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Brad Marchand, Mitch Marner and the Winners and Losers of 2025 NHL Free Agency Eve
Well, folks, the eve of NHL free agency 2025 turned into absolute chaos as, one by one, most of the biggest names that would’ve hit the market Tuesday at noon have elected to sign extensions with their original teams.
Then there’s the biggest name: Mitch Marner, the 28-year-old lifelong Leafs winger who agreed to his anticipated sign-and-trade with the Golden Knights one day before he was set to hit the free market.
As of Monday evening, Marner, Aaron Ekblad, Brad Marchand, and Ivan Provorov have all inked their next contracts without making it to tomorrow’s market. What do these deals look like, how did it all happen so fast, and which pending free agents are even left as teams scramble to make a splash tomorrow?
Here are the winners and losers of the whirlwind that has been free agency eve.
Winner: Bill Zito Completing the Panthers' Free Agency Hat Trick
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They said it couldn't be done, but none of "them" is quite as back-to-back champion General Manager Bill Zito.
Somehow, Zito pulled off the 2025 free agency hat trick, extending Conn Smythe winner Sam Bennett for eight years at an $8 million AAV, career-long Panther Aaron Ekblad for eight years at a $6.1 million AAV, and essential trade deadline acquisition Brad Marchand for six years at a $5.3 million AAV.
Yes, he has re-signed all three of Florida's major free agents. He'll likely have to do some maneuvering as all of this leaves the Panthers either right up against or just over the cap. Still, each player took less money per year than what their market values could've warranted -- especially in a year with so few big names hitting the market.
They were all over Instagram assuring us none of them were leaving last week, and now we know that wasn't just the post-Cup celebration talking. The Panthers are officially running it back with an almost identical core as they go for the threepeat, and Zito continues to make it all work.
Loser: 30 Teams Looking to Sign Free Agents
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Imagine you're a GM of an NHL team that isn't the Golden Knights or the Panthers right now. The sense heading into this free agency was to expect more trades all around, considering how slim the free agency pickings were this year, but now virtually every big name at every position is off the board.
The trades will continue to roll in, sure, but a few competitive teams came into this free agency period with some cap space to spare and money to spend for once. There's something about not having to give up anything but cap space, dough, and ice time to get your guy, and the opportunities to do so this offseason are now slim to none.
Winner: Vegas Golden Knights
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The Mitch Marner sweepstakes has dominated the airwaves for well over a year at this point, and whatever your take on the situation is, we can finally declare the Golden Knights the winner of the sweepstakes.
The Leafs agreed to a sign-and-trade Monday that extended Marner for eight years at a $12 million AAV to ship him over to Vegas for Nic Roy. Marner is coming off the most successful season of his career, with 27 goals and 102 points in 81 games to show for it. The former Selke finalist produces with the best of them around the league and has the defensive chops a team like Vegas (or anyone) could really use.
Marner was largely projected to sign in the $13-14 million range due to the salary cap rising, so the Golden Knights getting him extended long-term at $12 million is a pretty significant win, especially given he was the most coveted free agent set to hit the market.
The Golden Knights have stayed competitive by acquiring some of their most important pieces in Jack Eichel and Mark Stone via situational trades like this. They've proven willing to part with roster players and/or enticing prospects to get their guys, and this time around, that sacrifice was Roy. He'll be a solid addition to the Leafs' middle six, no doubt, but he's a small price to pay for Marner's potential with a clean slate on a team that has no curses.
Loser: Toronto Maple Leafs
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Look, at least the Leafs didn't lose Marner for nothing.
They squeezed Nic Roy out of Vegas, and Roy is nothing to scoff at with his Cup experience and the center depth he can provide to the middle of this Leafs lineup. Teams don't often get value this good out of sign-and-trades for league superstars. Plus, some unpredictable possibilities on the horizon open up for the Leafs now that Marner, who scored 102 points last season, is no longer on the payroll.
The Leafs are not total losers in this situation, and we've got to hand it to them for at least maneuvering a player that will make an impact for them and address a need out of the whole ordeal. If you're the Leafs, the fact that it came to this with a promising player like Marner coming off a career year is a loss no matter how you spin it.
We can point to the nature of his contract and the no-trade clause that made him tough to ship before this. We can point to the fact that the Leafs are losing one of their perennial top scorers and a 100-point player who will be extremely difficult to replace. We can point to how sad it is that the Core 4 never went the distance and now it's ending on a sour note with hometown kid Marner walking away.
Even if it had to happen, Marner's time in Toronto ending like this stings.
Winner: Remaining Free Agents
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As most players at the top of our trade boards have elected to, well, stay with the Florida Panthers or move as far away from the Toronto Maple Leafs as possible, who is left to sign?
Winnipeg's Nikolaj Ehlers and Vancouver's Brock Boeser look like the two most enticing forwards left standing.
Ehlers, who is coming off a seven-year contract with a $6 million cap hit, had 24 goals, 63 points, 15:48 ATOI and a plus-14 rating last season. The contract he commands could give us a sense of the market for a perennial 20-goal scorer as the cap rises.
Boeser, who is coming off a three-year, $6.65 million AAV contract with the Canucks, had 25 goals, 50 points, 18:10 ATOI and a minus-25 rating last season. He could thrive in a better environment with a team in need of a sniper.
Considering the biggest forward targets, Marner and Marchand, are already off the board, you have to think more teams will make calls on Ehlers and Boeser tomorrow. This could mean a slightly larger payday than anticipated for either of them due to increased competition (or should we say increased desperation).
Loser: Free-Agency Drama and Analysis
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Let's be real: Who among us was expecting 80 percent of the significant news of this free agency period to drop in a 30-minute span, the night before the actual day?
Sometimes that's just the way these things work -- especially when we're talking about the Florida Panthers and the Vegas Golden Knights. These are two teams that like to cut to the chase and make things happen, so maybe we should've seen this coming, knowing three of the biggest free agents were part of the Panthers' core, and the fourth biggest free agent had been connected to the Golden Knights for weeks.
Let this be a lesson to front offices all over the league: Winners waste no time accomplishing the tasks that are under their control. Let this also be a reminder to those of us who enjoy free agent drama and analysis: When that first domino falls, the next are usually right behind it. Like, 45 seconds behind it.
There could still be some fireworks tomorrow, especially with front offices eyeing the trade market now, but Zito's masterclass left little room for free-agency drama. Good for him.
Winner: Brad Marchand
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When news of Ekblad's extension rolled in, you probably thought Marchand would hit the free market as the Panthers were inching closer to the cap and Marchand had reportedly been looking for a significant raise.
Mere hours later, Marchand's six-year, $5.3 million AAV extension was announced. What a journey it's been for the Rat King, who was the captain of his career-long Bruins up until last trade deadline. Marchand fell in love with the culture, the locker room, and the winning that came with playing for the Panthers, and the Panthers fell in love with him right back.
He turned a negative and declining situation with the Bruins into one of the best Cup Final performances of a trade-deadline acquisition in history, his second career Stanley Cup win, and now a contract with a respectable cap hit that will keep him in the league until he's 43 years old. It seems like the ideal scenario all around for one of the most interesting players in the NHL as he approaches his final years in the league.
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