Latest 2026 Men's NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections
With less than seven weeks remaining until Selection Sunday, every men's college basketball game is starting to feel a little more important for bracketology purposes.
It's not that these games carry more weight than the ones played in November and December. In fact, the selection committee has gone out of its way to ensure that's not the case, removing "last 12 games" from the team sheets years ago and preaching the importance of every game mattering.
But now that they're close to the final pieces of the puzzle, they just hit differently.
On Saturday alone, North Carolina winning at Virginia and Tennessee winning at Alabama felt massive for teams that were kind of slipping toward the bubble, while Seton Hall's loss to DePaul felt like three losses in one for a bubble team that was already teetering in the wrong direction.
In other words, welcome to late January. Should be a wildly entertaining sprint to the finish line, per usual.
In our latest forecast of the 2026 NCAA tournament field, projected auto bids from each of the 31 conferences are based on conference record. In cases where there is a tie atop the league standings, the tied team with the best average rank among the six team sheet metrics—KPI, SOR, WAB, BPI, KenPom and Torvik—gets the nod.
With that out of the way, let's start with the full bracket before some commentary on the current state of the bubble and the top seed line. Following that, we have a full conference-by-conference rundown, highlighting some of the biggest changes from one week ago.
The Projected Bracket
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East Region (Washington, D.C.)
Greenville, SC
No. 1 Duke vs. No. 16 Vermont / Long Island
No. 8 Georgia vs. No. 9 UCF
Tampa, FL
No. 4 Vanderbilt vs. No. 13 UNC-Wilmington
No. 5 St. John's vs. No. 12 Liberty
San Diego, CA
No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 14 North Dakota State
No. 6 Auburn vs. No. 11 New Mexico / Missouri
Buffalo, NY
No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 15 Wright State
No. 7 Clemson vs. No. 10 Utah State
Midwest Region (Chicago)
Oklahoma City, OK
No. 1 Nebraska vs. No. 16 Tennessee-Martin
No. 8 Villanova vs. No. 9 Texas A&M
Tampa, FL
No. 4 Kansas vs. No. 13 Stephen F. Austin
No. 5 Florida vs. No. 12 Belmont
St. Louis, MO
No. 3 Iowa State vs. No. 14 Winthrop
No. 6 Arkansas vs. No. 11 Virginia Tech
Portland, OR
No. 2 Gonzaga vs. No. 15 Navy
No. 7 SMU vs. No. 10 Wisconsin
South Region (Houston)
Philadelphia, PA
No. 1 Connecticut vs. No. 16 Bethune-Cookman / Maryland-Eastern Shore
No. 8 Iowa vs. No. 9 Miami-Ohio
Portland, OR
No. 4 BYU vs. No. 13 Hawaii
No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 12 Florida Atlantic
Oklahoma City, OK
No. 3 Houston vs. No. 14 Texas-Arlington
No. 6 Louisville vs. No. 11 UCLA / Texas
Buffalo, NY
No. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 15 Lipscomb
No. 7 Saint Louis vs. No. 10 Miami-Florida
West Region (San Jose)
San Diego, CA
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 16 Merrimack
No. 8 USC vs. No. 9 Saint Mary's
Philadelphia, PA
No. 4 Virginia vs. No. 13 Troy
No. 5 Tennessee vs. No. 12 Yale
Greenville, SC
No. 3 Purdue vs. No. 14 East Tennessee State
No. 6 North Carolina vs. No. 11 San Diego State
St. Louis, MO
No. 2 Illinois vs. No. 15 Portland State
No. 7 Kentucky vs. No. 10 NC State
Ranking the No. 1 Seeds
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1. Arizona Wildcats (21-0, NET: 1, RES: 2.3, QUAL: 1.7)
2. Nebraska Cornhuskers (20-0, NET: 5, RES: 3.7, QUAL: 14.3)
3. Duke Blue Devils (19-1, NET: 3, RES: 2.7, QUAL: 4.0)
4. Connecticut Huskies (19-1, NET: 8, RES: 2.7, QUAL: 8.3)
5. Michigan Wolverines (18-1, NET: 2, RES: 3.7, QUAL: 2.0)
With Michigan hosting Nebraska on Tuesday and playing at Michigan State on Friday, this is about to be a moot point. But let's talk about why Nebraska deserves to be seeded ahead of Michigan at this point in time—because most bracketologists don't seem to agree.
Nebraska is 4-0 against Quad 1A and 6-0 against Quad 1, compared to Michigan's marks of 1-0 and 5-0, respectively. Yes, Michigan's lone upper echelon win was a preposterously dominant one, throttling Gonzaga by 40 on a neutral court. But Nebraska won at Illinois and won a home game against Michigan State, both of whom are right on Gonzaga's heels on our overall seed list. (Gonzaga is No. 6; MSU and Illinois at Nos. 7 and 8.)
At the end of the night on Saturday, Nebraska was one of just four teams in the country with at least four Quad 1A wins. And if your inclination is to guess the other three were probably Arizona, Duke and Connecticut, smart thinking. You nailed it.
Moreover, while Michigan suffered a Quadrant 2 home loss to Wisconsin, Nebraska is still undefeated. Are we just pretending that doesn't matter because of Michigan's superior average scoring margin?
Again, the debate is about to be all for naught. Whoever wins on Tuesday will be the Big Ten's top projected seed. And if Michigan beats both the Cornhuskers and the Spartans this week, it is going to instantly have one heck of a case for the No. 1 overall seed.
But it's hard to believe how many people have 20-0 Nebraska projected for a No. 2 seed right now. Justice for the Cornhuskers! (Before they possibly lose three of their next four games against Michigan, Illinois and Purdue.)
10 Words on Each of the 10 'Bubbliest' Teams
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Fifth-to-Last In: Virginia Tech Hokies (15-6, NET: 51, RES: 40.7, QUAL: 61.3)—Eventually will need more than just the one marquee win.
Fourth-to-Last In: Texas Longhorns (12-8, NET: 40, RES: 57.7, QUAL: 38.0)—Convincing win over Georgia, but resume remains far from convincing.
Third-to-Last In: UCLA Bruins (14-6, NET: 42, RES: 44.7, QUAL: 38.3)—Stunned Purdue and catapulted right back into the at-large mix.
Second-to-Last In: New Mexico Lobos (16-4, NET: 43, RES: 41.3, QUAL: 49.0)—Held serve with home wins over Fresno State and Nevada.
Last Team In: Missouri Tigers (14-6, NET: 69, RES: 50.3, QUAL: 54.7)—Needed two buzzer beaters vs. Oklahoma to salvage this spot.
***Cut Line***
First Team Out: Ohio State Buckeyes (13-6, NET: 36, RES: 45.0, QUAL: 37.0)—Ho hum. Ohio State right on the bubble, per usual.
Second Team Out: California Golden Bears (15-5, NET: 54, RES: 42.3, QUAL: 66.0)—Rivalry win at Stanford brings Cal back within shouting distance.
Third Team Out: Santa Clara Broncos (17-5, NET: 45, RES: 50.3, QUAL: 47.0)—Don't look now, but WCC might be a three-bid league.
Fourth Team Out: Stanford Cardinal (14-6, NET: 72, RES: 44.3, QUAL: 81.7)—Four Quad 1 wins, but also suffered four bad losses.
Fifth Team Out: George Mason Patriots (18-2, NET: 68, RES: 42.7, QUAL: 84.7)—Losing at Rhode Island poked big hole in this resume.
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ACC Summary
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9 Teams in the Projected Field: 3. Duke, 16. Virginia, 21. North Carolina, 23. Louisville, 26. Clemson, 28. SMU, 38. NC State, 40. Miami, 41. Virginia Tech
Also Considered: Cal, Stanford
Biggest Development: Bounce-back week in the Triangle
Last week in this space, we bemoaned what had been a woeful stretch for North Carolina and NC State; the former going winless at Cal and Stanford, the latter suffering a terrible home loss to Georgia Tech.
They rebounded quite well, though, each picking up their most impressive win of the season during what was a combined 4-0 week.
UNC first pummeled Notre Dame by 22 on Wednesday, but the big one was the road win over Virginia on Saturday afternoon. The Heels trailed by as many as 16 points in the first half, but they seemingly could not miss after the intermission. That was especially true of Jarin Stevenson, who scored all 17 of his points in the final 13 minutes in the come-from-behind victory that spared us from needing to start seriously talking about North Carolina as a bubble team.
Coincidentally, it was a former Tar Heel who had a massive week for the Wolfpack. Ven-Allen Lubin went for 22 points in the road win over Clemson on Tuesday and then racked up 17 points and 12 rebounds in the win at Pittsburgh on Saturday.
NC State had fallen out of our projected field in last week's projection, but it is back on the right side of the bubble in advance of what ought to be another two-win week against Syracuse and Wake Forest.
Big 12 Summary
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7 Teams in the Projected Field: 1. Arizona, 9. Houston, 10. Iowa State, 12. Texas Tech, 13. BYU, 14. Kansas, 33. UCF
Also Considered: TCU, Oklahoma State, Baylor, West Virginia
Biggest Development: Two Big 12 freshman score 40+ (one in a losing effort)
Saturday was a historic day for freshmen. Duke's Cameron Boozer went for 32 points, nine rebounds, four assists and three steals, but he was an also-ran on a day when Illinois' Keaton Wagler, BYU's AJ Dybantsa and Houston's Kingston Flemings each went off for at least 42 points.
Dybantsa's 43-point masterpiece came in a victory over Utah in the Holy War, which was a closer game for longer than it probably should have been. He sure did put the game on ice with 13 points in the span of six possessions late in the second half.
Flemings wasn't quite so lucky. He scored 42 points and tallied six assists at Texas Tech, but it was the Red Raiders who poured in 55 first-half points en route to an improbable 90-86 win over one of the best defenses in the nation.
It was the first time a team had scored 90 points in regulation against Houston since a 91-85 loss to Memphis in 2018, but JT Toppin (31 points, 12 rebounds) couldn't be stopped while Donovan Atwell and Jaylen Petty (9-for-14 from three-point range) couldn't miss.
That was, of course, the bigger of the two games in question here. BYU's home win over Utah did nothing to change our opinion on either of those teams from the Beehive State, but that was yet another huge win for the Red Raiders, who now have five Quad 1 wins and no losses outside of Quad 1A. They are sitting pretty for a protected (top four) seed, albeit with road games still to come against Arizona, Iowa State and BYU.
Big East Summary
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3 Teams in the Projected Field: 4. Connecticut, 20. St. John's, 30. Villanova
Also Considered: Seton Hall, Creighton, Butler
Biggest Development: UConn keeps on winning; Seton Hall keeps on losing
The Connecticut Huskies are the clear cream of the crop in the Big East at 19-1 overall and 9-0 in league play, but they have been routinely pushed to the limit as of late.
Survive and advance, though, right? And they did just that in an overtime win over Villanova on Saturday. Hopefully Braylon Mullins is alright after taking a shot to the head early in the second half and not returning, but Solo Ball and Alex Karaban rose to the occasion in his absence.
It was another tough miss for Villanova, who also lost at home to St. John's the previous Saturday. The Wildcats have a handful of respectable wins away from home over Wisconsin, Butler, Seton Hall and Providence, but that would've been the real feather in the cap to push the Wildcats back into the mix for a No. 4 seed. Instead, they remain seemingly destined for an 8/9 first-round game.
At least Villanova is still in the projected field, though. Seton Hall, on the other hand, has cratered to the tune of four consecutive losses, including a bad one at DePaul on Saturday.
Props to the Blue Demons for winning four of their last six. They might mess around and win eight Big East games for the first time since 2006-07. But that is a dagger of a loss for a Seton Hall team that now has four Quad 2 losses and little more than a neutral victory over NC State to their credit. The Pirates were our Last Team In one week ago, but they are barely even on the radar at this point.
Big Ten Summary
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9 Teams in the Projected Field: 2. Nebraska, 5. Michigan, 7. Michigan State, 8. Illinois, 11. Purdue, 31. Iowa, 32. USC, 39. Wisconsin, 43. UCLA
Also Considered: Ohio State, Indiana
Biggest Development: Comeback Bruin
UCLA had been rapidly approaching "don't even need to consider them anymore" status as a bubble team, sitting at 12-6 with no great wins and losses to California, Ohio State and Wisconsin that left something to be desired.
Had they lost the home game against Purdue on Tuesday, it would have knocked the Bruins completely out of the conversation for a bid, at least for the time being.
Instead, UCLA pulled off a stunner behind a dynamite night from Donovan Dent. While Braden Smith finished with just 12 points and four assists for the Boilermakers, Dent went off for 23 and 13 with three blocks to boot. Dent delivered the dime to Tyler Bilodeau on the game-winning triple with less than 10 seconds remaining.
It was the signature win they desperately needed, and pairing it with a home victory over Northwestern on Saturday brought UCLA to a respectable enough 4-6 against the top two Quads.
Meanwhile, Purdue went from a one-loss team in the mix for a No. 1 seed to a three-loss team searching for answers.
After losing to UCLA sans Skyy Clark, the Boilermakers also fell at home to Illinois sans Kylan Boswell behind a 46-point special from Keaton Wagler. He made nine of the Illini's 18 three-pointers on the day, four of which came on consecutive possessions late in the second half, turning a four-point deficit into a four-point lead in a heartbeat. That win vaulted Illinois right ahead of Purdue.
SEC Summary
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11 Teams in the Projected Field: 15. Vanderbilt, 17. Florida, 18. Tennessee, 19. Alabama, 22. Arkansas, 24. Auburn, 27. Kentucky, 29. Georgia, 34. Texas A&M, 42. Texas, 45. Missouri
Also Considered: LSU
Biggest Development: Tennessee scores a much-needed victory over Alabama
Heading into the weekend, it was Charles Bediako this and Charles Bediako that. But after all that scuttlebutt over a former second-round draft pick, it was a future lottery pick who had the last laugh at Coleman Coliseum.
Tennessee's Nate Ament has been heating up in recent weeks, and he went off for a career-high 29 points with seven rebounds and three assists in a huge road win over the Crimson Tide.
The Volunteers' resume had kind of quietly become pretty questionable. The predictive metrics still loved them, and that win over Houston in the Players Era Festival was carrying a ton of water. But they were 35th or worse in each of KPI, SOR and WAB heading into Saturday and would have fallen to 12-7 overall if they had lost to Alabama.
They still would've been in the projected field, but possibly down to a No. 9 seed.
Instead, they picked up a marquee win and surge to just ahead of Alabama in the SEC's gaggle of single-digit seeds.
Meanwhile, down along the bubble, Texas pummeled Georgia on Saturday for a win the Longhorns absolutely had to have. They're still merely 4-8 against the top three Quads, but all four of those wins are of the Quad 1 variety. Pick up one more at Auburn on Wednesday and they'll be in even better shape for a bid.
Mid-Majors Summary (A10, AAC, MVC, MWC, WCC)
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8 Teams in the Projected Field: 6. Gonzaga, 25. Saint Louis, 35. Saint Mary's, 37. Utah State, 44. New Mexico, 46. San Diego State, 47. Belmont, 50. Florida Atlantic
Also Considered: Santa Clara, George Mason, VCU, Tulsa
Biggest Development: A tough week on the at-large front
Several of these teams took care of business, including Saint Louis going on the road and pummeling St. Bonaventure by a 35-point margin on Friday evening. Good time for a reminder that the Billikens would be 20-0 right now were it not for Stanford pulling off the miracle four-point possession at the buzzer from an intentionally missed free throw back on Black Friday.
But while Saint Louis buttressed its case for a single-digit seed, Utah State suffered a catastrophic home loss to UNLV on Tuesday, San Diego State took a tough-luck loss on a controversial late call at Grand Canyon on Wednesday and George Mason was handed an L in Rhode Island on Saturday.
Of the bunch, USU's loss did the most individual damage. That was almost a Quad 4 loss for a team that hasn't even played a game against—let alone scored a victory over—a team in the projected field. The Aggies looked like a possible No. 6 seed two weeks ago, but they have quickly fallen onto the bubble.
But it was George Mason's loss that most changed the overall projected field, with the Patriots falling out of the picture because of it.
Not necessarily for good, of course. It wasn't a resume-destroying loss and we're still talking about an 18-2 team that entered the weekend top 40 in all the resume metrics. Like Utah State, though, GMU doesn't have a win over the projected field, or even a win over a team close to the conversation. The Patriots probably need to go at least 9-2 the rest of the way to have any sort of realistic case for a bid.
Other 21 Leagues Summary
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21 Teams in the Projected Field: 36. Miami-Ohio, 48. Yale, 49. Liberty, 51. Stephen F. Austin, 52. Hawaii, 53. UNC-Wilmington, 54. Troy, 55. North Dakota State, 56. UT-Arlington, 57. Winthrop, 58. East Tennessee State, 59. Portland State, 60. Lipscomb, 61. Wright State, 62. Navy, 63. Tennessee-Martin, 64. Merrimack, 65. Long Island, 66. Vermont, 67. Bethune-Cookman, 68. Maryland Eastern Shore
Also Considered: McNeese, Akron
Biggest Development: Time to fire up the "Undefeated Watch"
There are 11 teams left in the country that are still undefeated in league play, six of whom—Arizona, Connecticut, Duke, Gonzaga, Nebraska and Saint Louis—are doing their thing in conferences already covered before this tier.
But that leaves five teams to highlight here.
Miami-Ohio RedHawks (20-0, 8-0 in Mid-American): The kings of this quintet, Miami-Ohio is still in pursuit of an undefeated regular season. Heavy is the head that wears the crown, though. The RedHawks have needed overtime to survive their last two games against Buffalo and Kent State. But that just means more minutes for Peter Suder to rack up buckets. The longer they keep this up, the more we'll need to grapple with whether they've done enough to get an at-large bid, if necessary.
Liberty Flames (17-3, 9-0 in Conference USA): Losing by 40 at NC State apparently lit a fire for these Flames, who have won 11 in a row since. They've already won the road game against the second-best team in this league (Sam Houston State), and they've got the road game against arguably the third-best team (MTSU) coming up on Thursday. Win that one and this quest for perfection becomes even more realistic.
Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks (8-13 overall, 4-0 in MEAC): They play at almost the slowest tempo in the country and have one of the least efficient offenses in the nation. But could they be the class of the MEAC? UMES has already beaten Howard by a dozen and won its road game against Norfolk State, which had not lost at home in league play since 2023.
North Dakota State Bison (18-5 overall, 8-0 in Summit): The only team in the past three years to go undefeated in league play was Oral Roberts out of the Summit League in 2022-23. But after a 28-point road win over ORU on Saturday, North Dakota State is halfway there. The Bison still have tough road games against St. Thomas and South Dakota State, but they also have a dynamic duo in Trevian Carson and Treyson Anderson to perhaps carry them to 16-0.
Portland State Vikings (13-5 overall, 7-0 in Big Sky): Of the bunch, Portland State is least likely to run the table, yet to face either Montana or Montana State. The Vikings will host both of them this week before making the return trip to Bozeman and Missoula at the end of February. Moreover, the Big Sky hasn't had a one-loss champ since 2013, nor an undefeated champ since Weber State in 2003.
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