Biggest Potential Busts of 2025-26 MLB Free-Agent Class
A year ago, when B/R broke down who could possibly be the biggest busts of the 2024-25 free-agent class, one name we identified was slugger Anthony Santander, who had just signed a five-year, $92.5 million deal with the Toronto Blue Jays.
To this point, that prediction looks correct. Santander posted a .565 OPS in just 54 regular-season games, with a left shoulder injury turning the former All-Star's first campaign north of the border into a lost one. Unfortunately for Santander, the second year seems headed in a similar direction: he had surgery on his left shoulder at the outset of Spring Training, with recovery expected to sideline him for five to six months.
Who from this past season's free-agent class could be a bust? Here's a list of some possibilities. It should be noted that we aren't necessarily saying all these players named will be busts, but there are concerning trends that make them candidates not to live up to their contracts.
Honorable Mentions
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We're going to put Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette here, mostly just because of the structure of their contracts.
Both were qualified free agents, meaning their new clubs needed to give up their second and fifth-round picks in 2026, along with $1 million in international bonus pool money to sign them. That's a lot when both are only guaranteed to be with their new clubs for short periods
Tucker is a bit of an injury risk, though he's one of the best outfielders in baseball when he's healthy. Tucker has an opt-out after the second season of a four-year, $240 million deal.
For as crazy as it may seem, it's possible he'll exercise that if he performs as well as expected. Considering the Dodgers are two-time defending World Series Champions, a couple of really strong years from Tucker may be worth what it took to sign him, particularly if they help Los Angeles become a dynasty.
Bichette, meanwhile, signed a three-year, $126 million deal to join the Mets after they missed out on Tucker. Bichette is even more of a bust risk in the sense that if he has a great 2026 season, he can opt out next winter. In fact, he's likely to do that because he's on the right side of 30 and won't be eligible for a qualifying offer. Even if Bichette is tremendous in 2026, if he bolts after just one year, the Mets will have really limited their ability to draft and sign young talent this season. If they don't make a deep playoff run, there will likely be some remorse.
In the end, though, both Dodger and Met fans should be very excited about what each of these players can bring to their clubs in 2026.
J.T. Realmuto, Philadelphia Phillies
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When Bichette spurned the Phillies for the Mets, Dave Dombrowski and company quickly pivoted back to J.T. Realmuto, giving him a three-year, $45 million deal to return to the club he's spent the bulk of his career with.
Realmuto improbably continues to be a workhorse behind the plate, catching over 1,100 innings in his age-34 season. However, it's fair to wonder how much longer he can keep up a workload like that.
In terms of production, Realmuto is a long way away from when he was the consensus best catcher in baseball. In 2022, he posted an .820 OPS. In 2025, he posted a .700 OPS. He was a Gold Glover with 11 defensive runs saved in 2022, but dipped to minus-two in 2025.
Realmuto has $5 million in annual incentives under his new contract. The Phillies would probably love to pay him those incentives because it would mean he regained his spot as one of the best players in the sport. The fact that the incentives are unlikely to be met is why Realmuto is on this list.
Brandon Woodruff, Milwaukee Brewers
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Brandon Woodruff accepted the one-year, $22.025 million qualifying offer from the Brewers this offseason. While some say there's no such thing as a bad one-year deal, that theory will be tested if Woodruff isn't able to stay healthier than he has in recent seasons.
Woodruff missed the entire 2024 season recovering from right shoulder surgery. It took him until July 6 to make his 2025 debut, and to his credit, he was excellent over 12 starts, posting a 3.20 ERA. But then a lat strain ended his season in mid-September. Woodruff is excellent when healthy, but it's hard to feel great about his durability entering his age-33 season.
To make matters worse, the Brewers traded Freddy Peralta to the Mets in January, so it will burn even more this year if Woodruff can't stay healthy, even if there's reason to be excited about Jacob Misiorowski and Quinn Priester.
To be fair, it seems like the Brewers lose too much to remain competitive every year, and then you look up, and Pat Murphy's squad has won the NL Central. So maybe this gamble on Woodruff will pay off, though the guess here is that Milwaukee hoped the two-time All-Star would decline the QO when they extended it to him.
Jorge Polanco, New York Mets
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There's no doubt that Jorge Polanco was excellent for the Seattle Mariners last season, homering 26 times and posting an .821 OPS for a club that finished within a win of the World Series.
The biggest problem, though, with the Mets giving him a two-year, $40 million deal this offseason is that he played in just 302 of a possible 486 games between 2021 and 2023. He's a major risk from a health sense.
Additionally, the Mets are asking him to slide over to first base, a position he's played only once in his MLB career. Granted, he was never a particularly good second baseman, but second base will be occupied by Marcus Semien. So if Polanco struggles at first base, the Mets will either have to stick it out there or have him get the overwhelming majority of his at-bats at DH.
Ranger Suárez, Boston Red Sox
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On one hand, there's a lot to like about Ranger Suárez—who has thrived as both a starter and a reliever, particularly in the postseason—joining a starting rotation with Garrett Crochet, Sonny Gray and Brayan Bello.
On the other hand, it's fair to wonder how well a five-year, $130 million deal will age, even if Suárez figures to have a strong season in 2026. He's been on the injured list with back-related ailments in three of the last four seasons. His average fastball velocity dipped from 93.4 mph in 2023 to 91.3 mph in 2025. He's never been someone who's been in great shape, though you wouldn't know it from watching him field his position.
Again, we aren't saying that Suárez will be a bust. But the Phillies have made a lot of major investments, and let Suárez walk without much of an effort to retain him. Part of that is because they have frontline starting pitching even without him. Another part, though, is because for as great as he was over eight years with the Phillies, it's unclear how he'll age.
Gleyber Torres, Detroit Tigers
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Gleyber Torres is another player who accepted a one-year, $22.025 million qualifying offer. And again, he's another guy whose team likely hoped he would decline it, even if they are fond of him as a player.
If the Tigers get the version of Torres who posted an .812 OPS in the first half of last season, great. But he posted a .659 OPS after the All-Star Break, and while that's partially due to a sports hernia he played through, he's been inconsistent year to year in his career.
Perhaps more glaring is that $22.025 million is probably just more than you would like to pay Torres, even if he is healthy. There's an opportunity cost calculation here. Would the Tigers have matched the five-year, $175 million deal (with deferrals) the Chicago Cubs gave Alex Bregman if Torres declined the qualifying offer? Maybe not. But it's hard to think they wouldn't rather have paid Eugenio Suárez $15 million than Torres $22.025M.
Tomoyuki Sugano, Colorado Rockies
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To a degree, any pitcher who signs with the Rockies and agrees to make approximately half their starts at Coors Field becomes a candidate to be a bust. You can probably also include Michael Lorenzen—who signed an $8 million deal with Colorado this winter—on this list as well.
Tomoyuki Sugano landed with the Rockies on a one-year, $5.1 million deal. You're left to wonder if that was his only Major League offer after he pitched for the Baltimore Orioles as a 35-year-old rookie a season ago.
Sugano actually had a 3.23 ERA across his first 11 MLB starts last season, but was outpitching many of his peripheral stats. Not surprisingly, he came crashing back down to earth after that, finishing the season with a 4.64 ERA across 30 starts. Some of his advanced numbers—like a 5.79 expected ERA and 5.36 FIP—suggest he was even worse than an already high ERA would lead you to believe.
Perhaps this will be the year that the Rockies finally tap into something and figure out how to set their pitchers up for success at Coors Field. Don't bet on that, though.
Adolis García, Philadelphia Phillies
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If Adolis García has a bounce-back year, the electricity that he brings to a team will make him a fan-favorite in Philadelphia. Still, there's a reason the Texas Rangers non-tendered him, and the Phillies were able to get the former postseason hero on a one-year, $10 million commitment.
From 2021-2023, García hit 97 home runs, drove in 298 runs and posted a .777 OPS. A Phillies team that's in desperate need of improved production out of the cleanup spot would gladly sign up for that version of García.
However, over the last two seasons, García has posted just a .675 OPS, with most of his value coming in the fact that he's remained a tremendous defender in right field. If this is just what he is at the plate now, Dave Dombrowski and the Phillies will have egg on their faces for making him their only notable external lineup addition in the offseason.
Dustin May, St. Louis Cardinals
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Dustin May is the type of pitcher that it makes sense for Chaim Bloom and a rebuilding Cardinals team to take a risk on. That doesn't mean there's no chance—maybe even a high one—that May doesn't work out.
May accumulated enough service time to become a free agent this offseason, despite injuries limiting him to just 324 innings pitched over his first six seasons, a period that he spent primarily with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
To be fair, May has a 3.86 career ERA. However, according to FanGraphs, both his sinker and cutter had negative pitch values last season when he logged a career-high 132.1 innings between the Dodgers and Red Sox.
May is only 28 and the Cardinals are rebuilding, so he's an intriguing player to take a shot on. But if history is any indication, he'll spend much of his one-year, $12 million deal on the injured list.
Merrill Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks
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Merrill Kelly earned a multi-year deal based on his performance, but it was still a bit surprising to see the Diamondbacks reunite with him on a two-year, $40 million deal this offseason, given that he'll be 37 this season.
To his credit, Kelly still logged 184 innings last season, including a 3.22 ERA across 22 starts for the Diamondbacks. He had less success following a trade to the Texas Rangers, as he posted a 4.23 ERA in 10 starts.
Still, the Diamondbacks would sign up for the 3.52 ERA and 3.76 FIP that Kelly pitched to over 32 starts last season. It's just a matter of whether what we saw down the stretch with the Rangers was the beginning of age starting to catch up with the veteran righty. The mixture of age and a poor finish to 2025 makes a multi-year deal risky.
