Latest 2026 Men's NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections

Iowa State and Vanderbilt were sitting pretty as projected No. 1 seeds seven days ago with a combined record of 32-0, but each one dropped two games in the past week, plummeting down to the No. 3 and No. 4 seed lines, respectively.

Arizona, Nebraska and Miami-Ohio all managed to keep the undefeated dream going, though, the Wildcats and Cornhuskers now our top two overall seeds.

Down around the bubble, Kentucky was the big winner of the past week, albeit only after digging itself into a massive hole early in both of its wins over LSU and Tennessee.

In our latest forecast of the 2026 NCAA tournament field, projected auto bids from each of the 31 conferences are based on conference record. In cases where there is a tie atop the league standings, the tied team with the best average rank among the six team sheet metrics—KPI, SOR, WAB, BPI, KenPom and Torvik—gets the nod.

With that out of the way, let's start with the full bracket before some commentary on the current state of the bubble and the top seed line. Following that, we have a full conference-by-conference rundown, highlighting some of the biggest changes from one week ago.

The Projected Bracket

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Silas Demary Jr.

East Region (Washington, D.C.)

Greenville, SC
No. 1 Duke vs. No. 16 Bethune-Cookman/Maryland-Eastern Shore
No. 8 USC vs. No. 9 Auburn

Tampa, FL
No. 4 Florida vs. No. 13 UNC Wilmington
No. 5 St. John's vs. No. 12 Liberty

St. Louis, MO
No. 3 Iowa State vs. No. 14 Troy
No. 6 Louisville vs. No. 11 Missouri/Seton Hall

Buffalo, NY
No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 15 Tennessee-Martin
No. 7 Villanova vs. No. 10 Virginia Tech

Midwest Region (Chicago)

Oklahoma City, OK
No. 1 Nebraska vs. No. 16 Long Island
No. 8 UCF vs. No. 9 Miami-Florida

San Diego, CA
No. 4 Kansas vs. No. 13 Stephen F. Austin
No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 12 Utah Valley

Philadelphia, PA
No. 3 Virginia vs. No. 14 North Dakota State
No. 6 Arkansas vs. No. 11 Miami-Ohio

Oklahoma City, OK
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 15 East Tennessee State
No. 7 SMU vs. No. 10 Saint Mary's

South Region (Houston)

Philadelphia, PA
No. 1 Connecticut vs. No. 16 Saint Peter's/Vermont
No. 8 Kentucky vs. No. 9 Iowa

Greenville, SC
No. 4 Illinois vs. No. 13 Florida Atlantic
No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 12 Murray State

Portland, OR
No. 3 BYU vs. No. 14 Hawaii
No. 6 Saint Louis vs. No. 11 San Diego State

St. Louis, MO
No. 2 Purdue vs. No. 15 Portland State
No. 7 Georgia vs. No. 10 Stanford

West Region (San Jose)

San Diego, CA
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 16 Navy
No. 8 Utah State vs. No. 9 Wisconsin

Tampa, FL
No. 4 Vanderbilt vs. No. 13 High Point
No. 5 Clemson vs. No. 12 Yale

Buffalo, NY
No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 14 Wright State
No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 11 George Mason/New Mexico

Portland, OR
No. 2 Gonzaga vs. No. 15 Queens
No. 7 North Carolina vs. No. 10 Texas A&M

Ranking the No. 1 Seeds

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1. Arizona Wildcats (18-0, NET: 3, RES: 2.7, QUAL: 3.3)
2. Nebraska Cornhuskers (18-0, NET: 6, RES: 4.0, QUAL: 16.0)
3. Duke Blue Devils (17-1, NET: 2, RES: 2.7, QUAL: 5.0)
4. Connecticut Huskies (18-1, NET: 8, RES: 3.3, QUAL: 8.7)
5. Michigan Wolverines (16-1, NET: 1, RES: 4.3, QUAL: 1.3)
6. Purdue Boilermakers (17-1, NET: 5, RES: 4.0, QUAL: 5.0)
7. Houston Cougars (17-1, NET: 9, RES: 8.0, QUAL: 3.7)

Last week, we decided to put all four of the remaining unbeaten power conference teams on the top seed line, and I quote, "until they give us a reason to give them the boot."

Well, Iowa State and Vanderbilt sure did give us a reason to boot 'em, each picking up a pair of losses in the past seven days while plummeting completely out of the conversation for a spot in the top four.

Please don't go misinterpreting that as a proclamation that they can't possibly get back into the mix, but there's simply no case for either the Cyclones or the Commodores landing in the top seven overall at this point.

Turning our attention to the actual candidates for the top line, Arizona remains the clear-cut No. 1 overall seed, improving to 7-0 vs. Quad 1 with a win at UCF on Saturday. And though one could argue that both Duke and Connecticut deserve to land ahead of Nebraska, the undefeated Cornhuskers do have four Quad 1A wins and 10 total wins against the top two Quadrants. Let's not pretend they've feasted on cupcakes to get to 18-0, even though the predictive metrics have been hesitant to believe.

Speaking of the predictive metrics, most of them still have Michigan at No. 1 overall, but the Wolverines remain a No. 2 seed in our eyes, between the fact that they've only played one Quad 1A game and their loss (vs. Wisconsin) was far worse than any other loss suffered by a team in this top tier. Props on picking up back-to-back 10-point wins on that road trip to Washington and Oregon, though. That's no easy task.

Slightly behind Michigan at No. 5 overall are Purdue and Houston, both of whom have a huge game coming up on Saturday—the Boilermakers at home against Illinois, the Cougars on the road against Texas Tech. Either one could force itself more legitimately into the mix for the top line with a convincing victory.

10 Words on Each of the 10 'Bubbliest' Teams

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Fifth-to-Last In: Virginia Tech Hokies (14-5, NET: 54, RES: 40.7, QUAL: 62.0)—Every Hokies game seems to be decided at the buzzer.

Fourth-to-Last In: George Mason Patriots (18-1, NET: 64, RES: 39.3, QUAL: 81.7)—No great wins, but just look at that pristine record.

Third-to-Last In: New Mexico Lobos (14-4, NET: 40, RES: 44.0, QUAL: 48.3)—Blew a major opportunity at San Diego State on Saturday.

Second-to-Last In: Missouri Tigers (13-5, NET: 66, RES: 47.7, QUAL: 54.0)—Hanging on for dear life after the loss at LSU.

Last Team In: Seton Hall Pirates (14-4, NET: 47, RES: 39.0, QUAL: 52.7)—No longer has a win over team in projected field.

***Cut Line***

First Team Out: Ohio State Buckeyes (12-5 NET: 37, RES: 47.0, QUAL: 36.7)—Might be destined to spend entire season on the bubble.

Second Team Out: LSU Tigers (13-5, NET: 49, RES: 56.3, QUAL: 45.7)—Finally got a second win over a top 100 foe.

Third Team Out: Oklahoma State Cowboys (14-4, NET: 73, RES: 39.3, QUAL: 71.0)—May have saved season with three free throws against KSU.

Fourth Team Out: NC State Wolfpack (12-6, NET: 34, RES: 55.7, QUAL: 28.7)—Home loss to Georgia Tech was a real resume killer.

Fifth Team Out: Texas Longhorns (11-7, NET: 41, RES: 64.0, QUAL: 41.0)—Beating Vanderbilt reintroduced Texas to the conversation for a bid.

ACC Summary

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9 Teams in the Projected Field: 3. Duke, 10. Virginia, 19. Clemson, 21. Louisville, 27. SMU, 28. North Carolina, 36. Miami, 38, Stanford, 40. Virginia Tech

Also Considered: NC State, California

Biggest Development: Tar Heels Go West, Take a Tumble

Along with Clemson and Florida State, North Carolina was one of the three teams to vote against admitting California, Stanford and SMU to the ACC back in 2023.

Now we know why. After previously losing by 14 at SMU, the Tar Heels acquired two more losses on the road against their begrudged brethren, losing 95-90 at Stanford and 84-78 at Cal.

In both games, their perimeter defense was downright atrocious. The Golden Bears and Cardinal combined to shoot 30-for-54 from three-point range. Combine that with the Mustangs going 14-for-27 earlier this month and in UNC's three ACC losses, they've allowed 54.3 percent three-point shooting and 1.30 points per possession.

There is an inherent randomness to three-point percentage, but this doesn't feel like a sample-size outlier. The Heels have a dynamite three-man frontcourt of Caleb Wilson, Henri Veesaar and Jarin Stevenson, but Kyan Evans, Derek Dixon and Luka Bogavac might as well be sieves trying to hold water with their defense along the arc.

Can they figure out a solution, or are Virginia (Jan. 24), Louisville (Feb. 23) and Duke (Feb. 7 and March 7) just going to make a combined 100 triples against this team in the process of sending UNC freefalling to the bubble?

They're still looking good for a bid for now, as they've yet to suffer a loss outside of Quad 1. But Hubert Davis' seat is definitely heating up again.

Big 12 Summary

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7 Teams in the Projected Field: 1. Arizona, 7. Houston, 11. BYU, 12. Iowa State, 16. Kansas, 17. Texas Tech, 31. UCF

Also Considered: Oklahoma State, Baylor

Biggest Development: Cyclones Acquire First Loss(es)

After starting out 16-0 and climbing all the way to our No. 2 overall seed, things took a real turn for Iowa State this week.

Losing at Kansas wasn't a huge surprise, but trailing by as many as 26 points in the first half certainly was. The Cyclones did claw back a little bit in the first few minutes of the second half, but they never got the deficit back to single digits and ended up losing by 21—their worst margin of defeat since a 72-41 shellacking at the hands of Texas Tech in the 2022 Big 12 tournament.

Had they bounced back to beat Cincinnati on Saturday, though, we probably wouldn't be talking about the Cyclones here. They'd still be sitting pretty as a No. 2 seed.

But they lost that one, too, even with Milan Momcilovic going off for a career-high 34 points. They simply went through stretches in which they couldn't buy a bucket, allowing the Bearcats to go on a 14-0 run in the first half and enduring a 13-possession stretch in the second half without a made bucket.

Listen, the 23-point road win over Purdue hasn't gone anywhere, but the Cyclones did already have a bit of a questionable resume for a No. 1 seed, their next-best wins coming over Baylor, Iowa and St. John's—the latter of which does look better now that the Johnnies have caught fire, but that was a bubble team 10 days ago.

In the blink of an eye, Iowa State has gone from jostling with Arizona for the No. 1 overall seed to trying to ward off Kansas and Texas Tech for the fourth-best seed among Big 12 teams.

Big East Summary

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4 Teams in the Projected Field: 4. Connecticut, 20. St. John's, 26. Villanova, 45. Seton Hall

Also Considered: Creighton, Butler

Biggest Development: The Hall Hits a Wall

Seton Hall blossoming into a tournament-caliber team was maybe the biggest surprise in all of men's college basketball through the first seven weeks of the season.

The Pirates went 7-25 last year, lost all seven of their leading scorers and had to figure out how to cobble together a roster with what is generally regarded to be the worst NIL budget among the power five programs. And yet, there they were at 11-1 with wins over NC State, Kansas State and Providence, storming into the projected field and even cracking into last week's AP poll at No. 25.

But after giving Connecticut a run for its money on Tuesday night, the Pirates laid an egg at home against Butler on Saturday. They grabbed 21 offensive rebounds, but also could not stop committing fouls, allowing the Bulldogs to attempt 41 free throws en route to a Quad 2 loss that is far more likely to slip to Quad 3 than climb to Quad 1.

Meanwhile, NC State lost at home to Georgia Tech and is no longer in the projected field, making Seton Hall's best win look less impressive.

The Pirates play at St. John's on Tuesday, at Villanova in early February, at Connecticut on Feb. 28 and then wrap up the regular season at home against the Johnnies. Even if they win the other nine games left on the schedule while whiffing on all four of those chances, it might not be enough, as they could wind up without a single win over the tournament field.

Big Ten Summary

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8 Teams in the Projected Field: 2. Nebraska, 5. Michigan, 6. Purdue, 9. Michigan State, 13. Illinois, 30. USC, 33. Iowa, 34. Wisconsin

Also Considered: Ohio State

Biggest Development: Iowa Kicks Indiana While It's Down

After a week in which it suffered a disappointing loss at Minnesota and never led in a home loss to Illinois, it was a bounce-back week for Iowa.

The Hawkeyes didn't quite get the win at Purdue on Tuesday, but that was a fantastic back-and-forth battle that the Boilermakers survived. And Iowa carried some of that momentum/frustration into Assembly Hall on Saturday and put a whuppin' on Indiana.

Bennett Stirtz and Tavion Banks combined for 53 points while the Hoosiers managed just 57 as an entire team in yet another blowout loss.

The win immediately became Iowa's most impressive of the season, giving some legitimacy to a resume that was getting a lot of "where are the Quad 1 wins?" attention along the bubble.

For the Hoosiers, though, that 17-point loss comes on the heels of a 21-point loss at Michigan State—bad news for a team whose case for a tournament bid was largely rooted in its great predictive metrics. At this point, Indiana has six losses, no Quad 1 wins in five tries and just one Quad 2 win (vs. Washington).

These next two Tuesdays loom all sorts of large for Indiana, playing at Michigan this week before hosting Purdue next week. If the Hoosiers don't win either one, they're probably not dancing this year.

SEC Summary

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10 Teams in the Projected Field: 14. Florida, 15. Vanderbilt, 18. Alabama, 22. Arkansas, 23. Tennessee, 25. Georgia, 32. Kentucky, 35. Auburn, 39. Texas A&M, 44. Missouri

Also Considered: LSU, Texas

Biggest Development: Vanderbilt Drops Two; Kentucky Pulls Off Two Miracles

Much like Iowa State, it took less than a week for Vanderbilt to go from an undefeated projected No. 1 seed to a two-loss team that has fallen hopelessly out of that conversation.

No particular shame in either loss. At NET 41 Texas and vs. NET 15 Florida are both exactly on the border between Quad 1A and Quad 1B. The game against the Longhorns was a rare dreadful offensive performance, and they went toe-to-toe with a red-hot Gators team for 40 minutes before falling just short in the end.

But because the 'Dores only have one Quad 1A win (at UCF), those two Quad 1 losses were plenty enough to bump them out of the top 10.

At the other end of the spectrum, Kentucky entered the week as our first team out and trailed by as many as 18 points at LSU and by as much as 17 at Tennessee. By some miracle, though, the Wildcats pulled off a pair of comebacks, led in each by Denzel Aberdeen scoring a combined 39 points.

The game-ending hero in each, though, was Malachi Moreno. He hit the buzzer beater against LSU and he blocked Jaylen Carey's game-tying attempt against Tennessee—though, it probably came after the clock expired anyway.

Just like that, not only is Kentucky back in the field, but rather comfortably so, scoring two of its three best wins of the season in the past seven days. And they ought to be able to push their winning streak to five games, hosting Texas and Ole Miss this week.

Mid-Majors Summary (A10, AAC, MVC, MWC, WCC)

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8 Teams in the Projected Field: 8. Gonzaga, 24. Saint Louis, 29. Utah State, 37. Saint Mary's, 41. George Mason, 42. San Diego State, 43. New Mexico, 47. Murray State, 51. Florida Atlantic

Also Considered: Santa Clara, VCU, Dayton

Biggest Development: San Diego State Becoming Impossible to Ignore

If you wrote off San Diego State by Thanksgiving, you probably weren't alone. The Aztecs were 3-3 with a double-overtime home loss to Troy and a 40-point trouncing at the hands of Michigan as part of a four-game stretch in which they allowed 93.3 PPG.

Not exactly the SDSU of yore, right? The Aztecs didn't allow anyone to score more than 80 against them during the regular season last year.

Since December began, though, they've been a different animal, winning 10 of their last 11 games. Even including the 110-107 triple-overtime extravaganza against Boise State, they've allowed 68.5 points per game during that stretch. And even in the loss, they held current projected No. 1 overall seed Arizona to 68 points.

This past week, they won by 17 at Wyoming—forever one of the trickiest road trips in the country—and came back home for a critical home win over New Mexico, in which Miles Byrd was everywhere on his way to 21 points, eight rebounds, four blocks, three steals and three assists.

With the exception of BPI (which historically undervalues the Mountain West teams for altitude reasons) all of the metrics now deem San Diego State to be a top 50 team, as a three-bid MWC is starting to become a real possibility.

Elsewhere, Saint Mary's lost at Santa Clara on Saturday night and slid closer to the bubble in a bad way. It wasn't a terrible loss, but the Gaels simply don't have much worth bragging about on a resume that is 0-2 against Quad 1. They are now back in their all-too-familiar spot of probably needing at least one win over Gonzaga to salvage a bid.

Other 21 Leagues Summary

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21 Teams in the Projected Field: 46. Miami-Ohio, 48. Liberty, 49. Yale, 50. Utah Valley, 52. Stephen F. Austin, 53. UNC Wilmington, 54. High Point, 55. Hawaii, 56. Troy, 57. Wright State, 58. North Dakota State, 59. East Tennessee State, 60. Portland State, 61. Tennessee-Martin, 62. Queens, 63. Long Island, 64. Navy, 65. Saint Peter's, 66. Vermont, 67. Bethune-Cookman, 68. Maryland-Eastern Shore

Also Considered: N/A

Biggest Development: McNeese Drops Another Southland Game; Miami-Ohio Remains Perfect

Miami-Ohio got pushed to the limit at home by a Buffalo squad that seemingly could not miss from three-point range. But it was Eian Elmer hitting a game-tying triple at the end of regulation (after an incredible tap out by Brant Byers), and it was Peter Suder scoring the last of his 37 points on a game-winning triple with two seconds left in overtime as the RedHawks improved to 19-0.

They haven't played (and will not play) a Quad 1 game, and they've only played five combined games against Quads 2 and 3. As such, their case for an at-large bid is flimsy, at best. But this is also the best shooting team in the country and a super entertaining team to watch because of it. If they do make the dance, their perimeter assault will make them a serious threat to crash the Sweet 16.

While Miami-Ohio held serve, the other team from this tier with fringe hopes for an at-large bid suffered another bad loss and no longer has any realistic path to the dance aside from winning the Southland tournament.

McNeese had already lost its conference opener at Incarnate Word, and the Cowboys dropped another one against UTRGV on Saturday. They almost battled all the way back from what was a 41-18 deficit in the first half, but that hole was just a little too deep.

And with that loss, McNeese is no longer the projected Southland champ, slipping behind Stephen F. Austin. Long way to go, but it almost feels inevitable that those two will be duking it out for a No. 12 seed in the Southland championship game on March 11.