2026 Men's NCAA Tournament Bracket: Latest Projection of the Field of 68
On Tuesday mornings throughout the entire men's college basketball season, we publish an updated projection of the NCAA tournament field.
Here's the thing, though: not much has happened since last Tuesday's projection. There were three days without any games whatsoever, and only a light smattering of games with even the slightest bit of consequence on the other four days.
Thus, instead of our usual analysis on the biggest developments of the past week, we're pivoting to the biggest developments of the season thus far.
Comparing the current state of the projected field to our preseason forecast, we've highlighted one positive surprise and one negative surprise for each conference and bucket of conferences that we typically cover here.
We'll still start out the way we always do, though, with a full projection of the field and some thoughts on both the race for the No. 1 seeds and the battle for the final at-large spots.
The Projected Bracket
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East Region (Washington, D.C.)
Philadelphia, PA
No. 1 Connecticut vs. No. 16 Colgate
No. 8 UCF vs. No. 9 Iowa
San Diego, CA
No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 13 Utah Valley
No. 5 Arkansas vs. No. 12 Akron
Buffalo, NY
No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 14 High Point
No. 6 Virginia vs. No. 11 Tulsa
Greenville, SC
No. 2 Duke vs. No. 15 North Dakota State
No. 7 Saint Louis vs. No. 10 St. John's
Midwest Region (Chicago)
Buffalo, NY
No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 16 Southern / Howard
No. 8 Villanova vs. No. 9 Oklahoma State
Oklahoma City, OK
No. 4 Kansas vs. No. 13 UC San Diego
No. 5 Tennessee vs. No. 12 McNeese
Oklahoma City, OK
No. 3 Houston vs. No. 14 Arkansas State
No. 6 USC vs. No. 11 Miami
Greenville, SC
No. 2 Vanderbilt vs. No. 15 Northern Colorado
No. 7 Saint Mary's vs. No. 10 Clemson
South Region (Houston)
St. Louis, MO
No. 1 Iowa State vs. No. 16 Vermont / Long Island
No. 8 UCLA vs. No. 9 Kentucky
Philadelphia, PA
No. 4 North Carolina vs. No. 13 Liberty
No. 5 Illinois vs. No. 12 Yale
Portland, OR
No. 3 BYU vs. No. 14 Oakland
No. 6 Utah State vs. No. 11 Indiana / California
St. Louis, MO
No. 2 Purdue vs. No. 15 Lipscomb
No. 7 Baylor vs. No. 10 Auburn
West Region (San Jose)
San Diego, CA
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 16 Lindenwood
No. 8 LSU vs. No. 9 Seton Hall
Tampa, FL
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 13 Quinnipiac
No. 5 Louisville vs. No. 12 Belmont
Tampa, FL
No. 3 Nebraska vs. No. 14 Hofstra
No. 6 Florida vs. No. 11 Ohio State / NC State
Portland, OR
No. 2 Gonzaga vs. No. 15 Furman
No. 7 Georgia vs. No. 10 SMU
Ranking the No. 1 Seeds
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1. Michigan Wolverines (12-0, NET: 1, RES: 2.0, QUAL: 1.7)
2. Arizona Wildcats (13-0, NET: 4, RES: 2.3, QUAL: 3.7)
3. Iowa State Cyclones (13-0, NET: 5, RES: 7.0, QUAL: 6.0)
4. Connecticut Huskies (12-1, NET: 8, RES: 2.7, QUAL: 6.3)
5. Duke Blue Devils (11-1, NET: 3, RES: 7.0, QUAL: 5.0)
Michigan has been the most impressive team through the first two months of the season, not only defeating quality opponents but also throttling most of them. Prior to facing McNeese on Monday, the Wolverines' average scoring margin was +29.3 points per game, good for best in the nation—this despite playing four Quad 1 games and only two Quad 4 games to date.
Even so, there's a strong case to be made for Arizona at No. 1 overall instead, as the also undefeated Wildcats' collection of best wins (Alabama and Florida on neutral floors; at Connecticut) is a bit more impressive than Michigan's neutral wins over Gonzaga and Auburn and road win over TCU.
There's plenty of time to sort that out, although both teams really ought to make it into late January before suffering their first loss, neither one facing an upper-echelon foe in its conference until Arizona plays at BYU on Jan. 26, followed by Michigan playing at Michigan State on Jan. 30.
At No. 3 overall, it's the other undefeated team with a ridiculous average scoring margin, as Iowa State is sitting at +26.5 PPG, including an 81-58 road win over Purdue that really announced the Cyclones as a title contender. They're definitely a step behind Michigan and Arizona for now, though.
For the final No. 1 seed, it's growing more tempting each week to go with undefeated Vanderbilt, but Connecticut has the more remarkable resume with a 4-1 record against the top half of Quad 1. The only other team with at least three such victories is Arizona—and if the Huskies hadn't been down two starters when they faced the Wildcats, they'd probably be 5-0 with no other team boasting more than two Quad 1A victories.
The entire No. 2 seed line of Duke, Gonzaga, Purdue and Vanderbilt has good arguments for a No. 1 seed, though. In fact, so does top No. 3 seed Michigan State. It's time for conference play to separate the wheat from the chaff.
10 Words on Each of the 10 'Bubbliest' Teams
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Fifth-to-Last In: Miami Hurricanes (11-2, NET: 35, RES: 47.0, QUAL: 37.7)—Definitely better than last year, but will it be enough?
Fourth-to-Last In: Ohio State Buckeyes (9-3, NET: 43, RES: 53.0, QUAL: 35.3)—One good win (at Northwestern); one brutal loss (vs. Pittsburgh).
Third-to-Last In: Indiana Hoosiers (9-3, NET: 33, RES: 56.7, QUAL: 23.0)—One win in four tries against KenPom top 100 competition.
Second-to-Last In: NC State Wolfpack (9-4, NET: 32, RES: 57.7, QUAL: 25.3)—Two big home games against Wake and Virginia on tap.
Last Team In: California Golden Bears (12-1, NET: 48, RES: 38.7, QUAL: 66.0)—ACC home opener vs. Louisville on Tuesday represents gigantic opportunity.
***Cut Line***
First Team Out: Butler Bulldogs (10-3, NET: 41, RES: 43.0, QUAL: 46.7)—Next eight days: at Creighton, vs. Villanova, vs. St. John's.
Second Team Out: Virginia Tech Hokies (11-2, NET: 61, RES: 37.7, QUAL: 76.3)—Four decent wins, but they're winless vs. KenPom top 70.
Third Team Out: New Mexico Lobos (10-2, NET: 55, RES: 39.3, QUAL: 74.7)—Won seven straight, and MWC is never a one-bid league.
Fourth Team Out: Oklahoma Sooners (10-3, NET: 50, RES: 54.0, QUAL: 47.0)—Has two respectable wins over Oklahoma State and Wake Forest.
Fifth Team Out: George Mason Patriots (12-1, NET: 84, RES: 55.0, QUAL: 83.7)—Not all that close, but having one loss bears mentioning.
ACC Summary
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9 Teams in the Projected Field: 5. Duke, 13. North Carolina, 19. Louisville, 21. Virginia, 39. SMU, 40. Clemson, 41. Miami, 44. NC State, 45. California
Also Considered: Virginia Tech
Positive Surprise: The League as a Whole
The ACC was a laughingstock last season, sending just four of its 18 teams to the NCAA tournament—one of which was highly controversial (UNC getting the very last spot in the at-large field with its athletic director serving as the committee chair). And that four-bid mess came on the heels of three consecutive five-bid years, which paled in comparison to what used to be the norm of more than 40 percent of the league going dancing.
But things are looking much more promising this year, with the ACC picking up some of the slack of the SEC returning to earth, the Big East being kind of terrible and the Mountain West not putting its usual strong foot forward.
The upper tier of Duke, North Carolina and Louisville is roughly in the same position where it opened the season, but Virginia has made a huge leap to join them in the top 25. Miami and California have also surged from "barely worth mentioning" to "smack dab on the bubble."
Negative Surprise: Pittsburgh Panthers
An 80-46 neutral-site victory over Penn State a week ago has brought the Panthers back into the KenPom top 100, but this team is still a far cry from what it could have been—and what it used to be a decade ago. Losing home games to both Quinnipiac and Hofstra was quite the one-two punch to what may well be Jeff Capel's final season at the helm.
Big 12 Summary
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9 Teams in the Projected Field: 2. Arizona, 3. Iowa State, 10. BYU, 11. Houston, 14. Kansas, 15. Texas Tech, 25. Baylor, 31. UCF, 34. Oklahoma State
Also Considered: Arizona State, TCU
Positive Surprise: UCF Knights
Who could have guessed when UCF hosted Vanderbilt on Nov. 8 that it would be the only time either of those teams suffered a loss during the nonconference portion of this season?
The Knights were picked to finish bottom three in the Big 12, but will enter conference play on a 10-game winning streak. And while the road win over Texas A&M was the only one particularly worth mentioning, they did load up on the sort of games that would have been viewed as "gaming the RPI" back in the day, beating better-than-average mid-majors like Hofstra, Oakland, Towson and Florida Atlantic. As a result, they very sneakily have a top 20 resume metrics average.
Notably, UCF's three Big 12 "double-dip" opponents will be Cincinnati, Oklahoma State and West Virginia, which is great news for a team that would probably make the dance if it goes 9-9 in league play.
Negative Surprise: Cincinnati Bearcats
It was apparent before the season began that the Big 12 had an upper tier of seven contenders, and a swath of eight teams who could maybe find their way into the top 50. But Cincinnati was supposed to be the buffer in between those two groups—the eighth-best team in the league, destined for something like a No. 9 seed in the NCAA tournament.
Unfortunately, Wes Miller's guys missed that memo—and a ton of shots, ranking outside the top 200 in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Bearcats recently reinstated Jizzle James after dismissing him from the team over the summer, but it's probably too little too late for a team that already suffered a horrid home loss to Eastern Michigan in addition to an 0-4 record against the top two Quads.
Big East Summary
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4 Teams in the Projected Field: 4. Connecticut, 32. Villanova, 33. Seton Hall, 38. St. John's
Also Considered: Butler, Creighton
Positive Surprise: Seton Hall Pirates
There are 79 power-five programs, 78 of which finished last season ranked in the KenPom top 200. Seton Hall was the exception to that rule, going 7-25 with the second-lowest scoring offense in the entire country at 61.6 points per game. And thanks to a well-documented minimal NIL budget, the Pirates lost the seven leading scorers from that anemic offense and were expected to be kind of terrible yet again.
Shockingly, though, they started out 11-1 with road wins over Kansas State and Providence, a convincing win over NC State in Maui and merely a two-point loss to USC.
They're still nothing special whatsoever on offense, but they are light years better on defense, ranking among the nation's best in both block percentage and steal percentage.
Negative Surprise: Marquette Golden Eagles
St. John's starting out 8-4 has drawn a lot of ire in the "biggest disappointments" conversation, but the Red Storm has merely slipped four spots on KenPom since the season began and has yet to drop a game outside of Quad 1.
Marquette, on the other hand, has been a complete disaster, suffering three Quad 3 losses at home to Maryland, Dayton and Georgetown while still searching for its first win outside of Quad 4.
Shaka Smart has bizarrely prided himself in recent years on both refusing to use and managing not to lose players to the transfer portal, but this season has been a portal to hell for Golden Eagles fans.
Big Ten Summary
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10 Teams in the Projected Field: 1. Michigan, 8. Purdue, 9. Michigan State, 12. Nebraska, 17. Illinois, 22. USC, 30. UCLA, 35. Iowa, 42. Ohio State, 43. Indiana
Also Considered: Wisconsin
Positive Surprise: Nebraska Cornhuskers
Probably the biggest positive surprise in the entire country, Nebraska is ranked higher (No. 13 in the AP poll) than it has been since 1991, as well as ranked higher nationally than where it was picked to finish in the Big Ten preseason media poll (14th).
Barring some sort of unfathomable disaster against New Hampshire on Tuesday, the Cornhuskers are going to enter the new year at 13-0 with a marquee road win over Illinois and six total wins against the top two Quads. Not a single team in the country can boast more than that at this point in time.
Are they for real? Will Nebrasketball finally win an NCAA tournament game for the first time in program history? We'll have to wait and see, but they've made for a fun-to-watch story thus far.
Negative Surprise: Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin's early misgivings haven't been nearly as dire as those of Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and Marquette. One upset of Purdue or Michigan in the next two weeks and the Badgers will be right back in the at-large mix.
But the Badgers have certainly been a disappointment, enduring more than their fair share of stretches where things have unraveled in the blink of an eye. They lost by 30 at Nebraska and by 28 to BYU. And they never led in either the 11-point loss to TCU or the 10-point loss to Villanova.
The good news is that three of those four losses were Quad 1A results. The bad news is they are just 2-4 against the top three Quads, so they need to put in some serious work in Big Ten play.
SEC Summary
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9 Teams in the Projected Field: 6. Vanderbilt, 16. Alabama, 18. Tennessee, 20. Arkansas, 23. Florida, 26. Georgia, 29. LSU, 36. Kentucky, 37. Auburn
Also Considered: Oklahoma
Positive Surprise: Vanderbilt Commodores
The 'Dores were a projected No. 7 seed in the preseason, so you could argue that their ascension to a No. 2 seed is a bit less surprising than both Georgia and LSU sitting at 12-1 and somewhat comfortably in the projected field after opening the season on the outside looking in.
However, both the Bulldogs and the Tigers have largely gorged themselves on cupcakes and may or may not be for real, each sitting at 1-1 against the top two Quads.
Vanderbilt, on the other hand, has three Quad 1 wins and three Quad 2 wins, all but one of which has come in pretty convincing fashion. The Commodores trounced Saint Mary's by 25, which never happens. They also went on the road and beat Wake Forest by 31, and Wake Forest is basically the only team that Michigan hasn't blown out this season, for whatever that's worth.
Negative Surprise: Mississippi State Bulldogs
While Vanderbilt was our No. 28 overall seed heading into the season, Mississippi State was right behind the 'Dores at No. 29 overall. The SEC media poll had the Bulldogs projected for 10th place with Vanderbilt in 11th.
They are decidedly no longer kindred spirits, though. MSU started out 4-5, including losses to San Francisco, Kansas State and New Mexico. The Bulldogs also needed overtime to survive New Orleans, narrowly won the home games against Long Island and Southeastern Louisiana and are still looking for their first Quad 1 or Quad 2 win of the year.
Mississippi State has gone at least 8-10 in SEC play in each of the past eight years, but may well finish in dead last this season, based on what they've shown thus far.
Mid-Majors Summary (A10, AAC, MVC, MWC, WCC)
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6 Teams in the Projected Field: 7. Gonzaga, 24. Utah State, 27. Saint Mary's, 28. Saint Louis, 46. Tulsa, 49. Belmont
Also Considered: New Mexico, Boise State, George Mason, St. Bonaventure
Positive Surprise: Tulsa Golden Hurricane
A tip 'o the cap to Utah State and Saint Louis, both of whom have catapulted somewhat comfortably into the projected field after entering the year in the "Also Considered" bucket.
But how about Tulsa becoming the 12-1 team to beat in the AAC while Memphis has cratered to a degree unlike anything we've seen from that program in the past quarter century?
Over the previous five seasons, the Golden Hurricane had averaged 11.2 wins. Not 11.2 nonconference wins, mind you. That's 11.2 total wins. They finished last season ranked 267th on KenPom, and there's still a Lindy's Sports season preview magazine near my desk in which Tulsa was picked to finish dead-last in the league this year.
The Golden Hurricane certainly hasn't faced any sort of murderers' row. They have beaten Northern Iowa, Rhode Island, New Mexico State and Western Kentucky away from home, though, and they would be undefeated right now if they hadn't blown a five-point lead in the final minute at Kansas State.
Negative Surprise: San Diego State Aztecs
Memphis has also been wildly disappointing, but since when does San Diego State get blown out every time it faces a quality opponent and suffer bad losses to boot?
The Aztecs ran into the Michigan freight train in the Players Era Festival, losing that opener by 40. They also recently got blown out by Arizona, allowing the Wildcats to end that game on a 48-18 run. Elite competition for sure, but SDSU hadn't lost a regular-season game by 20 points since the end of the 2018-19. Twice losing by 25+ in the span of a month is hard to swallow.
The Aztecs also had not lost to a team outside the KenPom top 100 since 2018-19, but the home loss to Troy put an end to that streak, too.
Their metrics aren't terrible and three of their four losses were Quad 1 games. They could still salvage this rough start, but after opening the year as the only non-P5 school aside from Gonzaga projected for a spot in the top 44 overall, the Aztecs have been a major letdown.
Other 21 Leagues Summary
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21 Teams in the Projected Field: 47. McNeese, 48. Yale, 50. Akron, 51. UC San Diego, 52. Utah Valley, 53. Liberty, 54. Quinnipiac, 55. Hofstra, 56. Arkansas State, 57. High Point, 58. Oakland, 59. Lipscomb, 60. North Dakota State, 61. Furman, 62. Northern Colorado, 63. Colgate, 64. Lindenwood, 65. Vermont, 66. Long Island, 67. Southern, 68. Howard
Also Considered: N/A
Positive Surprise: UC San Diego Tritons
UCSD was a primo Cinderella candidate in last year's dance, ultimately falling just short of pulling off the beloved 12-over-5 upset.
Then, the Tritons were gutted during the offseason. Their three leading scorers ran out of eligibility. The next three leading scorers transferred elsewhere, while head coach Eric Olen left for the New Mexico job. And instead of being projected to run it back again, they were picked behind UC Irvine, UC Santa Barbara and Hawaii in the preseason Big West media poll.
Lo and behold, the Tritons have the conference's best resume by a wide margin, even after the bad home loss to San Diego less than two weeks ago. They've already won seven games away from home, including winning the eight-team Adventure Bracket at the ESPN Events Invitational.
Even if they win out, they're probably not going to have any real case for an at-large bid. However, the anticipated fall from grace has been much more of a minor step backward for a still dangerous team.
Negative Surprise: Chattanooga Mocs
The projected SoCon champ was a dead heat between Chattanooga and Furman, each receiving five first-place votes. But after six consecutive winning seasons, the Mocs were the pick by a slim margin.
It has been all downhill since then.
They've gone just 3-7 against D-I competition, suffering Quad 4 losses to Tennessee State, Southeast Missouri and Bellarmine, the latter in a 15-point blowout.
Chattanooga might be the only school in the country with at least 15 players who have each scored at least 15 points, but that is just a testament to how banged up they have been and how hopelessly they have been throwing anything and everything at the wall to see what sticks.
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