Rumored Trae Young Trade Would Signify a Bigger Blockbuster To Come
When NBA reporter Marc Stein broke the news that the Washington Wizards had emerged as a legitimate trade destination for Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young, and that CJ McCollum's expiring $30 million contract could be the centerpiece of the return, it seemed a little strange.
Had the 27-year-old's value fallen so far that cap flexibility was an acceptable return? Was it really possible Atlanta would need to include picks to entice the Wizards into dealing?
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Atlanta has its reasons to shop Young, not the least of which is its superior play without him this season. There's also the looming specter of the $49 million player option he holds for 2026-27, which could result in the Hawks losing him for nothing.
While his disappointing play over the last couple of years suggests he's more likely than not to pick up that option, the Hawks may not have been comfortable with either outcome—Young leaving or Young coming back.
What if there's something else afoot, though? What if the Hawks intend a potential Young trade to be only the first step in a more significant overhaul? What if trading their starriest name of the past several years is a means to acquiring a marquee replacement like Anthony Davis or Giannis Antetokounmpo?
Given the hypothetical options that would stem from a Young trade, it feels like something bigger is going on here.
Re-Routing McCollum in a 3-Teamer
McCollum is a better shooter than Young and a reasonable replacement for him in a lineup that redirects on-ball reps to Jalen Johnson and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. That said, he might have more value to Atlanta if he never plays for the Hawks at all.
The simplest way for a Young trade to deliver a big name would be to expand the deal with Washington to send McCollum and other assets elsewhere.
McCollum's $30 million salary can't be aggregated by the Hawks and used in a larger, unrelated trade unless they make other moves ahead of time to wind up under the salary cap when McCollum arrives. That would be possible but difficult and might cost the Hawks assets they want to use for other purposes.
The wiser course would be to expand the deal so McCollum lands on a third team, Young goes to Washington and all parties involved do enough money matching to allow a big name to come to Atlanta—like Davis.
Savings Lead to a Star
Three-team deals can be tricky, and there's a way for Atlanta to more simply parlay a Trae-for-CJ trade into a superstar acquisition.
Kristaps Porziņģis, Asa Newell and Luke Kennard combine to match the money necessary to onboard Davis, and attaching picks could entice the Mavericks to make a move. But that trade would add just under $10 million to Atlanta's books, thrusting it into the luxury tax. The Hawks are about $5.5 million under that threshold now and would surely like to stay there if possible.
Good news: they can. And in this construction, 2024 No. 1 pick Zaccharie Risacher doesn't have to be involved.
If the Hawks ship Young to Washington, they could take back a package of McCollum, AJ Johnson and Cam Whitmore, saving about $8.7 million in salary this year. That would allow them to separately make the above deal with the Mavericks for Davis without entering the tax.
Framed that way, Atlanta's ability to swing a trade for a star making $54 million (which describes both Davis and Antetokounmpo) depends on the salary reduction that would come from trading Young for a package centered around McCollum.
The Value of Certainty
Let's circle back to Young's player option, which could weigh heavily on Atlanta's grander plans.
The Hawks can't realistically build their next contending team with the uncertainty of Young's option decision hanging over them. By sending him out now, they gain clarity and the ability to replace his $49 million in 2026-27 salary with a slightly larger but totally certain number.
Davis and Antetokounmpo are both eligible for extensions this summer, but they're also under guaranteed contracts for 2026-27. That's a full extra year of cost certainty compared to Young. And if Atlanta finds itself in a similar situation this time next season—with its new star becoming a flight risk during the summer of 2027—at least it will have gotten a year of results to judge.
Young's time is up in Atlanta, and that's partly because several members of its developing core, led by Johnson, appear good enough to chase present success without him. Though it's been difficult to find a one-for-one deal that turns Young into another high-salaried star who'd serve Atlanta's win-now goals, workarounds are all over the place.
McCollum might seem like an underwhelming return, but that's not the case if he's actually part of a much more ambitious set of plans in Atlanta.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Salary info via Spotrac.
Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Bluesky and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.
