2026 Men's NCAA Tournament Bracket: Latest Projection of the Field of 68
It may be the winter break, but the men's college basketball season is still going strong with results that will impact what the 2026 NCAA tournament field ends up looking like.
While teams such as Kentucky and Villanova picked up crucial wins in the past seven days, others like Notre Dame, Santa Clara and Arizona State suffered devastating losses in their now unlikely quest to dance. And thanks to Duke's defeat to Texas Tech, our holiday gift to the Connecticut Huskies is a brand-new projected No. 1 seed.
At this point in the bracketology journey, resume (or RES) metrics (SOR, KPI and WAB) are starting to carry more weight than the predictive (or QUAL) metrics (KenPom, Torvik and BPI) do, but all of those metrics—as well as quadrant-based records and strength of schedule—factor into the seeding process.
The projected auto bids from each of the 31 conferences will eventually be based entirely on conference record. Conference play hasn't begun yet for most leagues, though, so we're simply rolling with the highest-rated team in the average of the six metrics listed above as each league's projected champ.
With that out of the way, let's start with the full bracket before some commentary on the current state of the bubble and the top seed line. Following that, we have a full conference-by-conference rundown, highlighting some of the biggest changes from one week ago.
The Projected Bracket
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East Region (Washington, D.C.)
Philadelphia, PA
No. 1 Connecticut vs. No. 16 Colgate
No. 8 Saint Louis vs. No. 9 Oklahoma State
San Diego, CA
No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 13 Utah Valley
No. 5 Arkansas vs. No. 12 Akron
Buffalo, NY
No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 14 High Point
No. 6 Virginia vs. No. 11 Tulsa
Greenville, SC
No. 2 Duke vs. No. 15 North Dakota State
No. 7 Saint Mary's vs. No. 10 St. John's
Midwest Region (Chicago)
Buffalo, NY
No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 16 Southern / Howard
No. 8 UCF vs. No. 9 Kentucky
Oklahoma City, OK
No. 4 Kansas vs. No. 13 UC San Diego
No. 5 Tennessee vs. No. 12 McNeese
Oklahoma City, OK
No. 3 Houston vs. No. 14 Arkansas State
No. 6 USC vs. No. 11 Miami
Greenville, SC
No. 2 Vanderbilt vs. No. 15 Northern Colorado
No. 7 Seton Hall vs. No. 10 Ohio State
South Region (Houston)
St. Louis, MO
No. 1 Iowa State vs. No. 16 Vermont / Long Island
No. 8 UCLA vs. No. 9 Auburn
Philadelphia, PA
No. 4 North Carolina vs. No. 13 Liberty
No. 5 Illinois vs. No. 12 Yale
Portland, OR
No. 3 BYU vs. No. 14 Oakland
No. 6 Utah State vs. No. 11 Indiana / Virginia Tech
St. Louis, MO
No. 2 Purdue vs. No. 15 Lipscomb
No. 7 Baylor vs. No. 10 Clemson
West Region (San Jose)
San Diego, CA
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 16 Lindenwood
No. 8 LSU vs. No. 9 Iowa
Tampa, FL
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 13 Quinnipiac
No. 5 Louisville vs. No. 12 Belmont
Tampa, FL
No. 3 Nebraska vs. No. 14 Hofstra
No. 6 Florida vs. No. 11 Villanova / NC State
Portland, OR
No. 2 Gonzaga vs. No. 15 Furman
No. 7 Georgia vs. No. 10 SMU
Ranking the No. 1 Seeds
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1. Michigan Wolverines (11-0, NET: 1, RES: 2.0, QUAL: 1.7)
2. Arizona Wildcats (12-0, NET: 2, RES: 1.7, QUAL: 3.0)
3. Iowa State Cyclones (12-0, NET: 4, RES: 7.0, QUAL: 5.3)
4. Connecticut Huskies (12-1, NET: 8, RES: 3.0, QUAL: 6.0)
5. Duke Blue Devils (11-1, NET: 5, RES: 6.7, QUAL: 5.0)
No change in the overall top two, as Michigan and Arizona continue to assert their dominance as the best in the business this year.
The Wolverines merely hosted La Salle this week, but pummeled the Explorers as they've been pummeling everyone for more than a month, winning their last seven games by an average score of 98.6 to 63.0. Meanwhile, the Wildcats beat San Diego State by 23 in between destroying both Abilene Christian and Bethune-Cookman.
Iowa State also maintained its perfect record with a 91-60 beatdown of Long Beach State.
Our former No. 3 overall seed suffered its first loss, though, with Duke falling to Texas Tech in Madison Square Garden on Saturday night.
It wasn't a bad loss, with the Red Raiders up to a projected No. 4 seed. But it's a loss that did finally open the door for Connecticut to ascend to the top line with its four wins against the top half of Quad 1 and merely a short-handed loss to Arizona.
Close on Duke's heels at No. 5 overall are Gonzaga, Purdue, Vanderbilt and Michigan State, the latter with four Quad 1 wins and just the one loss to Duke.
Looking forward to conference play starting to create some separation up here, as there are almost too many undefeated and one-loss teams with multiple great wins already to their credit.
10 Words on Each of the 10 'Bubbliest' Teams
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Fifth-to-Last In: Miami Hurricanes (11-2, NET: 35, RES: 46.7, QUAL: 37.0)—Will need to beat a quality opponent at some point.
Fourth-to-Last In: Villanova Wildcats (9-2, NET: 29, RES: 37.3, QUAL: 33.3)—Solid win over Wisconsin bumps 'Nova into the projected field.
Third-to-Last In: Indiana Hoosiers (9-3, NET: 32, RES: 57.7, QUAL: 23.3)—At least they didn't lose to Chicago State or Siena?
Second-to-Last In: NC State Wolfpack (9-4, NET: 31, RES: 57.3, QUAL: 24.0)—Routed Ole Miss on Sunday to wrap up nonconference gauntlet
Last Team In: Virginia Tech Hokies (11-2, NET: 59, RES: 36.0, QUAL: 73.7)—Rallied from 19 down to survive against Elon in overtime.
***Cut Line***
First Team Out: Butler Bulldogs (10-3, NET: 46, RES: 41.7, QUAL: 51.0)—Blown out by UConn, but rallied for win over Northwestern.
Second Team Out: California Golden Bears (12-1, NET: 44, RES: 34.7, QUAL: 63.7)—Pathetic schedule, but best record through 13 games since 1959.
Third Team Out: New Mexico Lobos (10-2, NET: 55, RES: 40.0, QUAL: 75.3)—Won seven straight, and MWC is never a one-bid league.
Fourth Team Out: Wisconsin Badgers (8-4, NET: 75, RES: 76.0, QUAL: 43.7)—Loss to Villanova knocked the Badgers out of the field.
Fifth Team Out: Creighton Bluejays (8-5, NET: 58, RES: 71.7, QUAL: 45.7)—Not actually close, but destroyed Xavier and Marquette this week.
ACC Summary
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9 Teams in the Projected Field: 5. Duke, 13. North Carolina, 19. Louisville, 21. Virginia, 38. SMU, 39. Clemson, 41. Miami, 44. NC State, 45. Virginia Tech
Also Considered: California
Biggest Development: Louisville pummeled by Tennessee
Louisville's superstar freshman, starting point guard and soon-to-be lottery pick Mikel Brown Jr. was out this week with a back injury. Not having him available for the true road game against Tennessee was a major asterisk and an absence that figures to be mentioned on a regular basis as we assess both of those teams moving forward.
Regardless, the Cardinals got smoked 83-62 by the Volunteers in a game that was never particularly in doubt after the first 10 minutes. They slipped two seed lines and now sit directly behind Tennessee on the overall seed list.
Louisville has now played four Quad 1 games against Kentucky, Arkansas, Indiana and Tennessee and has allowed 84.5 points while going 2-2 in those contests.
The Cardinals do play at an above-average pace, and they let it fly from beyond the arc at the highest rate of any team in the country, making them built to win high-scoring affairs. But lackluster defense is becoming a real concern as they prepare to open ACC play with road games against Cal and Stanford.
Speaking of the Golden Bears, though, they are starting to get intriguing at 12-1.
They are merely 1-1 against top 100 opponents, and the win over UCLA came on a night when the Bruins were without Tyler Bilodeau and with Donovan Dent playing at nowhere near full strength. But weak schedule or not, 12-1 is unfamiliar territory for a Cal team that hadn't even started 9-4 or better in any of the past eight seasons. That ACC opener against Louisville is a massive opportunity.
Big 12 Summary
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9 Teams in the Projected Field: 2. Arizona, 3. Iowa State, 10. BYU, 11. Houston, 14. Kansas, 15. Texas Tech, 25. Baylor, 32. UCF, 33. Oklahoma State
Also Considered: Arizona State, TCU, Colorado
Biggest Development: Texas Tech makes a wild comeback to upset Duke
Texas Tech had whiffed on each of its first three chances at a statement win, losing at a shorthanded Illinois one week into the season, losing by 30 to Purdue in The Bahamas and getting clipped by Arkansas in a thriller in Dallas two weekends ago.
All signs pointed toward another missed opportunity on Saturday night at Madison Square Garden, trailing Duke by 17 early in the second half while star big man JT Toppin battled early foul trouble.
It was still an 11-point game with a little over six minutes remaining when the Red Raiders' pair of stars went to work in a huge way. Toppin and Christian Anderson combined to score TTU's final 25 points while Duke's Cameron Boozer made his final field goal with 6:29 remaining.
Tech seemingly could not miss down the stretch while picking up the resume-defining win that it had been lacking.
The predictive metrics still put the Red Raiders in the Nos. 25-30 range, but the more important results-based metrics now paint this team as the Big 12's sixth squad deserving of a top-four seed.
Trending toward the opposite end of the spectrum, though, Arizona State suffered a pair of missteps this week to former Pac-12 rivals, losing at UCLA and at home against Oregon State. The former wasn't too damaging, but the latter was like a lead balloon for an already questionable resume. The Sun Devils were somewhat comfortably in our projected field one week ago, but they are now long gone.
Big East Summary
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4 Teams in the Projected Field: 4. Connecticut, 26. Seton Hall, 37. St. John's, 42. Villanova
Also Considered: Butler, Creighton
Biggest Development: Villanova sneaks in while St. John's acquires yet another L
Let's begin with the good, which was Villanova finally picking up a win worth mentioning.
The metrics had been painting the Wildcats as a tournament-caliber team for a little while, but they didn't have the wins to back it up, losing a close one to BYU on opening night and getting smashed at Michigan in their only two games against the top two Quads.
On Friday night, though, they went out to Milwaukee for a "neutral" victory over Wisconsin in which they never trailed, but did need overtime after blowing what had been a 15-point lead early in the second half.
Considering opportunities for quality wins in Big East play will be few and far between, it was a win that Villanova almost had to have. (The Wildcats have a key one right off the bat, though, opening league play at Seton Hall on Tuesday night.)
One day after Villanova's win, St. John's fell to 7-4 overall with a woeful showing in the second half against Kentucky.
More concerning than the overall record is the fact that the Red Storm are just 1-4 against the top two Quads, with losses to Alabama, Iowa State, Auburn and now Kentucky bookending their lone quality win over Baylor (in Las Vegas).
They had been a projected No. 5 seed, but this was a "straw that broke the camel's back" sort of outcome for a team that is now outside the top 50 in both SOR and WAB.
Big Ten Summary
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10 Teams in the Projected Field: 1. Michigan, 7. Purdue, 9. Michigan State, 12. Nebraska, 17. Illinois, 22. USC, 31. UCLA, 34. Iowa, 40. Ohio State, 43. Indiana
Also Considered: Wisconsin
Biggest Development: Ohio State squanders frantic comeback against North Carolina
In the second game of the CBS Sports Classic in Atlanta, Ohio State trailed North Carolina for most of the afternoon. But all of a sudden, the Buckeyes couldn't miss down the stretch, going on a 21-8 run and turning a 10-point deficit into a three-point lead when John Mobley Jr. converted a four-point play with less than a minute remaining.
The Tar Heels didn't panic, though. And in his first game back after missing more than a month with a broken arm, Seth Trimble got into the paint on back-to-back possessions, converting one bucket and finding Henri Veesaar for another as North Carolina stole a one-point victory from the jaws of defeat.
The loss was Ohio State's third in five games, which included a major mishap against Pittsburgh on a buzzer-beater.
The Buckeyes do have a trio of decent wins over Northwestern, West Virginia and Notre Dame, but nothing against a projected tournament team. We probably had them seeded too generously one week ago on the No. 7 line, but they are now barely clinging to a spot on the No. 10 line.
Elsewhere on the Big Ten bubble, Wisconsin falls from the No. 10 line to out of the field with its aforementioned loss to Villanova. And after Washington crept onto the fringe of the bubble with a road win over USC earlier in the month, the Huskies might be gone for good following their Friday night loss at Seattle.
SEC Summary
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9 Teams in the Projected Field: 8. Vanderbilt, 16. Alabama, 18. Tennessee, 20. Arkansas, 23. Florida, 27. Georgia, 30. LSU, 35. Auburn, 36. Kentucky
Also Considered: Oklahoma
Biggest Development: Kentucky gets another key win; Vanderbilt delivers another drubbing
Two weeks ago, Kentucky was not in our projected field, sitting at 5-4 with five Quad 4 wins. KenPom still had the Wildcats rated as a top 20 team, but that 94-59 loss to Gonzaga was the final straw. They had to prove that they belonged in the NCAA tournament.
Lo and behold, getting healthy appears to have turned their season around.
Mouhamed Dioubate missed five games and Jaland Lowe missed six, but they each played in both of the recent wins over Indiana and St. John's, for a combined line of 46 points, 25 rebounds, six steals, five assists and two blocks.
They also got Arizona State transfer (and projected lottery pick) Jayden Quaintance out there for his season debut on Saturday against the Johnnies, and he was a game-changer for his 18 minutes of "give a darn" that this team had been lacking through the first six weeks.
They still need to figure out how to bring the intensity in the first half, but they were plus-19 in the second half of each of those games, finally looking like the contender they were supposed to be.
After a brutal shooting night in a close call at Memphis on Wednesday, Vanderbilt was back with a vengeance on Sunday afternoon for a 98-67 shellacking of Wake Forest in Winston-Salem.
The undefeated Commodores still haven't faced a truly marquee opponent, but they do have three Quad 1 wins and three Quad 2 wins and certainly look the part of a contender when that offense is doing its thing.
Mid-Majors Summary (A10, AAC, MVC, MWC, WCC)
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6 Teams in the Projected Field: 6. Gonzaga, 24. Utah State, 28. Saint Mary's, 29. Saint Louis, 46. Tulsa, 49. Belmont
Also Considered: New Mexico, Boise State, George Mason, St. Bonaventure
Biggest Development: Utah State opens MWC play with quite a statement
Colorado State went 9-2 in nonconference play with wins over Colorado, South Florida and Wichita State and a pair of two-point losses to Virginia Tech and Denver. Though that home loss to the Pioneers was rather unforgivable, the Rams entered the MWC portion of their schedule with a viable case for an at-large bid...
And immediately ran into a buzzsaw.
Utah State was already our highest projected seed among mid-majors not named Gonzaga, and the Aggies went off for 1.57 points per possession in a 100-58 thrashing of Colorado State. They shot 64 percent from the field and 57 percent from three-point range while grabbing 16 out of a possible 25 offensive rebounds.
It was a clinic that was over by midway through the first half, but Utah State never let up. (Nor should it have, with scoring margin as big a factor as it is.) The Aggies scored 33 of their 100 points in the final 10 minutes, scoring on 15 consecutive possessions at one point.
The Aggies are now up to a No. 6 seed, and with no games remaining against current KenPom Top 50 foes.
How high can they climb?
Other 21 Leagues Summary
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21 Teams in the Projected Field: 47. McNeese, 48. Yale, 50. Akron, 51. UC San Diego, 52. Utah Valley, 53. Liberty, 54. Quinnipiac, 55. Hofstra, 56. Arkansas State, 57. High Point, 58. Oakland, 59. Lipscomb, 60. North Dakota State, 61. Furman, 62. Northern Colorado, 63. Colgate, 64. Lindenwood, 65. Vermont, 66. Long Island, 67. Southern, 68. Howard
Also Considered: N/A
Biggest Development: Miami-Ohio improves to 13-0
Akron is the projected champion of the Mid-American Conference, and it isn't particularly close, especially as far as KenPom is concerned. The Zips are almost top 50 in that ranking, and no other MAC team is presently in the top 100.
But the MAC is also home to one of the final six undefeated teams still standing, as Miami-Ohio improved to 13-0 with three more wins in the past seven days.
For the most part, the RedHawks' schedule has been a joke. KenPom ranks their nonconference schedule as the third-weakest in the entire country, while their NET NCSOS rank is dead last.
They did win at Wright State this past Tuesday, though, which was their most impressive victory of the season by a country mile. Brant Byers went off for a career-high 27 points. And in the subsequent road win over Ball State, it was Almar Atlason exploding for 26 points off the bench.
Between the two games, Miami-Ohio shot 23-for-43 (53.5 percent) from three-point range, which is always a good recipe for getting wins.
We'll see how much longer it lasts. The RedHawks play at Bowling Green next Tuesday and host Akron next Saturday, both of which are projected to be losses. But who would have guessed they'd make it this far?
