Odds For Every 2026 Men's Sweet 16 Team To Win NCAA Championship
In lieu of a Cinderella story in the Sweet 16 of the 2026 men's NCAA tournament, we're left with 16 teams who plausibly could win it all.
Our national championship odds for each of the remaining 16 teams are based on a combination of how good each squad was during the regular season, how it has looked through one week of NCAA tourney games and how difficult its remaining path is.
That said, all of the remaining paths are brutal. There's usually a broken region that results in maybe the fifth-best team left in the field feeling like the favorite to win it all just because it really ought to reach the Final Four, but that is not the case this year.
Teams are listed in ascending order of likelihood to win the title. Odds sum to 100 percent and are not necessarily intended to reflect actual betting lines, which typically sum to around 130 percent.
Texas Longhorns (No. 11 Seed, West Regional)
1 of 16
The Road Ahead
Texas broke some brackets, but it hasn't caught any breaks of its own on the remaining path to glory. The Longhorns will need to get through No. 2 seed Purdue and likely No. 1 seed Arizona just to reach the Final Four, where there may well be two more No. 1 seeds standing in their way in Michigan and Duke. Good luck, Longhorns.
Reason to Buy
For a team that was merely 18-14 a week ago, Texas does a lot of things well. The Longhorns rebound at a high level and generally have an efficient offense led by four players who average better than 13 points per game. And though a No. 11 seed has never even made it to the national championship game, there's something to be said for getting into a zone and essentially playing with house money.
Reason to Sell
Without a close runner-up, this is the worst defense left in the field. Prior to this hot week of three nail-biting wins, Texas had lost five of its last six games, largely due to hapless D. Florida, Arkansas and Georgia collectively scored at will against the Longhorns, and their defense wasn't much better in the back-to-back losses to Oklahoma and Ole Miss to end their pre-tournament season.
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Physicality reigns supreme. As Sean Miller so eloquently put it in tongue-in-cheek fashion back in January, "(Texas) will foul the living s*** out of you." And when the Longhorns win, it tends to be in the paint, on the glass and/or at the free-throw line. The more physical the game, the more likely they are to continue pulling off upsets.
Title Odds: +20000
Iowa Hawkeyes (No. 9 Seed, South Regional)
2 of 16
The Road Ahead
"Iowa vs. Nebraska for a spot in the Elite Eight" is definitely not something anyone could have dreamed up before the season began, yet here we are with these Big Ten rivals squaring off for the third time in less than six weeks. The winner either gets another Big Ten foe in Illinois or what is effectively a road game against Houston in Houston. Technically, there's a path for Iowa to go through Nebraska, Illinois, Michigan State, and Michigan/Purdue to win it all.
Reason to Buy
Well, they just beat the No. 1 seed reigning champs. That's as good a reason as any to believe in a team. However, the great thing about the Hawkeyes is that they are going to force you to play their snail-paced game, whether you like it or not. And when they're scoring efficiently and/or forcing turnovers the way that they can, they're capable of beating any team in the country.
Reason to Sell
Iowa lost seven of its final 10 games before the tournament, including a pair of terrible missteps against Maryland and Penn State that left everyone questioning whether this team deserved to dance at all. The Hawkeyes also ended up with no wins away from home against the tournament field, which made those opening weekend victories over Clemson and Florida—more so the latter than the former—feel very out of character for a team that did not travel well all season.
Will Cut Down the Nets If...
They continue shutting down the opposition's primary big man. Clemson's Nick Davidson played 30 minutes against Iowa, finishing with eight points, one rebound and four fouls. Florida's Rueben Chinyelu looked even more helpless with no points, one rebound and four fouls in his 19 minutes of action. If Iowa can even remotely do that to Rienk Mast, Chris Cenac and Cameron Boozer, it's liable to shock the world a few more times.
Title Odds: +15000
Alabama Crimson Tide (No. 4 Seed, Midwest Regional)
3 of 16
The Road Ahead
As far as Vegas is concerned, Alabama is the biggest underdog in the Sweet 16, getting 9.5 points in what could be a 97-88 type of mile-a-minute affair with Michigan. But if the Crimson Tide shoots the lights out and pulls off that upset, their title odds would shrink from around +10000 down closer to +1000 in a hurry, because there aren't many teams in the country who could stifle this offense.
Reason to Buy
No one can score quite like Alabama does. The Crimson Tide suffered a bizarre 80-79 loss to Ole Miss in their SEC tournament opener, but they've locked back in for the tournament that actually matters, scoring 90 against each of Hofstra and Texas Tech. There seems to be a five-minute stretch of every game in which they simply cannot be stopped.
Reason to Sell
Though Alabama has had 15 games this season in which it made at least 11 three-pointers at a success rate of at least 37 percent, it still lost five of those, thanks to a defense that simply isn't good. The Crimson Tide rarely generate turnovers, and they are by far the worst defensive rebounding team among the 16 still standing. Between their 21-point loss to Arizona and 23-point loss at Florida, they allowed 37 offensive rebounds while forcing just six turnovers.
Will Cut Down the Nets If...
The offense continues to fire on every cylinder. Alabama is now 23-1 this season when scoring at least 89 points. And even in that one loss, it's frankly a miracle that they got to 90 at Vanderbilt on a night when primary big man Aiden Sherrell was unavailable and Labaron Philon Jr. played just 20 minutes due to full-body cramps. We'd like to see Alabama play some defense, but it might not be necessary.
Title Odds: +10000
Tennessee Volunteers (No. 6 Seed, Midwest Regional)
4 of 16
The Road Ahead
Tennessee drew what is arguably the most vulnerable of the four No. 2 seeds, as Joshua Jefferson's status for Iowa State is up in the air. And if he doesn't play, this Volunteers frontcourt could have a field day. The problem is they would most likely run into Michigan in the Elite Eight, which is a game where this frontcourt could have much more of a nightmare.
Reason to Buy
Though this Tennessee defense isn't quite the top-five unit it had been over the previous five seasons, it's still pretty darn good, allowing fewer than 70 points per game for the year. But the Volunteers' even greater strength is their offensive rebounding percentage of 44.8. Not only does that rank No. 1 in the nation, but it's the highest such mark since Old Dominion landed at 44.9 percent in 2010-11.
Reason to Sell
Despite generating all of those second chances, there are times when it feels like Tennessee couldn't put the ball in the hoop even if the opposing team just sat down on defense. And while the Vols are 23-3 when shooting at least 43 percent from the field, they've gone 1-8 in those other games that rear their ugly head a bit too often.
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Ja'Kobi Gillespie and Nate Ament ball out. Tennessee's defense is going to show up, as is its prowess on the glass. But it's the dynamic duo that will determine this team's ceiling, as the Volunteers—with the exception of that 99-94 overtime classic against Purdue and Carsen Edwards in 2019—always get eliminated in games where the offense falls short of averaging one point per possession. If Gillespie and Ament are cooking, this team can keep winning.
Title Odds: +7500
Arkansas Razorbacks (No. 4 Seed, West Regional)
5 of 16
The Road Ahead
The toughest game left on Arkansas' possible title path is the next one, drawing Arizona in the Sweet 16. Threes are worth more than twos, but can the Razorbacks possibly make enough triples to make up for all of the deuces this frontcourt is going to allow against the Wildcats? Survive that one and they would probably draw Purdue for the right to face Michigan. Just one super-efficient offense after another.
Reason to Buy
Darius Acuff Jr. is the second coming of Kemba Walker that we have been searching for over the past 15 years. In five games played since the beginning of the SEC tournament, the Razorbacks' freshman phenom has averaged 30.2 points and 7.2 assists, anchoring an offense averaging 90.4 points during that stretch. And that's not a new development. It has just been a little extra ridiculous as of late.
Reason to Sell
As great as Acuff is on offense, that's about how mediocre he is (and Arkansas is as a whole) on defense, allowing 88.8 points over its last 11 games. The 117-115 double OT game at Alabama and the 111-77 loss at Florida are inflating that average, but Arkansas also hasn't held a foe below 75 points since before Valentine's Day. They needed all of Acuff's 36 points to survive that upset bid from High Point on Saturday night.
Will Cut Down the Nets If...
They can play some complete games down the stretch. Offense is wonderful, but most of the teams left in the field play great offense, too. And with the exception of being Vanderbilt's kryptonite for some reason, Arkansas has offered almost no resistance when facing the caliber of foe it would draw the rest of the way on a title run. If they can dig deep on that end by staying in front of drivers and/or getting bailed out by Trevon Brazile and Malique Ewin's shot-blocking, maybe John Calipari can win another title.
Title Odds: +6000
Nebraska Cornhuskers (No. 4 Seed, South Regional)
6 of 16
The Road Ahead
Up next is a Big Ten showdown with Iowa, who Nebraska split with during the regular season. The 'Huskers are a slight favorite for that one, but destined to be an underdog the rest of the way—unless March gets really Mad and they draw Texas in the national championship. They could win on Thursday, but probably lose to Houston or Illinois on Saturday.
Reason to Buy
Nebraska's ability to make it rain three-pointers gets all the attention, but this kind of quietly has also been one of the best defensive teams in the entire country. There were a couple of defensive duds early on against Oklahoma and Kansas State. Since Thanksgiving, though, the Cornhuskers have allowed 64.4 points per game, holding 27 consecutive foes to 80 points or fewer. In this year's loaded Big Ten, that's a bit absurd.
Reason to Sell
Nebraska scored 52 points at Iowa, 52 points at UCLA and 58 points in the Big Ten tournament loss to Purdue, all three of those duds coming within the past five weeks. The 'Huskers shot it well in those first two wins over Troy and Vanderbilt, but can they avoid another one of those "can't buy a bucket" nights? It's also noteworthy that while this defense has been super efficient, Nebraska allows three-point attempts at a sky-high rate, and there are a lot of teams left in this tournament who would be happy to take advantage of that.
Will Cut Down the Nets If...
It stays healthy and avoids the disaster game. The only times Nebraska has been soundly beaten this season were when its offense just completely no-showed. The Cornhuskers almost won at Michigan, even without Braden Frager and Rienk Mast, and they did beat both Illinois and Michigan State. Nebraska felt like a viable title contender two months ago, and it might be re-harnessing that mojo.
Title Odds: +5000
St. John's Red Storm (No. 5 Seed, East Regional)
7 of 16
The Road Ahead
A little over a decade ago, St. John's was the sacrificial lamb against whom Mike Krzyzewski picked up the 1000th win of his career. Could the Johnnies serve a cold dish of revenge by upsetting the Blue Devils in the Sweet 16? If Zuby Ejiofor goes blow-for-blow with Cameron Boozer, maybe. And maybe that would set up a fourth clash with UConn in the Elite Eight.
Reason to Buy
With one hideous exception in a 72-40 loss at Connecticut, St. John's has been one of the most consistent teams in the country over the past three months, winning 21 out of 22 games on the strength of impeccable defense and turnover-averse offense. Anyone who threw in the towel on this team during its 9-5 start to the season clearly forgot how brilliant Rick Pitino's coaching mind is.
Reason to Sell
St. John's shot 36.2 percent from the field in its buzzer-beating second-round win over Kansas. It was the seventh time this season that it shot below 36.5 percent—something that Duke, Michigan, Arizona and Purdue haven't done once all year. Can the Johnnies avoid bricking their way out of the dance? Or is this ride destined to end just like it did last year, in a 21-for-75 disaster in which even 28 offensive rebounds couldn't save them from shooting 28 percent from the field?
Will Cut Down the Nets If...
Enough shots find their mark. Dating back to Thanksgiving, the only three losses St. John's has suffered have come in their three worst shooting performances of the season, going 26-0 during that stretch while shooting at least 34 percent. However, Duke has the best defense in the country. And should the Johnnies get past the Blue Devils, a fourth showdown with UConn's stout defense could be looming.
Title Odds: +4500
Iowa State Cyclones (No. 2 Seed, Midwest Regional)
8 of 16
The Road Ahead
If the Cyclones were at full strength, it'd be hard not to like the upcoming matchup with Tennessee. As is, that game might be a coin flip, followed by a projected showdown with Michigan that certainly wouldn't be a coin flip. But, hey, it'd be fun to finally settle who actually won the Players Era Festival, after the Cyclones went 3-0 and didn't even get to play in the third-place game because of that point differential nonsense.
Reason to Buy
Iowa State has had some insatiable offenses and impenetrable defenses over the past three decades, but this is the most complete version of the Cyclones that we've ever seen. Well, maybe not in terms of health at the moment, but this is a top-five defense and a top-20 offense that showed in the opening weekend of the tournament how quickly it can take a game over via turnovers and/or rebounds.
Reason to Sell
Though the likes of Killyan Toure and Nate Heise stepped up in a big way this past weekend, the health of Joshua Jefferson's ankle, which the second-team All-American injured early in the opener against Tennessee State, is a colossal X-factor. Full-strength Iowa State can beat anyone in the country, as evidenced by the blowout win at Purdue, the home win over Houston and losing at the buzzer to Arizona. But the Cyclones need their do-it-all star.
Will Cut Down the Nets If...
Jefferson is good to go and those pressure-free throws never come along. On the latter front, Iowa State is easily the worst free-throw shooting team left in the dance. Aside from that, though, the Cyclones can beat you in any number of ways when they are locked in and winning both the turnover and rebounding battles. Let's not forget that for a while there in the middle of the season, Iowa State was second only to Michigan in the KenPom rankings.
Title Odds: +3500
Michigan State Spartans (No. 3 Seed, East Regional)
9 of 16
The Road Ahead
Michigan State is an underdog by a couple of points in the Sweet 16 showdown with Connecticut, but that feels like a pick'em. At any rate, KenPom has the Spartans rated slightly higher than the Huskies, so this is a rare case where the KenPom favorite and the betting favorite are at odds. But if the Spartans win that one, they're probably running into Duke for a rematch of a December game that the Blue Devils won in East Lansing.
Reason to Buy
Though the highlight-reel stars are 6'6" dunking machine Coen Carr and 6'2" assists king Jeremy Fears Jr., Michigan State is just a wrecking ball in the paint and on the glass, averaging more than four blocks, five more two-point buckets per game than it allows and a year-to-date rebound margin of nearly +400. As a result, the Spartans are 19-1 when their opponent shoots 35.0 percent or worse from three-point range, the lone loss coming in an early game against Duke in which Fears shot 0-for-10 from the field.
Reason to Sell
Turnover margin is a considerable problem here, sitting at minus-54 for the year. And when that bugaboo combines with an opponent shooting reasonably well from three-point range, well, that's when Michigan State loses at Minnesota, or gets all that it can handle from Rutgers, even in East Lansing.
Will Cut Down the Nets If...
The defense keeps showing up. Michigan State couldn't stop anything late in the regular season, allowing at least 87 points in three consecutive games. But Sparty held North Dakota State and Louisville to 67 and 69, respectively, bringing their record to 25-2 when allowing 75 points or fewer in regulation.
Title Odds: +3000
Connecticut Huskies (No. 2 Seed, East Regional)
10 of 16
The Road Ahead
As just mentioned, UConn is favored by a couple of points against Michigan State on Friday. That one could go either way, though. The same goes for the subsequent round against Duke or St. John's, depending on whether Tarris Reed Jr. keeps playing like a man possessed and shuts down Cameron Boozer or Zuby Ejiofor.
Reason to Buy
Connecticut has locked back in on defense. Creighton put up 91 against the Huskies, while Providence averaged 89.5 points in its two games against UConn. Throw in that first game against St. John's in which the Red Storm won 81-72 and there's a good reason this team felt kind of broken in the middle of the season. But they have been much better on that end as of late, holding nine straight opponents to 72 points or fewer.
Reason to Sell
While Solo Ball has been mired in quite a funk and Silas Demary Jr. is trying to play through an ankle injury, Braylon Mullins is 7-for-44 (16 percent) from three-point range thus far in March. Alex Karaban and Tarris Reed Jr. have been phenomenal, but the guard play simply has to be better now that we're knees deep in the dance. If the Huskies keep struggling with turnovers and generally not getting much out of their starting backcourt, they'll be in big trouble.
Will Cut Down the Nets If...
The full starting five consistently shows up the rest of the way. In its current state, UConn's defense is second to none. If that continues while the five starters who each average at least 10 points per game do their thing, Dan Hurley (and Karaban) will have a third ring to commemorate the most dominant four-year run this sport has seen since the John Wooden era UCLA Bruins.
Title Odds: +2500
Illinois Fighting Illini (No. 3 Seed, South Regional)
11 of 16
The Road Ahead
Illinois ended up not needing to face North Carolina in Greenville, but this Sweet 16 game against Houston in Houston was a brutal draw. The good news is that if they can win what is essentially a road game, the Illini would be favored in the Elite Eight against either Nebraska or Iowa. There is, however, still the problem of needing to go through whoever comes out of the East Region before a championship game against probably Arizona or Michigan.
Reason to Buy
Save for maybe Purdue, nobody scores as efficiently as Illinois. And with 105 points in a 68-possession game against Penn, the Illini opened their tournament run with one of their most ridiculous performances yet. Basically, the entire eight-man rotation averages at least one offensive rebound per game, 2.5 three-point attempts per game, and a conversion rate of at least 74 percent from the charity stripe. Any of the eight can take over in any game.
Reason to Sell
Defense has been a too-frequent struggle for the Illini. Four of their eight losses went to overtime, so point totals are a bit inflated. However, they've allowed 86.8 points and forced just 7.1 turnovers in those losses. It has felt almost inevitable for a while now that Illinois is going to lose something like 94-92 in the most breathtaking game of the dance.
Will Cut Down the Nets If...
Offense wins championships. We know for a fact that this offense will travel anywhere. Illinois has scored at least 75 points in 11 consecutive games away from home, including 78 in a win at Nebraska and 88 in a win at Purdue. They spread the floor as well as anyone, so when this team gets into a rhythm from three-point range, there's not much of anything you can do to slow them down.
Title Odds: +1800
Purdue Boilermakers (No. 2 Seed, West Regional)
12 of 16
The Road Ahead
There are no easy opponents at this stage of the tournament, but Purdue does draw the easiest of them in the form of Texas. Should the Boilermakers wipe out the lone remaining double-digit seed, they should be running into Arizona in the Elite Eight, which wouldn't bode well. But they did beat Michigan on a neutral court barely a week ago, so maybe they upset the Wildcats to set up another showdown with the Wolverines, this time in Indianapolis.
Reason to Buy
Purdue leads the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency. And after shooting 13-for-43 (30.2 percent) from three-point range in January, Fletcher Loyer has been a blistering hot 40-for-75 (53.3 percent) over his last 11 games. When he's on a heater on top of everything else that this offense does at a high level, it feels like nothing can possibly be done to slow down this freight train.
Reason to Sell
Purdue's offense has averaged 82.2 points per game, but its defense has allowed 82.0 points in the eight losses. That defense has been dialed in as of late, though, allowing just 67.3 points during the six-game winning streak. And that includes shutting down all of Nebraska, Michigan and what had been a red-hot UCLA. Will that continue? Or is another colossal dud on that end of the floor just around the corner?
Will Cut Down the Nets If...
Cohesion and veteran leadership reign supreme. Purdue was the preseason favorite to win it all in large part because of the big three of Braden Smith, Loyer and TKR, together again for a fourth consecutive season. And that big three has been awesome during this six-game winning streak. At a time when everyone is trying to tell us that NIL and the transfer portal are ruining college basketball, what a breath of fresh air it would be if that trio wins a title.
Title Odds: +1500
Houston Cougars (No. 2 Seed, South Regional)
13 of 16
The Road Ahead
It's a mighty short upcoming road for Houston, which could walk from campus to its Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games just down the street. On top of that gift, the Cougars are the No. 2 seed in the lone region that has lost its No. 1 seed. They really should get through Illinois and either Nebraska or Iowa to reach the Final Four. But will the season-long juggernauts of Duke, Michigan and Arizona be waiting there for them?
Reason to Buy
Houston has held its last 17 opponents to 62.9 points per game. The Cougars don't quite rank No. 1 in defensive efficiency this year, but there are times when even darn good offenses have just no prayer of getting anything going. They do occasionally allow more than their fair share of free throws, and their defensive rebounding could certainly be better. But if you're looking for a team that can demoralize and frustrate the heck out of any foe, you've found it.
Reason to Sell
Outside of Kingston Flemings and Emanuel Sharp, Houston doesn't have particularly reliable options on offense. And even both halves of that duo go cold on occasion, when the mid/long range jumpers aren't finding their mark. During that three-game losing skid in mid-February, when a lot of people kind of gave up on Houston getting back to the title game for a second straight year, the Cougars only averaged 63.0 points.
Will Cut Down the Nets If...
Milos Uzan rises to the occasion. So far so good on this front, as one of the pivotal pieces of Houston's deep run last year has tallied 27 points, seven assists and seven rebounds through the first two games. It wasn't efficient scoring, needing 30 field-goal attempts to get those 27 points, but the Cougars' ceiling feels much higher when Uzan is making some impact, and it isn't all up to Flemings, Sharp, and the offensive glass.
Title Odds: +800
Duke Blue Devils (No. 1 Seed, East Regional)
14 of 16
The Road Ahead
While Duke is certainly the favorite to come out of the East Region, it's going to be the furthest thing from a cakewalk, drawing St. John's on Friday to face either Connecticut or Michigan State on Sunday. All three of those games promise to be fascinating theatre to determine who makes it to the Final Four. The good news for the Blue Devils is they wouldn't have to face a fellow No. 1 seed in the national semifinal. While it might be Arizona vs. Michigan on one side of the bracket, Duke may get a chance to avenge last year's Final Four loss to Houston.
Reason to Buy
Duke's defense is quite literally second to none, leading the nation in adjusted efficiency. It has barely been a month since they were able to grind then full-strength Michigan to a halt in a 68-63 neutral-site victory—and, in the process, unofficially taking the torch from the Wolverines as the favorite to win it all. They also have this Cameron Boozer guy, who seems to roll out of bed every game day with 20 points, 10 rebounds and a few assists.
Reason to Sell
Duke may be 34-2 with a pair of last-second losses, but it didn't inspire much confidence in those first two games in Greenville. Nor did it look great in the ACC tournament, barely surviving the opener against Florida State and having 12 shots blocked in the title game against Virginia. Playing without two starters will do that to a team. But while one (Patrick Ngongba) returned on Saturday, the other (Caleb Foster) might not be back at all.
Will Cut Down the Nets If...
They get/stay reasonably healthy. With how well Cayden Boozer has been playing since Foster went down, Duke might be alright at point guard even if he doesn't return, just so long as Ngongba is able to get back to playing like his old self. Boozer overshadowed him all season long, but Ngongba has been so pivotal to how this team operates and dominates in the paint.
Title Odds: +450
Michigan Wolverines (No. 1 Seed, Midwest Regional)
15 of 16
The Road Ahead
Of the remaining No. 1 seeds, Michigan arguably has the most favorable path to the Final Four, getting a defense-optional Alabama team without second-leading scorer Aden Holloway to likely run into an Iowa State team that might be without its second-team All-American Joshua Jefferson. But no matter the draw, Michigan was always going to be expected to reach the Final Four, where it may need to go through Arizona and Duke to win it all.
Reason to Buy
The Michigan that everyone fell in love with back in November and December? It might be back. After scoring 72 points or fewer in four of their final five games heading into the NCAA tournament, the Wolverines have been insatiable, averaging 98.0 points in a pair of wins by margins of more than 20. And when this freight train is firing on all cylinders, steer clear of those tracks.
Reason to Sell
It's hardly coincidental that the offense was less proficient late in the season, as the Wolverines had to adjust to losing reserve point guard LJ Cason to a torn ACL on March 1. Have they actually completed that adjustment with these two dominant showings in opening weekend, or will it be back to playing in the 70s once the level of competition re-intensifies?
Will Cut Down the Nets If...
They're able to keep doing their thing. Michigan was the singular team to beat for a large chunk of the regular season, and never fell out of the top three in that regard, winning at Michigan State, Illinois and Purdue each by double digits. When "Good Michigan" shows up, starts scoring in transition, and just generally being large and in charge, it's going to be very difficult for anyone to keep pace.
Title Odds: +400
Arizona Wildcats (No. 1 Seed, West Regional)
16 of 16
The Road Ahead
The four teams left in the field with the worst defensive ratings on KenPom are Texas, Alabama, Arkansas and Purdue. Swap Arizona in for Alabama and that's what is left in the West Region, so the Wildcats are poised to capitalize on some less-than-stellar defenses en route to a Final Four. And should they proceed to go through Michigan and Duke to win it all, it'll go down as such a memorable run.
Reason to Buy
Even before both Duke and Michigan lost key players to injury (as well as before Florida got eliminated by Iowa), it felt like Arizona had the highest floor of any team in the field, and by a somewhat wide margin. The Wildcats are great on defense and on the glass; they've made almost 100 more free throws than their opponents have attempted. They also generally have a reliable eight-man rotation. It's not always flashy, but it pretty much always works. And that's the car you want to be driving to the Final Four.
Reason to Sell
If we're picking nits, Arizona's aversion to steals is a bit concerning. The Wildcats didn't force a single live-ball turnover in the second-round win over Utah State. They only had two against Houston in the Big 12 championship, as well as two in a relatively close call at Baylor a month ago. Throw in the home loss to Texas Tech on Valentine's Day and we're talking four out of the past 13 games in which Arizona's opponent committed eight or fewer turnovers. Should an opponent catch fire, can they get that momentum-halting stop?
Will Cut Down the Nets If...
They stick to the plan. Anything could happen if Arizona gets rattled and starts coughing up turnovers and jacking up threes at well above usual rates. But this is a top-five offense, top-five defense and top-five rebounding team with seven different guys who can be the hero on any given night. They somehow weren't the betting favorite heading into the tournament, but the Wildcats have ascended to that throne, with good reason.
Title Odds: +390
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