Latest 2026 Men's NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections
Welcome to early February, where bracketology for the men's NCAA tournament starts to hit different.
We do these projections of the tournament field on a weekly basis starting in early November, but with less than six weeks remaining until Selection Sunday, time is officially running out for teams to change their fate.
Wrong-side-of-the-bubble teams like Ohio State and Seton Hall only have so many more chances to prove they belong in the field, while even projected No. 7 seeds like Kentucky and Clemson would just about need to lose out to miss the dance at this point.
At the same time, things most definitely can still change, as evidenced by Indiana skyrocketing directly from "nowhere close" to "in the field and not even projected for a play-in game" after a big week. Or Michigan suddenly putting together one heck of a case for the No. 1 overall seed after wins over Nebraska and Michigan State.
Who's next?
In our latest forecast of the 2026 NCAA tournament field, projected auto bids from each of the 31 conferences are based on conference record. In cases where there is a tie atop the league standings, the tied team with the best average rank among the six team sheet metrics—KPI, SOR, WAB, BPI, KenPom and Torvik—gets the nod.
With that out of the way, let's start with the full bracket before some commentary on the current state of the bubble and the top seed line. Following that, we have a full conference-by-conference rundown, highlighting some of the biggest changes from one week ago.
The Projected Bracket
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East Region (Washington, D.C.)
Greenville, SC
No. 1 Duke vs. No. 16 Tennessee Martin
No. 8 Auburn vs. No. 9 Wisconsin
Philadelphia, PA
No. 4 Purdue vs. No. 13 UNC Wilmington
No. 5 Tennessee vs. No. 12 Belmont
Greenville, SC
No. 3 Kansas vs. No. 14 Troy
No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 11 Indiana
St. Louis, MO
No. 2 Illinois vs. No. 15 East Tennessee State
No. 7 Clemson vs. No. 10 New Mexico
Midwest Region (Chicago)
Buffalo, NY
No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 16 Merrimack/Bethune Cookman
No. 8 Villanova vs. No. 9 NC State
San Diego, CA
No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 13 Utah Valley
No. 5 St. John's vs. No. 12 Yale
Tampa, FL
No. 3 Vanderbilt vs. No. 14 Wright State
No. 6 UCF vs. No. 11 UCLA/Miami (FL)
St. Louis, MO
No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 15 Austin Peay
No. 7 Kentucky vs. No. 10 Miami (OH)
South Region (Houston)
Philadelphia, PA
No. 1 Connecticut vs. No. 16 Vermont/North Carolina Central
No. 8 Iowa vs. No. 9 Georgia
Portland, OR
No. 4 Virginia vs. No. 13 Stephen F. Austin
No. 5 BYU vs. No. 12 Liberty
Oklahoma City, OK
No. 3 Houston vs. No. 14 UC Irvine
No. 6 Louisville vs. No. 11 California/Texas
Oklahoma City, OK
No. 2 Nebraska vs. No. 15 Portland State
No. 7 Arkansas vs. No. 10 Saint Mary's
West Region (San Jose)
San Diego, CA
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 16 Long Island
No. 8 SMU vs. No. 9 Utah State
Tampa, FL
No. 4 Florida vs. No. 13 High Point
No. 5 North Carolina vs. No. 12 Tulsa
Buffalo, NY
No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 14 North Dakota State
No. 6 Saint Louis vs. No. 11 Virginia Tech
Portland, OR
No. 2 Gonzaga vs. No. 15 Navy
No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 10 USC
Ranking the No. 1 Seeds
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1. Arizona Wildcats (22-0, NET: 2, RES: 2.0, QUAL: 2.0)
2. Duke Blue Devils (20-1, NET: 1, RES: 2.0, QUAL: 3.0)
3. Michigan Wolverines (20-1, NET: 3, RES: 2.7, QUAL: 1.7)
4. Connecticut Huskies (21-1, NET: 7, RES: 3.3, QUAL: 9.3)
5. Illinois Fighting Illini (19-3, NET: 6, RES: 5.7, QUAL: 7.0)
It was a massive week for Michigan, who—due to a lack of Quad 1A wins compared to the others in the conversation—had been the odd one out in a five-team race for the four No. 1 seeds.
To completely destroy that narrative, the Wolverines scored a home win over Nebraska on Tuesday, followed by a road win over Michigan State on Friday to now have an indisputable claim to a spot on the top line.
Neither victory was anywhere near as emphatic as their 30-point and 40-point blowouts that became commonplace back in November and December. In fact, Nebraska led for the majority of that one, despite playing on the road without two key players in Rienk Mast and Braden Frager. And the Wolverines blew what had been an 18-point lead against the Spartans before righting the ship in the final seven minutes.
But so what? Michigan got so many style points during its 14-0 start to the season that it was already top three in all of the predictive metrics heading into the week and just needed a couple feathers in their cap, regardless of the final margin.
They sure got those wins.
The victory over the Cornhuskers immediately snoozed the debate about which Big Ten team most deserves to be a No. 1 seed, and the subsequent rivalry win at Michigan State almost pushed Michigan straight to No. 2 overall.
We're keeping Duke there for now, though, as the Blue Devils and Arizona are the only teams in the nation with at least five Quad 1A wins. Duke also has one more Quad 1 win than Michigan, and its loss (Texas Tech on a neutral) was way more forgivable than the Wolverines' (vs. Wisconsin).
But just like the Michigan/Nebraska debate, the Duke/Michigan debate figures to be settled on the court when they square off in Washington D.C. on Feb. 21.
10 Words on Each of the 10 'Bubbliest' Teams
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Fifth-to-Last In: Virginia Tech Hokies (16-7, NET: 55, RES: 44.3, QUAL: 64.7)—Five roadies left: NC State, Clemson, Miami, UNC, Virginia. Woof.
Fourth-to-Last In: Texas Longhorns (13-9, NET: 39, RES: 56.0, QUAL: 35.3)—Ugly record, but it's impossible to ignore the quality wins.
Third-to-Last In: UCLA Bruins (15-7, NET: 44, RES: 49.3, QUAL: 35.3)—Narrowly in, but brutal remaining schedule might knock them out.
Second-to-Last In: California Golden Bears (16-6, NET: 51, RES: 42.7, QUAL: 60.0)—One step forward (at Miami); one step backward (at FSU).
Last Team In: Miami Hurricanes (17-5, NET: 38, RES: 46.3, QUAL: 40.7)—Hanging by a thread after yet another bad home loss.
***Cut Line***
First Team Out: Santa Clara Broncos (19-5, NET: 43, RES: 48.0, QUAL: 43.3)—Only loss suffered since Christmas was the game at Gonzaga.
Second Team Out: Missouri Tigers (15-7, NET: 70, RES: 51.7, QUAL: 56.3)—Same spot as last week; 7-7 since beginning of December.
Third Team Out: San Diego State Aztecs (15-6, NET: 45, RES: 51.0, QUAL: 46.3)—Tough path to bid after blowing late lead at USU.
Fourth Team Out: Ohio State Buckeyes (14-7, NET: 40, RES: 52.7, QUAL: 39.7)—Teetering in the wrong direction again after loss at Wisconsin.
Fifth Team Out: George Mason Patriots (20-2, NET: 65, RES: 39.3, QUAL: 83.7)—Mounted furious comeback at St. Bonaventure to remain in conversation.
ACC Summary
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10 Teams in the Projected Field: 2. Duke, 15. Virginia, 19. North Carolina, 22. Louisville, 27. Clemson, 32. SMU, 35. NC State, 42. Virginia Tech, 45. California, 46. Miami
Also Considered: N/A
Biggest Development: Florida State delivers two more bad losses to the ACC bubble
Two weeks ago, Florida State was 7-11 overall, and all seven of those wins were home games against teams outside the NET top 160—AKA Quad 4 results.
The Seminoles did almost win at Florida early in the season. They also put up solid fights against Duke, SMU and Wake Forest. However, they always found a way to lose, and it didn't seem like we'd be talking about them for bracketology reasons at any point this season.
But now they've won three out of their last four, and those results just might be the reason those three teams fail to make the NCAA tournament.
The win at Miami two weeks ago bumped the Hurricanes down to the bubble. And this week, FSU swept their homestand against Cal and Stanford, handing both of those teams a bad, Quad 2 loss.
In both games, the 'Noles got on a roll in the second half of the first half, winning that 10-minute segment by a combined score of 44-18. From there, they kept the ACC's Bay Area schools at bay.
At least the Golden Bears rebounded for a solid road win over Miami to keep themselves in the conversation for a bid. They land just ahead of the Hurricanes along the cut line.
Stanford wasn't so lucky, losing both games of its Florida trip to extend the losing streak to four games. The Cardinal managed to beat North Carolina in their first game without Chisom Okpara, but they have been a mess since then, falling well out of the at-large picture. They'll need to sweep the home games against Clemson and Georgia Tech this week just to climb back into the "Also Considered" category.
Big 12 Summary
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7 Teams in the Projected Field: 1. Arizona, 8. Iowa State, 9. Houston, 11. Kansas, 14. Texas Tech, 17. BYU, 24. UCF
Also Considered: Oklahoma State
Biggest Development: UCF takes big step toward a lock
The marquee showdown of the week was AJ Dybantsa and BYU going up against Darryn Peterson and Kansas. But regardless of which way that one went, it was going to go down as a big win for one team and a "no real damage done" type of loss for the other.
The much more important result for bracketology purposes was UCF scoring a home win over Texas Tech.
Coupled with the victory over Arizona State earlier in the week, that win pushed the Knights to 17-4 overall and added a third quality win to a resume that already included a home win over Kansas and a road win over Texas A&M.
The predictive metrics keep on refusing to smell what the Knights are cooking. They entered that game at No. 45 in the KenPom rankings, and despite an eight-point win over what had been a projected No. 3 seed, they were still ranked 45th at the end of the day.
The resume metrics know better, though. UCF was already top 25 in each of KPI, SOR and WAB, and now that they have three Quad 1 wins with no losses outside of that group, it's getting almost impossible to envision a scenario in which the Knights miss the dance.
They have nine games left in the regular season, only two of which (at Houston, at BYU) are against teams projected to make the tournament. And as long as they go at least 2-7, they'll have a good chance at a rare at-large bid.
Big East Summary
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3 Teams in the Projected Field: 4. Connecticut, 20. St. John's, 30. Villanova
Also Considered: Seton Hall
Biggest Development: Farewell, fringe bubble teams
Seton Hall survived its must-win week at home, blowing out Xavier before mounting a second-half comeback to beat Marquette. It did nothing to improve the Pirates' resume, but it does keep them just on the outside looking in with a gigantic opportunity at Villanova looming on Wednesday.
But for the Big East's other two teams who were still on the fringe of the conversation seven days ago, we can probably start writing those obituaries, as both Butler and Creighton blew a golden opportunity and took a terrible loss.
For the Bulldogs, it was a 22-point loss at St. John's and a 13-point home loss to Georgetown. They do still have a great neutral-site victory over Virginia in their back pocket, but that's about it. And they now have nine total losses, four of them to teams not projected to dance. They probably need to win out to have any hope.
Similar story for 10-loss Creighton, which embarrassingly got hammered by Marquette on Tuesday before a home loss to Connecticut on Saturday.
The Bluejays have one solid win to their credit (at Villanova) and five losses to teams not projected to dance. They, too, very likely need to win out, which would mean back-to-back-to-back wins over Villanova (home), UConn (road) and St. John's (road) later this month. And, you know, good luck with that when you can't even stay within 20 points of Marquette.
Big Ten Summary
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10 Teams in the Projected Field: 3. Michigan, 5. Illinois, 6. Nebraska, 10. Michigan State, 13. Purdue, 31. Iowa, 33. Wisconsin, 39. USC, 41. Indiana, 44. UCLA
Also Considered: Ohio State, Washington
Biggest Development: Welcome back, Hoosiers
Want to get a quick sense of how weak the bubble is at the moment?
Look no further than Indiana.
Seven days ago, the Hoosiers were 13-7 overall, winless in six tries against Quad 1 and sitting at 1-1 against Quad 2—a home win over Washington; a road loss to Minnesota.
They were roughly 60th on average in the resume metrics, but the predictive metrics still believed, with both BPI and Torvik ranking the Hoosiers in the top 30. That mandated that we at least keep Indiana on the board as an "Also Considered" team, even though they weren't legitimately considered for a bid.
But after a five-point home win over a reeling Purdue team and a one-point, double-overtime road win over UCLA—in which Indiana led by 10 with 90 seconds remaining before collapsing in spectacular fashion—lo and behold, we can't possibly justify leaving the Hoosiers out at this point.
Now, that could change again in a big way in the next seven days. Indiana plays at bubbly USC on Tuesday, hosts bubbly Wisconsin on Saturday and hosts "0-12 vs. Quads 1 and 2" Oregon on Monday. Drop two of those three and they'll be right back in a world of hurt in advance of a brutal closing stretch on the schedule.
For now, though, that pair of Quad 1 wins has breathed life into what looked like a dead resume.
Anyone else out there want to follow a similar blueprint? Because there are definitely more spots in the field up for grabs.
SEC Summary
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10 Teams in the Projected Field: 12. Vanderbilt, 16. Florida, 18. Tennessee, 21. Alabama, 25. Kentucky, 26. Arkansas, 28. Texas A&M, 29. Auburn, 36. Georgia, 43. Texas
Also Considered: Missouri, LSU
Biggest Development: Georgia drops two at home, slips to the bubble
In a vacuum, losing at home to Tennessee or losing at home to Texas A&M isn't the end of the world. Those are both borderline Quad 1 games that wouldn't do any real damage to the resume of a team that already has an excellent win or two to its credit.
That's not the case for Georgia, though.
The Bulldogs have now dropped five of their last eight games, including a bad home loss to Ole Miss and a bit of an ugly 20-point loss at Texas two weekends ago.
The Dawgs do have a pair of Quad 1 wins at home over Arkansas and Auburn, but neither of those is a particularly "elite" victory. Adding to that collection this week would have been fantastic, but they instead acquired their fifth and sixth losses of the season and now have a classic bubble resume, sitting right around 40th in all of the metrics.
Georgia still has home games remaining against Florida and Alabama, as well as road games against Vanderbilt and Kentucky, any of which would immediately become their best win.
Should they whiff on all four of those opportunities, though, they probably need to win the other five left on their slate to salvage a bid. Thus, the game at LSU this coming weekend could be the X-factor that makes or breaks their season.
Mid-Majors Summary
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7 Teams in the Projected Field: 7. Gonzaga, 23. Saint Louis, 34. Utah State, 38. Saint Mary's, 40. New Mexico, 47. Tulsa, 48. Belmont
Also Considered: Santa Clara, San Diego State, George Mason, Nevada, VCU
Biggest Development: It's time for our annual Saint Mary's conversation
In more seasons than not over the past two decades, some variant of this question has been asked of bracketologists: Does Saint Mary's need a win over Gonzaga in order to make the NCAA tournament?
And in this, the final year of the WCC as we know it (before the Zags leave for the reanimated Pac-12), the question might be more difficult to answer than ever before.
The Gaels are 19-4 overall and somewhere in the 31-41 range in every metric on the team sheet. That's the good news.
The bad news is that after losing to Gonzaga on Saturday, the Gaels are also winless in three tries against Quad 1, and since the transition from RPI to NET for the 2019 NCAA tournament, we've yet to have an at-large team with zero Quad 1 wins.
Notably, they do have a Quad 2 win on a neutral court against NET No. 56 Virginia Tech that could become Quad 1 if the Hokies climb back into the top 50. There's also a good chance they'll run into current NET No. 43 Santa Clara in the WCC semifinals, so they could end up with two Quad 1 wins even if they wind up going 0-3 against Gonzaga.
But would those borderline Q1 wins over bubble teams actually do the trick? Or could Saint Mary's end up in the NIT at 28-6 overall?
The current state of the bubble bodes well for them, but that could change in a hurry if teams like California, Missouri, Ohio State and TCU start stacking up quality wins. And let's not forget that a five-loss Saint Mary's team was left out of the dance in both 2016 and 2018. Thus, our official stance is it would be a really good idea for the Gaels to win the rematch with Gonzaga at the end of the month—or just go ahead and seal the deal by winning the WCC tournament.
Other 21 Leagues Summary
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21 Teams in the Projected Field: 37. Miami (OH), 49. Liberty, 50. Yale, 51. Stephen F. Austin, 52. High Point, 53. Utah Valley, 54. UNC Wilmington, 55. UC Irvine, 56. North Dakota State, 57. Troy, 58. Wright State, 59. Austin Peay, 60. Portland State, 61. East Tennessee State, 62. Navy, 63. Tennessee Martin, 64. Long Island, 65. Merrimack, 66. Vermont, 67. Bethune Cookman, 68. North Carolina Central
Also Considered: Akron, McNeese
Biggest Development: And then there were three
The game of mid-major survivor soldiers on.
Both Portland State and Maryland Eastern Shore suffered their first conference loss in the past seven days, but three teams from this 21-league tier remain undefeated in league play.
Conference USA: Liberty Flames (10-0)
KenPom Chance Undefeated: 5.3 percent
In its lone game in the past week, Liberty went on the road and pummeled Middle Tennessee, which might be the third-best team in Conference USA. The Flames have also already played and won their road game against the league's second-best team, Sam Houston State. So, if a loss is coming, it's tough to say where it would happen.
They've had Kaden Metheny and Zach Cleveland together for the past three years, and that veteran duo just might be able to pull off some magic in March.
Mid-American: Miami-Ohio Redhawks (10-0)
KenPom Chance Undefeated: 9.1 percent
Let the record show that Miami-Ohio does still have a tricky nonconference game coming up at Marshall this weekend. So while their odds of running the MAC table are roughly 1-in-11, their odds of an undefeated season are more like 1-in-19.
Either way, 22-0 is an incredible feat, and one that was made possible by a ridiculous run in Saturday's win over Northern Illinois. After trailing 52-47 with 15 minutes left, Miami-Ohio went on a 38-9 tear to win in blowout fashion. Just a classic example of how hot this team can get as one of the best shooting teams in the nation.
There has been a lot of debate about whether the RedHawks deserve an at-large bid, if necessary, but here's hoping. As a bracketologist, I don't like their chances. But as a fan of the sport, I loathe that that's the case.
Summit League: North Dakota State Bison (9-0)
KenPom Chance Undefeated: 8.1 percent
Four of NDSU's nine Summit League wins have come either in overtime or by a one-possession margin, including Saturday night's OT victory at South Dakota. And with road games still to come against both South Dakota State and Saint Thomas, even 8.1 percent feels a bit generous.
They only have to win seven more to finish the fight, though. Miami-Ohio has eight more and Liberty has 10 league games left, so that alone gives NDSU a slight leg up in this race that frankly doesn't matter for bracketology purposes but is fun to track anyway.
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