What Will Be Manchester United's Strongest Defence in the 2015/16 Season?
For those who have followed Louis van Gaal's infamous end-of-season awards speech instruction and paid attention to their manager, the identity of three of Manchester United's starting back four against Tottenham Hotspur on August 8 have already been revealed.
Luke Shaw and Matteo Darmian have done enough on United's pre-season tour of the U.S. to ensure they have the two full-back positions locked down. That should remain the case for the majority of the season. I wrote about why Darmian should be preferred to Antonio Valencia, but the argument can be boiled down to "because he is a proper right-back."
TOP NEWS
Madrid Fines Players $590K 😲
'Mbappé Out' Petition Gaining Steam 😳
Star-Studded World Cup Ad 🤩
Van Gaal has been full of praise for Shaw, going so far as to suggest that 2015/16 "shall be the season of Shaw," per the Mirror.
Thus, barring injuries or significant drop-offs in form, both full-back positions are well taken care of. The strongest choice for each role seems pretty clear.
What is much less clear is how well United are taken care of at centre-back and, indeed, who the strongest choices are for both spots. Van Gaal clearly thinks of the left- and right-sided centre-back spots as two distinct positions, requiring, if at all possible, a left-footer-right-footer partnership. Last season, there were only brief spells when he abandoned this approach.
The contenders for the two spots would have appeared to be Chris Smalling, Phil Jones, Marcos Rojo and Jonny Evans, with Paddy McNair and possibly Tyler Blackett providing emergency cover. Of course, Van Gaal being Van Gaal, it is none of those who is the third member of the back four the manager has announced will be starting against Spurs.
Rather, it is Daley Blind. It is an entirely counterintuitive decision from Van Gaal to select his compatriot for the left-centre-back berth. The received wisdom about United's defence was it was missing a commanding, experienced leader. Fans longed for a Nemanja Vidic type who could once again make facing United a scary prospect for opponents.
Van Gaal, though, sees things differently. He wants Blind in there not to terrorise opposing centre-forwards but to make good use of the ball and to provide an extra man in midfield. Thus, thinking about United's strongest centre-back pairing in conventional terms is probably a recipe for disappointment.
Van Gaal's stated priorities are concerned with what his defenders contribute when United have the ball, as much as, if not more than, when they do not.
From the above list of conventional centre-backs, Smalling seemed to have risen to the top of the pecking order last season. By the end of the campaign, he was drawing compliments for his leadership. He is also steady in possession, with a highly respectable 88.6 per cent pass-completion rate in the league, per WhoScored.com.
Of course, pass completion is not the be-all and end-all of possession. Perhaps Van Gaal's decision to partner Blind with Jones during pre-season is influenced by Jones' willingness to carry the ball out of defence in a more direct fashion than Smalling or Jones' history of playing the occasional game in midfield.
From a purely defensive perspective, it seemed an odd choice. Jones' defensive frailties were in evidence in the International Champions Cup game against Paris Saint-Germain, and it was after that performance Van Gaal said the right-centre-back spot was still up for grabs.
Given it can be reasonably assumed that Blind will struggle with some of the defensive aspects of the role, then Smalling seems a more logical partner. In particular, Smalling's presence adds aerial ability. Opposition managers will surely identify aerial deliveries as a vulnerability in a Jones-Blind partnership.
As for the other contenders, Rojo should be next in line for consideration. Indeed, before pre-season began, working on the assumption United did not bring in an additional centre-half, it was a partnership of Smalling and Rojo that looked best-suited of the current crop. That met the right-footer-left-footer requirement. Both are comfortable enough on the ball to begin attacks.
Both are fairly solid defensively, although perhaps Rojo tends toward the overly aggressive and would require cover from his full-backs and partner on those occasions when charging in did not quell danger.
Of course, the Argentinian has not had a proper pre-season thanks to his participation in the Copa America. In the meantime, Van Gaal appears to have decided on Blind. Once Rojo is up to speed, though, it will be intriguing to see if Van Gaal turns to him. Perhaps that will depend on how well Blind does in the first few games of the season.
Both Evans and McNair would appear to be back-up options for now. Of the two Northern Irishmen, it will be McNair who is happier with that state of affairs. His promotion into the first-team picture last season was a surprise. Evans, though, appears to have fallen down a pecking order he would have at one time been expected to top.
Having served his apprenticeship alongside Vidic and Rio Ferdinand, he seemed the heir apparent. The past two seasons, though, have seen him battling repeated injuries and rarely recovering his form. It is hard to see him being part of United's strongest defensive partnership.
In truth, none of the partnerships that can be built from United's existing crop of centre-backs would seem entirely reliable, especially if Van Gaal prizes ability on the ball to such an extent he is prepared to sacrifice central-defensive experience to achieve it.
While the transfer window is still open, hope remains that the commanding, experienced centre-half missing from United's squad will be brought in. Presumably, his ability on the ball will also be part of the criteria for their purchase.
United should be prepared to break the bank if they can acquire such an all-rounder. Looking at United's squad as a whole, while there are still a couple of uncertainties in attack, it is the heart of defense where there are the most unanswered questions.
Can Blind really make it as a Premier League centre-half? Can Jones overcome his positional and decision-making foibles? Can Smalling emerge into the leader he has the potential to be? Can Evans overcome his injury problems and find his form again? Does McNair have what it takes at the top level? Does Van Gaal trust Rojo enough to make him first choice?
United's strongest defence may yet involve someone who is currently employed elsewhere. From the current bunch, Smalling and Rojo seem best-placed to form a partnership based on defensive solidity. Jones and Smalling also have mutually beneficial traits in terms of a partnership—Smalling's aerial ability dovetails nicely with Jones' top-of-the-range line of last-ditch tackles.
Blind is something of a wild card in that no one has seen how well he will work as a centre-back. Van Gaal's decision to play him there is a good example of why attempting to second-guess his decision-making is something of a fool's errand.
His idea of United's strongest defence may be quite different to that of fans, pundits or other managers. His history of success, though, suggests he knows what he is doing. Ultimately, United's strongest defence will be the one that allows Van Gaal's United to play their best football.
While it looks from the outside as if that will involve bringing in someone new, if the manager believes otherwise, it is probably reasonable to trust him. For now, given the existing personnel, that trust requires quite a leap of faith.
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
