Way-Too-Early College Football Upset Picks for 2026
This time of year, it's so difficult to even try to project what an entire college football season is going to look like.
Any given Saturday, basically any college football team can get upset if they aren't on top of their game. Even though Oregon, Indiana and Ohio State are expected to be the nation's top three teams in '26, very few teams go unbeaten anymore.
Predicting when a team is going to let its guard down isn't always easy. Looking over the landscape of the upcoming season, though, there are plenty of potential pitfalls looming.
Portal reinforcements have outfitted some teams as sleepers. New additions have given others playoff aspirations.
The thing with rankings, too, is a lot of times, teams get awarded for the previous year. With the portal, now more than ever, every season is brand new. That means the slate is clean, and every team has reason to think they're one major upset from a playoff run.
Here are some predictions for upsets we see in '26.
Arizona over BYU, September 12
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It's easy to look at the BYU Cougars as being Texas Tech's biggest Big 12 competition again in 2026.
Last year, the Cougars' only two losses during the season came at the hands of Joey McGuire's Red Raiders, keeping them from the College Football Playoff. With quarterback Bear Bachmeier back for his sophomore season and a rugged defense, Kalani Sitake's team will be a tough out once again.
But a potential conference sleeper in '26 is coach Brent Brennan's Arizona Wildcats, coming off a 9-4 season that saw them reel off five consecutive wins to close the regular season before losing by five to SMU in the Holiday Bowl. Quarterback Noah Fifita returns, and they have a lot of skill-position talent.
That speed could give BYU fits, even in Provo. Yes, that's an incredibly difficult place to play, but Arizona is going to be up to the challenge and avenge last year's 33-27 double-overtime loss.
Texas over Ohio State, September 12
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It's time for a little Longhorn payback.
Last year, as both powerhouses were getting their feel for their rosters at the beginning of the season, Ohio State won a 14-7 snore-fest in Columbus. The Buckeyes are expected to be right at the top of the national rankings again early in the season.
Don't expect them to leave the top five throughout the year.
The Longhorns, however, are title contenders also. Expect a massive junior season for Arch Manning, who was really beginning to come into his own and live up to the impossible expectations toward the end of the '25 season.
Now, he's got weapons like receiver Cam Coleman and the running back tandem of Hollywood Smothers and Raleek Brown around him.
Ohio State's explosive offense will be a big, early test for new Texas defensive coordinator Will Muschamp, but there are elite athletes all over the field on both sides of the ball for the Horns. Plus, the Buckeyes must come to Austin.
Texas is going to come away with a big-time win.
LSU over Ole Miss, September 19
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There may not be a bigger game on the entire college football season than when so much more hate is going to be directly injected into a rivalry that already had no love lost.
Lane Kiffin returns to Oxford to face a jilted fan base who loved him oh so dearly just a year ago. But Kiffin left the Rebels on the cusp of a College Football Playoff run, bolting Ole Miss for its biggest rival (sorry, Mississippi State).
Can you imagine what this atmosphere is going to be like? The Rebels have title hopes with quarterback Trinidad Chambliss expected to return and star running back Kewan Lacy ready to go, too.
Nobody re-outfitted their roster through the portal quite like LSU, though. The Bayou Bengals upped their program commitment when they signed Kiffin, and the rock star coach now has an all-star roster. It's going to be big headlines when he goes back to Oxford and wins.
It won't derail the Rebels' playoff dreams, but it'll be a catapult for the Tigers.
Houston over Texas Tech, September 19
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Indiana is the poster child for doing the transfer portal the right way, but nobody has quite thrown greenbacks at stars seeking greener pastures like the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
They pieced together a College Football Playoff roster in a year and are trying to do the same for '26 with a bevy of veterans. But you never know when chemistry will fall through.
As talented as former Cincinnati transfer quarterback Brendan Sorsby is, is he really elite? The Red Raiders are banking on him being, and that's uncertain. He's already played in the Big 12 and, while he performed well, there was some unevenness.
All Willie Fritz does is win, and the really big things normally start in Year 3. He built Georgia Southern and Tulane, and now, he's doing the same at Houston. After a 10-3 season a year ago, the sky's the limit with senior Connor Weigman at quarterback.
This is TTU's biggest test of the year, and though it's going to be difficult for the Cougars to win in Lubbock, they'll be up for it. Look for them to stun the CFB world with an early-season shocker.
California over Clemson, September 25
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Tosh Lupoi is going to win at California. The former Oregon defensive coordinator is too good of a recruiter not to have success.
With an elite sophomore quarterback in Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele leading the way and likely taking a large step forward in '26, the Bears are going to be fun to watch. Lupoi did some quality work in the transfer portal, too.
He surrounded Sagapolutele with strong pass-catchers like Ian Strong (Rutgers), Chase Hendricks (Ohio) and tight end Dorian Thomas (New Mexico). This could wind up being one of the most explosive offenses in the ACC.
They host Clemson on a Friday night, and the Tigers are already going to be mired in a rebuilding year with uncertainty all over the field. There's certainly talent at Clemson, but the Tigers will be relying on underclassmen on both sides of the ball.
Dabo Swinney's program is far from the powerhouse it once was, but a victory by Cal in Lupoi's first year in a "name game" would bring with it some major national exposure and could kickstart a potential sleeper season in Berkeley.
South Carolina over Alabama, September 26
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There were plenty of Ty Simpson doubters leading into the 2025 football season, and all the Alabama senior did was get off to a torrid start that saw him garner Heisman Trophy consideration before tapering off a little for a College Football Playoff team.
Now, though, coach Kalen DeBoer's team is entering a spring with a true, old-fashioned quarterback battle between Austin Mack and Keelon Russell. Whoever wins the job will have immense talent but little experience.
Bama's upside is high, but there are going to be some growing pains. The Crimson Tide are going to lose a game or two in '26 they shouldn't.
LaNorris Sellers could be the one to deliver it. One of college football's most disappointing players returns to South Carolina to try to help Shane Beamer's team rebound from a forgettable season. The junior has as much talent as any signal-caller in the nation.
The Gamecocks showed everybody late in the season what they could do by jumping all over Texas A&M in College Station before the biggest comeback (and collapse) of the season kept the Aggies unbeaten.
Beamer will have his team up going into Tuscaloosa. Don't be surprised if they slip up on the Tide.
Kansas State over Houston, October 10
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Yes, I know we've already talked about Houston going to Lubbock and upsetting a very strong Texas Tech team. But that's not to say this Cougars team is perfect.
Coach Willie Fritz's roster still has plenty of holes and hasn't been built with the type of depth to sustain an entire season yet. There will be some slip-ups, and I still like TTU to win the Big 12.
One of my two sleeper picks along with Arizona in '26 that could contend with the Red Raiders, Utah, Houston and BYU is Kansas State. With first-year coach and favorite son Collin Klein calling the shots after a successful run as Texas A&M's offensive coordinator, he could resurrect Avery Johnson's career.
WIth Joe Jackson's explosive ability at running back and Johnson's dual-threat capabilities leading the way, this team is dangerous. The program isn't too far removed from being Big 12 contenders, and playing in Manhattan is never easy.
That's where the Cougars travel on October 10, and that's a dangerous spot of the season for a team that could be riding a high.
The Wildcats are going to get a program-confirming win at home.
Penn State over Michigan, October 17
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Penn State is one of those programs who experienced an extensive facelift in the offseason when its woebegone coaching search landed on a strong finding in Matt Campbell. The Iowa State coach pretty much picked up his Cyclones roster and moved it to Happy Valley.
Now, he will have a veteran-laded squad, led by senior signal-caller Rocco Becht, who is going to become a fan favorite in a place used to winning.
Will Campbell be an upgrade over James Franklin? That remains to be seen, but the Nittany Lions have a ton of upside, keeping some key pieces to last year's team and adding a lot of the playmakers from Iowa State. There will be ups and downs, but PSU could be good.
While it's difficult to ever see Michigan overlooking a blue blood like Penn State in the Big House, remember the Wolverines come right back with a home game against the national champion Indiana Hoosiers the next week.
That's a grueling, back-to-back stretch, and it's a bit of a trap spot, even for a home team. Coach Kyle Whittingham's team will have to get up in a big way to win them both.
This scenario sees PSU getting its biggest win of the season.
Virginia Tech over Miami, November 20
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Miami is going to be the class of the ACC, and the Hurricanes were in 2025, despite not even making it to the championship game. Don't expect any differently in '26.
But coach Mario Cristobal's team normally loses a game or two that it shouldn't, and even with Darian Mensah poised to be one of college football's top signal-callers next year, it certainly could happen again with youth and inexperience taking over at certain positions.
This late in the season, new Virginia Tech coach James Franklin is going to be looking for a signature win, and even though this is one of the two longest shots on the list (along with the next one), the Hokies will be jelled by this time of the year.
Franklin put together one of the best transfer portal classes, positioning his team to win instantly. Ethan Grunkemeyer should make a big leap in his first full year as a starting quarterback, and the Hokies have added some weaponry to its roster.
A trip to Coral Gables is the toughest test of the season, but this has the feel of being an important ACC game again now that Franklin is roaming the sideline for Virginia Tech.
Washington over Indiana, November 21
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Nobody is doubting Indiana's revamped roster with several key pieces returning and new quarterback Josh Hoover. But the Hoosiers play a daunting schedule that is rife with potential potholes.
It's extremely difficult to repeat as national champions in this era of college football, and expecting another undefeated season is asking a lot, especially with games against Ohio State and USC and trips to Michigan and Washington.
A cross-country haul to Seattle late in the season isn't going to be easy at all.
This is expected to be a big year for the Huskies now that all the transfer-portal drama settled with Demond Williams Jr., and he's back with the team after entering the portal, exiting and publicly committing to Washington after the program threatened legal action.
Williams is one of the most exciting players in college football, and he is going to have a big year. He may even contend for the Heisman Trophy.
This game is at the end of a particularly difficult run for the Hoosiers, and while they're probably the most mentally tough team in the nation, that long trip may not bode well. This could be a banner win for coach Jedd Fisch's program.
UCLA over USC, November 28
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Don't underestimate a bit of a resurgence from the UCLA Bruins with new coach Bob Chesney at the helm.
Nobody is predicting them to have the type of first-year flurry that Indiana experienced when the last James Madison coach – Curt Cignetti – bolted the Dukes for a Power Four program, but there are some quality players on that UCLA roster.
A dismal 3-9 season in 2025 necessitated change, and nobody is talking about the Bruins doing anything of any value in the Big Ten this year. But Nico Iamaleava has plenty of talent, and there were flashes of his potential late in the season despite things didn't go as planned after transferring from Tennessee.
Chesney brought with him offensive coordinator Dean Kennedy who helped turn Alonza Barnett III into a quality quarterback during a College Football Playoff run at JMU. What is he going to do with Iamaleava's development?
The answer to that question is unknown, but getting a huge rivalry win over USC would go a long way in helping Chesney establish the program he's trying to build at the end of Year 1.
This isn't going to be a great year for UCLA, but expecting one stunning win isn't out of the question, and USC hasn't rebuilt into a powerhouse just yet, even if the Trojans' recruiting prowess indicates they're on their way.
