2026 Men's NCAA Tournament Bracket: Latest Projection of the Field of 68
The Michigan Wolverines just keep churning along, winning two more games this week against power-five foes by a combined margin of 46 points in further cementing themselves as the team to beat in the 2026 men's NCAA tournament.
However, fellow projected No. 1 seeds Arizona, Duke and Iowa State also remain undefeated and have done all they can to keep pace with the maize and blue.
The season is still relatively young, though. Six weeks down, but three months yet to come, the vast majority of which will be conference play.
In baseball, they say you can't win a pennant in April. The same goes for not stitching Final Four banners in December. But if the season ended today, here's our updated guess at what the bracket would look like.
At this point in the season, predictive (or QUAL) metrics (KenPom, Torvik and BPI) still carry more weight on the team sheets than the resume (or RES) metrics (SOR, KPI and WAB) do, but all of those metrics—as well as quadrant-based records and strength of schedule—factor into the seeding process.
The projected auto bids from each of the 31 conferences will eventually be based entirely on conference record. Conference play hasn't begun yet for most leagues, though, so we're simply rolling with the highest-rated team in the average of the six metrics listed above as each league's projected champ.
With that out of the way, let's start with the full bracket before some commentary on the current state of the bubble and the top seed line. Following that, we have a full conference-by-conference rundown, highlighting some of the biggest changes from one week ago.
The Projected Bracket
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East Region (Washington, D.C.)
Greenville, SC
No. 1 Duke vs. No. 16 Colgate
No. 8 Georgia vs. No. 9 Oklahoma State
Tampa, FL
No. 4 Kansas vs. No. 13 High Point
No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 12 UC San Diego
Buffalo, NY
No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 14 Quinnipiac
No. 6 Virginia vs. No. 11 Tulsa
Philadelphia, PA
No. 2 Connecticut vs. No. 15 Lipscomb
No. 7 Ohio State vs. No. 10 TCU
Midwest Region (Chicago)
Buffalo, NY
No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 16 Vermont / Norfolk State
No. 8 Seton Hall vs. No. 9 UCF
Tampa, FL
No. 4 North Carolina vs. No. 13 Hofstra
No. 5 St. John's vs. No. 12 Yale
Oklahoma City, OK
No. 3 Houston vs. No. 14 Northern Colorado
No. 6 Florida vs. No. 11 Clemson
Greenville, SC
No. 2 Vanderbilt vs. No. 15 Marshall
No. 7 Baylor vs. No. 10 UCLA
South Region (Houston)
St. Louis, MO
No. 1 Iowa State vs. No. 16 Bethune Cookman / Central Connecticut
No. 8 Saint Mary's vs. No. 9 LSU
San Diego, CA
No. 4 Arkansas vs. No. 13 Utah Valley
No. 5 Illinois vs. No. 12 Belmont
Portland, OR
No. 3 BYU vs. No. 14 Sam Houston State
No. 6 USC vs. No. 11 Iowa / Kentucky
St. Louis, MO
No. 2 Purdue vs. No. 15 North Dakota State
No. 7 Auburn vs. No. 10 SMU
West Region (San Jose)
San Diego, CA
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 16 Tennessee Martin
No. 8 Utah State vs. No. 9 Saint Louis
Oklahoma City, OK
No. 4 Nebraska vs. No. 13 Akron
No. 5 Tennessee vs. No. 12 McNeese
Philadelphia, PA
No. 3 Louisville vs. No. 14 East Tennessee State
No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 11 Miami / Indiana
Portland, OR
No. 2 Gonzaga vs. No. 15 Oakland
No. 7 Arizona State vs. No. 10 Wisconsin
Ranking the No. 1 Seeds
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1. Michigan Wolverines (10-0, NET: 1, RES: 1.7, QUAL: 2.0)
2. Arizona Wildcats (9-0, NET: 4, RES: 2.0, QUAL: 4.7)
3. Duke Blue Devils (10-0, NET: 2, RES: 4.0, QUAL: 2.3)
4. Iowa State Cyclones (11-0, NET: 5, RES: 7.0, QUAL: 5.3)
5. Connecticut Huskies (10-1, NET: 8, RES: 4.7, QUAL: 7.0)
6. Gonzaga Bulldogs (10-1, NET: 3, RES: 7.0, QUAL: 2.7)
7. Purdue Boilermakers (10-1, NET: 9, RES: 11.0, QUAL: 7.3)
8. Vanderbilt Commodores (10-0, NET: 7, RES: 7.0, QUAL: 12.3)
For the most part, the only thing that has changed here in the past week is an increase to pretty much all of the win totals.
The one exception to that rule was Arizona supplanting Duke at No. 2 overall after the Wildcats relentlessly stomped Alabama in Birmingham on Saturday night.
At this point, both their overall resumes and their KenPom ratings are just about identical. But while Duke has eked out wins over Arkansas, Florida and Michigan State in recent weeks, Arizona has taken up the reins as the top challenger to Michigan with its recent run of blowouts.
There is still plenty of time and plenty of marquee opportunities for them to sort things out, though. And in the grand scheme of things, there's truly no difference between No. 2 and No. 3 overall, aside from who gets first choice of jersey color if they square off in the Final Four.
Elsewhere, Michigan throttled both Villanova and Maryland to remain convincingly No. 1 overall. Iowa State got pushed by Iowa in that annual in-state rivalry, but managed to remain undefeated.
Connecticut bested both Florida and Texas and remains a ridiculously strong No. 2 seed. Same goes for Gonzaga after its 10-point victory over UCLA (that ended long past Mick Cronin's dad's bedtime.) Purdue smoked both Minnesota and Marquette and Vanderbilt stayed perfect with a win over Central Arkansas.
All told, this tier went 11-0, and mostly in convincing fashion. For what it's worth, last week's No. 3 seed line went a combined 6-0 to keep that status quo, too. It was pretty much an impossible week to gain any ground up top.
10 Words on Each of the 10 'Bubbliest' Teams
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Fifth-to-Last In: Clemson Tigers (8-3, NET: 28, RES: 47.7, QUAL: 28.7)—Collapsed against BYU; needed a late comeback to survive Mercer.
Fourth-to-Last In: Iowa Hawkeyes (9-2, NET: 19, RES: 30.3, QUAL: 25.7)—Metrics are great, but where are the wins worth mentioning?
Third-to-Last In: Miami Hurricanes (9-2, NET: 31, RES: 43.7, QUAL: 36.0)—Classic bubble resume: no great wins; no remotely bad losses.
Second-to-Last In: Kentucky Wildcats (7-4, NET: 27, RES: 74.3, QUAL: 19.7)—Back in for now, but Pitino clash still looms large.
Last Team In: Indiana Hoosiers (8-3, NET: 26, RES: 61.0, QUAL: 20.3)—That strong 7-0 start is feeling like a lifetime ago.
***Cut Line***
First Team Out: Butler Bulldogs (8-2, NET: 43, RES: 45.3, QUAL: 51.0)—Right on the cusp after two overtime thriller vs. Providence.
Second Team Out: Virginia Tech Hokies (10-2, NET: 58, RES: 33.0, QUAL: 65.0)—One of 14 teams with at least four Q2 wins.
Third Team Out: Oklahoma Sooners (7-3, NET: 50, RES: 42.3, QUAL: 45.3)—Suddenly in the mix after ending a rival's undefeated campaign.
Fourth Team Out: Colorado Buffaloes (9-1, NET: 47, RES: 29.7, QUAL: 70.7)—Wake us up when they face a projected tournament team.
Fifth Team Out: Richmond Spiders (9-1, NET: 80, RES: 57.3, QUAL: 103.0)—One of just seven teams undefeated against top two Quads. (Minimum two games played)
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ACC Summary
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7 Teams in the Projected Field: 3. Duke, 11. Louisville, 15. North Carolina, 21. Virginia, 37. SMU, 41. Clemson, 43. Miami
Also Considered: Virginia Tech, California, Notre Dame, NC State
Biggest Development: Clemson blows marquee opportunity in an epic collapse
In the opener of the Jimmy V Classic at Madison Square Garden, Clemson ended the first half of its game against BYU on a 21-0 run, turning what had been a tie game into a resume-bolstering blowout over a top 10 team.
Or so we thought.
AJ Dybantsa had other ideas.
In the entire second half, Clemson scored 21 points and registered three assists, while Dybantsa went for 22 and five by himself, willing the Cougars back into that game. And though it was Robert Wright III who hit the game-winning triple at the buzzer, it was the superstar freshman (and an inability to get anything going on offense in the second half) who did the Tigers in.
Could we come to look back on that collapse as the reason Clemson ultimately misses the dance?
After a subsequent narrow win over Mercer on Saturday, the Tigers are 8-3 overall, but with six home wins that don't count for much of anything. Two close wins over Georgia and West Virginia in the Charleston Classic are the main attractions, and we'll see if either of those end up being wins over teams in the field. Clemson also lost to Georgetown, which is starting to turn into a bit of a bad L.
These last two nonconference games against South Carolina (Tuesday) and Cincinnati (Sunday) might both be must-win affairs.
Big 12 Summary
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11 Teams in the Projected Field: 2. Arizona, 4. Iowa State, 10. BYU, 12. Houston, 14. Kansas, 23. Texas Tech, 27. Baylor, 28. Arizona State, 33. Oklahoma State, 35. UCF, 40. TCU
Also Considered: Colorado
Biggest Development: Arizona State makes wild comeback; Oklahoma State suffers first loss
We already talked about BYU's absurd comeback from a 21-point halftime deficit against Clemson, but Arizona State pulled off something similar Saturday night against Santa Clara.
The Sun Devils trailed 60-41 two minutes into the second half, and head coach Bobby Hurley had already been ejected late in the first half for one of his patented profane tirades.
They had no business mounting a comeback against a pretty good Broncos team, but they went on a 29-6 prolonged run in which Santa Clara could not buy a bucket, going nearly seven minutes without a point. The Broncos had two chances to tie it in the closing seconds, but ASU came away with an 82-79 victory.
The Sun Devils were already just barely in our projected field one week ago, and adding that neutral site victory to previous wins over Texas and Oklahoma pushes them more comfortably into the bracket.
Speaking of facing Oklahoma, though, doing so put an end to Oklahoma State's quest for perfection, losing 85-76 in that Bedlam battle on Saturday.
Putting the Cowboys at No. 21 overall one week ago was, admittedly, a bit aggressive. However, it would've felt wrong to put undefeated Nebraska at No. 20 and not have undefeated Oklahoma State right behind the 'Huskers. Now that the Pokes have suffered a loss, we can start poking holes in a resume devoid of any games against Quad 1 opponents.
Oklahoma State remains in our projected field and will very likely get to 12-1 in the coming weeks against UMKC, Cal St. Fullerton and Bethune-Cookman. This team has a lot to prove in Big 12 play, though.
Big East Summary
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3 Teams in the Projected Field: 5. Connecticut, 20. St. John's, 29. Seton Hall
Also Considered: Butler, Villanova
Biggest Development: Butler wins league opener in dramatic fashion
It was mostly a business-as-has-become-usual week in the Big East.
Connecticut picked up two more strong wins over Florida and Texas, continuing to look like a No. 1 seed while waiting for one of the current projected No. 1 seeds to suffer its first loss of the season.
At the opposite end of the spectrum, we can probably start writing the obituaries on 5-5 Creighton and 5-6 Marquette, the former losing at home to Kansas State while the latter never had so much as a prayer at Purdue.
But there was one noteworthy result when Butler hosted Providence in the first of what will be 110 regular-season matchups between Big East foes.
Both teams got to 110 points in a defense-optional game that was close throughout. It took two overtimes, but the Bulldogs got the win on an Evan Haywood three-pointer late in that second bonus period.
Butler is now 8-2 in advance of a massive opportunity at Connecticut on Tuesday. Even assuming a loss in that game, though, a win over Northwestern on Saturday would be big for a team that is smack dab on the bubble heading into the winter holidays.
One other outcome worth mentioning: Seton Hall finished nonconference play at 10-1 with a 22-point shellacking of Rutgers in that annual Garden State showdown.
The Pirates' lone loss was an 85-83 game against a pretty good USC team in Maui. Shaheen Holloway's bunch also beat NC State on that trip and scored a notable road win over Kansas State two weekends ago.
It will be interesting to see if Seton Hall can back it up in league play, but this has already been an unbelievable bounce back from last year's 7-25 disaster.
Big Ten Summary
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11 Teams in the Projected Field: 1. Michigan, 7. Purdue, 9. Michigan State, 13. Nebraska, 18. Illinois, 22. USC, 26. Ohio State, 38. UCLA, 39. Wisconsin, 42. Iowa, 45. Indiana
Also Considered: Washington
Biggest Development: Nebraska makes two more big time statements
Nebraska's 8-0 start in November felt like a fun little story that wasn't going to matter in the grand scheme of things. After all, the Cornhuskers had one win over a KenPom top 70 team, and had to erase a 16-point deficit against Oklahoma to get that victory. And after starting the season at No. 51 on KenPom, that hot start merely brought them up to No. 47.
But if starting December with a 21-point beatdown of Creighton was a bit of an eye-opener, following it up with a 30-point pummeling of Wisconsin and a road win over Illinois this past week was the equivalent of having our eyelids taped wide open like a cartoon character.
In the former, they completely shut down John Blackwell, who shot 1-for-11 from the field. Meanwhile, the 'Huskers shot 71 percent from inside the arc and had spurts where the Badgers just looked completely helpless.
In the latter, Pryce Sandfort went off for 26 points in the first 16 minutes and they won on a triple at the buzzer by Jamarques Lawrence.
These days, that KenPom ranking is much more impressive, up into the top 20 behind an offense that occasionally masquerades as a freight train.
They'll finish out December with what should be blowout wins over North Dakota and New Hampshire before hosting Michigan State on Jan. 2—in a game the Cornhuskers are presently projected to win. That speaks volumes to how impressive this team has been thus far.
SEC Summary
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9 Teams in the Projected Field: 8. Vanderbilt, 16. Arkansas, 17. Alabama, 19. Tennessee, 24. Florida, 25. Auburn, 30. Georgia, 36. LSU, 44. Kentucky
Also Considered: Oklahoma
Biggest Development: Reigning champs drop another one
The last time Florida won a national championship, it missed the dance altogether the following season.
Could history be repeating itself?
All the predictive metrics still adore the Gators, with BPI, KenPom and Torvik each ranking the reigning champs as a top-20 team. And if seeding was based entirely on the average of the six metrics (aside from NET) on the team sheets, the Gators would be sitting pretty as a high No. 5 seed.
At some point, though, this resume needs to become more than just close losses to good teams, right?
The Gators fell by six on opening night to Arizona, lost by one at Duke and lost by four to Connecticut this past week. No shame whatsoever in any of those individual outcomes. However, things start to get less acceptable once you pair all three of those results with a loss to TCU as part of a 6-4 start in which the best win a neutral-site victory over bubble-y Miami.
Florida is still somewhat comfortably in the projected field, but its seed is definitely slipping as we wait on the predictive metrics to manifest a truly quality win. And that win will have to wait until at least January, as the Gators wrap up nonconference play with home games against Saint Francis, Colgate and Dartmouth.
Mid-Majors Summary (A10, AAC, MVC, MWC, WCC)
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6 Teams in the Projected Field: 6. Gonzaga, 31. Utah State, 32. Saint Mary's, 34. Saint Louis, 46. Tulsa, 50. Belmont
Also Considered: Richmond, New Mexico, Santa Clara, George Mason, Colorado State, Boise State
Biggest Development: Rough week in the A-10's quest for multiple bids
Saint Louis held serve atop the A-10, improving to 9-1 with a solid home win over San Francisco. The Billikens are top-55 in all of the metrics and have put together a solid at-large resume.
As for the rest of the A-10, though...
VCU fell to 6-4 overall (and 2-4 vs. top 200 competition) with a home loss to New Mexico on Wednesday. The 18-point win over Virginia Tech in the third-place game of the Battle 4 Atlantis was a good one, but that's not much of a flag in which to plant a case for a bid. Barring something like a 16-2 (or better) run through league play, the Rams are probably going to be in "auto bid or bust" territory.
Same goes for George Washington, which lost to both Florida (no harm done) and Delaware (yikes) in the past seven days. The Revolutionaries were already a long shot for an at-large bid, but they had "got to at least look at the resume" metrics a week ago. That's no longer the case.
St. Bonaventure had been 10-1 with merely a neutral-site game against North Carolina in the loss column, but the Bonnies fell in overtime to Ohio on Saturday and never had anything close to a great win in the first place. If they don't win at VCU on New Year's Eve, we can probably safely toss them in the "auto bid or bust" bin, too.
At least George Mason improved to 10-1 with a win over Old Dominion, but only after blowing what had been a 23-point lead in the first half. The Patriots have no Quad 1 or Quad 2 wins to speak of and will need to put in some serious work in A-10 play to become a real at-large threat.
Other 21 Leagues Summary
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21 Teams in the Projected Field: 47. McNeese, 48. Yale, 49. UC San Diego, 51. Akron, 52. Utah Valley, 53. High Point, 54. Hofstra, 55. Sam Houston State, 56. Quinnipiac, 57. Northern Colorado, 58. East Tennessee State, 59. North Dakota State, 60. Marshall, 61. Lipscomb, 62. Oakland, 63. Colgate, 64. Tennessee Martin, 65. Central Connecticut, 66. Bethune Cookman, 67. Vermont, 68. Norfolk State
Also Considered: N/A
Biggest Development: Hofstra does it again
Using the criteria mentioned in the intro, the CAA's projected champion technically should be UNC-Wilmington.
However, while the 10-1 Seahawks have feasted on one of the weakest schedules in the entire country, Hofstra went out and won a road game against an ACC team for the second time in as many weeks. And the Pride are close enough in the metrics to UNC-W that an exception to the rule seems to be in order here.
We discussed their win at Pitt in this space one week ago, and they kicked it up a notch this past week for an actually impressive 70-69 win at Syracuse.
Once again, Cruz Davis was the star of the show for Hofstra, going for 22 points and nine assists, including setting up the game-winning three-pointer by German Plotnikov. As a team, the Pride shot 12-for-18 from downtown in handing the Orange what was by far their worst loss of the season to date.
We said it last week and we'll say it again: If Hofstra wins the CAA and makes it into the dance for the first time since Jay Wright was coaching there in 2001, remember the name Cruz Davis. He could be the shining star of a Cinderella story.
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