Predicting Where Top Players in MLB Trade Rumors Finish 2026 Season
In most Major League Baseball offseasons, the five-week window from mid-February leading up to Saint Patrick's Day is typically uneventful as far as trades are concerned, as teams are just focused on spring training and trying to identify potential impact players within the organization.
We did have that big Dylan Cease trade in mid-March two offseasons ago, but that was a major exception to the rule. Last winter, there was precisely one trade completed between Feb. 5 and March 21, and it was an inconsequential swap of Mason Englert and Drew Sommers. And the ol' trade rumor mill has been mighty quiet over the past two weeks yet again.
But while we wait on things to start percolating on that front again, how about some predictions on where the most noteworthy previously rumored and/or speculative trade candidates will be playing seven months from now?
For what it's worth, I also did this exercise late last February, but ended up almost exclusively identifying players who didn't get traded. Of the 11, only Ryan Helsley and Erick Fedde were dealt, and I missed on both of those landing spots.
Nowhere to go but up, right?
Players are presented in alphabetical order by last name.
CJ Abrams, SS, Washington Nationals
1 of 8
Contract: $4.2M in 2026, arbitration-eligible in 2027 and 2028
Ends Season With: New York Yankees
It seems like a bit of a bad sign for the Washington Nationals that you can bet on who will win the fewest games this season, and they are basically tied with the "averaging 108.0 losses over the past three years" Chicago White Sox, behind only the "averaging 107.7 losses over the past three years" Colorado Rockies for shortest odds on that list.
Washington has been rebuilding since the pandemic, and isn't any closer to actually re-emerging as a contender. The Nats traded away MacKenzie Gore and Jose A. Ferrer this winter. They didn't add much that is liable to help the team in 2026, unless you're irrationally optimistic about Miles Mikolas.
So, is CJ Abrams next?
Or are they going to keep him with high hopes of vying for a World Series by 2028?
Even if they are willing to move him, where would he fit?
The most logical answer is a TBD team trying to recover from a TBD injury to a key middle infielder, because most of the contenders are either pretty set at both 2B and SS or are at least hopeful that they'll feel much better about handing the reins to a top prospect once spring training ends.
Short of knowing what injury news will look like in early August, though, the Yankees may make the most sense here.
Primary 2B Jazz Chisholm Jr. has plans of joining the 50/50 club, but he is often injured, and it's his final season before free agency. Primary SS Anthony Volpe is recovering from labrum surgery and is probably entering a make-or-break year after three straight seasons with an OPS of around .660.
Even with top prospect George Lombard Jr. possibly ready to make his MLB debut at some point this season, the Bronx Bombers might be on the hunt for some middle infield help this summer.
Sandy Alcantara, RHP, Miami Marlins
2 of 8
Contract: $17M in 2026, $21M club option (or $2M buyout) for 2027
Ends Season With: Detroit Tigers
Sandy Alcantara was a strong candidate to be traded last season, except it took him too long to get back to pitching like he did before losing the 2024 campaign to Tommy John surgery.
Though he was healthy enough only to miss one early April turn through the rotation, Alcantara had a 7.14 ERA through 19 starts, keeping prospective buyers from being willing to give up much of anything to get him. But he had a 3.13 ERA the rest of the way, logging seven quality starts in his final eight appearances.
So, he's back. But are the Marlins?
Given their win total line of 72.5, probably not. Maybe they'll surprise us with the additions of Owen Caissie and Pete Fairbanks, but selling at the deadline is far more likely than buying, and Alcantara is clearly their best trade chip.
And, man, wouldn't it be fun if Detroit got him?
After months of speculation that the Tigers might consider trading away Tarik Skubal, they could instead end up with a postseason rotation of Skubal, Alcantara, Framber Valdez, and Justin Verlander/Jack Flaherty.
Even looking beyond this upcoming October and assuming Skubal signs elsewhere for a preposterous sum of money next winter, trading for Alcantara would put at least the top of the Tigers' rotation in pretty great shape for 2027.
Byron Buxton, CF, Minnesota Twins
3 of 8
Contract: $15M in each of 2026, 2027 and 2028
Ends Season With: Houston Astros
I am well aware that Byron Buxton called himself a "Twin for life" during last year's All-Star Break and that he has a full no-trade clause.
I am also well aware that the sound bite came two weeks before Minnesota's aggressive fire sale, and that losing Pablo López to Tommy John surgery before spring training really got going kind of derailed Minnesota's hopes and dreams for 2026. (Not to mention, his comments came well before living in the Twin Cities got a lot less comfortable this winter.)
It was already widely believed that the Twins might reignite their fire sale this offseason, as seemingly every remotely established contributor on the roster is slated for free agency within the next 2.5 years. But while they ended up doing a wee bit of buying and no real selling over the past few months, they could absolutely go back to the selling well this summer if this season craters and they're sitting 15-20 games behind the Tigers and Guardians.
Assuming Buxton has become (or will become) willing to waive his no-trade clause to go to a contender—and assuming he's healthy at the trade deadline, which has never been a safe assumption over the years—there are definitely a few who could use the help in center field.
Houston stands out from the crowd, though.
Jake Meyers was fine as the Astros' primary CF in 2025, but he has a career .678 OPS in 465 games played. He was good enough for them to throw in the towel on Chas McCormick after back-to-back bad seasons, but it's hard to imagine they would turn up their noses at the prospect of adding Buxton on account of their overflowing confidence in Meyers as the guy.
(They also don't have a great plan in place at left field, so they could even move him there if they insist on sticking with Meyers.)
Yandy Díaz, 1B/DH, Tampa Bay Rays
4 of 8
Contract: $12M in 2026 with a $10M club option for 2027 that becomes a vested $13M salary with 500 plate appearances in 2026.
Ends Season With: San Diego Padres
Tampa Bay is tentatively trying to contend in 2026, even though pretty much everyone expects them to be bringing up the rear in the AL East.
In defense of the Rays, pretty much everyone felt the same way about Toronto at this time one year ago, and things worked out pretty well for that squad. So maybe the acquisitions of Cedric Mullins, Gavin Lux, Nick Martinez, and Steven Matz prove to be the moves that put this team in the running for a spot in the postseason.
More likely, though, it's going to be a middling-at-best year in Tampa, and the summertime Rays will be willing to part with a key player who could be trending towards locking in a $13M salary for the following season.
And if the Nick Castellanos, league-minimum salary experiment at first base doesn't pan out for the Padres, they're likely to be in the market for a 1B/DH type of hits-for-average bat after a few months of missing Luis Arraez's value added to the lineup.
(Of course, that's assuming the Padres are still in the mix for a playoff spot in their own right come early August, but they should be, even if winning the NL West is out of the question by then.)
Jarren Duran, OF, Boston Red Sox
5 of 8
Contract: $7.7M in 2026, arbitration-eligible in 2027 and 2028
Ends Season With: New York Mets
Most of the guys on this list are here because they are good players with minimal years of team control, currently employed by teams that aren't expected to sniff the postseason.
It's not exactly rocket science.
With Jarren Duran, however, the justification is that the World Series-hopeful Red Sox have a surplus of quality outfielders—Roman Anthony, Wilyer Abreu, and Ceddanne Rafaela in addition to Duran—and could look to clear their logjam while simultaneously fixing a different position of need.
Most likely, that position would be second or third base, though shortstop is also on the table if Trevor Story is unable to replicate what he did in 2025.
In most years, it'd be quite the needle to thread, needing to find a team that A) is buying at the deadline, B) needs an outfielder/DH, and C) has a quality infielder to spare.
This year, though, the Astros, Cubs, and Mets could all fit the bill, each with a darn good "extra" infielder and a question mark at one (or both) of the corner outfield spots.
Of the bunch, the Mets are probably most likely to reach a point of desperation if rookie Carson Benge doesn't hit the ground running. They could throw both Mark Vientos and Brett Baty Boston's way without even parting with a starter, and that could be quite the windfall for the Red Sox if both second and third are problem areas.
Munetaka Murakami, 1B/3B/DH, Chicago White Sox
6 of 8
Contract: $17M in each of 2026 and 2027
Ends Season With: Pittsburgh Pirates
The White Sox were the surprising winner of the Munetaka Murakami sweepstakes this winter, signing the Japanese slugger/whiffer to just a two-year deal.
But what happens if Murakami does a pretty good impersonation of "peak Joey Gallo" for four months while things otherwise go every bit as poorly for Chicago as the past three seasons have?
Goodness knows, these would-be sellers don't have a whole lot to sell. The White Sox only have eight players on the payroll who aren't under team control for at least four more years, and most of them are regrettable contracts (Andrew Benintendi, Jordan Hicks) and/or reclamation projects (Erick Fedde, Anthony Kay).
Maybe they'd be willing to turn Murakami into a few prospects?
If they were to make him available, there's a good chance the Pirates would come calling.
Pittsburgh upgraded a bunch of spots in its lineup this offseason, adding Marcell Ozuna, Brandon Lowe, Ryan O'Hearn, Jake Mangum, and Jhostynxon Garcia to what had been a hapless offense in 2025. But both corner infield spots remain a considerable weak point, with Jared Triolo the projected starter at third base and Spencer Horwitz probably the choice at first.
They tried to get Eugenio Suárez late in the offseason, but missed out as he went back to Cincinnati instead. If this much busier than usual winter gets them into the running for October for a change, maybe they trade for a big bat at either corner.
JoJo Romero, LHP, St. Louis Cardinals
7 of 8
Contract: $4.26M in 2026, Free Agent next offseason
Ends Season With: Toronto Blue Jays
Any St. Louis Cardinal with fewer than three remaining years of team control is unofficially already on the trade block.
That means Dustin May, if he has a bounce-back year, as well as Lars Nootbaar, who has one year of arbitration eligibility remaining after this one.
But mostly, it means JoJo Romero, who figures to be the Cardinals' No. 1 option for saves in his final season before hitting free agency for the first time.
At worst, he's going to be the left-handed half of a closer platoon with Riley O'Brien, but he should get enough chances in clutch situations to prove himself worthy of playing a big role for a contender.
Romero made 65 appearances with a 2.07 ERA last season, tallying eight saves in the two months after they cut ties with Ryan Helsley. A similar run through the first half of 2026—combined with his minimal salary—would make him one of the most coveted relievers on the trade block.
As far as a landing spot goes, throw a dart at a projected contender, as seemingly every postseason-bound team is looking to shore up its bullpen over the summer.
Toronto looks like a better fit than most, though, as not only could the Blue Jays use another experienced southpaw reliever, but there's a non-zero chance they'll be looking to replace (or at least buttress) Jeff Hoffman with another ninth-inning option.
Joe Ryan, RHP, Minnesota Twins
8 of 8
Contract: $6.2M in 2026, $13M mutual option for 2027 (arbitration-eligible if and when the mutual option is declined)
Ends Season With: Seattle Mariners
We've already discussed in the Byron Buxton section why Minnesota may well be throwing in the towel at the trade deadline for a second consecutive year. The Twins are +500 to make the playoffs with a win total line of 73.5—and that o/u inexplicably didn't move an inch after the news of Pablo López's Tommy John surgery.
And with Joe Ryan, A) only under team control for one more year beyond the upcoming season and B) not in possession of a full no-trade clause, he is perhaps 10 times as likely to be traded as Buxton.
However, for around 1.33 seasons (and ideally two postseasons) of what has been a borderline top-20 pitcher over the past four years, Ryan won't come cheap.
There were no starting pitchers of this caliber dealt at last year's deadline, but remember the Luis Castillo trade in 2022? For 1.33 seasons of a borderline top-25 pitcher, Seattle gave up three of its five best prospects, including Noelvi Marte, who was a top-20 prospect in all of baseball at that point.
Could the Mariners do it again?
They have one of the most talent-rich farm systems, largely consisting of top players who are likely at least a year away from actually contributing in the big leagues—which is the sort of top prospect a rebuilding team would covet.
And while their starting five of Castillo, Bryan Woo, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, and Bryce Miller is stout, Logan Evans is already out for the year, and it's looking like Emerson Hancock or Dane Dunning as the "break in case of emergency" backup starter. In other words, Seattle is one report of "forearm tightness" away from potentially needing to swing big for an ace-caliber arm, while also needing it to be an arm with a salary figure that doesn't break their bank.
Ryan could fill that role, if they're willing to part with a package headlined by something like Kade Anderson and Jonny Farmelo.
