2026 Men's NCAA Tournament Preseason Bracket Projections
The return of men's college basketball is just around the corner, with a smorgasbord of 100 games on Monday that range from "Is that really a school?" to "Is this a Final Four preview?"
Thus begins the twisting, winding, loop-de-looping journey to crowning the 2026 national champion.
We cannot allow this season to begin without a projected bracket, though.
I won't lie to you fine folks. As has been my tradition over the past five years, most of the research that went into the seeding for this bracket involved aggregating team rankings published by others.
While it's not exactly an average of team rankings from KenPom, BartTorvik, EvanMiya, Haslametrics, Matt Norlander's Top 100 And 1 for CBS Sports and Kevin Sweeney's ranking of all 365 teams for Sports Illustrated, the average of those six was our starting point, from which minor manual adjustments were made here and there.
On top of that, the projected automatic bid for each of the 31 conferences is simply the team that was picked to win the league in the respective preseason media polls. (Work smarter, not harder.)
We all know the goal of preseason bracket projections isn't to be as accurate as possible, though. It's just a fun way to get hyped for the next five months, while maybe giving a few teams some bulletin-board material to carry as a chip on their shoulder.
So, let's dive in with some thoughts on the biggest perception changes in each of the major conferences and a preposterously early Cinderella pick.
The Projected Bracket
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East Region (Washington, D.C.)
Greenville, SC
No. 1 Duke vs. No. 16 Navy
No. 8 Missouri vs. No. 9 Cincinnati
Oklahoma City, OK
No. 4 Iowa State vs. No. 13 McNeese
No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 12 Liberty
Buffalo, NY
No. 3 Michigan vs. No. 14 St. Thomas
No. 6 Auburn vs. No. 11 Memphis
Philadelphia, PA
No. 2 Connecticut vs. No. 15 Vermont
No. 7 Ohio State vs. No. 10 Ole Miss
Midwest Region (Chicago)
St. Louis, MO
No. 1 Purdue vs. No. 16 Quinnipiac
No. 8 Mississippi State vs. No. 9 San Diego State
Buffalo, NY
No. 4 Kansas vs. No. 13 High Point
No. 5 Louisville vs. No. 12 Yale
Tampa, FL
No. 3 Tennessee vs. No. 14 Chattanooga
No. 6 North Carolina vs. No. 11 Indiana/Texas A&M
San Diego, CA
No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 15 Cal Baptist
No. 7 Vanderbilt vs. No. 10 Iowa
South Region (Houston)
Oklahoma City, OK
No. 1 Houston vs. No. 16 Norfolk State/Long Island
No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 9 Texas
San Diego, CA
No. 4 UCLA vs. No. 13 James Madison
No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 12 UC Irvine
Philadelphia, PA
No. 3 St. John's vs. No. 14 Towson
No. 6 Michigan State vs. No. 11 Oklahoma/Clemson
Greenville, SC
No. 2 Kentucky vs. No. 15 Montana
No. 7 Creighton vs. No. 10 Maryland
West Region (San Jose)
Tampa, FL
No. 1 Florida vs. No. 16 Milwaukee/Bethune-Cookman
No. 8 USC vs. No. 9 N.C. State
Portland, OR
No. 4 Gonzaga vs. No. 13 Illinois State
No. 5 Arkansas vs. No. 12 Akron
Portland, OR
No. 3 BYU vs. No. 14 Little Rock
No. 6 Wisconsin vs. No. 11 VCU
St. Louis, MO
No. 2 Illinois vs. No. 15 North Alabama
No. 7 Baylor vs. No. 10 Marquette
Last Five In: 44. Clemson, 43. Oklahoma, 42. Texas A&M, 41. Indiana, 40. Iowa
First Five Out: 69. Georgia, 70. Saint Mary's, 71. SMU, 72. Utah State, 73. Virginia
Ranking the No. 1 Seeds: 1. Houston, 2. Purdue, 3. Duke, 4. Florida
ACC Summary
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5 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 3. Duke, 18. Louisville, 23. North Carolina, 35. NC State, 44. Clemson
Also Considered: SMU, Virginia, Wake Forest, Pittsburgh, Miami, Notre Dame
Biggest Change: Will Wade bringing NC State back to relevance
By and large—and for better or worse—the ACC is picking up where it left off last March, with Duke a real threat to win it all, Louisville looking like the top candidate to dethrone the Blue Devils, and more than two-thirds of this 18-team league projected to miss the cut.
One substantial change, though, is that the Wolfpack of NC State should be back in the mix under Will Wade, potentially flipping the script on their 12-19 (5-15) disaster of a 2024-25 campaign.
Love him or hate him, Wade gets results, winning at least 18 games in each of his 11 seasons as a head coach, including putting McNeese on the map with a 58-8 record over the past two years.
And he certainly oversaw quite the roster overhaul, losing all eight of last year's leading scorers, but hitting the transfer portal hard to combat that attrition.
Wade brings Quadir Copeland and Alyn Breed with him from McNeese State, pilfered Ven-Allen Lubin from UNC as well as Jerry Deng from Florida State, and he made some real splashes with Darrion Williams (Texas Tech), Tre Holloman (Michigan State) and Terrance Arceneaux (Houston).
The Wolfpack also snagged a pair of 4-star freshmen in Matt Able and Zymicah Wilkins, the former of whom may well end up being the best shooter on the roster.
NC State does have one returnee of note in Paul McNeil Jr. He only played 208 minutes last year, but he was its top scorer on a per-minute basis and was by far its top recruit from last year's class. He and five of the transfers each logged at least 22 minutes in their exhibition win over South Carolina this past weekend.
The Maui Invitational is nowhere near the Final Four-contender event it used to be, but the Wolfpack could make an early statement by running through Seton Hall, USC and Texas to win that MTE.
Big 12 Summary
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8 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 1. Houston, 7. Arizona, 10. BYU, 14. Iowa State, 16. Kansas, 19. Texas Tech, 26. Baylor, 37. Cincinnati
Also Considered: TCU, Kansas State, West Virginia, Oklahoma State
Biggest Change: All eyes on BYU
As was the case with the ACC, the Big 12 collectively looks pretty darn similar to last year, with the seven teams projected for single-digit seeds being the seven teams who made the most recent Dance.
From an in/out standpoint, the only change is Cincinnati on the correct side of the bubble after not missing the cut by much this past spring.
One substantial change in national perspective, though, is the spotlight shining brightly in Provo.
In the past four decades, BYU had appeared in the preseason AP Top 25 just once, narrowly sneaking in at No. 24 in Jimmer Fredette's final season (2010-11). And never in program history had the Cougars debuted in the Top 10.
But after investing "close to $7 million" in potential No. 1 pick in the 2026 NBA draft AJ Dybantsa, they're sitting at No. 8 in advance of an intriguing season opener in Las Vegas against Villanova.
Put any real stock in exhibition box scores and you'll drive yourself batty, but in BYU's victory over North Carolina last Friday, Dybantsa went for 18 points, eight rebounds, three blocks and three steals.
He looked very much worthy of the hype in what is already shaping up to be a three-way race between himself, Duke's Cam Boozer and Kansas' Darryn Peterson for national freshman of the year. (The lone regular-season showdown between Dybantsa and Peterson will be on Jan. 31. Don't miss it.)
Of course, the Cougars are much more than Dybantsa. One-man shows are never top-10 teams, and Kevin Young has one heck of a starting five in returnees Richie Saunders (16.5 PPG on 43.2% 3PT) and Keba Keita (15.8 points and 14.0 rebounds per 40 minutes played over past three years), Baylor transfer Robert Wright III (11.5 PPG, 4.2 APG) and Southern Illinois transfer Kennard Davis Jr. (16.3 PPG on 37.6% 3PT).
Throw in UC Riverside transfer Nate Pickens and sixth-year senior Dawson Baker as three-point snipers off the bench, and this just might be the most potent offense BYU has ever had, which is really saying something. We'll see if they have the defensive chops to legitimately contend for a title, though.
Big East Summary
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4 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 5. Connecticut, 12. St. John's, 27. Creighton, 38. Marquette
Also Considered: Villanova, Providence
Biggest Change: UConn back?
After winning back-to-back titles in 2023 and 2024, Dan Hurley's Connecticut Huskies never quite became that wagon again this past season.
They did take eventual national champion Florida right to the wire in the second round of the NCAA tournament, but only drew that No. 1 seed in the opening weekend because they sputtered their way to a No. 8 seed—their worst since missing the dance in 2019.
They've reloaded in a big way, though, surrounding veteran combo forward Alex Karaban and shooting guard Solo Ball with more playmaking talent than they had a year ago.
Yes, they lost a first-round draft pick in Liam McNeeley, but new freshman Braylon Mullins could be just as good. And it's the addition of Georgia transfer Silas Demary Jr. that figures to be the game-changer.
He averaged 13.5 points, 3.1 assists and 1.7 steals per game while draining 58 three-pointers last year. He ought to make way more of an impact while running the offense than Hassan Diarra did in 2024-25. If Demary can even remotely flirt with being "Tristen Newton good" for UConn, look out.
Hurley also brought in a veteran point guard in Malachi Smith, who could be the key to keeping this offense humming—if he can stay healthy.
Much like Diarra, he's not much of a self-seeker, averaging 7.7 field-goal attempts compared to 5.3 assists per game over his previous four seasons at Dayton. But he does shoot nearly 40 percent from three-point range, so leave him open at your own peril.
The X-factor is Tarris Reed Jr., who came off the bench almost all of last season to the tune of 19.3 points, 14.6 rebounds and 3.2 blocks per 40 minutes.
He enters the season dealing with a hamstring injury, but hopefully he's good to go by the time the Huskies face BYU and Arizona in mid-November. Because with Samson Johnson out of the picture, it's time to find out if Reed can feast for upwards of 30 minutes a night.
UConn should be in the mix for the No. 1 overall seed if he can.
Big Ten Summary
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12 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 2. Purdue, 8. Illinois, 9. Michigan, 13. UCLA, 21. Michigan State, 24. Wisconsin, 25. Ohio State, 30. Oregon, 31. USC, 39. Maryland, 40. Iowa, 41. Indiana
Also Considered: Nebraska, Washington, Northwestern
Biggest Change: Coaching carousel at the epicenter of a deck shuffle
Eight Big Ten teams made the Dance last year, headlined by Michigan State as a No. 2 seed.
All eight are expected to partake in March Madness again, but it's Purdue that gives this league its best chance of ending the 25-year title drought, with Illinois' patented international flare looking like the top challenger to the Boilermakers.
More noteworthy than the projected order of those eight likely repeat dancers is the fact that the Big Ten is now projected for a dozen bids, with high hopes for 2019-24 Drake head coach Darian DeVries at Indiana and 2024-25 Drake head coach Ben McCollum at Iowa.
DeVries brings his son, Tucker, with him from West Virginia. He also grabbed a trio of key up-transfers in Lamar Wilkerson, Reed Bailey and Tayton Conerway and will reunite with his former starting point guard at Drake, Conor Enright.
And that's probably going to be the starting five for a team replacing 100 percent of its scoring from last season, making the Hoosiers quite the mystery.
McCollum at least has some returnees at Iowa, with unrelated Cooper and Jacob Koch back after scoring a combined 57 points last season.
Cooper has real potential, though, as he was a 4-star recruit before missing most of 2024-25 with a collapsed lung. He'll join forces with seemingly Drake's entire roster from last season, including Energizer Bunny point guard Bennett Stirtz.
Kansas State transfer Brendan Hausen, 2024-25 Horizon League POY Alvaro Folgueiras and freshman Trey Thompson figure to also be big factors in this melting pot of a roster.
One spot on the overall seed list ahead of those two is Buzz Williams at Maryland, whose new team also underwent a near-100 percent roster turnover. He brought four players (including big men Pharrel Payne and Solomon Washington) with him from Texas A&M and grabbed five other high-major transfers, most notably Myles Rice from Indiana.
Will this be the stop where he immediately constructs a contender, though? It wasn't until his third year at Virginia Tech and his fourth at Texas A&M that he made the tournament, but they're hoping that changes in his transition from College Station to College Park.
One last note here that doesn't involve a coaching change: USC goes from a 17-18 record last season to a projected No. 8 seed, largely due to the computer projections that might be struggling to forecast this team in the aftermath of 5-star freshman Alijah Arenas' likely season-ending injury.
I would put the Trojans more in the "last team in" range with what is also a transfer-laden roster—including the ageless wonder Chad Baker-Mazara—but we'll trust the models for now.
SEC Summary
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13 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 4. Florida, 6. Kentucky, 11. Tennessee, 17. Alabama, 20. Arkansas, 22. Auburn, 28. Vanderbilt, 29. Mississippi State, 32. Missouri, 33. Texas, 36. Ole Miss, 42. Texas A&M, 43. Oklahoma
Also Considered: Georgia, LSU
Biggest Change: Arkansas up; Auburn and Texas A&M down
The SEC set a record last year in sending 14 teams to the NCAA tournament, and it could be the same 14 teams getting in again this year, as 13 are in the projected field with Georgia as the first team out.
Three of the teams are at least five seed lines away from where they ended up this past March, though.
The lone team considerably moving up is Arkansas. The Razorbacks needed a late surge to get into the Dance last year and subsequently lost five of the nine members of their primary rotation.
However, replacing five key players is a light offseason for John Calipari, who brings in a pair of 5-star guards in Darius Acuff Jr. and Meleek Thomas, as well as a pair of veteran big men in Nick Pringle (South Carolina) and Malique Ewin (Florida State).
Acuff and Thomas combined for 40 points and 11 assists in their exhibition destruction of Memphis on Monday, which may have been the harbinger for Arkansas' best season since the mid-1990s.
Conversely, slipping several projected seed lines are two of the three teams that made coaching changes.
Texas might immediately be in better shape under Sean Miller than it was with Rodney Terry running the show, but how will Texas A&M fare in its transition from Buzz Williams to Bucky McMillan?
"Bucky Ball" worked pretty well at Samford, but we'll see how it translates from the Southern Conference to the Southeastern Conference. He has put together quite the conglomeration of "That guy still has eligibility, eh?" transfers, including Pop Isaacs, Rylan Griffen, Rashaun Agee and Fede Federiko. But the big key will be former Hoosier Mackenzie Mgbako. If this is where he finally starts to shine, the Aggies should be in business.
And then there's Auburn; the No. overall 1 seed last year under Bruce Pearl, but a question mark now being led by his son, Steven.
Bruce did bequeath him quite the point guard in Tahaad Pettiford, but this is otherwise a major overhaul in which transfers from Texas Tech (Kevin Overton), UCF (Keyshawn Hall), Mississippi State (KeShawn Murphy) and D-II Lincoln Memorial (Elyjah Freeman) figure to be the other four starters.
We'll see how well they adjust to life after Johni Broome.
Mid-Majors Summary (A10, AAC, MVC, MWC, WCC)
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5 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 15. Gonzaga, 34. San Diego State, 45. Memphis, 46. VCU, 53. Illinois State
Also Considered: Saint Mary's, Utah State, Boise State, Dayton
Biggest Change: Thanks, I hate it
Five mid-major conferences who often send multiple teams to the NCAA tournament, all projected as one-bid leagues.
Even worse, the projected champs of the American, Atlantic 10 and Missouri Valley are only in the field because they have to be.
Memphis is the No. 45 overall seed, but it is ranked 55th overall, well behind the likes of Georgia, SMU and Virginia, who simply ran out of at-large real estate.
Projected MVC champ Illinois State doesn't even rank in the top 100.
And the two teams who presumably would be good enough to receive an at-large bid, if needed? Gonzaga and San Diego State will both be headed to the reanimated Pac-12 next year, further dividing the haves from the have-nots.
Granted, this was the case last preseason, too, when Gonzaga, Saint Mary's and Memphis were the only teams that landed in the "good enough for an at-large" range, and we did still end up with a four-bid Mountain West.
But consider this your periodic reminder that the deck is always stacked against the "little guys," and that the inevitable expansion of the tournament field is merely going to pave the way for more sub-.500, 14th-place finishers in the major conferences.
At least Tyon Grant-Foster's appeal for one more year of eligibility at Gonzaga got approved. Maybe he can be the catalyst that finally gets the Zags a national championship before they officially lose their mid-major status.
Other 21 Leagues Summary
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21 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 47. Liberty, 48. Yale, 49. Akron, 50. UC Irvine, 51. McNeese, 52. High Point, 54. James Madison, 55. Towson, 56. Chattanooga, 57. St. Thomas, 58. Little Rock, 59. Cal Baptist, 60. Vermont, 61. North Alabama, 62. Montana, 63. Quinnipiac, 64. Navy, 65. Bethune-Cookman, 66. Milwaukee, 67. Norfolk State, 68. Long Island
Also Considered: N/A
Biggest Change: Bunch of would-be first timers
High Point, Omaha, SIU-Edwardsville and UC San Diego all punched their first tickets to the Dance last season, and there are several projected champions hoping to do the same this coming March.
St. Thomas (Summit): The Tommies were arguably the best team in the Summit League in each of the past two years, and now their "transition period" from D-III is over, finally eligible for the NCAA tournament. Returnees Carter Bjerke and Nolan Minessale figure to be two of the best players in this conference, while former top-150 recruit Isaiah Johnson-Arigu may well go from a nobody at Miami to a star at St. Thomas. When the Tommies make the dance and win a game, get ready for Johnny Tauer to be this year's coach that dozens of bigger programs try to pilfer.
Cal Baptist (WAC): With Grand Canyon getting approved to jump to the Mountain West a year ahead of schedule, there's a strong chance the WAC will produce a first-timer, now a seven-team league with Tarleton State, Utah Tech and Utah Valley also in the "never danced" fraternity. But watch out for Cal Baptist, led by Dominique Daniels Jr. who has averaged better than 19 points per game in each of the past two seasons. Could be a dangerous No. 14/15 seed if he's cooking.
North Alabama (A-Sun): The Lions made it to the A-Sun title game this past March and even led Lipscomb with five minutes to go. The Bisons ran away with an 11-point victory, though, and now North Alabama starts another journey to the promised land sans its four leading scorers from last season.
Bethune-Cookman (SWAC): Since moving from the MEAC to the SWAC a few years ago, B-CU's tally of conference wins has steadily improved from seven to eight to 11 to 13. But the Wildcats got smoked by Jackson State in the SWAC semis last year and now enter their 45th season without a trip to the Dance. They added stat sheet-stuffing Arkansas-Pine Bluff transfer Doctor Bradley, as well as former 5-star recruit Arterio Morris, getting one more shot in spite of his checkered past at Texas and Kansas.
Quinnipiac (MAAC): The Bobcats have won at least 20 games in each of the past three seasons, but they haven't quite been able to break through the glass ceiling. With 2024-25 MAAC POY Amarri Monroe (18.1 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 2.3 SPG) back for one more year, though, we might finally get a Q school into the NCAA tournament for the first time. (Queens College is also eligible for the first time in the A-Sun.)
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