Let's Face It, the Maple Leafs Should Blow It Up

If there ever was an easy solution to "fix" these Maple Leafs in the Auston Matthews era, their best chance to figure that out was before Mitch Marner's six-year contract with the club expired. 

You can give them some credit for trying before Marner left after a second-round exit to conclude the 2024-25 season. They fired GM Kyle Dubas in 2023 after he finally got the roster past the first round, only to fall in the second round. Then they parted ways with head coach Sheldon Keefe at the end of the next season, after regressing back to another first-round exit to none other than the Bruins.

It was clear to everyone that the Leafs as we knew them had one more shot to chase that elusive Stanley Cup with the core four in 2024-25. Due to the Leafs' perpetual cap issues, due to Marner's own frustrations with the club, or due to a little bit of both, lifelong Leaf Marner would not be a Maple Leaf in 2025-26.

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That much we knew, but we had no idea what would become of the team around him when he left. Losing the 100+ point player and elite two-way forward would sting, no doubt. Plus, the free agency market last offseason was particularly sparse, so good luck immediately replacing him. 

Still, how much could one player matter on one of the highest-power and consistent offenses of the decade?

Perhaps Auston Matthews would return to his 60-goal form, perhaps a shored-up defense would finally give them the tough style of play that some believed was the missing link in the playoffs. Perhaps William Nylander would follow up a stellar year with something even more special, or Matthew Knies would snap his fingers in front of the net and provide a very different but very viable in-house solution to Marner's production?

Folks, it's two days before Christmas, and the Leafs have the worst record in the extremely mid-Atlantic, at 15-15-5, with a negative nine goal differential. Amid this three-game losing streak, they fired assistant coach Marc Savard, who was in charge of the power play that has sunk to almost unbelievably low levels for a team like the Leafs.

Where do they go next? Can they even salvage their season, and if not, how do they start blowing this thing up?

They already did the whole "fire the coach" thing with Keefe, and maybe it was worth a shot but it wasn't as effective as they needed it to be. 

If someone like Craig Berube has also lost the locker room with a completely different coaching style, what does firing him do?

It could be worth a shot, given his player deployment. Matthews has played with six different right-wingers so far this season, as if the team thinks Marner 2.0 is somehow going to emerge from the depth chart. Four of these six forwards: Max Domi, Nick Robertson, Easton Cowan, and Matias Maccelli, have been healthy scratched by Berube throughout the season.

Again, though, is this Berube's fault, or was it the lack of foresight and lack of long-term thinking from general manager Brad Treliving that led to the team that had one of the best first-line forwards in the game having no viable first-line, right-wing option?

Maybe the front office assumed Matthews would bounce back from an injury-filled, rough goal-scoring 2024-25, and that would be enough. Instead, he's off to a career-worst pace with 23 points in 30 games.

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You wonder if he's still nursing an injury that he'd be better off fully addressing and healing from at this point, but he looks off with the numbers to back up the eye test. Is this the product of a broken system that was shielded by pure star power before, or is Matthews on the decline? The star power is gone, including Matthews this year, as no Leafs players are near the top 10 in scoring for the first time in recent memory.

No matter what's going on with Matthews, the Leafs have a decision to make as their captain stares down the last two years of his contract at a $13.25 million cap hit with the club. Do they try to save the season, or do they blow it up?

They could try to make a bunch of hockey trades for a spark, but what enticing assets do they really have? What would a Nick Robertson go for? What would be the point of trading Knies just to try to replace him? Plus, the Leafs don't have many draft picks to write home about – you'll recall the Bruins own their first-round pick this year after the Brandon Carlo trade, which hasn't worked out. 

However, there is a top-five protected clause in that deal that states that if the pick falls to the top five after the lottery, the Leafs get the pick back. Look, the numbers are abysmal, the power play is historically foul, the possession numbers are bleak -- they're third from bottom in the league in Corsi percentage, according to Natural Stat Trick -- and the star is checked out or hurt. Should the Leafs blow it all up and potentially get that top-five pick back in the process?

It would be a disappointing end to a beyond-disappointing era, but at this point, fully letting go might be the kindest act of mercy.