Latest Stock Watch for 2026 Men's NCAA Tournament Bubble Teams
With less than five weeks remaining until Selection Sunday for the 2026 men's NCAA tournament, some bubble teams are playing like they want to be part of the dance while others...aren't.
In this stock watch of bubble teams, we'll take a look at teams ranging from projected No. 8 seeds down to those barely in the at-large conversation, to highlight who has done the most to alter its case for a bid over the course of its last five games.
"Stock Up" teams aren't necessarily in the projected field, nor are the "Stock Down" teams necessarily in a position of needing to play their way back into the picture. Moreover, not every bubble team will be part of today's conversation. We're just focused on those who have done the most good/bad for their resume over the past couple of weeks.
Teams are presented in no particular order, aside from oscillating between Stock Up and Stock Down.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats and metrics current through the start of play on Sunday.
Stock Up: Utah State Aggies
1 of 10
Current Resume: 20-3, NET: 25, RES: 26.0, QUAL: 29.3
Recent Wins: at New Mexico, vs. San Diego State, at Wyoming, at Colorado State, vs. Wyoming
Recent Losses: N/A
As a whole, the Mountain West is not in its usual great shape for a bunch of spots in the tournament field. The league sent four teams to the dance in each of 2022, 2023 and 2025, plus that historic six-bid year in 2024. But even two bids is a bit questionable this year, with all of New Mexico, San Diego State, Boise State, Nevada and Grand Canyon in the conversation, but struggling to make any headway.
The exception to the rule is Utah State, though even that was questionable a short time ago.
Consecutive losses to Grand Canyon and UNLV in mid-January dropped the Aggies from a projected No. 6 seed down into the bubble muck in a hurry. Even though those were merely USU's second and third losses of the season, a resume lacking for great wins left them in a bit of a precarious spot.
Since then, though, the Aggies have re-built themselves a nice cushion.
That 20-point road win over New Mexico last week was massive, and easily their most noteworthy victory of the season. They also scored Quad 2 wins over San Diego State, Colorado State and Wyoming, bringing them to 9-2 against the top two Quads, with three of those wins coming against Quad 1.
Most of the teams with at least an .800 winning percentage against the top two Quads are in the running for a No. 4 seed or better. Utah State certainly isn't that well off, but a single-digit seed for sure.
The Aggies do still play one game apiece against the five bubbly teams mentioned above, plus a road rematch with UNLV and home games against Memphis and Fresno State. Not an easy closing stretch by any means, but win five of eight and they'll be in fantastic shape.
If USU wins all eight, though, before also winning the MWC tournament, it definitely could get into the mix for a top four seed—while possibly turning the MWC into a one-bid league.
Stock Down: Miami (FL) Hurricanes
2 of 10
Current Resume: 18-5, NET: 38, RES: 47.0, QUAL: 43.0
Recent Wins: at Syracuse, vs. Stanford, at Boston College
Recent Losses: vs. Florida State, vs. California
Despite the pair of bad home losses noted above, there are still a number of things to like about the Hurricanes' resume.
First and foremost, there's the limited number of overall losses. At least among the major conference teams on the bubble, pretty much everyone has suffered more losses than Miami. And if the 'Canes can finish the year with nine total losses or fewer, it would bode extremely well for them, as major conference teams that fit that description almost always make the dance.
Their metrics are also...good enough. They entered the weekend ranked somewhere in the Nos. 41-51 range in all six of the pertinent team sheet metrics, which is classic "barely in the field" territory.
Here's the problem, though.
Miami has only played three games against teams in the KenPom top 60, losing all three (at Clemson; Florida and BYU on neutral courts) by double digits. So while the 'Canes have a nice stockpile of respectable road wins over Syracuse, Ole Miss, Wake Forest and Notre Dame, they are woefully lacking in the "marquee victories" department.
When they were 15-2 with nothing close to a bad loss on their resume, we were willing to overlook that deficiency. But those losses to Florida State and California changed the calculus in a big way—with the loss to the also-bubbly Golden Bears potentially being the reason Cal gets in while Miami gets left out.
Looking ahead, Miami still has road games against Virginia, NC State and SMU, as well as home games against Louisville and North Carolina.
The opportunities are there. The question is whether they'll turn some of them into quality wins or gradually acquire a double-digit number in the loss column.
Stock Up: Indiana Hoosiers
3 of 10
Current Resume: 16-8, NET: 33, RES: 42.0, QUAL: 29.7
Recent Wins: vs. Purdue, at UCLA, at Rutgers, vs. Wisconsin
Recent Losses: at USC
In mid-January, Indiana wasn't even worth considering for a spot in the field. Though the predictive metrics still believed in the Hoosiers, they were 12-7 overall and 0-6 vs. Quad 1 with just one Quad 2 win, at home over Washington.
Thanks to a complete lack of unforgivable losses, though, it was only going to take a quality win or two for them to really surge back into the conversation.
They got those wins in back-to-back fashion to close out January, upsetting Purdue before a double-overtime win at UCLA—the latter of which ultimately could be the reason that the Hoosiers make the dance instead of the Bruins.
That pair of wins pushed the Hoosiers into the projected field for now, and they'll likely remain there so long as they take care of business in the remaining games that they should win.
A win at Illinois, at Purdue or at home against Michigan State would be huge, but even if they miss on all three, getting home wins over Oregon, Northwestern and Minnesota before a season-ending road win over Ohio State may well be enough.
As always when it comes to bubble talk, though, it would hinge on what happens elsewhere. We could have an inordinate number of teams currently on the wrong side of the bubble picking up marquee wins down the stretch. There could be zero bid stealers or there could be several. So we would strongly recommend that Indiana pick up a big win in one of those three Quad 1A games, just to be safe.
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Stock Down: George Mason Patriots
4 of 10
Current Resume: 21-3, NET: 74, RES: 47.3, QUAL: 87.3
Recent Wins: vs. Davidson, at St. Bonaventure, vs. Saint Joseph's
Recent Losses: at Rhode Island, vs. Duquesne
When the crux of a team's argument for inclusion in the projected field is its lack of losses, it doesn't take much of a losing skid to go from "promising" to "borderline hopeless."
Such is life for George Mason, who went from an 18-1 projected dancer to a 20-3 bracketology afterthought in a hurry with missteps against Rhode Island and Duquesne.
The home loss to the Dukes was the real dagger. Mason led by 2-3 possessions for most of the second half, but collapsed down the stretch with three consecutive turnovers in crunch time.
And just like that, the Patriots might be toast.
The 21-3 record looks nice enough, but the 1-2 record against the top two Quads is a deal-breaker.
The potentially good news on that front is that Mason still has Quad 1 games against VCU and Saint Louis, a Quad 2 road game against George Washington and a handful of games that will land either at the bottom of Quad 2 or the top of Quad 3. Thus, if they were to finish strong, at least there would be a couple more noteworthy wins added to the ledger.
They probably need to go at least 5-2, though, to enter the A-10 tournament with any sort of at-large pulse. And the predictive metrics suggest that's a bit of a long shot.
Stock Up: A Host of Mid-Major Hopefuls
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VCU Rams
Current Resume: 18-6, NET: 49, RES: 48.3, QUAL: 50.0
Last Five Games (all wins): at Davidson, vs. Richmond, vs. Loyola-Chicago, at Fordham, vs. Dayton
Belmont Bruins
Current Resume: 22-3, NET: 56, RES: 49.3, QUAL: 72.3
Last Five Games (all wins): vs. Illinois St, at Valparaiso, vs. Murray State, vs. Drake, at Illinois-Chicago
Liberty Flames
Current Resume: 20-3, NET: 79, RES: 55.3, QUAL: 88.0
Last Five Games (all wins): at Western Kentucky, vs. Delaware, at MTSU, at Delaware, vs. Missouri State
If you haven't already noticed, the state of the bubble is a bit bleak.
Major-conference teams who already have eight or nine losses are being considered for a spot in the field because at least they have one or two quality wins. Others with five or six losses are on the board almost solely because of their limited supply of losses.
But what about these mid-majors who have been hot as of late?
In theory, Belmont and Liberty will both win their conference tournaments, and that projected status has kept bracketologists from grappling with the possibility of putting any of those teams into the at-large field over the likes of Miami-Florida, Texas or Indiana. With three losses apiece and a combined record of 5-0 against Quad 2, though, it's at least worth a conversation.
And while VCU doesn't have a win against the projected field, the Rams do have five Quad 2 wins and nothing close to a terrible loss working against them. If they were to stay hot and score a road win over Saint Louis on Feb. 20, they could cobble together one heck of a worthy resume in a hurry.
This is usually how it goes in early February, though. A select few mid-majors emerge as viable at-large candidates, and then it's a tightrope walk to Selection Sunday for all of them. Let's see which of these three can make it through another five games without taking an L.
Stock Down: Seton Hall Pirates
6 of 10
Current Resume: 16-8, NET: 52, RES: 57.0, QUAL: 54.7
Recent Wins: vs. Xavier, vs. Marquette
Recent Losses: at DePaul, at Villanova, at Creighton
I truly enjoy doing bracketology on a weekly basis all season long, but 2025-26 Seton Hall sure has been a prime example of how pointless it can be.
The Pirates entered the season as a team not even remotely worth considering, fresh off last year's 7-25 disaster. But after an 11-1 start to the year, they had blossomed into the second-best team in the Big East, projected for a No. 7 seed in our Dec. 23 field.
They were still a No. 8 seed three weeks later, sitting at 14-2 and legitimately looking like a tournament-caliber team more than halfway through the regular season.
With six losses in eight games played since then, though, it has all come unraveled in a hurry.
Seton Hall almost won the home game against Connecticut. It really should have won the game at St. John's, blowing what had been a 15-point lead in the second half. They collapsed late at Creighton on Saturday night, blowing a 10-point lead in the final four minutes.
Would've. Should've. Could've.
The only games the Pirates have actually won in the past four weeks were a pair of ultimately meaningless home games against Xavier and Marquette.
If they go 6-1 the rest of the way, maybe there's still a chance here. That would mean a win at UConn or a home win over St. John's, though, and a re-discovered ability to actually close out games on a regular basis.
Stock Up: North Carolina State Wolfpack
7 of 10
Current Resume: 18-6, NET: 27, RES: 29.0, QUAL: 24.7
Recent Wins: at Pittsburgh, vs. Syracuse, at Wake Forest, at SMU, vs. Virginia Tech
Recent Losses: N/A
At this point, it's almost laughable to mention NC State in a bubble discussion, as the Wolfpack have moved rather comfortably into the projected field, sure to appear as a No. 8 seed or better in the vast majority of projected brackets updated in the next few days.
Less than three weeks ago, though, NC State was most certainly on the bubble—and almost indisputably on the wrong side of it.
The Wolfpack were sitting at 12-6 overall with a terrible home loss to Georgia Tech, neutral-site losses to both Seton Hall and Texas and nary a win over the projected field. (Their best win was either the home game against VCU or the victory over Boise State in the Maui Invitational.)
Maybe that loss to the Yellow Jackets was just the wake-up call they needed, though, because they rallied for an overtime road win over Clemson a few days later to jump start a six-game winning streak that also included a dramatic road win over SMU.
Darrion Williams was the guy on this roster that everyone was talking about before the season began, and he has had a few 20-point games in recent weeks. But it's been point guard Quadir Copeland (15.2 PPG, 10.0 APG and 2.5 SPG) and Ven-Allen Lubin (15.2 PPG and 8.2 RPG) doing the heavy lifting during this six-game surge.
NC State still has road games remaining against Louisville and Virginia, as well as home games against both Duke and North Carolina. But as long as they don't lose any of the other remaining games against Miami, Notre Dame and Stanford, it's pretty likely they'll be dancing.
Stock Down: Virginia Tech Hokies
8 of 10
Current Resume: 16-8, NET: 55, RES: 49.0, QUAL: 64.3
Recent Wins: at Syracuse, vs. Georgia Tech
Recent Losses: at Louisville, vs. Duke, at NC State
Those three losses listed above?
Each one was a Quad 1A game, and not anything that individually damaged Virginia Tech's case for a bid.
However, that collection of missed opportunities has put a considerable damper on Virginia Tech's argument, taking the Hokies from 1-2 against teams projected to dance to a more problematic 1-5. (Plus, you know, three other losses to VCU, Wake Forest and Stanford.)
The Hokies do have respectable resume metrics, thanks in large part to their 5-1 record against Quad 2. Outside of the triple-overtime home win over Virginia on New Year's Eve, though, they've yet to pick up a legitimately impressive win.
For better or worse, they do have plenty of chances left to change that, with road games remaining against Clemson, Miami, North Carolina and Virginia.
If they win any of those four—while also winning the home games against Florida State, Wake Forest and Boston College along the way—the Hokies could still wind up with a decent case for a bid. At any rate, Torvik's TeamCast suggests Virginia Tech would be a "Last Four In" team if it goes 4-3 down the stretch, winning the three home games and beating Miami.
At 4-6 in their last 10 games, though, it feels more likely that the remaining road is just going to further expose the Hokies as a team that doesn't belong in the NCAA tournament.
Stock Up: Miami-Ohio RedHawks
9 of 10
Current Resume: 24-0, NET: 50, RES: 37.0, QUAL: 84.0
Recent Wins: at Kent State, vs. UMass, vs. Northern Illinois, at Buffalo, at Marshall
Recent Losses: N/A
Yes, there was a "Mid-Major Hopefuls" Stock Up section earlier, but these undefeated RedHawks deserve an entire conversation of their own, do they not?
Miami-Ohio's strength of schedule is problematic, to say the least. But those road wins over Kent State, Buffalo and Marshall in the past few weeks were three of this team's six most noteworthy wins of the entire season, so things are looking better with each passing day.
The RedHawks still haven't faced a Quad 1 opponent, and they've still only played one game against a NET Top 120 foe—winning by three at home against Akron in early January.
This has led to hypothetical conversations about how a team like Texas would fare against Miami-Ohio's schedule and vice versa. But all we know for sure is that this team is a perfect 24-0, and that no team with 29 or more wins on Selection Sunday has ever missed the NCAA tournament.
We would implore the RedHawks to not test the limits of that rule, though. If they go 6-1 the rest of the regular season before losing to Akron in the MAC championship to finish up at 32-2, you have to like their chances.
But if they lose two of the next seven before also losing to Akron in the MAC final to finish at 31-3? Or if they go 6-1 but lose right away in the MAC tournament to end up at 30-2 with a possibly Quad 4 loss added to the docket? It would get iffy, at best, in a hurry.
So far, so good, though, and Miami-Ohio will be favored in each game the rest of the way in its quest for a rare undefeated regular season.
Stock Down: New Mexico Lobos
10 of 10
Current Resume: 18-6, NET: 45, RES: 53.0, QUAL: 50.3
Recent Wins: vs. Nevada, at UNLV, at San Jose State
Recent Losses: vs. Utah State, vs. Boise State
It's hard to believe that the Mountain West might be a one-bid league, especially in a year where the Big East is looking destined for exactly three bids. Because when that happened two years ago, the Mountain West filled the Big East void with six bids.
This year, though, the MWC's bubble teams simply aren't playing their way into the field, most recently evidenced by New Mexico's back-to-back home losses to Utah State and Boise State.
Neither one was a terrible loss. Utah State is 25th in the NET, while Boise State is just outside the top 50.
But as a team that entered February smack dab on the bubble, for every home loss the Lobos take, they just about need to make up for it with a quality road win.
To that end, they do still have games remaining at Grand Canyon, at Nevada and at Utah State—plus a massive bubble home game against San Diego State. That's three Quad 1 opportunities for a team that is presently 1-4 against that subset of opponents, winning at VCU back in mid-December.
If they split those four (while also winning the other games against Air Force, Fresno State and Colorado State) to finish the regular season at 23-8, it's probably going to be a photo finish. Would definitely help if one of the two wins came in the game at Utah State, but even that wouldn't necessarily seal the deal.
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