The Real Reason Why The Top 7 MLB Free Agents Remain Unsigned
More than 75 of the players in Major League Baseball's 2025-26 crop of free agents have already signed new contracts, including the massive nine-figure deals inked by Dylan Cease, Pete Alonso and Kyle Schwarber.
But what's the deal with the highly coveted names like Kyle Tucker, Bo Bichette and Cody Bellinger that remain up for grabs?
For each player on the list, we'll note what the contract projections were at the beginning of the offseason, per Spotrac, MLB Trade Rumors, ESPN and our own Tim Kelly. We'll also touch on the latest rumors before offering up a theory on why the market has been slow to develop and a guess at where he will ultimately land.
Players are presented in descending order of where they ranked as the top seven in our Joel Reuter's recent top 25 big board.
Kyle Tucker, 28, Right Field
1 of 7
How Much Was Originally Projected?
Spotrac: 10 years, $402M ($40.2M AAV)
MLB Trade Rumors: 11 years, $400M ($36.4M AAV)
ESPN: 11 years, $418M ($38.0M AAV)
B/R's Tim Kelly: 10 years, $360M ($36.0M AAV)
Consensus: 10.5 years, $395M ($37.6M AAV)
What's the Latest?
Pretty much nothing. Outside of reports that the Blue Jays invited Kyle Tucker to their spring training facility ahead of the Winter Meetings, it's been All Quiet on the Tucker Front. And that was three weeks ago at this point, which is ancient history in hot stove time.
Why the Holdup?
Simply put, not many teams have upwards of $400M lying around. And for the ones that do have the money, there might be a reluctance to believe that Tucker is worth this much.
Six players in MLB history have signed contracts of at least eight seasons at an AAV of at least $35M: Juan Soto, Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Mike Trout and Gerrit Cole. Change the parameters to at least 10 years and at least $36M and it's just Soto and Ohtani.
Yet, all of the projections had Tucker fetching that much, and that's an awful lot to ask for a player who is clearly very good, but probably not a generational talent—not to mention a player who has missed significant chunks of the past two seasons due to injuries.
The Dodgers are always the first team mentioned when it comes to mega contracts, but they've been talking about doing less "heavy lifting" and probably avoiding the types of long term, deferred deals they've popularized in recent years. They also have almost too many outfielders atop their prospects rankings and are presumably looking for a short-term solution in the outfield.
The Orioles, Phillies and Blue Jays were plausible landing spots for Tucker at the start of the winter, but they've each already signed someone for at least $150M and might no longer be able to justify something this massive.
Who Signs Him?
At this point, the Mets make the most sense, desperately in need of outfielders and financially able to cut the necessary check. But as was the case last winter with Pete Alonso, they might be content to play a months-long game of "chicken," betting that Tucker will settle for less money before another team swoops in with $400M.
Bo Bichette, 28, Shortstop???
2 of 7
How Much Was Originally Projected?
Spotrac: 8 years, $186M ($23.25M AAV)
MLB Trade Rumors: 8 years, $208M ($26.0M AAV)
ESPN: 5 years, $130M ($26.0M AAV)
B/R's Tim Kelly: 7 years, $210M ($30.0M AAV)
Consensus: 7.0 years, $183.5M ($26.2M AAV)
What's the Latest?
Even before Bo Bichette took some reps at second base upon his return to the lineup in the postseason, there had been speculation that teams would want him to move away from shortstop on a long-term deal—both because of his poor defense and because most of the big spenders already have a long-term solution at shortstop.
And as of a week ago, he has reportedly been telling teams that he's open to playing second base. Maybe that will be the spark that really puts things in motion here.
Why the Holdup?
In an early offseason predictions piece that we ran in mid-October, one of my prognostications was that Bichette would become this year's 'Is he ever going to sign?' free agent.
The crux of the argument was that upper-echelon shortstops get paid way more than upper-echelon second basemen, and Bichette is probably going to need to transition from shortstop to second base in light of his woeful defensive metrics.
Thus, while the initial projections suggested a seven-year, $183.5M type of market value for Bichette, he may need to settle for way less than that, if we're assuming he's moving to what is traditionally the much less lucrative middle-infield position. And he's probably not going to be in any sort of rush to accept what feels like low-ball offers compared to what had been speculated upon for months.
The potential exception would have been a quick reunion with the Blue Jays, but they instead moved quickly on Dylan Cease and have been connected to virtually every marquee free agent under the sun, seemingly more than content to let Bichette walk if his demand is close to $200M.
Who Signs Him?
The longer this drags out, the more likely it is Bichette ends up back with Toronto on a short-term deal, as was the case with Pete Alonso re-signing with the Mets last winter.
Watch out for the Yankees, though. They only have Jazz Chisholm Jr. under contract for one more year, and there have been reports that teams have been asking what it would take for them to give him up. If they sign Bichette, they could start really listening on those Chisholm offers.
Alex Bregman, 31, Third Base
3 of 7
How Much Was Originally Projected?
Spotrac: 4 years, $112M ($28.0M AAV)
MLB Trade Rumors: 6 years, $160M ($26.7M AAV)
ESPN: 5 years, $160M ($32.0M AAV)
B/R's Tim Kelly: 5 years, $135M ($27.0M AAV)
Consensus: 5.0 years, $141.75M ($28.35M AAV)
What's the Latest?
The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal reported on Saturday that the Blue Jays have entered the Alex Bregman fray, joining the Red Sox, Cubs and Diamondbacks on the list of known suitors. The Tigers and Mets have also been mentioned previously as possible landing spots.
Why the Holdup?
Reminiscent of the "Blame Canada" song from the South Park movie a lifetime ago, Bregman's free agency stalemate has been a "Blame Japan" situation.
Munetaka Murakami came off the board on Sunday, barely 24 hours before his posting window was going to close. Kazuma Okamoto is still available, too, with a posting window that closes on January 4. And because those corner infielders had hard deadlines, they've ended up becoming the dominoes that maybe needed to fall before this biggest one could topple.
Moreover, Bregman already knows how to play this waiting game.
He turned down Detroit's reported six-year, $170M ($28.3M AAV) offer as well as the Cubs' reported four-year, $115M ($28.8M AAV) offer last winter, holding out until mid-February and getting rewarded with a three-year, $120M ($40M AAV) contract with opt-outs available after each year. And now he's back for more, with plenty of interested parties.
Who Signs Him?
Re-signing with Boston still seems like the likeliest outcome here. In fact, whatever the percent chance of a reunion was at the beginning of the offseason, it's probably even higher now with both Murakami and Pete Alonso no longer available as corner infield options.
The Red Sox did acquire 1B Willson Contreras over the weekend, but that just means they now have a more concrete understanding of how much they can spend to address their one outstanding problem.
Framber Valdez, 32, Left-Handed Starting Pitcher
4 of 7
How Much Was Originally Projected?
Spotrac: 6 years, $200M ($33.3M AAV)
MLB Trade Rumors: 5 years, $150M ($30.0M AAV)
ESPN: 6 years, $168M ($28.0M AAV)
B/R's Tim Kelly: 4 years, $114M ($28.5M AAV)
Consensus: 5.25 years, $158M ($30.1M AAV)
What's the Latest?
After Houston, Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh put together a three-team swap over the weekend, Astros general manager Dana Brown spoke with reporters, including MLB.com's Daniel Kramer, and mentioned that there has been some "back and forth with Framber (Valdez) and his agent" about a possible reunion.
By no means does that mean a re-signing is imminent or even likely, but evidently that door isn't as closed as we were led/willing to believe.
Why the Holdup?
Much like the impact that Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto have likely had on Alex Bregman's slow-developing market, it's likely that Tatsuya Imai's posting window is at least partially to blame here, right?
Prior to that recent not-even-really news about a possible reunion with Houston, the only teams that had been somewhat publicly tied to Valdez were the Giants, the Mets and the Orioles—the first two reportedly meeting with him before the Winter Meetings; the latter reportedly still interested in adding a top-of-the-rotation starter even after signing Pete Alonso.
Well, all three of those teams are also on the relatively short list of teams who may need to wait with bated breath for up to eight more days to find out where Imai is going to sign.
Perhaps once the Japanese star is off the board, the durable former Astro will start getting more earnest phone calls from the teams who miss out.
Who Signs Him?
Your guess is probably as good as mine.
The Mets arguably need him the most, but they're reluctant to sign pitchers to long-term deals. It might need to be a three-year, $120M type of deal in order for them to do it.
If the Giants don't get Imai, they figure to aggressively pursue Valdez—and might set a record for double plays induced in a single season with this southpaw and Logan Webb sharing the rubber.
Maybe Houston is serious about bringing him back, though. Could be the move that gets the Astros back into the mix for favorite to win the AL in 2026.
Cody Bellinger, 30, Outfield/First Base
5 of 7
How Much Was Originally Projected?
Spotrac: 6 years, $183M ($30.5M AAV)
MLB Trade Rumors: 5 years, $140M ($28.0M AAV)
ESPN: 6 years, $165M ($27.5M AAV)
B/R's Tim Kelly: 5 years, $135M ($27.0M AAV)
Consensus: 5.5 years, $155.75M ($28.3M AAV)
What's the Latest?
The San Francisco Giants "checked in on" Cody Bellinger a couple weeks ago, joining the Yankees, Mets, Phillies, Blue Jays and Angels on the list of teams who have at least expressed some interest in the 2019 NL MVP.
Why the Holdup?
For starters, Bellinger is Plan B for the teams willing to invest nine figures in an outfielder.
That doesn't necessarily mean he won't sign until after Kyle Tucker signs, but it probably does behoove him to wait, in hopes that the offers will increase once he's the clear belle of the ball and teams become more desperate to not need to settle for someone like Max Kepler or Michael Conforto in an everyday outfielder role.
But the bigger problem might just be Bellinger's inconsistency.
It'd be one thing to go all-in on Tucker, who is 18 months younger than Bellinger, who has been worth at least 4.6 bWAR in five consecutive years and who has never had an OPS below .800 in a season with at least 100 plate appearances. But going a fully guaranteed five or more years for a whack-a-mole type of player like Bellinger is a scarier proposition.
Who Signs Him?
Long before the offseason began, the assumption was that the Yankees would re-sign Bellinger. Having Trent Grisham accept the $22.025M qualifying offer may have reduced that need a bit, but the fit is still obvious in an outfield where Aaron Judge is the only sure thing. Bellinger could also slide into the role of primary first baseman if Ben Rice is unable to repeat his breakout year.
Don't sleep on the Angels striking first, though. They've already been pretty aggressive this offseason and they definitely need some outfield help after trading away Taylor Ward.
Ranger Suárez, 30, Left-Handed Starting Pitcher
6 of 7
How Much Was Originally Projected?
Spotrac: 6 years, $162M ($27.0M AAV)
MLB Trade Rumors: 5 years, $115M ($23.0M AAV)
ESPN: 4 years, $92M ($23.0M AAV)
B/R's Tim Kelly: 4 years, $110M ($27.5M AAV)
Consensus: 4.75 years, $119.75M ($25.2M AAV)
What's the Latest?
Ranger Suárez's market seemed to be heating up heading into the Winter Meetings, but nothing came of it. And there have been no rumors of note in the two weeks since.
Baltimore and Houston were the two frequently mentioned suitors the last time there was any scuttlebutt on this front.
Why the Holdup?
As with Framber Valdez, there's no denying the Tatsuya Imai posting window factor. It's probably even more impactful with Suárez's market, considering Valdez is a bona fide ace, Imai is probably a No. 2/3 starter and Suárez falls somewhere in between.
But that question of whether Suárez truly can be the ace of a staff—in spite of a fastball that clocks in at 90-91 MPH—might be the bigger impasse here.
The "comparable players" that Spotrac used in landing at its market value projection of six years and $162M are Corbin Burnes, Garrett Crochet, Max Fried and Carlos Rodón—otherwise read as two aces and two guys who could be aces in quite a few rotations that don't already have Gerrit Cole.
Suárez does have stretches of pure dominance in seemingly every season, including sensational October marks throughout his career. That's going to get him paid handsomely at some point this offseason. It just might have to wait until after Imai, Valdez and maybe even Zac Gallen sign their contracts.
Who Signs Him?
Baltimore and Houston still make a lot of sense.
On the Astros side of things, Suárez has put up career numbers on par with those of Valdez. However, Suárez should be gettable for less money and at least he didn't cause a great big stink in Houston by perhaps intentionally crossing up his catcher this past September. That might be where he ends up signing.
Tatsuya Imai, 27, Right-Handed Starting Pitcher
7 of 7
How Much Was Originally Projected?
Spotrac: N/A
MLB Trade Rumors: 6 years, $150M ($25.0M AAV)
ESPN: 6 years, $135M ($22.5M AAV)
B/R's Tim Kelly: 5 years, $80M ($16.0M AAV)
Consensus: 5.7 years, $121.7M ($21.5M AAV)
What's the Latest?
There's been plenty of tentative interest from the likes of the Phillies, Yankees, Cubs, Giants, Orioles and Mets, but there has been essentially no concrete news on Tatsuya Imai in the five weeks since he was posted on Nov. 19.
By this point in Yoshinobu Yamamoto's posting window two years ago, we had already heard all about Steve Cohen's trip to Japan and had at least some idea of how exorbitant the price would be. But mum's the word thus far.
Why the Holdup?
While the 45-day posting window does draw a hard line in the sand, rarely if ever does there seem to be any urgency to get these deals done much earlier than necessary.
Yamamoto did sign his $325M contract one month after posting in 2023, but Shota Imanaga's deal that same winter didn't get done until two days before the deadline. Roki Sasaki also waited until there was less than a week remaining in his window last winter. And then we've already seen Murakami wait until the final 36 hours before his shocking decision to sign a short-team deal with the White Sox.
The posting fee definitely adds an extra layer of complication, too.
If Imai signs a five-year, $100M contract, it's actually going to cost $116.875M after factoring in the percentage due to the Seibu Lions. That effectively turns a $20M AAV into a more than $23M AAV—at which point, why not just spend a little more for a known commodity like Framber Valdez or Ranger Suárez instead?
But, yes, the clock is ticking for Imai to get a deal done, and it's ticking more loudly with each passing day as the Jan. 2 deadline approaches.
Who Signs Him?
The San Francisco Giants recently signed Adrian Houser, but they definitely still have an opening at No. 3 in their 2026 rotation as well as at No. 2 in their 2027 rotation once Robbie Ray's contract expires. And ever since that quote about wanting to "take down" the Dodgers rather than sign with them, San Francisco has felt like the heavy favorite.
