Biggest Risers and Fallers from Our New 2026 NBA Mock Draft
This week's projected 2026 NBA draft board received updates after the completion of each conference's regular season.
Multiple Connecticut prospects have moved around, and one of college hoops' biggest surprise breakout sophomores has been bumped up to the first round.
And the impact and skill set of Michigan's defensive anchor has become too enticing for a late-first pick.
Rising: Aday Mara (Michigan)
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Position: C | Size: 7'3", 255 lbs | Age: 20 | Country: Spain
Latest Mock Draft Position: No. 20
No. 2 in the NCAA in defensive box plus-minus, Aday Mara has played a bigger offensive role for Michigan lately. He's such a unique weapon with 7'3" size for finishing, rim protection, putting back misses and passing over the top.
He's on track to become the only NCAA player on record with a 12.0 block percentage, a 15.0 assist percentage and 50 dunks in a season.
Mara's free-throw shooting and turnovers could be frustrating, but there's going to be top-20 teams too tempted by the idea of having a center this big and skilled who can shut down the paint or step outside to operate as a facilitator.
Rising: Juke Harris (Wake Forest)
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Position: SF | Size: 6'7", 200 lbs | Age: 20
Latest Mock Draft Position: No. 30
Juke Harris added another 31-point game to the resume in a comeback win over California. Not many wings in this draft could score like that and also grab 15 boards. He's been one of the most consistent producers in the country, averaging 2.5 threes while shooting 51.7 percent on two-point jumpers and getting to the free-throw line 7.2 times a game.
Though his usage is high, he's generating the majority of his half-court offense from off the ball, playing out of spot-ups and frequently using movement and dribble handoffs.
Off the radar to start the season, Harris has started to generate first-round buzz with his three-level shotmaking and physical driving ability.
Falling: Chris Cenac (Houston)
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Position: PF | Size: 6'11", 240 lbs | Age: 18
Latest Mock Draft Position: No. 24
Chris Cenac's offensive impact has been largely tied to his shooting. A recent cold stretch doesn't say too much about his shotmaking skill, but it has resulted in inefficient scoring games that reminds scouts about a lack of versatility.
He's not a ball-handler or comfortable post player. He's totaled 26 assists through 29 games. He hasn't been a dominant finisher below the rim, converting just 55.2 percent of his layups. And his three-ball, a shot that's expected to separate him from other bigs, is at just 32.1 percent on 2.5 attempts per game.
There will be demand for a 6'11", high-motor rebounder who can stretch the floor with his range. But Cenac just doesn't do enough things above average for teams to fall in love, particularly in a draft this talented and deep.
Falling: Joshua Jefferson (Iowa State)
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Position: PF | Size: 6'9", 240 lbs | Age: 22
Latest Mock Draft Position: No. 38
Improved shooting and playmaking flashes helped Joshua Jefferson draw in NBA scouts early. But instantly slotting him into the first round may have been premature.
A 2-of-17 performance against Arizona highlighted Jefferson's difficulty separating against NBA-caliber defense and length. Despite the 5.0 assists per game, he's shooting just 25.0 percent in ball-screen situations, making it difficult to picture him being used as a creator at the next level. He's often forced to turn his back or spin as he struggled to blow-by with line-drive burst off his own dribble.
His 35.1 three-point percentage has been encouraging, but it's still on just 3.1 attempts in 31.7 minutes, and he's missed 20 of his 22 pull-up jump shot attempts on the year.
Versatility and production will get Jefferson drafted, but for a 22-year-old, the improvements just don't seem like enough to justify taking him top 30.
Rising: Tarris Reed (Connecticut)
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Position: C | Size: 6'11", 265 lbs | Age: 22
Latest Mock Draft Position: No. 39
A recent 20-point, 11-rebound, six-block game for Tarris Reed against St. John's may have moved the needle.
Offensively, he's been ultra efficient just playing to his strengths as a post scorer, roll man and offensive rebounder. But his passing IQ has also become more evident, with Reed now sporting a 17.6 assist percentage.
Though not overly versatile, the areas he excels in appear translatable, with Reed having the size, strength, footwork, short touch and coordination to continue scoring back-to-the-basket and finishing plays. Between his tools, 9.2 block percentage and top-10 defensive box plus-minus, he projects favorably in rim protection as well.
Reed has been gradually moving further up the second-round board this year, as he figures to earn consideration from teams looking for more interior scoring, defensive presence and passing from the center position.
Falling: Braylon Mullins (Connecticut)
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Position: SG | Size: 6'6", 196 lbs | Age: 19
Latest Mock Draft Position: No. 18
The eye test still expects Braylon Mullins' shot to fall on practically every release. But even a shooter as good as Mullins can become vulnerable with a shot diet that consists of so many deep and movement threes. He shot 1-of-10 from downtown against Marquette, and he hasn't been given the chance to show any creation or playmaking to impact games when his jumper is off.
On one hand, there is a plug-and-play aspect to his game, which is all about getting open without the ball. On the other hand, it's tougher to picture upside with a guard who hasn't proven to be a threat as a ball-screen/isolation scorer or passer.
Teams are always looking for shotmakers, so don't expect Mullins to slip too far. But in this draft, if you're not rising, you're falling due to the unique talent in the late lottery to mid-first round range. After starting around No. 10 on our board, Mullins has dropped into the next tier of prospects.
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