Predicting Where Top Players Involved in MLB Trade Rumors Will Finish '25 Season
Rosters for the 2025 Major League Baseball season are more or less finalized at this point. There are still a few somewhat noteworthy free agents lingering out there unclaimed (most notably Jose Quintana), and there will inevitably be more injuries before Opening Day that impact lineups, but things are mostly set.
So let's shake things up with trade possibilities, because certain players just keep popping up in trade rumors.
We've probably spent more time talking about Nolan Arenado over the past four months than we did throughout any of the six seasons in which he finished top eight in the NL MVP vote. And goodness knows the Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scuttlebutt will be just about nonstop until he signs a new contract next winter.
Will those stars (and others) actually get traded before this summer's deadline? And, if so, where are they likely to land?
Let's make some educated guesses.
Sandy Alcantara, RHP, Miami Marlins
1 of 7
Contract: $17.3M in 2025, $17.3M in 2026, $21M club option (or $2M buyout) in 2027
The Miami Marlins were adamant from the outset that they had no intentions of trading away Sandy Alcántara this offseason, and they have thus far stuck by that.
However, we're all kind of expecting it to happen before this summer's trade deadline.
They probably just outright told people they wouldn't be trading him now because they didn't feel like dealing with lowball offers for a recent Cy Young winner who is coming off an even more recent Tommy John surgery, instead hoping he can reassert his dominance over the first few months of the 2025 campaign and be worth more in July than he would've been in January.
And if he does perform in the first half of 2025 like he did for most of 2022, hoo boy, the bidding war will be fierce for what would at that point be 2.33 seasons of his services at an overall dollar cost of $44M.
At the rate that starting pitchers are going for in free agency these days, 2.33 years of Alcántara would cost nearly double that. For that percentage of the Corbin Burnes and Blake Snell contracts signed this winter, you're talking $81.5M-$84.8M. For that type of discount, you can bet teams would be willing to part with some serious prospect capital.
Now, if he struggles or if the Marlins are a contender—one of those scenarios is substantially likelier than the other—that changes things. But there's a good chance he's on the move this summer to a team with A) multiple top-100 prospects, B) reasonable hope for a World Series within the next three years and C) at least some degree of disposable income. (It's a shame the Pirates don't meet that third criteria, but maybe they go for it?)
Ends Season With: Boston Red Sox
Luis Castillo, RHP, Seattle Mariners
2 of 7
Contract: $24.15M in 2025, $24.15M in 2026, $24.15M in 2027, $25M vesting option in 2028 (if he pitches 180 innings in 2027)
Notably, Luis Castillo has a full no-trade clause through the end of this season. So if he's happy in Seattle or simply isn't interested in playing for the highest bidder for his services, end of discussion, he stays with the Mariners.
But there were a lot of trade rumors swirling around Castillo back in December, so let's at least temporarily assume he's still available for the right price.
Who reasonably could pay it, either now or a few months from now?
The fly in the ointment here may well be a certain right-handed pitcher we just discussed above: Why commit to (if acquired now) $72.45M for three years of Castillo when $55.6M for three years of Sandy Alcántara might be on the table instead?
Chances are the Mariners would be willing to accept less as far as the players coming back in the deal are concerned, but that may have been enough of a fleeting thought to pump the brakes on any sort of Castillo blockbuster earlier this winter.
Both could be on the move this summer, though, if the Mariners feel OK with rolling with Emerson Hancock and/or reach a point where they need to consider drastic measures in order to improve the state of their lineup.
And the Baltimore Orioles would almost have to be interested here.
Not only is the O's current starting rotation maybe the worst among World Series hopefuls, but they have each of Zach Eflin, Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano signed through only this season, so they are destined to be in the market for at least one quality arm next offseason.
Maybe they don't want to do it now for $24.15M, but $8M for the final two months of this season to also have an ace in place for the next two years seems more than doable. They certainly have a stockpile of position players to offer Seattle, too.
Ends Season With: Baltimore Orioles
Dylan Cease, RHP, San Diego Padres
3 of 7
Contract: $13.75M in 2025
The San Diego Padres might be the biggest X-Factor in determining how star-studded this year's trade deadline ends up being.
The big, big names like Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Xander Bogaerts presumably aren't going anywhere, still owed a combined total of something like $860M through 2034. But Luis Arraez ($14M in 2025 before free agency), Michael King ($4M in 2025 plus a $15M mutual option for 2026) and Robert Suarez ($10M in 2025, plus a two-year, $16M player option for 2026-27) could all be on the move if they fall hopelessly out of contention.
The most noteworthy one, though, is Dylan Cease.
Before the Padres signed Nick Pivetta to his four-year, $55M deal, there was a lot of rumbling that Cease could be on the move before Opening Day—as he was last winter.
However, that always felt unlikely, as the Padres in their current state are exponentially more of a viable contender than the Chicago White Sox were last winter. Throwing in the towel on a $200M payroll by trading away arguably the best pitcher before the season even began never made much sense.
It's plenty plausible for five months from now, though, if the quintet of Arizona, Atlanta, Los Angeles, New York and Philadelphia is as good as it ought to be, putting San Diego in a spot where getting something in exchange for the players likely to leave in November is a better option than just going down with the ship.
And perhaps this is where two of the most oft-mentioned, active GMs in baseball finally get a deal done with each other.
San Diego's AJ Preller and Atlanta's Alex Anthopoulos have only made one trade since the latter joined his current club in late 2017, and it was a bit of a nothing swap two Decembers ago. But pairing the mustachioed Cease with the mustachioed Spencer Strider, even if it's just for a few months, might be the motivation necessary to bring the two wheelers-and-dealers together for a slight blockbuster.
Ends Season With: Atlanta Braves
.jpg?w=256)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, Toronto Blue Jays
4 of 7
Contract: $28.5M in 2025
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s self-imposed deadline for a contract extension has come and gone, so it looks like he'll be playing out this final year of arbitration eligibility before springboarding into what he hopes will be a windfall in free agency, just like Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto before him.
Now, the big question has become whether he'll still be with the Blue Jays in August, or whether they'll be far enough out of contention to put what would be a massive several-month rental on the trade block, a la Manny Machado in 2018.
They're not going to trade him before the season, though. That ship sailed when they invested in the likes of Andrés Giménez, Anthony Santander, Jeff Hoffman and Max Scherzer. After all those additions, they're surely at least going to try to contend through the All-Star break before even considering any sort of exit strategy.
How far gone would they need to be at the deadline, though?
When the 2021 Chicago Cubs started unloading the likes of Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant, they were nine games back for the final wild-card spot and even further back in the NL Central race. Conversely, the 2023 Los Angeles Angels were 3.5 games back for the last wild-card spot and 6.5 games out of the AL West race when they doubled down and brought in Lucas Giolito and more rather than trading away Ohtani.
Toronto's win total over/under these days is either 78.5 or 79.5, depending on your preferred source there. But that feels about right. Maybe even a bit low. And if the Blue Jays are roughly .500 in late July, they probably aren't trading away Guerrero. (Or Bo Bichette. Or Chris Bassitt.)
If Guerrero does get dealt, the Seattle Mariners look like the prime candidate to make it happen. But he probably won't be.
Ends Season With: Toronto Blue Jays
Luis Robert Jr., CF, Chicago White Sox
5 of 7
Contract: $15M in 2025, $20M club option (or $2M buyout) in 2026, $20M club option (or $2M buyout) in 2027
Amid a rebuilding project that still mostly just resembles a massive hole in the ground, the Chicago White Sox had two obvious goals for this winter: Get a nice platter of prospects for Garrett Crochet and get something beyond salary relief in exchange for Luis Robert Jr.
Whether they got enough in return for Crochet probably will be open to debate for a couple of years, but they accomplished one of those goals back in mid-December.
Still waiting on that second goal, though.
Considering arguably the best center fielder available in free agency this winter was Harrison Bader, it's surprising that the White Sox have yet to receive a good enough offer to move Robert.
Yes, the injury history is a concern, but we're still talking about a 27-year-old with several years of team control, 64 home runs and 54 stolen bases over the past three seasons combined, in spite of the limited playing time.
Players like that don't exactly grow on trees. In fact, Robert is one of only nine players in that 64/54 club, alongside Shohei Ohtani, Bobby Witt Jr., José Ramírez, Julio Rodríguez, Francisco Lindor, Trea Turner, Kyle Tucker and Jose Altuve.
But, sure, let's grimace at the injury history while teams who fancy themselves as contenders this season are ready to go to war with the likes of Jose Siri, Jake Meyers, Kyle Isbel, TJ Friedl or Jo Adell as their primary CF.
For all of the teams in question there, finding another $15M in the budget at this point in the offseason most likely isn't feasible, which explains the lack of any news on the Robert front as of late.
There's still time, though. The White Sox didn't trade away Dylan Cease until mid-March last year. Or if he does make it to Opening Day in Chicago and looks good in April, get ready for some slow-starting team to pull the trigger on this year's Luis Arraez-style early May trade.
Ends Season With: Houston Astros
Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Detroit Tigers
6 of 7
Contract: Pre-arbitration, won't reach free agency until after 2028
Immediately after the Tigers signed Gleyber Torres and decided on shifting Colt Keith to first base, the seemingly obvious writing on the wall was: Spencer Torkelson is on the trade block.
Yet, in three of their first four games of spring training, there was Torkelson in the starting lineup, twice at first base, once at designated hitter, as it looks like they're at least going to try to find a role for him in 2025.
Hard to blame them, of course. They made Torkelson the No. 1 overall pick in the 2020 draft, he clubbed 31 home runs in 2023 and he was at least serviceable over the final six weeks of last season after spending a couple of months down at Triple-A trying to find his swing.
Trading him just to trade him always seemed a little ridiculous, especially considering they only signed Torres to a one-year deal.
Moreover, when there was talk of the Tigers wanting Alex Bregman, one of the big selling points was that they needed to add some right-handed power to their lineup...even though the right-handed Torkelson is sitting right there, ready to be put to use.
If they do trade him, they've got to get something pretty good in return. You simply don't throw in the towel on a No. 1 overall pick less than five years after drafting him, not when he's hit more home runs in the majors than any other player drafted that year.
But he has also been worth negative-0.3 bWAR 361 games into his career, so, who's giving up something pretty good for that?
If you were to say "He's definitely getting traded, just pick the best partner," the Blue Jays make sense, yeah? They're probably losing Guerrero after this season and could use a long-term plan at first base. They could even slide Vlad back over to 3B, which is presently a bit of a mess for them.
Torkelson probably isn't going anywhere, though.
Ends Season With: Detroit Tigers
A Conclave of Cardinals
7 of 7
Nolan Arenado's Contract: $21M in 2025, $16M in 2026, $15M in 2027, plus about $40M deferred through 2041
Sonny Gray's Contract: $25M in 2025, $35M in 2026, $30M club option (or $5M buyout) in 2027
Miles Mikolas' Contract: $17.7M in 2025
Ryan Helsley's Contract: $8.2M in 2025
Erick Fedde's Contract: $7.5M in 2025
Apologies in advance for the length of this final section, but we might as well address all of the St. Louis Cardinals trade candidates together, right? Because if they're going to steer into a rebuild and try to move one of them, they're probably going to attempt to unload them all.
(Except for Willson Contreras. He has been mentioned as a possible trade candidate at times this offseason, but they probably hang onto him, pending how things go with his transition to first base.)
At this point, it borders upon malpractice that the Cardinals have done nothing this offseason.
Oh, there has been plenty of talk of wanting to do things. They started out the offseason with a stated plan of building for the future. And nearly 34-year-old third baseman Nolan Arenado has been linked to both the Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox probably more times than Alex Bregman was during his drawn out free agency negotiation process.
What they've actually accomplished, however, is zilch.
Not a single trade.
Not a single signing of a player likely to crack the 26-man Opening Day roster.
They've basically just gotten a bit older and declined club options to bring back Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson and Keynan Middleton.
So, are they a contender? Or are we just waiting for a somewhat inevitable fire sale?
Considering the Cubs have become the relatively clear favorite in the NL Central, considering the Brewers aren't exactly out of the conversation and considering it is unlikely the Central produces a wild-card team when you've got ATL/NYM/PHI in the East and LAD/ARI/SDP in the West, the fire sale option seems much more likely than contender.
Let's fly through some predictions then.
Arenado Ends Season With: New York Yankees. They were reportedly one of the teams Arenado was willing to waive his no-trade clause for, and there's a decent chance they'll be desperate enough to take on the rest of his contract after a few months of trying to platoon Oswaldo Cabrera, DJ LeMahieu and Oswald Peraza at the hot corner.
Gray Ends Season With: New York Mets. St. Louis might need to retain a decent chunk of that 2026/2027 money to get a good return for Gray, but it sure is already looking like the Mets will be in the market for arms this summer.
Mikolas Ends Season With: Cardinals. Over the past two seasons, only Patrick Corbin allowed more earned runs (213) than Mikolas (209), and no one has signed Corbin in free agency. Mikolas will be almost 37 at the trade deadline and still owed a prorated amount of nearly $6M. Not likely there will be any takers here, but maybe he surprises us with a renaissance.
Helsley Ends Season With: Texas Rangers. Among the projected contenders, Texas has the biggest question mark at closer. It's surprising the Rangers didn't do more about that this offseason, but they could address it in July.
Fedde Ends Season With: Cleveland Guardians. Ideally, he'll go to the Reds for a 'Fedde-Cincy Alfredo' headline. But if the Guardians are anywhere close to a playoff spot at the deadline, getting back Shane Bieber from Tommy John surgery and adding in an inexpensive arm like Fedde's could anchor a late push, as this is presently one of the bleakest rotations.
.jpg?w=480)
