Daily Fantasy Football 2015: Predicting Top DraftKings Quarterback Projections

Analysts often encourage seasonal fantasy football drafters to wait on quarterbacks, stockpiling players at skill positions instead. Those shifting to daily fantasy contests will need to reconsider that mindset.

The thinking in standard leagues goes that, despite a signal-caller's vast importance, there are enough high-quality options for everyone to share. Rather than investing a third-round pick on Peyton Manning, gamers can snag Eli Manning four or five rounds later and watch him chuck bombs in Odell Beckham Jr.'s general vicinity all year.

DFS, however, requires different strategies depending on the contest. Yearly drafters are playing to win, so they'll eschew the safety of a star quarterback and instead maximize upside. In guaranteed prize pools (GPP), large tournaments where only a small percentage of contestants win, this philosophy holds up. If only 20 percent of the field profits, it makes more sense to take a chance on the younger Manning avoiding a three-interception meltdown.

In cash contests (50/50 pools, double-ups, head-to-head bouts), don't be shy about paying for a top quarterback given a great matchup. Even if Aaron Rodgers doesn't have a monster game, he'll rarely sink a lineup with a complete dud.

It's a bit early to break down the Week 1 slate, so let's take a complete look at 2015's top projected fantasy quarterbacks for DraftKings purposes.

Scoring

Gregory Payan/Associated Press

Before projecting the season's top quarterbacks, it helps to know how they're scored. Per DraftKings.com, here's a look at the site's official point distribution:

• Passing TD = +4PTs
• 25 Passing Yards = +1PT (+0.04PT per yard is awarded)
• 300+ Yard Passing Game = +3PTs
• Interception = -1PT
• 10 Rushing Yards = +1PT (+0.1PT per yard is awarded)
• Rushing TD = +6PTs
• 100+ Yard Rushing Game = +3PTs
• Fumble Lost = -1PT
• 2 Point Conversion (Pass, Run, or Catch) = +2PTs

The 100-plus rushing yards inclusion may seem unnecessary, but Russell Wilson scooped up three extra points during a trio of 2014 contests. While mobile quarterbacks get an edge with four points per passing touchdown, high-volume gunslingers make it up with the 300-yard bonus. 

A one-point penalty for all turnovers means gamers shouldn't back away from a risky passer against a vulnerable opponent. One or two picks won't soil an otherwise noteworthy performance.

Honorable Mentions

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers

Ben Roethlisberger missed the top five by the narrowest of margins, making him a comfortable No. 6. Last year, he shattered career highs in passing yards (4,952), attempts (608) and completion percentage (67.1). While back-to-back six-touchdown outbursts may have skewed the data, it showed how dangerous this offense is with Le'Veon Bell, Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant and Markus Wheaton. 

Tom Brady, New England Patriots

DFS players don't need to bother with the cost-benefit analysis of receiving a dozen games from Tom Brady and four from a replacement-level filler. When he's on the field, the New England Patriots passer remains one of the most gifted quarterbacks around. After an underwhelming September, he tossed 39 touchdowns in 15 games, including a monstrous postseason.

Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys

Despite leading the NFL in completion percentage (69.9) and yards per attempt (8.52), Tony Romo ($7,300 for Week 1) wasn't a top-tier fantasy quarterback due to DeMarcus Murray's unfathomable workload. With the star running back gone, Romo should fire closer to his 568 attempts averaged from 2011-13 rather than the meager 435 throws tallied last season.

Sam Bradford, Philadelphia Eagles 

At $6,900, placing him below Matthew Stafford and Colin Kaepernick ($7,000 each), Sam Bradford will be a very popular Week 1 selection against the Atlanta Falcons, last year's worst passing defense. If Mark Sanchez can average 268.7 passing yards and 7.83 yards per attempt for Chip Kelly, the Philadelphia Eagles head coach can turn a healthy Bradford into a worthwhile fantasy starter. Just don't bank on him playing 16 games. 

5. Peyton Manning, QB, Denver Broncos

David Zalubowski/Associated Press

For arguably the greatest quarterback of all time, a No. 5 ranking seems like a slap to the face. While other rankers still prefer Peyton Manning over Russell Wilson and Drew Brees, 19 of 100 analysts placed him outside the position's top five on FantasyPros.

Everyone still remember him tossing lame ducks in the playoffs, which came three weeks after a four-interception debacle versus the Cincinnati Bengals. Still, the main reason to fear the future Hall of Famer is the Denver Broncos' redistribution of wealth late in the season.

Following a Week 1 loss to the St. Louis Rams during which Manning threw 54 passes, he averaged 31.6 attempts per game over the final six regular-season contests. Meanwhile, C.J. Anderson received 23.3 handoffs per bout during that stretch.

New head coach Gary Kubiak only fuels fantasy fears over Denver shifting to a more run-heavy attack. The Baltimore Ravens rated No. 17 in passing attempts last year with him running the offense, and he leaned heavily on Arian Foster with the Houston Texans.

Then again, he never had Manning under center. This is a case of getting bored by greatness. The 39-year-old legend didn't shatter any records last year, and he won't this season, either. But he doesn't need 55 touchdowns to keep everyone's attention. A tame 35 to 40 will fare just fine.

The daily confines makes it easier for participants to manage any skepticism. Those worried about the bottom falling out can fade Manning Week 1 ($8,200). If the five-time MVP looks like his usual self, don't take too long to bury those concerns.

Projections: 4,600 Pass YDs, 37 TDs, 13 INTs (21.2 DK PPG)

4. Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints

Brian Blanco/Associated Press

Drew Brees' down year really wasn't bad.

A step down for the New Orleans Saints star signifies only registering 4,952 passing yards and 33 touchdowns with a 69.2 completion percentage. His disappointing campaign essentially matched Ben Roethlisberger's superb revival, except with eight more picks.

Brees is typically turnover-prone due to his high usage, but interceptions always fluctuate. Since 2009, his interception tally has taken turns decreasing and increasing by at least five. Besides, DraftKings gamers will take 17 picks from someone who has attempted more than 650 passes in each of the past five seasons.

Losing Jimmy Graham undoubtedly hurts, but Brees morphed into a fantasy fiend before the star tight end arrived on Bourbon Street. Gaining pass-catching back C.J. Spiller and wideout Brandin Cooks for a full year will provide the veteran enough explosive targets to flourish in Sean Payton's pass-happy attack.

Playing the schedule game in August is always dangerous, but oh boy. Along with getting six bouts against the anemic NFC South, New Orleans gets the NFC East and AFC South. Throw in a Week 1 showdown against the Arizona Cardinals, for which he costs $8,000, and a dozen adversaries ranked below No. 15 in opposing passing yards per attempt last season.

Rather than preparing Brees' obituary, look for him to chase his fifth career 5,000-yard season.

Projections: 4,850 Pass YDs, 34 Pass TDs, 15 INTs, 1 Rush TD, 21.9 DK PPG

3. Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks

David Goldman/Associated Press

Although he remains steps below the top two, Russell Wilson vaulted into the next tier of top-flight fantasy quarterbacks last season. Despite orchestrating a run-first Seattle Seahawks attack, he'll remain a premium. Priced at $7,800 for Week 1's matchup against the St. Louis Rams, he's the position's fifth-most expensive choice despite a challenging matchup.

Year by year, Pete Carroll gives his young leader more responsibility. His pass attempts have risen every season, up to 452 in 2014. That's still not great in a league where 14 passers amounted at least 520 throws. Drew Brees completed 456 passes.

Wilson amassed 849 yards on the ground, the equivalent of 2,122 passing yards under DraftKings scoring. His rushing scores also count the same as nine passing touchdowns, leading him to more points per game (21.9) than everyone behind Andrew Luck (23.7) and Aaron Rodgers (23.4).

Seattle's ground-and-pound style often covers the fact that no team successfully goes deep with such frequency. Wilson led all passers with completions of more than 20 (17) and 40 (3) yards, per NFL.com. When the Seahawks throw, they make it count.

Now if only the newly paid 26-year-old had a better weapon to keep stretching the field and finishing in the red zone. How about Jimmy Graham? He's pretty good. The star tight end's change in scenery keeps Wilson ahead of Brees.

Projections: 3,725 Pass YDs, 25 Pass TDs, 9 INTs, 700 Rush YDs, 5 Rush TDs, 22.1 DK PPG

2. Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts

Matt Slocum/Associated Press

Several gamers will prefer Andrew Luck in the top spot, and that's just fine. Living every bit up to the lofty hype, the former No. 1 pick accumulated 4,761 passing yards and 40 passing touchdowns for the Indianapolis Colts last year.

After finishing his sophomore season with 6.71 yards per attempt, he upped the rate to 7.73, impressive for someone who tossed 616 passes. Over the season's first dozen games, he exceeded 300 passing yards 10 times.

About those other games. While his predecessor, Peyton Manning, is receiving plenty of scrutiny for his late falloff, Luck has slipped through the cracks unscathed. During his last seven games, including the postseason, he looked more like an erratic newcomer than a superstar.

Luck's Final Seven Games: 137-of-245 (55.9 percent), 1,517 Pass Yards (216.7/GM), 10 TDs, 9 INTs

That small sample size is hardly reason to steer clear. He's still operating one the league's most lucrative offenses, which added Frank Gore and Andre Johnson during the offseason. But he showed just enough vulnerability to keep him from seizing the quarterback throne, especially with a reliable superstar doing his thing in Wisconsin.

Projections: 4,700 Pass YDs, 35 Pass TDs, 14 INTs, 300 Rush YDs, 3 Rush TDs (24.1 DK PPG)

1. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

Mike Roemer/Associated Press

As long as he stays healthy, Aaron Rodgers will finish a top-two quarterback worth a weekly look in cash contests. Such stability and efficiency gives him the top spot, even if Andrew Luck carries a higher ceiling.

Daily players don't need to labor over this conundrum. In Week 1, Rodgers ($8,600) is the obvious choice against the Chicago Bears, whom he shelled for 617 combined yards and 10 touchdowns last year. Luck ($8,300), meanwhile, combats the Buffalo Bills during defensive guru Rex Ryan's debut as their head coach. But if they're evenly priced with similar matchups one week, go with Rodgers to minimize risk.

While he rated as the second-best fantasy quarterback by a slight margin, Rodgers remains the efficiency king. According to Pro-Football-Reference.com, he finished first in net yards per passing attempt (7.68) and interception percentage (1.0), placing second in quarterback rating and yards per attempt behind the always-underrated Tony Romo. 

His raw tallies are just fine, too, as nobody can knock 4,381 passing yards and 40 total touchdowns. Randall Cobb will return alongside Jordy Nelson, Eddie Lacy and the emerging Davante Adams, once again making the Green Bay Packers an offensive juggernaut.

Only an injury (and perhaps the Legion of Boom) can derail the reigning MVP, and that simply means daily gamers allot their budget elsewhere. There's rarely a week when Rodgers represents a bad choice.

Projections: 4,450 Pass YDs, 40 Pass TDs, 7 INTs, 220 Rush YDs, 2 Rush TDs (24.2 DK PPG)

Pricing information and scoring data obtained from DraftKings.com.

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