Why 12 Goals Is a Realistic Aim for Liverpool's Daniel Sturridge in 2015/16 EPL

Amid all the talk of Liverpool's new-look attack this summer, following the arrivals of Christian Benteke and Roberto Firmino, there is one player whose future becomes less clear: Daniel Sturridge.

The 25-year-old forward missed most of last season with numerous injuries, and the surgery he underwent in May means he'll miss the start of the new campaign.

Reports in May suggested that Sturridge would return from hip surgery in September, meaning it won't be until October that he's available for first-team action again. "It could be mid-to-late October before Sturridge is available for Brendan Rodgers’ team again," wrote the Guardian's Andy Hunter.

PhysioRoom have October 15 as an expected return date. Full, match fitness won't be for another month after that. 

Sturridge's return will create some interesting questions for Rodgers. In the meantime, the England international has become somewhat of a forgotten man at Anfield.

"It is a strange situation," explains the Liverpool Echo's Kristian Walsh. "After supporters—and, in truth, the team—spent a large part of last season waiting for him to rise from the treatment table and continue his goal-a-minute scoring rate, he's become the forgotten striker of the club."

Forty goals in 67 games for Liverpool, Walsh outlines, is the reason that Sturridge remains the club's best striker despite his injury issues.

Return

Without Sturridge for the start of the new season, Rodgers is expected to deploy Benteke as the centre-forward, probably in a 4-3-3 formation, with the Brazilian duo of Philippe Coutinho and Firmino in support.

Mark Thompson/Getty Images

When Sturridge does return, the boss will surely look to pair Sturridge and Benteke up front—meaning a probable change to the 4-4-2 midfield diamond adopted during the latter stages of 2013/14 in order to get the best from Sturridge and Luis Suarez.

Adopting the diamond shape does create an ideal position for Coutinho as the No. 10 playmaker behind the front two—but the question of how Firmino fits into such a lineup becomes apparent.

Rodgers could drop Coutinho deeper into the midfield three, alongside Jordan Henderson and James Milner, with Firmino at the attacking point of the diamond—an exciting, but seemingly defensively vulnerable lineup.

These are good problems for Rodgers to have to address further into the season.

Before a partnership can be formed between Benteke and Sturridge, the returning forward will need to find match fitness, and the Europa League will provide the perfect opportunity to do so.

Richard Heathcote/Getty Images

Matchday 3 of the group stages arrives in late October and that could well be an ideal match for the former Chelsea forward to make his first start back. November sees two more Europa games, surrounded by tough Premier League fixtures at Chelsea and Manchester City. That means Rodgers could keep Benteke fresh for those league fixtures and ease Sturridge back in the Europa encounters.

Perhaps, then, we'll be looking more toward December and the busy Christmas fixtures before Sturridge is back playing and starting regularly in the Premier League. This, of course, means his goals target for the league campaign will be hugely affected as such.

Goals Target

After signing for Liverpool in January 2013, Sturridge managed an admirable 10 Premier League goals in the second half of the season, netting a hat-trick at Fulham and a double at Newcastle United. A similar post-January haul would be a realistic aim for the second half of the 2015/16 season.

Alex Livesey/Getty Images

The following season, his first full season with the club, Sturridge hit 21 Premier League goals—beginning the campaign with three goals in three 1-0 wins in succession and continuing that form throughout the season as the Reds went on an unexpected and goal-laden title push.

The succession of injuries last season meant he scored only four league goals, one being against West Ham United on his initial return from injury in January. That was a time when supporters hoped he would reproduce the form of the previous campaign and his first six months at the club.

Given that Sturridge will feature from the bench—provided he recovers from the latest surgery—in October/November time, and likely be rotated with Benteke over the festive fixtures, he has plenty of opportunity to add some goals to his tally before January.

With the Europa League involvement, plus domestic cup competitions, it wouldn't be unrealistic to expect Sturridge to hit 20 goals or more in all competitions.

But given his injury status and the time it may take to get fully match fit, plus the time to create a partnership with Benteke, 12 goals in the Premier League would be a realistic aim for Sturridge in 2015/16.