4 Chevrolet to get back on the right track Sunday. Harvick is a former winner at Watkins Glen and a win would positively confirm that his Pocono showing (42nd place) was indeed a fluke, without a doubt.

Greg Biffle

After his second-best finish (and second top-five) of the season, Greg Biffle fans have to wonder if his fifth-place showing at Pocono was a fluke or not. Roush Fenway Racing has had a terrible season collectively on the Cup side of things. Could Biffle’s Pocono finish be a sign that the organization has started to turn the corner?

Martin Truex Jr.

Martin Truex Jr. was yet another victim of the fuel mileage wars Sunday at Pocono, running out of fuel with two laps to go. After finishing fourth the week before at Indianapolis, it seems such an effort was invariably wasted with his 19th-place showing at Pocono. Will Truex, who has one career road course win to his credit (Sonoma), be able to finally win a road course race on the opposite end of the country?

Matt Kenseth

Admittedly, this is a real long shot. One thing Matt Kenseth will never win great honors for is his performance to date on road courses. Frankly, he’s terrible—and likely would be the first to admit it. In 31 combined starts between Sonoma and Watkins Glen, Kenseth has zero wins, zero top-fives and just six top-10 finishes. But after his win at Pocono, he may just have some renewed vigor to finally earn some road course success. If guys like Dale Earnhardt Jr. can go from poor to decent road course drivers, there’s still hope to be held out for Kenseth.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Like Kenseth, Dale Earnhardt Jr. used to hate road course racing—not to mention he was pretty bad at it. But over the last three or four years, Junior has begun to show significant improvement. He loves to bang fenders, and given how road rage is essentially legal on road courses, don’t be surprised to see Earnhardt have a strong run on Sunday—provided he stays out of the way of other cars and isn’t caught up in someone else’s calamity.

Favorites

Derik Hamilton/Associated Press

Kyle Busch

After winning three straight races and four of five, Busch was sidelined at Pocono due to an empty gas tank when he needed just a few more drops to make it to the finish line. While miffed at how the race ended, it also will likely serve as motivation for Busch on Sunday. Can you say “winner of four of the last five and five of the last six?” Oh yes, one other thing: Even if Busch doesn’t win, don’t be surprised to see him finally reach the top 30, which would set him up to be qualified for the Chase (if he can remain in the top 30 after Richmond).

Jeff Gordon

Yes, picking Gordon has become a weekly exercise. But the law of averages has to eventually play out in his favor, especially at a track like Pocono, where he does very well. Gordon will be making a track-record 23rd start in his final appearance at The Glen. That in and of itself makes a sentimental pick. But history hasn’t been kind to him: his last win in upstate New York came in 2001. In the 13 races since then, Gordon has managed just two top-10 finishes. With finishes of 21st in 2012, 36th in 2013 and 34th last year, he’s long overdue to reach Victory Lane.

Kurt Busch

Call this a hunch or a wild card. Even though the elder Busch brother has never won at Watkins Glen and has a mediocre overall record there (two top-fives, six top-10s in 14 starts), he has the car, the team and the talent to get him around The Glen and into Victory Lane. Busch has one win at Sonoma, so he’s proven he can win on a road course.

Joey Logano

We don’t want to rub it in, but Joey Logano was the guy who started the whole run of empty-tankers (ran out of fuel) at Pocono, falling three laps short. But that doesn’t mean Logano had a bad race. On the contrary, he led 97 of the event’s 160 laps. Had it not been for his tank running dry, Logano likely would have finally earned what he’s been searching for since Atlanta: his second Cup win of 2015, to go along with his season-opening victory in the Daytona 500. We like that Logano has a chip on his shoulder. It will make it that much easier to see him reach Victory Lane.

Brad Keselowski

Brad Keselowski is in the same boat as his teammate, Joey Logano, as both have just one win this season. But Keselowski almost won Sunday at Pocono (finished second) and showed he may be on the verge of getting back to Victory Lane, regardless of how many drivers ran out of fuel. Keselowski won a series-high six races last season. If he wants to come close to that mark again this year, well, he better get going. And given Keselowski has become a good road course driver but has yet to earn a win at either Watkins Glen or Sonoma, a win Sunday would definitely start a whole new chapter in his Cup racing annals.

Dark-Horse Pick: Tony Stewart

R Brent Smith/Associated Press

In most other instances, Tony Stewart would be among the favorites to win this race.

After all, he owns the Watkins Glen record for most wins by a driver (five). But the one thing that prevented him from being a favorite is, naturally, the terrible season he’s had thus far.

However, we’ve seen some signs of promise from Stewart in the last few weeks, both in practice and qualifying.

The next step is a strong finish and potentially even a win.

If there’s any place Stewart is going to win in the five remaining pre-Chase races, it’s The Glen.

And the Winner Is: Kyle Busch

Matthew O'Haren-USA TODAY Sports

The younger Busch brother is a man on a mission to not only reach the top 30 and become eligible for the Chase but keep winning.

The reason is simple: If he can overtake Jimmie Johnson (who also has four wins heading into Watkins Glen), Busch could conceivably earn the top seed heading into the Chase once the points are reset following Richmond.

Plus, it helps that Busch has an outstanding record at Watkins Glen: two wins, one pole and four top-five and eight top-10 finishes in 10 starts. It’s time for Busch to get back on the winner’s express on Sunday.

Follow me on Twitter @JerryBonkowski.