San Francisco 49ers: Fantasy Outlooks for Top Skill Position Players
With training camp getting into full flow, and thus real football beginning, it’s also fantasy football draft time. All around the country, people are spending time they should be spending working looking over fantasy rankings and stat projections as they try to figure out who they should take and when.
As a San Francisco 49ers fan, I’m as guilty as the next person of overrating players on “my” team. I wrote so many articles last season about the potential of the 49ers’ passing game that, in my three main leagues, I ended up with at least two of Michael Crabtree, Vernon Davis, Anquan Boldin and Colin Kaepernick. It may not be a surprise that I ended up not winning any of those leagues.
It’s a natural reaction, of course—if you spend all offseason reading about the potential your team will have, you’ll naturally be inclined to try to grab them in your fantasy draft, if for no other reason than to say “I told you so!” when they do well. The flip side, of course, is the potential to see your team go down in flames as all your overdrafted players fail to live up to the offseason hype.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at some of the 49ers’ draftable players in fantasy and try to figure out where you should target them—and whether or not it’s worth it, just to have a couple 49ers on your final roster.
Carlos Hyde
1 of 6
ESPN Stat Projections: 247 rushes; 1,030 yards; 8 touchdowns; 19 receptions; 152 yards
If you’re going to own one 49er in fantasy, make it Hyde. The clear favorite to get the majority of carries in a post-Frank Gore world, Hyde has been hyped all over the internet this offseason. Very hard to bring down—Hyde forced an impressive 25 missed tackles on just 83 carries last season, per PFR—Hyde has been touted as a breakout candidate by nearly everyone you can find. As NFL.com put it, “opportunity + talent = leap."
It’s gotten to the point where the savvy fantasy football player will tap the breaks, if only a little bit. We’re talking about a player with less than 100 career carries here, not an established player. We also have to take into account just how much opportunity he’ll have to make a splash. Matt Maiocco reports that the 49ers are likely to replace Gore with more than one person, making ESPN’s 247-carry prediction a bit optimistic. With Reggie Bush, Kendall Hunter and Mike Davis all in the backfield, the 49ers can afford to move backs around and use different players in different situations.
Even with all that, of course, Hyde is a starting running back in just about every format you can get—just think of him as your second running back rather than your first, and you’ll be alright. He’s not a player you’ll take in the first two rounds but, depending on how quickly backs are hopping off of your board, you’ll want to start looking at Hyde somewhere in the first half of your draft.
I’d consider 800 yards his realistic floor, and he’s a safer pick than someone like the oft-injured Jonathan Stewart, the similarly-inexperienced Joseph Randle or, yes, the aging Frank Gore. He’s being drafted around pick number 40 right now, which is on the high end of reasonable.
Take Him: Rounds 3-7
Anquan Boldin
2 of 6
ESPN Stat Projections: 65 receptions, 794 yards, three touchdowns
At some point, Anquan Boldin is going to age. It has to happen; that’s just physics. He certainly hasn’t shown any signs of it the past couple years—in San Francisco, he’s been an 80-reception, 1,050+ yard, five touchdown or more player in both seasons. It’s almost a fountain of youth that he’s found; very few players have arguably their best NFL seasons at age 33.
The reason Boldin’s able to keep performing at a high level is because his game was never predicated on speed. It’s been about toughness and body control. He’s never been a highlight-reel player, but rather a steady producer, year in and year out.
ESPN seems to be projecting a drop-off from a combination of age and the addition of Torrey Smith, but I disagree whole-heartedly. I think the addition of Smith is going to force defenders further downfield, leaving more room for Boldin to work underneath. I think that will be enough to offset Boldin’s natural aging curve for one more season at least, and he’ll still be Kaepernick’s favorite receiver. That makes him a solid second wide receiver in most formats.
Boldin’s average draft position has been rising, per Fantasy Football Calculator, but he’s still in the 120s. That makes him the biggest steal you can get out of 49ers, because I really think he’s going to top 1,000 yards, 80 receptions and five touchdowns for the third straight season. He’s got more risk than a younger player like Julian Edelman, Jeremy Maclin or Golden Tate, but he also has the possibility of higher rewards.
Take Him: Towards Rounds 8-9, but he’s worth Round 5-6
Colin Kaepernick
3 of 6
ESPN Stat Projections: 3,527 passing yards; 15 TDs, 9 interceptions; 625 rushing yards, 3 TDs
Here’s the $64,000 question for both your fantasy team and the 49ers—will Kaepernick’s two-year slide reverse itself, or is he on a pathway to bottoming out entirely? Your answer to that question will describe when, how and if you should consider drafting him.
Put aside the normal camp talk that he’s looking more refined and showing better touch, as Matt Maiocco reports. Those stories can be found for nearly any player in the league—if you take those reports at face value, nearly every player in the league is better this year than they were last year, and every rookie is going to break out. It’s the time for massive optimism everywhere, and those reports should be taken with massive grains of salt.
Here is something to keep in mind, though. If you believe the 49ers, as a unit, are going to be worse than they were in Jim Harbaugh’s best years, that means they’ll be trailing more. If they’re trailing more, they’ll need to pass more. With that in mind, I think ESPN’s projection of Kaepernick’s yardage is about right, but you can bump the touchdowns and interceptions up more—they’ll have to go for some more high-risk, high-reward plays to stay competitive.
Then, you add in Kaepernick’s rushing. Kaepernick’s one rushing touchdown from last year almost has to be a fluke; quarterbacks with his rushing attempts and yardage generally put up more than that. If we’re talking about passing alone, Kaepernick shouldn’t start for your fantasy team, but, like Russell Wilson and Cam Newton, Kaepernick’s rushing ability makes him significantly more viable.
Here’s my bottom line—you can probably get Kaepernick cheap. His ADP at the moment is in the 140s, but I don’t think there’s 140 fantasy players better than him in most formats. He’s a starter—albeit a bad one—for me in deeper leagues, but you don’t need to spend starter-type draft picks on him.
You could spend time pumping up all your other positions, and take Kaepernick and, say, Robert Griffin late and have a high-risk, high-reward quarterback duo boosted by the top running backs and receivers in your league. Or, you could spend a mid-round pick on someone like Ryan Tannehill and play the matchup game with him and Kaepernick, slotting in whoever has the easier opponent that weak.
I do think Kaepernick will bounce back, both in general and thanks to the team being trailing more in 2015, so he’s a steal if you get him in the double-digit rounds, which is where he’s being drafted right now. He’s being taken behind the suspended Tom Brady, Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Bradford and Carson Palmer at the moment. When you see those names starting to come off the board, grab Kaepernick; he’s the most underrated quarterback in fantasy football, in my opinion.
Pick Him: No earlier than the middle of your draft, but keep an eye out starting in Rounds 7 or 8 to see when a run of subpar quarterbacks are going.
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Torrey Smith
4 of 6
ESPN Stat Projections: 57 receptions, 943 yards, four touchdowns
The last 49er who should be drafted in pretty much every league, Smith is not someone who I think should be a starting receiver for your team, unless you’re playing in a very deep league with an excessive amount of starting receivers.
I think that despite believing he’ll reach the end zone a few more times than ESPN projects, and despite Kaepernick having the sort of big arm that can get the most use out of a deep receiver like Smith. There are two reasons why I’m not plugging Smith right into my fantasy starting lineups.
First of all, I don’t think he’ll be the primary receiver for the 49ers; I think that will still be Boldin. Smith will demand attention and draw people downfield, but that’s not as much use if the passes keep going to Boldin underneath.
Secondly, one of Smith’s best skills gives you zero fantasy points. Last year, Smith drew 11 defensive pass interference calls for 229 yards, the most in the NFL by 100 yards. Opposing defenders were left with the choice to either let Smith make a catch and possibly turn it into a touchdown, or mug him and “only” give up the pass interference yardage. It’s not a one-year fluke, either—he drew six for 93 yards in 2013 and five for 78 the year before that. He’s that difficult to cover. By comparison, all 49ers receivers last year got just six flags.
Obviously, a big defensive pass interference penalty is good news for the offense, even if it sometimes prevents a touchdowns—it’s a big chunk of yardage that you don’t have to worry about your receiver dropping. For your fantasy team, however, it’s nothing. That’s at least 22.9 points, in most scoring systems, left on the floor—and likely a lot more, as Smith lost the opportunity to turn the ball upfield.
Because I’m high on Kaepernick, I’m probably a little higher on Smith than most people, but honestly, his 118th average draft position feels like a solid enough number to me. If I’m taking a receiver late in the draft, I might gamble on a young player with a great quarterback like Davante Adams, but Smith should be solid enough for a bye-week filler and occasional spot start.
Pick Him: In the double-digit rounds of your draft.
Reggie Bush
5 of 6
ESPN Stat Projections: 61 rushes, 263 yards, one touchdown, 36 receptions, 304 yards, one touchdown
These last two players are for decently deep leagues only—more than ten teams, or leagues with deeper benches than standard. Their stat lines could be useful in the right situations, but there are enough players who will be better at their positions to make them flyers late in a draft, rather than surefire starters.
Bush has brought with him a lot of optimism about the screen game and things like that. A pass-catching back out of the backfield does wonders for a quarterback with issues reading defenses—flexing him out will force defenses to show what they’re doing, coverage-wise.
However, this isn’t the Reggie Bush from USC, or even the one from Miami—this is a 30-year-old coming off of an ankle injury that sapped him of some of his mobility. That’s going to limit his effectiveness. If you’re high on Hyde, as most people seem to be, you should be similarly low on Bush—Hyde’s carries and opportunities come at the expense of Bush’s numbers.
I think he will end up with 100-120 carries, but he’s going to be a marginal, change of pace back, and not a focal point of the 49ers offense. I’m seeing him drafted between the 10th and 12th rounds, and that feels at least a round too early, if not more.
Stash him on your bench as you see how the 49ers’ running back situation is split, but don’t expect the world out of Bush.
Draft Him: Late, in rounds 11-13
Vernon Davis
6 of 6
ESPN Stat Projections: 45 receptions, 587 yards, three touchdowns
Hrm. I have the opportunity to take a tight end who fell off of a cliff last season, plummeting to a miserable 245 yards on just 26 receptions. He’s aging—at 31 years old, only Jason Witten and Heath Miller are older and liable to get a decent chunk of playing time at the position. He’s no longer the deep threat, with Torrey Smith added to the team. The team will also likely use more three-receiver sets as Bruce Ellington and/or Quinton Patton continue to develop.
His team just drafted two more tight ends, for a total of eight on the roster. So, if Davis gets off to another slow start, there’re plenty of players behind him vying for playing time. He’s also at an age where, when players’ production falls off a cliff, it tends not to bounce back.
You know, I’ll be generous, and say he’ll double his production from last season—that is, nearly 50 receptions for 490 yards and six touchdowns. You know what? That’s still not good enough to make a spot on my roster, really.
Based on Davis’ history of performance, he’s probably more worth a flyer of a pick than, say, Rob Housler or Niles Paul. But don’t spend anything more than your last pick on him, and be prepared to drop him very quickly—you’re gambling on a Lazarus-type resurrection, which simply is unlikely to happen.
Draft Him: As a flyer after all your key positions and backups are set—a lottery ticket, as it were.
Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers. Follow him @BryKno on twitter.
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