Latest 2026 Men's NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections

Can you believe the 2026 men's NCAA tournament begins in one month?

Just four short weeks remain until a showdown in Dayton between two No. 16 seeds half the country has never heard of, followed by a game between two bubble teams that half the country doesn't think deserved to be in the field.

It's almost here.

Before Selection Sunday arrives, though, we do have one big bracketology hurdle coming up this Saturday, when the selection committee will reveal its top 16 seeds as things stand.

Take it to the bank that our current projected No. 1 seeds Michigan, Duke, Arizona and Connecticut will feature prominently in that exercise, as they are four of the 25 or so teams who are a lock to dance.

As far as the rest goes, you'll just have to keep reading.

In our latest forecast of the 2026 NCAA tournament field, projected auto bids from each of the 31 conferences are based on conference record. In cases where there is a tie atop the league standings, the tied team with the best average rank among the six team sheet metrics—KPI, SOR, WAB, BPI, KenPom and Torvik—gets the nod.

With that out of the way, let's start with the full bracket before some commentary on the current state of the bubble and the top seed line. Following that, we have a full conference-by-conference rundown, highlighting some of the biggest changes from one week ago.

The Projected Bracket

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East Region (Washington, D.C.)

Greenville, SC
No. 1 Duke vs. No. 16 Tennessee Martin
No. 8 Iowa vs. No. 9 UCF

Tampa, FL
No. 4 Vanderbilt vs. No. 13 UNC Wilmington
No. 5 St. John's vs. No. 12 Belmont

Greenville, SC
No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 14 Cal Baptist
No. 6 North Carolina vs. No. 11 UCLA

Oklahoma City, OK
No. 2 Kansas vs. No. 15 Navy
No. 7 Kentucky vs. No. 10 SMU

Midwest Region (Chicago)

Buffalo, NY
No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 16 Howard / NJIT
No. 8 Clemson vs. No. 9 Auburn

Philadelphia, PA
No. 4 Virginia vs. No. 13 High Point
No. 5 Arkansas vs. No. 12 South Florida

Tampa, FL
No. 3 Florida vs. No. 14 Austin Peay
No. 6 Saint Louis vs. No. 11 TCU

Oklahoma City, OK
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 15 Merrimack
No. 7 Utah State vs. No. 10 Texas A&M

South Region (Houston)

Philadelphia, PA
No. 1 Connecticut vs. No. 16 Long Island / Bethune Cookman
No. 8 Miami (FL) vs. No. 9 Miami (OH)

Portland, OR
No. 4 Michigan State vs. No. 13 Hawaii
No. 5 Tennessee vs. No. 12 Yale

Buffalo, NY
No. 3 Nebraska vs. No. 14 Portland State
No. 6 Louisville vs. No. 11 Saint Mary's / San Diego State

St. Louis, MO
No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 15 East Tennessee State
No. 7 BYU vs. No. 10 Indiana

West Region (San Jose)

San Diego, CA
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 16 Wright State
No. 8 NC State vs. No. 9 USC

Portland, OR
No. 4 Gonzaga vs. No. 13 Stephen F. Austin
No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 12 Liberty

San Diego, CA
No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 14 North Dakota State
No. 6 Wisconsin vs. No. 11 New Mexico / Georgia

St. Louis, MO
No. 2 Purdue vs. No. 15 Appalachian State
No. 7 Villanova vs. No. 10 Texas

Ranking the No. 1 Seeds

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1. Michigan Wolverines (24-1, NET: 1, RES: 1.0, QUAL: 1.3)
2. Duke Blue Devils (24-2, NET: 2, RES: 2.3, QUAL: 3.0)
3. Arizona Wildcats (23-2, NET: 3, RES: 3.7, QUAL: 3.3)
4. Connecticut Huskies (24-2, NET: 10, RES: 3.3, QUAL: 9.7)
5. Houston Cougars (23-3, NET: 4, RES: 5.3, QUAL: 3.0)

The selection committee's top 16 reveal usually happens on the first Saturday after the Super Bowl. But this year, they pushed it back a week to Feb. 21.

Surely it couldn't have anything to do with the colossal showdown between Michigan and Duke on Feb. 21, could it?

We'll see if the committee agrees, but following Arizona's recent pair of losses, there's a good chance that—even if Michigan loses at Purdue on Tuesday night—Duke and Michigan will be occupying the top two overall spots in the Saturday afternoon reveal, before squaring off that evening in Washington D.C. for a possible national championship preview.

Even before Arizona's loss to Texas Tech, there was a compelling argument for the Wolverines at No. 1 overall. But at this point, they are the clear choice for the top spot.

Meanwhile, Duke sneaks up to No. 2 overall by virtue of its six Quad 1A wins.

We'll touch more on Arizona in the Big 12 Summary, but the Wildcats are still hanging around at No. 3 overall, with a bit of help from their true road win over No. 4 overall UConn.

Watch out for Houston, though, even after the tough loss at Iowa State on Monday night. The Cougars host Arizona on Saturday before playing at Kansas on Monday. They are a bit lacking in the "upper echelon wins" department, but that would change in a New York minute if they were to win both of those games. Doing so would maybe vault them straight to No. 2 overall, behind only the Michigan-Duke victor.

10 Words on Each of the 10 'Bubbliest' Teams

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UCLA's Donovan Dent

Fifth-to-Last In: UCLA Bruins (17-8, NET: 40, RES: 48.3, QUAL: 38.7)—UCLA's resume hinges on how much committee values sweeping Washington.

Fourth-to-Last In: Saint Mary's Gaels (22-4, NET: 26, RES: 33.3, QUAL: 32.7)—Metrics are great, but would you beat one tournament team?

Third-to-Last In: San Diego State Aztecs (17-6, NET: 41, RES: 44.7, QUAL: 42.3)—Still hanging around with many coin-flip games yet to come.

Second-to-Last In: New Mexico Lobos (18-6, NET: 44, RES: 46.7, QUAL: 47.7)—Win at Grand Canyon pushes Lobos back in (for now).

Last Team In: Georgia Bulldogs (17-8, NET: 39, RES: 44.3, QUAL: 43.0)—Lost five of six; possibly four of next five, too.

***Cut Line***

First Team Out: Missouri Tigers (17-8, NET: 66, RES: 47.7, QUAL: 49.0)—Godspeed in next eight days against Vanderbilt, Arkansas and Tennessee.

Second Team Out: Virginia Tech Hokies (17-9, NET: 58, RES: 47.3, QUAL: 64.7)—Got a great win at Clemson; terrible loss to FSU.

Third Team Out: Santa Clara Broncos (21-6, NET: 42, RES: 42.7, QUAL: 41.7)—Far from dead, but loss to Gonzaga was major miss.

Fourth Team Out: VCU Rams (20-6, NET: 46, RES: 46.0, QUAL: 48.7)—Similar resume to Saint Mary's, albeit with two additional losses.

Fifth Team Out: West Virginia Mountaineers (16-9, NET: 54, RES: 57.0, QUAL: 50.7)—Win at UCF put West Virginia back onto the fringe.

ACC Summary

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Miami's Tre Donaldson

8 Teams in the Projected Field: 2. Duke, 13. Virginia, 21. North Carolina, 22. Louisville, 29. Clemson, 30. Miami, 31. NC State, 40. SMU

Also Considered: Virginia Tech, California

Biggest Development: Miami breaks Caleb Wilson

For seeding purposes, the biggest development in the ACC was Miami finally getting a pair of much-needed quality wins.

The Hurricanes entered the week at 18-5 overall, but with an 0-3 record against projected tournament teams—each of those losses to Florida, BYU and Clemson coming by a double-digit margin, no less. They were our next-to-last team in the field.

One home win over North Carolina and one road win over NC State later, Miami is suddenly a No. 8 seed that will be dancing so long as it doesn't repeatedly shoot itself in the foot down the stretch.

Malik Reneau went for 16 points, 10 rebounds, four assists and three steals in the win over the Tar Heels. He also led all players with 26 points in the win over the Wolfpack.

But the real development was the injury that occurred during Miami's win over North Carolina.

Superstar freshman Caleb Wilson suffered a fractured left hand, his timetable for a return to the Tar Heels uncertain.

Even without Wilson and Henri Veesaar, the Heels had no problem taking care of business against a hapless Pitt team on Saturday. But how will they fare if Wilson misses the rest of the regular season, considering they have road games against NC State, Syracuse and Duke and home games against Louisville, Virginia Tech and Clemson?

Hard to imagine a scenario where they fall all the way into bubble trouble, but could they slip to the point where home wins over North Carolina—which Miami, SMU and California are already holding as their best wins of the season—don't look anywhere near as impressive?

Stay tuned on that front.

Big 12 Summary

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8 Teams in the Projected Field: 3. Arizona, 5. Houston, 6. Iowa State, 8. Kansas, 12. Texas Tech, 26. BYU, 34. UCF, 41. TCU

Also Considered: West Virginia, Oklahoma State

Biggest Development: Arizona goes from 23-0 to 23-2; TCU vaults back into the conversation

Arizona had been our no-brainer projected No. 1 overall seed for the past month. Even after the loss at Kansas on Monday night, they had built up enough of a cushion that they remained ahead of Michigan for the top spot.

But following the home loss to Texas Tech on Saturday night, not only are the Wildcats no longer No. 1 overall, but it is officially unclear whether they will be able to hang onto a spot on the top line.

They do have a road win over Connecticut in their back pocket, creating a bit of separation between themselves and the current No. 4 overall seed. But that's not some magic elixir that will keep them ahead of the Huskies for good, especially if it gets close and the committee starts talking about the fact that UConn was without both Tarris Reed Jr. and Braylon Mullins for that four-point loss.

Arizona remains a No. 1 seed for now, but a loss at Houston this coming Saturday—or a home loss to BYU on Wednesday—could change that in a hurry.

At the other end of the Big 12's bid spectrum, let's welcome TCU back to the conversation, after the Horned Frogs stunned Iowa State and scored a road win over Oklahoma State in the past seven days.

Their stockpile of bad losses hasn't gone anywhere, but they add those two wins to a previous sweep of Baylor and neutral-site victories over Florida and Wisconsin—both of which just keep looking more impressive by the day.

If they can win the four remaining games that they should win, they'll be in business.

Big East Summary

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Alex Karaban

3 Teams in the Projected Field: 4. Connecticut, 17. St. John's, 27. Villanova

Also Considered: Seton Hall

Biggest Development: The big three holds serve

Oh, there was plenty of drama.

On Tuesday, Villanova had its hands full with Marquette for the second time this season. But despite trailing by nine with six minutes remaining, the Wildcats scraped out a win behind some late heroics by Tyler Perkins and Acaden Lewis. Villanova proceeded to win at Creighton, improving to 20-5 overall and pretty much punching its ticket to the dance.

Speaking of punching, a few were thrown in the St. John's-Providence game on Saturday afternoon, resulting in seven ejections. But that was evidently the spark the Johnnies needed, as they were trailing by one when the fracas ensued, but they roared back for a 10-point road win. Like Villanova, St. John's is now 20-5 and a virtual lock.

But this league's Big Kahuna got tested twice this past week, not exactly bouncing back with a vengeance from its recent loss to the Red Storm.

Connecticut eventually pulled away from Butler, but that was a two-point game with less than seven minutes remaining at Hinkle Fieldhouse.

The bigger surprise was that the Huskies never really pulled away from Georgetown on Saturday, even though the game was played in Storrs. It felt like they led by two or three possessions for the entirety of a game that they ought to have won by about 20. Georgetown even had a shot to tie the game in the closing seconds, but couldn't deliver.

Welcome to "Survive and Advance" season, though. Can't argue with a collective 5-0 record, even if it did require some blood, sweat and tears.

Big Ten Summary

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John Blackwell

10 Teams in the Projected Field: 1. Michigan, 7. Purdue, 9. Illinois, 10. Nebraska, 16. Michigan State, 24. Wisconsin, 32. Iowa, 36. USC, 37. Indiana, 42. UCLA

Also Considered: Ohio State

Biggest Development: On Wisconsin (and uh oh, Iowa)

Through the first two months of this campaign, Wisconsin was a 9-5 team that lost every game it played against a KenPom top 60 foe.

Over the past six weeks, though, the Badgers have been a borderline top 10 team—and maybe the most insatiable offense—in the entire country.

The first part of that is why they were on the bubble heading into the week. But after a road win over Illinois and a home win over Michigan State, the Badgers sure have gained some ground in a hurry.

Both Nick Boyd and John Blackwell were awesome, combining for 102 points between the two games, as Wisconsin poured in triple after triple. As a result, the Badgers catapult from a No. 10 seed up to a projected No. 6 seed and are probably two more wins (against a forgiving schedule) away from becoming a lock to dance.

However, as a reminder of how quickly things can go sideways for a near-lock, Iowa lost at Maryland on Wednesday before getting stomped at home by Purdue on Saturday.

The Hawkeyes remain in the projected field with some room to spare—didn't hurt that seemingly every team in the Nos. 8-11 projected seed range lost on Saturday, making it difficult for the Hawkeyes to lose any ground—but yikes.

They are now winless in five tries against definite tournament teams—Purdue twice, Illinois, Iowa State and Michigan State—they have two less-than-great losses at Minnesota and Maryland and they have four really difficult games still to come: vs. Nebraska, at Wisconsin, vs. Michigan, at Nebraska.

There's also a home game against Ohio State and a road game against Penn State in the middle of that gauntlet. But if they beat the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions while losing the other four to finish the regular season at 20-11 with no great wins, this could be a photo finish.

SEC Summary

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Keyshawn Hall

10 Teams in the Projected Field: 11. Florida, 15. Vanderbilt, 18. Arkansas, 19. Tennessee, 20. Alabama, 25. Kentucky, 35. Auburn, 38. Texas A&M, 39. Texas, 46. Georgia

Also Considered: Missouri

Biggest Development: Bubble filling up (in a bad way)

Heading into the week, the SEC had six teams firmly in the field, five teams in the Nos. 8-11 seed range and five teams not worth considering for an at-large bid.

Well, there was some carnage in that middle tier, with Auburn, Georgia and Texas A&M going a combined 0-6.

There were no terrible losses in the bunch. In fact, A&M losing at home to Missouri and UGA losing at Oklahoma were the only ones that weren't Quad 1A outcomes.

For Auburn, though, those losses to Vanderbilt and Arkansas were its 10th and 11th of the season, which is beginning to become a real problem. The Tigers do have some great wins, including that true road win over Florida. And the fact that they played maybe the toughest schedule in the country gets them a little more grace as far as sheer volume of losses is concerned. However, they need to go at least 3-3 down the stretch, and they've got three coin flips on deck.

For both Texas A&M and Georgia, the strength of schedule is the furthest thing from their saving grace. Each team's best nonconference win was arguably a blowout of a sub-.500 Florida State squad. And now after starting out strong in SEC play, they've fallen to a combined 12-12—the Aggies 7-5; the Dawgs 5-7.

Both are projected to go 3-3 down the stretch to enter the SEC tournament at 20-11 overall, but it might not be enough for either one. (Especially Georgia, which is still searching for its first Quad 1A win.)

Mid-Majors Summary

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Santa Clara's Elijah Mahi

8 Teams in the Projected Field: 14. Gonzaga, 23. Saint Louis, 28. Utah State, 43. Saint Mary's, 44. San Diego State, 45. New Mexico, 47. South Florida, 48. Belmont

Also Considered: Santa Clara, VCU

Biggest Development: Santa Clara whiffs on major opportunity

All of Santa Clara's metrics say "NCAA tournament team!" Only BPI rates the Broncos as anything less than a top 50 team, and only barely. Most of the metrics put them in the top 40, including Wins Above Bubble. And last year, every team that finished top 40 in WAB also earned a top 40 overall seed in the dance.

However, with a terrible Quad 4 loss to Loyola-Chicago and a home win over Saint Mary's as the only victory over a team even remotely in the conversation for an at-large bid, Santa Clara's resume does feel a bit fraudulent.

There definitely is value in going 5-1 against Quad 2 and 10-0 against Quad 3, but you need a statement win at some point.

Hosting Gonzaga on Saturday night was their big chance at getting that resume-solidifying victory, and the Broncos did lead for a good chunk of the first 30 minutes. In a hurry midway through the second half, though, a 60-55 lead turned into a 73-66 deficit, and the Zags kept Santa Clara at bay from there.

Again, the metrics are solid. However, if the field was constructed just by the metrics, there wouldn't be a selection committee. And we all know the committee has found reasons over the years to leave Saint Mary's out when it also had solid metrics, but limited noteworthy wins.

Speaking of the Gaels, though, Santa Clara will play at Saint Mary's on Feb. 25 in what just might be a "winner dances, loser goes to the NIT" sort of battle.

In theory, they'll square off for a third time in the semifinals of the WCC tournament—or, in theory, Saint Mary's could win its season finale at Gonzaga. But that game next Wednesday looms all sorts of large as maybe the biggest bubble battle remaining in the entire country.

Other 21 Leagues Summary

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Javion Guy-King

21 Teams in the Projected Field: 33. Miami-Ohio, 49. Liberty, 50. Yale, 51. Stephen F. Austin, 52. UNC-Wilmington, 53. High Point, 54. Hawaii, 55. Cal Baptist, 56. Austin Peay, 57. North Dakota State, 58. Portland State, 59. Navy, 60. East Tennessee State, 61. Merrimack, 62. Appalachian State, 63. Wright State, 64. Tennessee Martin, 65. Long Island, 66. Bethune Cookman, 67. Howard, 68. NJIT

Also Considered: N/A

Biggest Development: Lengthy winning streaks continue

The biggest winning streak is, of course, the one you already know about. Miami-Ohio improved to 25-0 with its 16-point win over Ohio on Friday night. There has been a lot of debate lately over whether the RedHawks deserve to be in the at-large conversation, but most seem to agree that if they get to 31-0 before losing in the MAC tournament, they'll get in.

But Miami-Ohio isn't the only team in this tier that hasn't suffered the agony of defeat recently.

Liberty pushed its winning streak to 16 games with road victories over New Mexico State and UTEP. The Flames are one of just three teams still making a run at an undefeated conference season, along with Miami-Ohio in the MAC and Saint Louis in the A-10. Even if they do go 20-0 in Conference-USA play, though, it is almost certainly still Auto Bid or Bust for the Flames, who took three losses in nonconference play.

Stephen F. Austin picked up its 12th consecutive win on Monday night against Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. The Lumberjacks have now won 19 of 20, the lone loss a tight one at McNeese on Jan. 5. Could be a dangerous No. 12 seed if they keep it up.

Two other double-digit winning streaks belong to Winthrop (11) and Central Arkansas (10). Incredibly, though, neither the Eagles nor the Bears are actually leading their conference, with Winthrop half a game behind High Point in the Big South while Central Arkansas sits one game behind Austin Peay in the Atlantic Sun. In each case, there will be a head-to-head showdown in the next two weeks to potentially determine who gets the No. 1 seed in each conference tournament.