Cotton Bowl 2025: Odds, Box Score Prediction for Miami vs. Ohio State

The Cotton Bowl is projected to have the fewest points of any of the four College Football Playoff quarterfinals.

The second-seeded Ohio State Buckeyes have had one of the best defenses in the FBS all season long. The Miami Hurricanes' defense played at a high level since the start of November.

Miami is a 9.5-point underdog, but with the way its defense is playing, an argument could be made for the 10th-seeded Hurricanes to pull off their second straight upset.

Cotton Bowl Info

Date: Wednesday, December 31

Start Time: 7:30 p.m. ET

TV: ESPN

Live Stream: ESPN.com and ESPN app

Cotton Bowl Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread: Ohio State (-9.5)

Over/Under: 40.5

Money Line: Ohio State (-360; bet $360 to win $100); Miami (+285; bet $100 to win $285)

Prediction

Miami comes into AT&T Stadium off a 10-3 road win over the Texas A&M Aggies in the opening round of the CFB Playoff.

The Hurricanes have held three of their last four opponents to single-digit point totals. None of their last five opponents reached the 20-point mark.

A&M was able to move the ball through the air on the Hurricanes. The Aggies totaled 237 passing yards. They only had 89 yards on the ground and no rusher had more than 30 yards.

Ohio State is more than capable of opening up its passing game for Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate to run rampant against the Miami secondary.

Smith had 144 receiving yards in the Big Ten Championship Game loss to the Indiana Hoosiers, who possess an equally as tough defense as Miami.

Ohio State had some success running the ball against Indiana through Bo Jackson, but Smith was the offensive star of the Buckeyes' most-recent game.

Miami might be able to find its way on the ground versus the Buckeyes. The Big Ten side let up over 100 rushing yards in its last two games.

Scoring against the Buckeyes defense is a whole other challenge in itself. The No. 2 seed hasn't allowed more than 16 points in a single game all season.

There will likely be a handful of long drives on New Years' Eve, but touchdowns will be at a premium, like we saw in the most-recent games for both teams.

Look for Miami running back Mark Fletcher, who had 172 rushing yards against A&M, to receive a heavy workload versus an Ohio State front seven chock full of NFL prospects.

The Cotton Bowl will come down to which team can convert red-zone trips into touchdowns. That task will be difficult given how strong both defense have been recently. Ohio State's defense has been more consistent all season, so it has the slight advantage.

While the spread is large in Ohio State's favor, Miami could keep the game within a touchdown due to its defense, but do not expect a ton of offensive fireworks on New Years' Eve. A 17-10, 20-13-type game with plenty of total yards is likely outcome.

Prediction: Ohio State 20, Miami 13

Stat Predictions:

Miami RB Mark Fletcher: 15 carries, 90 yards

Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith: 7 catches, 100 yards