Latest 2026 Men's NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections
Selection Sunday for the 2026 men's NCAA tournament is barely a month away, and it's looking like Arizona, Michigan, Duke and Connecticut will be the No. 1 seeds for the dance.
There's still plenty of time left for that to change, though, which means there is definitely still time for bubble teams to play their way into (or out of) the picture.
Oklahoma State and Santa Clara seized that opportunity in the past week while the likes of Virginia Tech and New Mexico whiffed on their chances.
What will the next seven days bring before our next bracket projection?
In our latest forecast of the 2026 NCAA tournament field, projected auto bids from each of the 31 conferences are based on conference record. In cases where there is a tie atop the league standings, the tied team with the best average rank among the six team sheet metrics—KPI, SOR, WAB, BPI, KenPom and Torvik—gets the nod.
With that out of the way, let's start with the full bracket before some commentary on the current state of the bubble and the top seed line. Following that, we have a full conference-by-conference rundown, highlighting some of the biggest changes from one week ago.
The Projected Bracket
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East Region (Washington, D.C.)
Greenville, SC
No. 1 Duke vs. No. 16 Merrimack
No. 8 UCF vs. No. 9 Auburn
Portland, OR
No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 13 Stephen F. Austin
No. 5 St. John's vs. No. 12 Liberty
Greenville, SC
No. 3 Iowa State vs. No. 14 Cal Baptist
No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 11 UCLA
St. Louis, MO
No. 2 Illinois vs. No. 15 Wright State
No. 7 Clemson vs. No. 10 Saint Mary's
Midwest Region (Chicago)
Buffalo, NY
No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 16 NJIT / Morgan State
No. 8 NC State vs. No. 9 Miami-Ohio
Tampa, FL
No. 4 Virginia vs. No. 13 High Point
No. 5 Vanderbilt vs. No. 12 Tulsa
Tampa, FL
No. 3 Florida vs. No. 14 Austin Peay
No. 6 Saint Louis vs. No. 11 Missouri / Miami-Florida
St. Louis, MO
No. 2 Kansas vs. No. 15 East Tennessee State
No. 7 Villanova vs. No. 10 Indiana
South Region (Houston)
Philadelphia, PA
No. 1 Connecticut vs. No. 16 Long Island / Bethune Cookman
No. 8 Iowa vs. No. 9 SMU
San Diego, CA
No. 4 North Carolina vs. No. 13 Hawaii
No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 12 Belmont
Buffalo, NY
No. 3 Purdue vs. No. 14 North Dakota State
No. 6 Arkansas vs. No. 11 Santa Clara / Oklahoma State
Oklahoma City, OK
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 15 Portland State
No. 7 Utah State vs. No. 10 Wisconsin
West Region (San Jose)
San Diego, CA
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 16 Tennessee Martin
No. 8 Texas A&M vs. No. 9 USC
Portland, OR
No. 4 Gonzaga vs. No. 13 UNC Wilmington
No. 5 Kentucky vs. No. 12 Yale
Philadelphia, PA
No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 14 Troy
No. 6 Louisville vs. No. 11 Texas
Oklahoma City, OK
No. 2 Nebraska vs. No. 15 Navy
No. 7 BYU vs. No. 10 Georgia
Ranking the No. 1 Seeds
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1. Arizona Wildcats (23-1, NET: 2, RES: 1.7, QUAL: 2.3)
2. Michigan Wolverines (22-1, NET: 1, RES: 1.3, QUAL: 1.3)
3. Duke Blue Devils (21-2, NET: 3, RES: 3.3, QUAL: 3.3)
4. Connecticut Huskies (22-2, NET: 8, RES: 3.7, QUAL: 8.3)
5. Illinois Fighting Illini (20-4, NET: 4, RES: 8.0, QUAL: 5.3)
6. Houston Cougars (21-2, NET: 6, RES: 5.3, QUAL: 4.0)
Losses suffered by teams up in this tier had been few and far between up until this past weekend, when Connecticut (at St. John's), Duke (at North Carolina) and Illinois (at Michigan State) all suffered (Quad 1A) losses in the span of about 24 hours. And then Arizona's undefeated season came to an end Monday night against Darryn Peterson-less Kansas.
Despite those major results, not much changed here aside from Michigan supplanting Duke at No. 2 overall by holding serve against Penn State and Ohio State.
The Blue Devils still have a 10-2 record against Quad 1, while the only other teams in the country with at least eight such victories are the two teams seeded directly ahead of them. But they sure did collapse down the stretch against the Tar Heels, scoring just nine points in the final 11 minutes and 52 seconds.
Connecticut also remains in great shape despite the loss to the Johnnies. The Huskies only have half as many Quad 1 wins as Duke, but that's mostly because the Big East isn't supplying them with many opportunities. And they did load up on great wins early in the season, including what could be a critical-for-head-to-head-seeding victory over Illinois. The loss snapped an 18-game winning streak, but another lengthy run could be coming.
And though some bracketologists have vaulted Houston ahead of Illinois following the one-two punch of the Cougars winning at BYU while the Illini lost at Michigan State, that feels a bit premature. Illinois entered Monday as the only team in the country with at least five Quad 1A wins, while that was Houston's first such victory of the season.
Let's give it another two weeks, though, to see how Houston fares during that upcoming gauntlet of at Iowa State, vs. Arizona, at Kansas in the span of eight days. If the Cougars are still a two-loss team after that, they just might be the projected No. 1 overall seed.
10 Words on Each of the 10 'Bubbliest' Teams
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Fifth-to-Last In: UCLA Bruins (17-7, NET: 38, RES: 47.7, QUAL: 36.0)—Next three games: at Michigan, at Michigan State, vs. Illinois.
Fourth-to-Last In: Oklahoma State Cowboys (16-7, NET: 66, RES: 41.0, QUAL: 67.3)—Pummeled at Arizona, but home win over BYU was huge.
Third-to-Last In: Santa Clara Broncos (21-5, NET: 41, RES: 41.0, QUAL: 42.0)—At long last, we're bucking the Broncos into the field.
Second-to-Last In: Miami Hurricanes (18-5, NET: 37, RES: 47.3, QUAL: 43.3)—No great wins; terrible nonconference SOS; but only five losses.
Last Team In: Missouri Tigers (16-7, NET: 62, RES: 48.3, QUAL: 48.3)—Brutal remaining schedule will force Mizzou to prove it belongs.
***Cut Line***
First Team Out: Virginia Tech Hokies (16-8, NET: 55, RES: 48.7, QUAL: 64.0)—Resume metrics still solid, but will need more road wins.
Second Team Out: New Mexico Lobos (18-6, NET: 45, RES: 52.7, QUAL: 49.7)—Got swept at home this week by USU and Boise.
Third Team Out: California Golden Bears (17-7, NET: 60, RES: 47.0, QUAL: 72.0)—Plummeted from 54th to 71st on KenPom this past week.
Fourth Team Out: San Diego State Aztecs (17-6, NET: 42, RES: 47.7, QUAL: 43.3)—Win the four remaining home games and Aztecs might dance.
Fifth Team Out: VCU Rams (18-6, NET: 49, RES: 48.3, QUAL: 49.7)—Seven consecutive wins has VCU back in the bubble conversation.
ACC Summary
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8 Teams in the Projected Field: 3. Duke, 13. Virginia, 15. North Carolina, 22. Louisville, 26. Clemson, 31. NC State, 35. SMU, 45. Miami
Also Considered: Virginia Tech, California
Biggest Development: North Carolina wins a Tobacco Road classic
For the first 39 minutes, 59 seconds and a fraction of one more, North Carolina never led in Saturday night's showdown with the Duke Blue Devils.
But while Duke missed three consecutive layups down the stretch, North Carolina drained three straight triples, punctuated by Seth Trimble's almost buzzer-beating winner. They had to re-do their court storm after officials determined there should be 0.4 seconds left on the clock, but Duke was unable to get up a shot as North Carolina added yet another marquee win to its resume.
It was only three weeks ago we were discussing the somewhat-bubbly state of the Tar Heels after their back-to-back losses to Stanford and Cal, but they have bounced back with a vengeance.
They now have this home win over Duke to go along with previous road wins over Virginia and Kentucky and a home win over Kansas. Nice little stockpile of Quad 1A victories there for what now looks like a solid No. 4 seed.
Elsewhere in the ACC, Miami struggled with Boston College, Virginia Tech lost to NC State and Cal got pummeled by Clemson, so it wasn't a great week for this league's bubble.
Both Miami and Virginia Tech have almost too many big opportunities remaining to prove whether they belong in the field, but Cal doesn't have a sure-fire Quad 1 game left on its schedule. The Golden Bears might need to go 6-1 down the stretch to secure their spot in the field.
Big 12 Summary
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8 Teams in the Projected Field: 1. Arizona, 6. Houston, 8. Kansas, 9. Iowa State, 16. Texas Tech, 25. BYU, 30. UCF, 43. Oklahoma State
Also Considered: Baylor, West Virginia
Biggest Development: BYU's skid extends to four games
Remember when BYU was 16-1 and on the brink of the No. 1 seed conversation?
Well, things haven't been going so well since then for the Cougars, losing four in a row and five of their last six in the process of dropping out of the protected seed conversation.
AJ Dybantsa has done his part to end the skid, going for 36 points at Oklahoma State and scoring 28 of BYU's 66 points against Houston on Saturday night. He also had four assists in each game and scored those 64 points on an efficient 34 shots. Hard to argue with that.
But poor defense continues to be this team's undoing, allowing 1.27 points per possession against the Cowboys and 1.31 against the other Cougars.
The silver lining is that none of the losses was a resume crusher and they are still quite comfortably in the projected field. However, BYU is now winless in five tries against Quad 1A, and it has been more than two months since the Cougars last picked up a Quad 1 victory.
They should win both games this week against Baylor and Colorado before another pair of huge tests: at Arizona on Feb. 18, vs. Iowa State on Feb. 21. Should they whiff on both of those marquee opportunities, they could be looking at a No. 8 seed.
On the flip side of Saturday's game, though, Houston's road win—coupled with losses by Duke, UConn and Iowa State in the previous 24 hours—has brought Kingston Flemings and Co. into the No. 1 seed conversation. These Cougars also face Arizona and Iowa State in mid-February and would surely ascend to the top line if they can extend this four-game winning streak to eight.
Big East Summary
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3 Teams in the Projected Field: 4. Connecticut, 18. St. John's, 27. Villanova
Also Considered: N/A
Biggest Development: St. John's Takes Down UConn
Unless you're a big Ivy League junkie, Friday nights historically haven't been when the biggest games of the college basketball season take place. But one week after a big T.G.I.F. battle between Michigan and Michigan State, it was time for the biggest game of the entire Big East slate: Connecticut at St. John's.
It was one heck of a game, featuring both the best of Silas Demary Jr. (18 points, seven rebounds, five assists) and the worst of Silas Demary Jr. (nine turnovers, 3-for-6 on free throws), but mostly it was too much Zuby Ejiofor in a St. John's victory.
The Red Storm have now won nine consecutive games dating back to early January, gradually blossoming from a "wrong side of the bubble" team to a mortal lock to dance.
They do still have road games against UConn and Seton Hall, as well as a home game against Villanova. But even if they were to lose all three, taking care of business in the other remaining games against Providence, Marquette, Creighton and Georgetown would be plenty to get them across the finish line.
Speaking of Seton Hall, though, the Pirates are probably toast after their road losses to Villanova and Creighton in the past seven days. We already didn't have them among our first five out, and they are more like 15th or 20th out at this point.
That means, barring a bid thief in the Big East tournament—paging 2021 Georgetown—this is all but certain to be exactly a three-bid league.
Big Ten Summary
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10 Teams in the Projected Field: 2. Michigan, 5. Illinois, 7. Nebraska, 10. Purdue, 12. Michigan State, 29. Iowa, 36. USC, 37. Indiana, 38. Wisconsin, 42. UCLA
Also Considered: Ohio State
Biggest Development: Michigan State's resume gets interesting, but doesn't really change
Prior to this past week, Michigan State had a pretty cut and dry, No. 3 seed type of resume. The Spartans' only losses were Quad 1A games against Michigan, Duke and Nebraska, but they were still searching for one of those upper-echelon victories needed to stake their claim as one of the 10 best teams in the country.
On Saturday night, they got that win, outlasting Illinois in overtime. Jeremy Fears Jr. went for 26 points, 15 assists and yet another tripping controversy while the Illini's freshman phenom Keaton Wagler had a rare off night, shooting just 2-for-16 from the field.
That win might have vaulted Michigan State into the No. 2 seed mix...if it hadn't come on the heels of a loss at Minnesota that temporarily bumped the Spartans down to around No. 15 overall. They almost battled all the way back from a 16-point deficit in the final four minutes, but they simply ran out of time.
All told, acquiring both their worst loss and best win of the season changed basically nothing for MSU. The Spartans were No. 11 overall one week ago and now they are at No. 12. But it sure was an interesting week for them.
Also interesting down around the Big Ten bubble, Indiana lost at USC before getting a controversial home win over Wisconsin. The Trojans also won at Wisconsin a couple weeks ago, so that pecking order is now relatively clear with USC at the top, followed by Indiana and Wisconsin. And they just so happen to land consecutively at 36, 37 and 38 this week.
Throw in UCLA at 42 and the Big Ten represents four of the last 11 at-large spots at the moment. Can they maintain it, though? UCLA and Wisconsin each have four games left against KenPom Top 15 foes, while neither Indiana nor USC exactly has a cakewalk to the finish line.
SEC Summary
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11 Teams in the Projected Field: 11. Florida, 17. Vanderbilt, 19. Alabama, 20. Kentucky, 21. Tennessee, 24. Arkansas, 32. Texas A&M, 33. Auburn, 40. Georgia, 41. Texas, 46. Missouri
Also Considered: N/A
Biggest Development: Florida surges to the head of the class
After Texas A&M lost its defense-optional barn-burner at Alabama on Wednesday, it set up a Saturday showdown between the Aggies and the reigning national champions for first place in the SEC.
And Florida put Texas A&M in a rear naked choke pretty much from the opening tip, holding Texas A&M to two points in the first 11 minutes and leading by as many as 28 in that road romp of the Aggies.
Florida has now won eight of its last nine and 12 out of 14 since its 5-4 limp through the first six weeks of the campaign. This is still one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the entire country, but their frontcourt is so good that it almost doesn't matter.
Meanwhile, Vanderbilt suffered a brutal home loss to .500 Oklahoma, turning what was a tough call in the race for "top seed among SEC teams" into an absolute slam dunk in favor of the Gators.
Even so, this season has definitely been a far cry from last season. Instead of six teams among the top 13 overall seeds, we may well be headed for a tournament in which Florida is the only SEC team in the top 16 overall.
It does still seem likely to be a 10-bid league, though, as bubbly Georgia (at LSU) and Texas (vs. South Carolina, vs. Ole Miss) both took care of their business this week, while Missouri keeps hanging around the cut line.
We shall see, though. The nine-loss Longhorns certainly don't have a ton of wiggle room, but two more wins over Missouri and LSU in the next seven days would make them almost impossible to deny.
Mid-Majors Summary
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7 Teams in the Projected Field: 14. Gonzaga, 23. Saint Louis, 28. Utah State, 39. Saint Mary's, 44. Santa Clara, 47. Belmont, 48. Tulsa
Also Considered: New Mexico, San Diego State, VCU, George Mason, Boise State
Biggest Development: Gonzaga Loses to *Checks Notes* Portland???
Just last season, Gonzaga was swept by Saint Mary's, lost at home to Santa Clara and lost on the road against Oregon State. But with the exception of maybe the road game against the Gaels, you expect the Zags to win every league game they play.
You definitely don't expect them to lose to Portland, who hasn't posted a winning record in WCC play since 2009-10.
Nevertheless, the Pilots pulled off the unthinkable with their Wednesday night upset of Gonzaga. Freshman point guard Joel Foxwell went for 27 points and eight assists in yet another performance that won't be forgotten during transfer portal season.
Up until that result, the case for Gonzaga as a No. 2 seed was mostly rooted in the fact that its only loss was on a neutral court against projected No. 1 seed Michigan.
The Zags did beat Alabama on a neutral court, Kentucky in Nashville and UCLA in Seattle. But compared to some of their ridiculous nonconference schedule standards in the 2013-22 timeframe, this one was a B-plus, at best.
Adding a terrible loss to Portland to what was already a resume lacking for marquee victories was a real kick in the teeth. We had the Zags at No. 7 overall one week ago, but they are barely clinging to a No. 4 seed at this point—with road games still to come against Santa Clara and Saint Mary's, we might add.
If they win out, maybe a No. 2 seed could still be in the cards. If they instead lose both of those road games, though, slipping to something like a No. 7 seed isn't out of the question.
In brighter news for the WCC, welcome back to the projected field, Santa Clara. Major opportunity for the Broncos to solidify that spot a bit if they can score a home win over Gonzaga this Saturday.
Other 21 Leagues Summary
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21 Teams in the Projected Field: 34. Miami-Ohio, 49. Liberty, 50. Yale, 51. Stephen F. Austin, 52. High Point, 53. Hawaii, 54. UNC Wilmington, 55. Cal Baptist, 56. Troy, 57. North Dakota State, 58. Austin Peay, 59. East Tennessee State, 60. Portland State, 61. Wright State, 62. Navy, 63. Merrimack, 64. Tennessee Martin, 65. Long Island, 66. Bethune Cookman, 67. NJIT, 68. Morgan State
Also Considered: N/A
Biggest Development: Starting to see some at-large potential
Without fail, early-to-mid February is when we start to legitimately consider the at-large potential of the best teams from outside the "traditional" multi-bid leagues. Bracketologists around the country turn into that Drake meme, disgusted by the likes of Miami-Florida, Ohio State and Missouri while growing intrigued by teams in this tier who can actually win on a regular basis.
Undefeated Miami-Ohio remains the big one, of course. And with road wins over Buffalo and Marshall in the past seven days, the RedHawks have improved from about a 5.0 percent chance of getting to 31-0 to a 16.3 percent chance of running the table.
We now have the RedHawks up to No. 34 overall, suggesting that they perhaps could suffer a bad loss and still land on the good side of the bubble in the subsequent projection. However, we'll have to see how things/metrics are looking if and when that day comes.
One other team creeping into the at-large conversation is Liberty, winners of 14 games in a row.
If the Flames were to win out before losing to Sam Houston State in the C-USA championship game, it could be an interesting conversation. It certainly doesn't bode well for them that they suffered Quad 3 losses to Towson and Bradley, nor that they were absolutely destroyed in their lone Quad 1 opportunity of the year (85-45 loss at NC State). However, 30-4 with a couple of Quad 2 wins—most notably the game at Dayton—would merit a discussion.
That's it from this tier, though. Stephen F. Austin is 21-3, but only has one win over a top 140 team. Four-loss Yale has one Quad 2 win, while four-loss High Point has zero such victories. And everyone else has simply taken too many lumps.
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