New Predictions for LeBron James, James Harden, More In 2026 NBA Free Agency

From title threats fighting for wins to lottery-bound tankers whose seasons effectively ended weeks ago, free agency is always on every team's mind.

That might seem odd, especially when it comes to teams pouring everything into this season's success. You'd expect the short-term aim of climbing the standings and, eventually, making a deep playoff run would eat up all of an organization's attention. Maybe it should, but we know front offices are always splitting their focus between the present and the future.

With the end of the regular season approaching, it's time to take a look at the top free agents set to hit the market. We'll predict where LeBron James, James Harden, and others will land and even try to lay out salary parameters.

July will be here before you know it, so we need to set some expectations now.

LeBron James: One Last Ride in Cleveland

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If the Los Angeles Lakers viewed LeBron James as a core support piece for Luka Dončić, they would have extended him this past offseason. The absence of a deal makes it hard to believe James will be back in L.A. next year. If he opts to continue his career, James will have his choice of contenders to join—assuming he's willing to accept a minimum salary or, at most, the mid-level exception.

The Golden State Warriors and New York Knicks lead the list of big-market usual suspects, but James' likeliest landing spot is a familiar one.

Per ESPN's Dave McMenamin, "...multiple team and league sources told ESPN the Cavaliers would gladly welcome [LeBron] James back this summer if he wanted to return."

A third stint in Cleveland could give James a shot to contend for a championship during a proper farewell tour. Though the Cavs have Donovan Mitchell's extension and James Harden's always fraught contract demands to consider, adding James to the mix should be a priority. If the whole core is back, LeBron would fit cleanly into a starting spot between the Mitchell-Harden backcourt and the Evan Mobley-Jarrett Allen duo up front.

Austin Reaves: Big Bucks from the Lakers

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Austin Reaves is the Los Angeles Lakers' most important free agent, which means something considering LeBron James is also on the current roster.

The 27-year-old guard is all but guaranteed to decline his $14.9 million player option, enabling him to hit unrestricted free agency and command massive offers—certainly from the Lakers, but also potentially from other teams.

Reaves can ink a new deal with the Lakers for up to five years and $241 million. Other teams will be capped at four years and $179 million. It's only gotten harder to predict what teams will do with cap space, and there aren't many beyond the Brooklyn Nets, Chicago Bulls, and Lakers who currently have Reaves-level spending power.

It'll still be stunning if the Lakers can keep Reaves around for less than $179 million over four years. That's basically what played out with the Indiana Pacers and Pascal Siakam a couple of years ago, when Indy knew it just had to equal the best potential outside offer.

Odds are, Reaves will be back with the Lakers—even if the thought of paying max-level cash to an offense-first guard who'll always be a second option next to Dončić is a little concerning.

Reaves played like a superstar earlier this year while his top-line teammates were injured. Justifiably confident he can fill that same upsized role on a full-time basis elsewhere, Reaves should drive as hard a bargain as possible.

James Harden: Re-Ups with Cleveland

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James Harden is earning $39.4 million this season and has a $42.3 million player option for 2026-27. The Cavs can't officially negotiate with him until after the Finals, but you're fooling yourself if you don't think they've already got a deal in place. Cleveland can't possibly have dealt for Harden as a rental.

Expect a one-plus-one agreement with the second year being a player option if the Cavs get their way, and a two-plus-one if Harden's leverage wins out. $40 million per season seems about right.

You'll note we also predicted LeBron James would be in Cleveland next year, which creates some fascinating dynamics between two of the best players of the modern era. In one sense, Harden's ability to dominate the ball could ease the playmaking burden on James, who has lost several steps offensively. In another, pairing Harden and James with Donovan Mitchell would further exacerbate the starters' poor perimeter defense.

If both veteran superstars wind up with the Cavs, Evan Mobley had better get himself all the way back to last year's DPOY levels. Either that, or Cleveland will have to swap out Jarrett Allen for a versatile perimeter defender, move Mobley to center, and hope for the best.

Jalen Duren: Back to Detroit With a Raise

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The Detroit Pistons dealt Jaden Ivey at the deadline, but his departure only removed the cheapest of the Detroit Pistons' restricted free agents.

Back in October, Jake Fischer of The Stein Line reported that Jalen Duren wanted an extension paying him "well north" of $30 million per season. The Pistons weren't interested in a deal of that size for a player who, at that point, was coming off averages of 11.8 points and 10.3 rebounds.

In the wake of an All-Star season, Duren is in line for much more than he wanted six months ago.

We've moved past the era when centers were only valuable if they could defend multiple positions and stretch the floor. Bruisers are back, rebounding matters, and size is again a commodity. Duren has all those old-school qualities, plus a newly developed downhill driving game that gives him dimensions beyond "dunk" on offense.

Duren should expect an offer sheet worth $40 million per year. That could come from outside the organization, but it'd be surprising if Detroit didn't quickly match.

Whatever happens, it seems like the Pistons are going to regret not ponying up $30 million per year for their franchise center when they had the chance.

Norman Powell: Returns to Miami for Less Than You Think

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The Miami Heat acquired Norman Powell for the contracts of Kyle Anderson and Kevin Love, an outrageously low cost for a player who made his All-Star debut this season. Despite Powell's late-career surge, the Heat could be in for a second bargain ahead of the 32-year-old's unrestricted free agency.

Miami can either extend Powell before June 30 or sign him to a new deal once the league year flips. Though the return to health of Tyler Herro (also extension eligible) might make Powell seem expendable, there are plenty of scenarios where the Heat retain the veteran guard. Not the least of which is Herro's inclusion in a blockbuster trade, something we can never rule out when it comes to Miami.

The Heat also has to consider Andrew Wiggins, who can enter free agency by declining his $30 million team option for next season. Terry Rozier and Simone Fontecchio come off the books after this year, though, which creates a bit more flexibility if Miami chooses to retain both Powell and Wiggins on new deals.

The main factor driving down Powell's potential payday: a dearth of cap space across the league. Though he's earning $20.4 million this season, Powell might struggle to beat that number going forward. His age is a factor, but so is the likelihood that other teams' offers will top out at the $15.1 million mid-level exception. The Heat could present the best package without cresting the $20 million mark in annual value.

Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Salary info via Spotrac.

Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Bluesky and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.