2026 Men's NCAA Bracket Predictions, Best Picks for Every Matchup

There is no singular right way to pick your bracket for the 2026 men's NCAA basketball tournament.

So just do what I always do and go with your gut.

Now, my gut has spent months feasting on hours upon hours of game-watching and data-compiling, particularly over the past week while putting together this behemoth of a 68-team power rankings.

As such, my gut is theoretically better conditioned for those picks than yours.

So, if you find yourself struggling with what to do in a certain matchup or you just want to straight-up copy someone's picks for a bracket pool, have at it.

For what it's worth, I made these picks in a matter of about five minutes. However, after several hours of writing about why I made those gut decisions, well, they pretty well align with the conclusions I might have come to had I spent half an hour agonizing over every selection.

First Four

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Lehigh's Nasir Whitlock

The Picks: UMBC over Howard, Texas over NC State, Miami (OH) over SMU, Lehigh over Prairie View

Budding Buzzer-Beater: Texas vs. NC State

It is positively ridiculous that we are getting a regular-season rematch in the First Four, but at least it was entertaining the first time? The Wolfpack and Longhorns played a defense-optional game in the Maui Invitational with 199 combined points. Don't expect the same in Dayton, but it should be the most high-quality of these four games, maybe decided at the last second.

Upset Special: Miami (OH) over SMU

These games are almost always close to pick'ems, but this one would be a legitimate upset as far as KenPom is concerned, where SMU is a projected 86-79 winner. But let's not forget that Dayton is basically a home game for Miami (OH), and that SMU is hoping for the best with BJ Edwards, who missed the last five games and surely won't be operating at 100 percent by Wednesday. And if the RedHawks had to finally face a major conference foe, you really couldn't ask for a better one for them. SMU's defense is nothing special and allows a ton of threes.

Player to Watch: Nasir Whitlock, Lehigh

Lehigh hasn't been in the NCAA tournament since 2012, when some ball-dominant lead guard by the name of C.J. McCollum stunned No. 2 seed Duke after averaging around 21 points and 3.5 assists per game during the regular season. And, well, that's what Whitlock is doing for this team this year. He ought to put on a show against Prairie View before maybe putting a wee bit of fear into Florida on Friday.

East Region

First Round Show Stopper: South Florida over Louisville

Both of these teams love to run and shoot threes, while neither of these defenses is all that great along the perimeter. Could be one of those games where there's a flurry of like eight triples made in the span of two minutes on the way to a final score of something like 98-95.

And give me the Bulls pulling off the upset.

Even at full strength, Louisville never felt like a team liable to go on any sort of deep run in the dance. And they've been without their freshman star, Mikel Brown Jr., thus far in March due to a flareup of the back issue that kept him out of action for more than a month earlier this season. He might play, but he might not be himself. And that'll be huge for the Bulls.

Upset Special: UCLA over UConn

I haven't seen any other "expert picks" yet, but I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that a lot of people are riding with the Bruins here.

They did sustain injuries to key players in the Big Ten tournament, But if Donovan Dent and Tyler Bilodeau are good to go, this team has been sizzling as of late, beating Illinois, Nebraska and Michigan State within the past month.

Meanwhile, Connecticut ended its regular season with an embarrassing loss to Marquette and ended its conference tournament with an embarrassing showing against St. John's. The Huskies felt like a top contender back in the first 5-6 weeks of the year, but they haven't much looked the part as of late.

Player to Watch: Darryn Peterson, Kansas

Yes, this is also the region with National Player of the Year Cameron Boozer, but we all know pretty well what to expect from Boozer and he might be a Player to Watch in the Final Four instead.

Peterson is the X-Factor of the region who could put on a show against St. John's and Duke to guide Kansas to the Elite Eight, even though Kansas has been more likely to lose with Peterson in the starting lineup than when he's a DNP.

If There's a Cinderella: Cal Baptist

It sure would be something if Dominique Daniels Jr. outplayed Darryn Peterson in a stunning upset of Kansas. And goodness knows he's going to try. Daniels has averaged 19.3 field-goal attempts and 27.1 points over his last 13 games, including a pair of games north of 40.

Granted, Kansas' defense is a much different story from those of Utah Valley or Utah Tech. But Daniels' green light won't be any dimmer.

Midwest Region

First Round Show Stopper: Saint Louis over Georgia

Saint Louis literally limped to the finish line as Robbie Avila played through plantar fasciitis, but this promises to be a fascinating game between two of the 10 fastest-paced offenses in the country.

Will the Billikens' year-to-date effective field-goal percentages play to form, or are they going to run into another tough time on the defensive end of the floor?

First to 90 wins.

Upset Special: Akron over Texas Tech

Perfect storm for an upset special here.

Texas Tech has been leaking oil, losing each of its last three games and repeatedly getting smoked on the glass. The Red Raiders are trying to find their way without JT Toppin, but it's a real struggle. They were going to be a popular "to be upset" pick pretty much no matter their draw.

But they pulled Akron, which is a team playing with a chip on its shoulder after months of having to hear nonstop about Miami (OH)'s magical season.

The Zips do allow a ton of three-pointers, so TTU's Donovan Atwell might win this game by himself. But I like Akron to win a tournament game for the first time in program history.

Player to Watch: Nate Ament, Tennessee

Ament missed Tennessee's last two games of the regular season with a lower leg injury, but he was back for the SEC tournament, going for 27 points, eight rebounds, four assists and three blocks in the game that ultimately ended Auburn's season.

He started pretty slow this season, really plummeting in the ol' mock drafts through the first two months. But he flipped a switch in mid-January, blossoming into the co-star to Ja'Kobi Gillespie that this team had been sorely lacking.

That dynamic duo could be what carries the No. 6 seed Volunteers through what is arguably the weakest half-region in the entire bracket.

If There's a Cinderella: Hofstra

The problem with falling in love with a Cinderella candidate before the bracket is announced is sometimes you end up hating the draw. And after months of thinking about picking Cruz Davis and the Pride to pull off at least one upset, they got matched up with Alabama, which is a tough, tough ask for a Hofstra team that prefers to play at a slower pace and doesn't shoot all that well.

But maybe. The Pride did win at Pitt and Syracuse, almost won at UCF and do have a few quality perimeter shooters. Maybe, with a bit of luck, they'll be able to grind Alabama to a halt.

South Region

First Round Show Stopper: Vanderbilt over McNeese

Will Wade may be gone, but this McNeese team is still a terrifying No. 12 seed for a third consecutive season.

What's unfortunate for the Cowboys is that while they are all about impact defense in the form of both steals and blocks, Vanderbilt's offense has been one of the best in the nation at avoiding those mishaps.

If that continues to be the case and the Commodores take advantage of a defense that allows a ton of three-pointers, any dream of a 12-over-5 upset could be over in a hurry.

But Vanderbilt also has a knack for digging itself into an early hole, so it's pretty easy to envision this 3:15 p.m. ET tipoff on Thursday causing work productivity to plummet around the nation.

Upset Special: Troy over Nebraska

Troy has already shown itself to be a dangerous team, winning at San Diego State and almost winning at USC (back when USC was good) in mid-November. Troy also scored a 10-point win over Akron in that MAC-Sun Belt Challenge in early February. And after five consecutive seasons of at least 20 wins, Trojans head coach Scott Cross was already likely to be one of the buzzy names in this year's ride around the coaching carousel.

But let's face it: Nebraska hasn't been the same since its 20-0 start.

The Cornhuskers haven't lost to anything close to a Troy-caliber foe yet, but this once-elite offense has been held to 52 twice and to 58 once in its last seven games. And unless an overtime win at home against Iowa does anything for you, Nebraska hasn't picked up a truly impressive win since early January.

Nebraska has also never won a tournament game in eight tries.

Player to Watch: Kingston Flemings, Houston

Houston's superstar freshman will probably dictate this team's tournament ceiling.

The Cougars defense is going to show up no matter what. It always does. And when Flemings tallies at least 10 points and five assists, the Cougars have been practically unbeatable at 17-1 with a road loss to full-strength Texas Tech—which beat a lot of great teams this season.

But will he get there? Or will he run into one of those nights where those mid-range jumpers keep missing the mark and dishes to JoJo Tugler and Chris Cenac keep amounting to no points?

Either way, he's so fun to watch. And there's about a 99.99 percent chance he won't be back next year.

If There's a Cinderella: Penn

Struggling against Illinois wasn't the only reason Fran McCaffery was asked to abdicate his throne as the head coach of Iowa last season, but it sure didn't help. Brad Underwood won nine of the final 10 matchups in that coaching series, the last four in relatively blowout fashion.

Maybe McCaffery is ready for the most unforgettable win of them all, though?

It's extremely unlikely, and would require a Herculean effort from TJ Power. But for as much as the Illini rely on the deep ball, maybe they'll shoot themselves into a nail-biter.

West Region

First Round Show Stopper: Wisconsin over High Point

Every single year, there's a "They can't set the over/under high enough on this one" type of first-round matchup.

You're looking at it.

True to its name, High Point averages 90 points per game. But there are nights where it feels like Wisconsin's Nick Boyd and John Blackwell might get to 90 points just between the two of them. They average close to 40 for a Badgers team that can make it rain threes like no other, averaging 14.7 makes on 38.0 attempts over their last seven games.

Upset Special: Texas over BYU

To the Cougars credit, they did find a little bit of mojo down the stretch.

In the consecutive ugly losses to UCF, West Virginia and Cincinnati, it looked like they were just going to roll over and die after losing Richie Saunders to a torn ACL. But they ended the regular season with a win over (also shorthanded) Texas Tech before pummeling Kansas State and West Virginia in the Big 12 tournament and putting up a good fight in their loss to Houston.

My official stance is it would be all sorts of fun if AJ Dybantsa puts up something like 80 points in the first two games while carrying BYU to a Sweet 16.

However, this defense was so bad so often while losing 10 of their final 17 games that I just cannot trust them against a Texas team with four guys who average better than 13 points per game. (Or, if it's NC State, the Wolfpack also have four players at 13+ PPG.)

Player to Watch: Darius Acuff Jr., Arkansas

March Madness is all about that lead guard who can take over games on a repeatable basis, and you're not going to find many (any?) who fit that bill better than Acuff.

After missing the final game of the regular season, he came back in the SEC tournament and averaged 39.0 minutes, 30.3 points and 7.7 assists. And from a guy who went for 49 in a game last month and who has scored at least 17 points in every game played dating back to Thanksgiving, it didn't even feel out of the ordinary.

He's a superstar in the making, and Arizona is going to have its hands full with this one in the Sweet 16.

If There's a Cinderella: Queens (hear me out...)

If you're not going to make a YOLO pick in the first round, why even fill out a bracket?

And if any top team is going to spare us from this growing narrative that NIL is killing the NCAA tournament and we'll never see a Cinderella story again, isn't it totally going to be Purdue—the team that has lost to a No. 13, No. 15 and No. 16 seed just since the pandemic?

Penciling in the Boilermakers for an immediate loss felt like a better idea a week ago, back when they were reeling to the tune of losses in seven of their final 13 regular-season games. Fresh off winning the Big Ten tournament, though, it's much less of a slam dunk decision.

Then again, the only other time Purdue has won the Big Ten tournament in the past 15 years was the Fairleigh Dickinson year. And with Braden Smith one assist away from breaking Bobby Hurley's all-time record, there may be a temptation to treat this game like more of a celebration than an actual test.

And while they didn't actually come close in any of them, Queens did play Virginia, Arkansas, Villanova, Auburn and Wake Forest during the nonconference portion of the season and won't be your standard No. 15 seed who hasn't even faced a top 100 foe before.

Final Four Picks

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Michigan's Yaxel Lendeborg

East Region: No. 1 Duke over No. 3 Michigan State

Seven years after Michigan State upset Zion Williamson in the Elite Eight, how fitting it would be for Tom Izzo to deliver the final blow to another legendary Duke freshman's season.

But it's not going to happen.

This Spartans defense went completely off the rails down the stretch, allowing 90 to Michigan, 88 to UCLA and 87 to Rutgers—14-19 RUTGERS—over its final three games. UCLA, in particular, was able to find open corner threes pretty much whenever it darn well pleased. And if they let this Duke team do that, they're going to lose 99 times out of 100.

Midwest Region: No. 1 Michigan over No. 6 Tennessee

Tennessee might be the best team in its half-region, but it definitely is not the best team in the Midwest. And that two-headed Volunteers attack on offense would really be put to the test by Michigan's loaded frontcourt.

One big problem here is that Tennessee isn't the turnover-forcing machine that it was in the 2021-23 range, and that's where Michigan's Achilles' heel lies.

The other major problem? The Vols are 173rd in effective field-goal percentage on offense, while Michigan is No. 1 on defense. They simply might not be able to score.

South Region: No. 2 Houston over No. 1 Florida

The fact that this game is being played in Houston is definitely a factor that will be discussed ad nauseum if the Cougars get there, but that's not the reason for picking what barely even qualifies as an upset.

Florida's mercurial backcourt trying to deal with Houston's defense is going to be a problem, as it was in last year's national championship until the Gators finally got it rolling in the final 10 minutes. And at least that team had Walter Clayton Jr. This one has Boogie Fland and Xaivian Lee.

Moreover, the big rebounding edge that Florida has in most games will be put to the test in this one. At any rate, Houston basically broke even on the glass with Arizona in those two games. Could be the difference.

West Region: No. 1 Arizona over No. 3 Gonzaga

Are we finally going to get an apprentice/master showdown between Tommy Lloyd and Mark Few? Arizona and Gonzaga used to play on a semi-regular basis, but they haven't squared off since December 2019.

With all due respect to the likes of Purdue, Arkansas and Wisconsin, it feels like this region was built for this game.

Unfortunately for the master, the apprentice has the better team, and it's not all that close.

However, there is some hope out of Spokane that Braden Huff will be able to return for the second weekend of the tournament. He hasn't played since early January, but he and Graham Ike were one heck of a one-two punch during the first two months of the season. Still, got to roll with the Wildcats here.

Final Weekend Picks

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No. 1 Duke over No. 2 Houston

Houston gets through the team it lost to in last year's national championship, only to lose to the team it beat in last year's Final Four.

It would be a low-scoring grind again. Both of these teams would be perfectly content with a repeat of last year's 70-67 final score.

But it's Duke who has the better defense this year, and Duke who has the drastically better shooting percentages.

The X-factor is Caleb Foster's health. If he's not back in time for this game, Kingston Flemings and Emanuel Sharp might be able to win the backcourt battle emphatically enough to make up for however much Cameron Boozer outplays Houston's frontcourt.

Prediction: Duke 73, Houston 66

No. 1 Arizona over No. 1 Michigan

Though Duke eventually ascended to the No. 1 overall seed, this was the dream national championship pairing for a huge chunk of the season, especially back in December when both teams were just trouncing everything in their path.

Both of these frontcourts are phenomenal, and you never know when Michigan is going to have one of those "runaway freight train" types of games.

But forced to choose between Jaden Bradley/Brayden Burries and Elliot Cadeau/Nimari Burnett, it's no contest.

Even though Arizona doesn't much rely on the deep ball, its backcourt is going to steal the show while the big men more or less play to a draw.

Prediction: Arizona 81, Michigan 77

National Championship: No. 1 Arizona over No. 1 Duke

The last time I picked Arizona to reach the national championship game, they immediately lost to Princeton in 2023.

So, you know, here's hoping they at least survive their opener this time around?

This team is just so solid that it's almost impossible to see it happening again.

The depth hasn't quite been the same since Dwayne Aristode missed a couple of weeks with an illness and has yet to make the same type of impact. But it's a strong 7.5-man rotation that might get a little more out of that eighth man as his stamina/conditioning improves.

All three freshmen in the starting lineup are studs who can take over a game. Bradley is that veteran lead guard who always seems to come through in the clutch. Motiejus Krivas is an elite force in the paint. But it's the rebounding machine (Tobe Awaka) and the X-factor who will periodically just make every shot he takes (Anthony Dell'Orso) coming off the bench that makes Arizona the pick for me.

Boozer is incredible, but Arizona is the better team.

Prediction: Arizona 72, Duke 70