MLB Free Agency 2025-26: Contract and Landing Spot Predictions for Top 25 Players
Welcome to Bleacher Report's 2025-26 countdown of the top 25 MLB free agents, where we will predict the contract and destination of some of the best players available on the open market.
Before we begin, here are a few things to keep in mind.
With all that acknowledged, here are B/R's contract and landing spot predictions for the 2025-26 free-agent class.
25. Jorge Polanco, 2B
1 of 25
2025 Stats: .265/.326/.495, 26 HR, 78 RBI, 42 BB, .821 OPS, 2.6 WAR
Age in 2026: 32
Contract Prediction: One year, $12.5 million
Team Prediction: Pirates
Actual Deal: Two years, $40 million with Mets
Gleyber Torres was an All-Star, but he posted just a .659 OPS in the second half of the season as he dealt with a sports hernia. Meanwhile, Jorge Polanco had his finest season since his tremendous 2021 campaign with the Twins after signing a one-year, $7.75 million deal with the Mariners. So, he got the nod.
As well as Polanco performed for the Mariners in 2025, 2022 first-round pick Cole Young is likely ready to take over at second base on a full-time basis in 2026. That likely means Polanco will be changing his address for his 13th MLB season.
Polanco will likely seek a two-year deal, and it's possible based on how he performed this past year that he'll get it. But for as well as he played this past season, he posted a .724 OPS between 2022 and 2024. He also doesn't grade out particularly well defensively, as he finished 2025 with minus-two defensive runs saved and minus-two outs above average.
Even if Polanco has to settle for a one-year deal, he should get a considerable raise from last year.
It would be easy to say he would make the Pirates too left-handed if you added him to a lineup that already includes Oneil Cruz, Spencer Horwitz and Jack Suwinski, but Polanco actually had reverse splits this past season, hitting .305 against southpaws.
The 91-loss Pirates can't be too choosy in trying to put anything resembling a competitive product around NL Cy Young Award winner Paul Skenes.
24. Merrill Kelly, RHP
2 of 25
2025 Stats: 12-9, 3.52 ERA, 3.76 FIP, 167 K, 184 IP, 3.1 WAR
Age in 2026: 37
Contract Prediction: One year, $13.5 million
Team Prediction: Red Sox
Actual Deal: Two years, $40 million with Diamondbacks
Merrill Kelly didn't make his MLB debut until his age-30 season, but he's logged 175 or more innings on four occasions since 2019.
The includes tossing 184 frames during a 2025 campaign that he split between the Diamondbacks and Rangers. He finished the season with a 3.52 ERA, though he fared much better over 22 starts with Arizona (3.22) than 10 with Texas (4.23).
Nonetheless, Kelly is a veteran who has eaten innings consistently, and he was dominant during Arizona's NL pennant run in 2023, pitching to a 2.25 ERA over 24 frames that October.
The Red Sox would be a great fit for him, particularly if they don't re-sign Lucas Giolito. Boston has the Cy Young runner-up in Garrett Crochet at the top of its rotation, with Brayan Bello behind him. But after that, there's some uncertainty. Connelly Early has pitched 19 regular-season innings in his MLB career, while Kutter Crawford and Patrick Sandoval are both coming back from Tommy John surgery. Tanner Houck will likely miss all of 2026 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in August.
Because Kelly turned 37 in October, he may have to settle for a one-year deal. The figure $13.5 million falls between the $12 million the Cardinals signed Kyle Gibson to for 2024 and what future Hall of Famers Justin Verlander ($15 million) and Max Scherzer ($15.5 million) threw for in 2025.
A return to Arizona could also make sense, given the Snakes have quite a bit of uncertainty in their starting rotation. Other possibilities include the Astros, Braves and Angels.
23. Robert Suarez, Closer
3 of 25
2025 Stats: 70 G, 2.97 ERA, 2.88 FIP, 40-for-45 SV, 1.9 WAR
Age in 2026: 35
Contract Prediction: Two years, $26 million with $14 million club option for 2028
Team Prediction: Dodgers
Actual Deal: Three years, $45 million with Braves
Robert Suarez didn't reach the majors until his age-31 season in 2022, but he's now been an All-Star in back-to-back years, including leading the National League with 40 saves this past year.
Considering president of baseball operations A.J. Preller acquired Mason Miller at the trade deadline and the Padres bullpen will return Adrián Morejón and Jason Adam (although he's coming back from a ruptured left quad and may not be ready for Opening Day), San Diego will probably let Suarez walk in free agency.
That's fine, there will be other contending teams happy to have him join their bullpen. The two-time defending World Series champion Dodgers, much to the chagrin of Padres fans, make quite a bit of sense for Suarez. As do the AL champion Blue Jays and the Braves, among others.
There are going to be some limitations in terms of the amount of years Suarez can get since he's going to turn 35 in March. The two-year, $22 million deal with a $13 million club option the Royals signed Carlos Estévez to last offseason could be a good baseline.
22. Brandon Woodruff, RHP
4 of 25
2025 Stats: 7-2, 3.20 ERA, 3.17 FIP, 83 K, 64.2 IP, 1.8 WAR
Age in 2026: 33
Contract Prediction: Accepts one year, $22.025 million qualifying offer
Team Prediction: Brewers
Actual Deal: Accepted one-year, $22.025 million qualifying offer from Brewers
Brandon Woodruff is going to be a difficult free agent for teams to evaluate.
The two-time All-Star missed the entire 2024 season recovering from right shoulder capsule surgery. He didn't make his 2025 debut until July 6. He was pitching like a frontline starter until a right lat strain ended his season in mid-September.
So, Woodruff has made a total of 12 starts over the last two years, and he ended the season injured. There are going to be some teams that just aren't willing to bet on his health, particularly after the Brewers extended the one-year, $22.025 million qualifying offer to him.
Then again, the Tigers gave $15 million to Alex Cobb last season based on him making five total appearances with the Guardians in 2024. Granted, that turned out to be a disastrous investment because Cobb didn't pitch at all in 2025. But if there was a market for Cobb entering his age-38 season, there are going to be some teams willing to roll the dice on Woodruff.
The small-budget Brewers giving the QO to Woodruff is likely a sign they think he'll decline it, setting them up to get draft-pick compensation if he signs elsewhere.
We're not as convinced Woodruff will think he can do better in free agency, and given his fondness for Milwaukee, taking the QO might still be his best bet.
21. Harrison Bader, CF
5 of 25
2025 Stats: .277/.347/.449, 17 HR, 54 RBI, 39 BB, .796 OPS, 3.2 WAR
Age in 2026: 32
Contract Prediction: Two years, $27 million with $13 million club option for 2028
Team Prediction: Rangers
Actual Deal: Two years, $20.5 million with Giants
Harrison Bader split 2025 with the Twins and Phillies, and he was particularly impressive after being traded to the latter, hitting .305 with an .824 OPS after putting on the red pinstripes.
Unfortunately for Bader and the Phillies, he sustained a left hamstring strain in Game 1 of the NLDS against the Dodgers, limiting him to pinch-hitting duty for the final three games of the season.
Nonetheless, he provided a spark for the Phillies, and brings an edge to whatever team he's on. At a position without many impact players, it wasn't surprising to see him decline his half of a $10 million mutual option and test free agency.
Not only did he post a career-high .796 OPS in 2025, but he remains a tremendous defender. Bader was primarily a left fielder for the Twins, posting seven defensive runs saved and three outs above average in 496 innings at that spot. He shifted back to center on a full-time basis with the Phillies, finishing the year with six DRS and three OAA in 568.2 center field innings. You can bet the team that submits the winning offer for Bader this offseason will view him as a center fielder.
Because teams are so desperate for center field help, it's not out of the question that Bader gets three years. A return to the Phillies would make sense. He's already played for both New York teams, but there are scenarios in which both the Mets and Yankees could make sense for him as well.
New Rangers manager Skip Schumaker was on the coaching staff in St. Louis in 2022 during Bader's final half season with the Cardinals, and knows what his defense can bring to an outfield.
Assuming Texas moves on from Adolis García, Bader would give the Rangers another Gold Glove-caliber defender to go with Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford moving forward.
20. Lucas Giolito, RHP
6 of 25
2025 Stats: 10-4, 3.41 ERA, 4.17 FIP, 121 K, 145 IP, 2.0 WAR
Age in 2026: 31
Contract Prediction: Two years, $43 million with $20 million club option for 2028
Team Prediction: Yankees
Lucas Giolito did not receive a qualifying offer from the Red Sox, which should help to improve his murky free-agent stock.
On one hand, he was tremendous for the Red Sox this season, posting a 3.41 ERA across 145 innings after an internal brace procedure on his right elbow forced him to miss the entirety of the 2024 season.
On the other hand, Giolito does have a major surgery in the not-so-distant past and a right elbow injury forced him to miss the ALWCS. While Boston's trip to the postseason was short-lived, his elbow was bothering him enough that it appeared likely at the beginning of the postseason he wouldn't be able to pitch in October at all.
Giolito recently told Rob Bradford on Baseball Isn't Boring that he is healthy.
"Within three days, my elbow felt 100 percent fine again…," he said. "There's no injury. Whatever injury there was, it's gone. It was like a weird freak thing that just popped up at the worst possible time."
Still, the recent injury history—along with a 2023 campaign that saw him allow an AL-worst 41 home runs while pitching for three different teams—is going to give some teams pause.
Two years is probably the ceiling Giolito will get in terms of guaranteed seasons.
A return to Chicago—this time on the north side—could make sense, though the Cubs might shoot higher to open the winter.
The Yankees—who have an ace in Max Fried, and hope Gerrit Cole will resemble one when he returns from Tommy John surgery—are looking more for a middle of the rotation arm.
Jon Heyman of The New York Post has said the Yankees are fond of Giolito, so switching sides of the AL East rivalry might prove to be his best path this offseason.
19. Devin Williams, Closer
7 of 25
2025 Stats: 67 G, 4.79 ERA, 2.68 FIP, 18-for-22 SV, 1.4 WAR
Age in 2026: 31
Contract Prediction: One year, $13 million
Team Prediction: Braves
Actual Deal: Three years, $45 million with additional $5 million in deferrals with Mets
Devin Williams' contract year didn't go well, and 2025 will turn out to be his lone season with the Yankees.
Relievers, though, are such a year-to-year proposition. Plenty of teams will be happy to bet on a bounce-back season from Williams, who seemed on a Hall of Fame trajectory when he posted a 1.89 ERA between 2019 and 2023.
Yes, he struggled for the Yankees in 2025, and had a pair of stress fractures in his back limit him to 22 games in what proved to be his final season with the Brewers. Over that 22-game sample in 2024, though, he was his usual nasty self, posting a minuscule 1.25 ERA. It hasn't been that long since his patented "airbender" changeup had him looking like arguably the best reliever in baseball.
The Braves—likely to let Raisiel Iglesias walk in free agency—could provide a chance for Williams to reestablish himself, much like Kenley Jansen did during his one season in Atlanta in 2022.
If not the Braves, go down the list of contenders that aren't the Yankees—the Dodgers, Blue Jays, Phillies, Mets, Guardians—and they all make sense if Williams signs a prove-it deal.
18. J.T. Realmuto, C
8 of 25
2025 Stats: .257/.315/.384, 12 HR, 52 RBI, 35 BB, .700 OPS, 2.1 WAR
Age in 2026: 35
Contract Prediction: Three years, $45 million
Team Prediction: Phillies
Actual Deal: Three years, $45 million with $15 million in available incentives with Phillies
If J.T. Realmuto played any other position on the diamond, his offensive production wouldn't warrant him being on this list. There are just so few impact catchers to go around in the sport that even a mid-30s Realmuto who is no longer at the height of his powers should make out pretty well.
While his offensive numbers have dipped and he posted a minus-7.0 framing grade this past season, there are still aspects of his game that he's really good at.
He throws out would-be basestealers at a high clip, runs the bases much better than the average catcher and can still hit a three-run home run from time to time. He's also a tireless preparer who is consistently lauded by the pitchers who work with him, which is a quality that's hard to quantify statistically.
He is going to have to take a pay cut from what he's made over the last half decade of a record-setting five-year, $115.5 million deal with the Phillies. But considering the next best free agents at catcher are probably Victor Caratini and Danny Jansen, Realmuto will still get a decent chunk of change and at least a two-year commitment.
The three-time All-Star's value is probably still the highest with the incumbent Phillies, who don't really have a succession plan at catcher if Realmuto departs.
After seven years with the Phillies, Realmuto is probably the greatest catcher in franchise history already. We're going to bet he'll continue adding onto that legacy for a few more years.
17. Trent Grisham, CF
9 of 25
2025 Stats: .235/.348/.464, 34 HR, 74 RBI, 82 BB, .811 OPS, 3.2 WAR
Age in 2026: 29
Contract Prediction: Three years, $55.5 million
Team Prediction: Astros
Actual Deal: Accepted one-year, $22.025 million qualifying offer with Yankees
Trent Grisham isn't going to match the annual value of the one-year, $22.025 million qualifying offer that the Yankees have extended to him, but he had such a good offensive season in 2025 that it still probably makes sense for him to decline the QO and search for a long-term contract.
Granted, having a QO attached to him will suppress his value to possible suitors a little. Grisham, though, is just a year removed from posting a .675 OPS over 76 games in his first season with the Yankees. He had never hit more than 17 home runs in a year until doubling that total in 2025. There's a distinct possibility he will never have more bargaining power than he will this winter.
What's perplexing when trying to evaluate him is that he had the worst defensive season of his career in 2025, posting minus-11 defensive runs saved and minus-two outs above average in center field. Mind you, this is someone who had 26 DRS and 33 OAA in his career prior to this season, with two Gold Glove Awards on his resume. Teams will have to evaluate why his defensive metrics dipped so much in 2025, because he's obviously much more valuable as a center fielder than a corner outfielder.
The Astros could plug Grisham into center field, giving them some stability at that position and another left-handed bat in a lineup that's thin in that regard outside of Yordan Álvarez.
The incumbent Yankees could consider a reunion even if Grisham declines the QO, though he likely would be a backup option to Cody Bellinger or Kyle Tucker, with Aaron Judge in right field and some combination of Jasson Domínguez and Spencer Jones filling the other spot.
The crosstown-rival Mets also make sense if they don't sign Bellinger or reunite with Bader.
Elsewhere, the Rangers, Phillies and Royals could also be suitors depending on their willingness to give up draft-pick compensation if Grisham does decline the QO.
16. Shota Imanaga, LHP
10 of 25
2025 Stats: 9-8, 3.73 ERA, 4.86 FIP, 117 SO, 0.9 WAR, 144.2 IP
Age in 2026: 32
Contract Prediction: Two years, $38.5 million with player opt out available after 2026
Team Prediction: Astros
Actual Deal: Accepted one-year, $22.025 million qualifying offer with Cubs
Shota Imanaga was an All-Star in his first MLB season, going 15-3 with a 2.93 ERA and 3.72 FIP over 173.1 innings for the Cubs, netting him a fifth-place finish in NL Cy Young Award voting.
However, his second MLB season wasn't nearly as impressive, as he pitched to a 3.73 ERA and 4.86 FIP over 144.2 innings pitched, with a left hamstring strain limiting him to 25 starts. His average fastball velocity dipped from 91.7 mph in 2024 to 90.8 in 2025. Even if he was never a pitcher who relied on overpowering batters, that's going to be a concern to some teams.
The Cubs declined the chance to pick up a three-year, $57 million club option to retain Imanaga, and he then opted against exercising a one-year, $15.25 million player option, making him a free agent. Considering the Cubs chose to extend the one-year, $22.025 million qualifying offer to Imanaga, he's already been vindicated in declining the player option in what was a very convoluted contract.
Imanaga has the QO in his back pocket, and it's entirely possible he takes it, because he's not going to make $22 million annually on a long-term deal. Then again, he could still sign for more total guaranteed money on a multi-year pact. Indeed, Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported last week that "early word is that Shota Imanaga is expected to decline the $22M qualifying offer."
If Imanaga declines the QO—after each side declined an option that could have kept him in Chicago for at least 2026—it might just not be meant to be. The Cubs could pivot to another starter, while collecting draft-pick compensation whenever he signs elsewhere.
The Astros could replace the left-handed presence of Framber Valdez by signing Imanaga. The Blue Jays, Padres, Angels and Giants are among the other teams that could also make sense, assuming he declines the QO.
A deal structured similarly to the two-year, $35 million contract Jack Flaherty signed to return to the Tigers last offseason, with an opt-out after the first season, would be logical for Imanaga.
15. Eugenio Suárez, 3B
11 of 25
2025 Stats: .228/.298/.526, 49 HR, 118 RBI, 46 BB, .824 OPS, 3.8 WAR
Age in 2026: 34
Contract Prediction: Two years, $43 million
Team Prediction: Angels
Eugenio Suárez launched a grand slam to put the Mariners within a win of their first World Series berth in Game 5 of the ALCS. He clearly appreciates the Seattle fans, and that feeling is reciprocated.
With that said, he homered 36 times with 87 RBI and an .897 OPS in 106 games this past season with the Diamondbacks. After being traded back to the Mariners, his offensive production plummeted, as he hit .189 with a .682 OPS when he began again playing his home games at hitter-unfriendly T-Mobile Park.
Considering Suárez has now hit .227 with a .741 OPS across two stints with the Mariners, it just seems like it would make sense to sign in greener hitting pastures this offseason, even if he has love for Seattle.
Suárez turned 34 in July, and has some limitations defensively at third base, as evidenced by the fact that he posted minus-six defensive runs saved and minus-three outs above average this past season. Those factors will likely limit him to a two-year deal, even though he's coming off of the second 49-homer season of his career.
The Angels—a team that needs a third baseman and power bat—make quite a bit of sense.
Suárez hit 189 home runs during parts of seven seasons with the Reds, and a return to Cincinnati would make sense offensively for a team that needs to add a big veteran bat. However, he would have to be willing to spend the bulk of his time at DH and/or first base, because for all of Ke'Bryan Hayes' offensive limitations, he's arguably the best defender in all of baseball, so they aren't moving him off third base.
Former employers such as the Diamondbacks and Tigers could also consider reunions if they don't feel comfortable moving forward with unproven options like Colt Keith, Jace Jung and Jordan Lawler.
14. Zac Gallen, RHP
12 of 25
2025 Stats: 13-15, 4.83 ERA, 4.51 FIP, 175 K, 192 IP, 1.1 WAR
Age in 2026: 30
Contract Prediction: Two years, $45 million with player opt-out available after 2026
Team Prediction: Diamondbacks
Zac Gallen could take the one-year, $22.025 million qualifying offer from the Diamondbacks, which would allow him to try to bounce back and re-enter free agency next winter without being saddled by a QO.
Then again, he could decline the qualifying offer, sign a shorter-term deal and probably still get an early opt-out that allows him to return to free agency next offseason if he's coming off of a stronger campaign.
Even in a down year, Gallen did still log 192 innings, which was tied with Framber Valdez—more on him in a minute—for eighth among all starters. And for as much as his numbers from this past season aren't impressive, FanGraphs says that the 14.9 WAR that Gallen posted between 2020 and 2024 was the 12th-best mark among starting pitchers over that period.
With so many teams looking for frontline starting pitching, there will be clubs—particularly if it only takes a short-term commitment—who are willing to bet on a rebound from Gallen.
The fact that the incumbent Diamondbacks didn't trade Gallen last summer during what was a poor trade market for starting pitching indicates they think there's a real chance he could stay in Arizona, whether it's via the QO or a shorter-term contract.
Arizona traded Merrill Kelly in the summer, will be without Corbin Burnes for much of 2026 as he recovers from Tommy John surgery and has gotten disastrous results from Eduardo Rodríguez over his first two seasons in the desert. This is a team that should be desperate for starting pitching, and Gallen might still be their best bet.
Diamondbacks fans might cringe when hearing this, but the one-year, $25 million deal Arizona signed Jordan Montgomery to in March of 2024—a pact that included a vesting $20 million option for a second season the lefty ultimately exercised—could offer a blueprint for how to structure a Gallen deal.
If it's not a return to the team he's spent parts of seven seasons with, Gallen could be a fit for the Cubs, Angels, Mets, Braves, Red Sox or Padres, among others.
13. Michael King, RHP
13 of 25
2025 Stats: 5-3, 3.44 ERA, 4.42 FIP, 76 K, 73.1 IP, 0.8 WAR
Age in 2026: 31
Contract Prediction: Three years, $54 million with player opt out available after 2027
Team Prediction: Angels
Actual Deal: Three years, $78 million with player opt out available after 2026 and 2027 with Padres
Michael King should be in demand, but there are some factors working against him as a free agent.
First of all, while he posted a 3.44 ERA in his contract year, right knee and left shoulder inflammation limited him to just 15 starts in 2025 for the Padres.
Secondly, he does have a qualifying offer attached to him, so any team that signs him would have to give up draft-pick compensation.
With that said, King—acquired from the Yankees in December 2023 trade that sent Juan Soto and Trent Grisham to the Bronx—posted a 3.10 ERA in two seasons with the Padres. He struck out 12 batters over seven shutout innings against the Braves in Game 1 of the 2024 NLWCS, a performance that executives will surely remember this winter when dreaming about the best-case scenario for their clubs.
The three-year, $45 million deal Seth Lugo signed with the Royals as a free agent in December 2023 could be a good deal to base King's contract off of. He'll get more money because it's been a few years, but the opt-out Lugo got after the second season—and ultimately parlayed into a deal that will pay him $46 million between 2026 and 2027—is something that would make sense for King.
Angels general manager Perry Minasian is in a contract year, and new manager Kurt Suzuki was only given a one-year contract. So ready or not, Arte Moreno wants a playoff team—or at least a winning record—in 2026.
To have any chance to accomplish either of those goals, the Halos will need to add more pitching. Under Moreno, the Angels have been hesitant to sign pitchers to megadeals. King would allow them to improve their rotation—joining a group that also includes Yusei Kikuchi and Jose Soriano—without taking too much of a risk.
12. Edwin Díaz, Closer
14 of 25
2025 Stats: 62 G, 1.63 ERA, 2.28 FIP, 28-for-31 SV, 2.0 WAR
Age in 2026: 32
Contract Prediction: Four years, $80 million
Team Prediction: Mets
Actual Deal: Three years, $69 million with Dodgers
Edwin Díaz returned to peak form just in time to opt out of the final two seasons of a five-year, $102 million contract and hit the open market for the first time in his career.
He missed the entirety of the first season of the deal after tearing the patellar tendon in his right knee while celebrating a win with Team Puerto Rico during the 2023 World Baseball Classic.
The 2024 season was an uneven one for Díaz, who converted just 20 of 27 save attempts, with a 3.52 ERA over 54 games.
However, in 2025—a season that his contract contained an opt-out clause after—he turned in his finest year since his all-time campaign of 2022. He converted 28 of 31 save attempts, while posting a minuscule 1.63 ERA across 66.1 innings pitched.
Díaz is evidence that closers are a year-to-year proposition. But he has three of the best seasons (2018, 2022, 2025) that a reliever has ever had. What's more, he's the rare reliever people will actually come to watch, hoping to get the chance to be part of the trumpets that welcome him to the mound at Citi Field. That shouldn't be discounted when trying to determine his value.
However, because he is entering his age-32 season and has a qualifying offer attached to him, Díaz is unlikely to match the five years he got on his last deal with the Mets. With that said, we're still projecting four, and for him to top the $19 million average annual value (with no deferrals) record for a reliever that Josh Hader currently owns.
No matter where Díaz pitches, they'll be able to play Timmy Trumpet through the speakers. There's no doubt he would look great the back end of the bullpen for the Dodgers or Yankees. But he's such an attraction at Citi Field that Steve Cohen won't want to let him out the door.
11. Tatsuya Imai, RHP
15 of 25
2025 Stats: 10-5, 1.92 ERA, 178 K, 163.2 IP
Age in 2026: 28
Contract Prediction: Five years, $80 million with player opt out available after 2028
Team Prediction: Giants
Actual Deal: Three years, $54 million with player opt outs available after 2026 and 2027 with Astros
Tatsuya Imai will be posted by the Seibu Lions on Nov. 19, starting a 45-day process for teams to try to work out a contract. You can bet there will be plenty of clubs interested in the Scott Boras client, who is the top Japanese arm available this winter.
A three-time All-Star in Nippon Professional Baseball, he has a 3.15 ERA and 907 strikeouts in eight seasons for the Lions, and is coming off of his finest season to date.
MLB.com's Brian Murphy has details on the pitch mix that the 27-year-old utilizes.
"He possesses a wide pitch mix, but generally relies on a fastball that can reach 99 mph and his slider. Imai also has a changeup, a splitter and started incorporating a sinker late in the season."
If there's a concern about Imai, it's his size. He's 5'11", which is an inch taller than World Series MVP Yoshinobu Yamamoto. But Yamamoto is 176 pounds, as opposed to 154 for Imai. MLB.com's Jon Morosi said "Imai's profile is similar or perhaps slightly above right-hander Kodai Senga." Senga, though, is listed at 202 pounds, nearly 50 more than Imai.
Tim Lincecum won two NL Cy Young Awards pitching at 170 pounds, so it's not unheard of, but his career only lasted a decade. Imai likely can add some weight, but at 27, there's probably not a ton of filling out left to do.
Even if his size scares some teams off, his pitch repertoire—and a desire to try to cut into the advantage the Dodgers have created by cornering the market for elite Japanese talent—will make him a popular target for pitching-needy contenders this offseason.
B/R's Zachary D. Rymer previously has ranked the top-10 landing spots for Imai, and had the Giants as the most likely destination. Justin Verlander is a free agent, and Robbie Ray is entering a contract year, so the Giants—who have the West Coast advantage geographically—make quite a bit of sense.
The contract we're projecting here would top the five-year, $75 million deal Senga got from the Mets when he came to MLB prior to the 2023 season. And we've included an opt-out clause after the third season, because if Imai proves he can hold up at his size, a bigger payday could be in order.
10. Ranger Suárez, LHP
16 of 25
2025 Stats: 12-8, 3.20 ERA, 3.21 FIP, 151 K, 157.1 IP, 4.0 WAR
Age in 2026: 30
Contract Prediction: Four years, $110 million with player opt out available after 2027
Team Prediction: Blue Jays
Actual Deal: Five years, $130 million with Red Sox
Don't be surprised if Ranger Suárez lingers on the market for some time this offseason.
Make no mistake, there's plenty to like about Suárez, whom agent Scott Boras refers to as "the Cooler." He got that nickname because he's thrived as both a starter and a reliever in the postseason, pitching to a 1.48 ERA across 42.2 career playoff innings.
What's more, he is a tremendous fielder of his position, and the swagger and composure he carries himself with is contagious.
There's no doubt Boras will make a compelling pitch in Suárez's favor.
However, teams will likely be skeptical to give him six or seven seasons. He's been on the injured list in three of the last four seasons with a back-related ailment. Suárez is crafty, but it's still concerning that his average fastball velocity has dropped from 93.4 mph in 2023 to 91.3 mph in 2025. Additionally, he is saddled with a qualifying offer.
Boras will likely frame Suárez as a Nathan Eovaldi-type pitcher who can pitch at the top of your rotation, or take the ball for high-leverage outs out of the bullpen in the postseason. And teams won't disagree with that, they'll just haggle over how many years they want to bet on him remaining that type of guy for.
Suárez's former teammate, Nick Pivetta, had to wait until mid-February after being given a qualifying offer last offseason before the Padres signed him. Suárez is a way more accomplished pitcher, who will blow by the dollars ($55 million) Pivetta got. But Suárez might have a similar wait in store, and the contract structure (four years with a player opt-out after the second season) might wind up being something both the player and team can live with.
It seems unlikely the Phillies will meet the asking price to retain Suárez given how many good starting pitchers they have, but plenty of other contenders will. The Blue Jays could slot him into their rotation with Trey Yesavage, Kevin Gausman and Shane Bieber and feel really good about their rotation heading into 2025.
If not Toronto, the Giants, Braves, Orioles, Mets, Angels and Cubs could also consider the 2024 All-Star.
9. Dylan Cease, RHP
17 of 25
2025 Stats: 8-12, 4.55 ERA, 3.56 FIP, 215 K, 168 IP, 3.4 WAR
Age in 2026: 30
Contract Prediction: Five years, $125 million with player opt out available after 2028
Team Prediction: Orioles
Actual Deal: Seven years, $210 million (includes approximately $28 million in deferrals) with Blue Jays
If Dylan Cease had his 2024 season before becoming a free agent, he likely would be viewed universally as the top starting pitcher available on the market.
His back-of-the-baseball card numbers were unimpressive in 2025, although some teams will still view him as the best starting pitcher who can be signed this winter when they dig a little deeper.
Yes, Cease posted a 4.55 ERA over 32 starts for the Padres this past year, but both his 3.46 expected ERA and 3.56 FIP suggest he was quite a bit better than his ERA would lead you to believe. Giving up nine runs in a start against the Athletics in April contributed to inflating his ERA.
Of course, it's easier to overlook Cease's 2025 season when he finished runner-up for the AL Cy Young Award as a member of the White Sox in 2022, and fourth in NL Cy Young Award voting with the Padres in 2024. It also doesn't hurt that even in what was a down year, he led baseball with 11.5 K/9 and still logged 168 innings pitched.
If Cease had matched his 2022 or 2024 season in a contract year, he likely would have been looking at a $200 million contract. He won't get that this offseason, but with five consecutive seasons of 165 or more innings and a very high ceiling, he should have no problem clearing $100 million and potentially getting an opt-out clause that allows him to return to the open market in a few years if he chooses.
The Orioles are a team that's desperate for frontline starting pitching, and owner David Rubenstein has consistently talked about president of baseball operations Mike Elias having the financial backing to help Baltimore compete in the AL East. Well, here's a great test of that.
If not the O's, the Mets, Angels, Cubs and Blue Jays also make sense as possible landing spots for Cease.
8. Cody Bellinger, OF/1B
18 of 25
2025 Stats: .272/.334/.480, 29 HR, 98 RBI, 57 BB, .813 OPS, 4.9 WAR
Age in 2026: 30
Contract Prediction: Five years, $135 million
Team Prediction: Mets
Actual Deal: Five years, $162.5 million with player opt out available after 2027
For the third time in four years, Cody Bellinger is a free agent. The third time should be the charm for the former NL MVP.
Bellinger thrived after an offseason trade from the Cubs to the Yankees, hitting .302 with a .909 OPS in 337 plate appearances at Yankee Stadium, a park that feels like it was designed with his swing in mind.
He also continued to be a valuable chess piece defensively, playing more than 300 innings at all three outfield positions, while also seeing some time at first base. It remains to be seen how many more seasons the 30-year-old will be able to be an option in center field, but while he is, his defensive flexibility is arguably his most valuable asset.
With all that acknowledged, it's not surprising he opted out of the final season of a three-year, $80 million deal and elected to return to the open market. He's coming off of a strong season, and his value is further enhanced by the fact that he won't have a qualifying offer attached to him, meaning any team that signs him won't have to surrender draft-pick compensation for doing so.
The flip side of that is the Yankees will be left empty-handed if Bellinger doesn't re-sign. So they are motivated to re-sign him, and considering he posted much more modest numbers on the road this past year—.241 batting average, .715 OPS—his preference should be to remain with the Yankees.
But if the Yankees opt for a bigger fish, Bellinger could be a great fit for the crosstown-rival Mets, taking over as their starting center fielder and continuing to give them flexibility at first base and the other two outfield spots.
Ultimately, that's what we're going to project, though a return to the Yankees shouldn't be ruled out, while the Phillies, Royals and Dodgers are among the other teams that could make sense for the former NL Rookie of the Year.
7. Framber Valdez, LHP
19 of 25
2025 Stats: 13-11, 3.66 ERA, 3.38 FIP, 187 K, 192 IP, 4.0 WAR
Age in 2026: 32
Contract Prediction: Four years, $114 million with $25 million club option for 2030
Team Prediction: Cubs
If the Cubs aren't going to bring back Imanaga or Kyle Tucker—more on that in a minute—they'll have to spend elsewhere if they hope to contend in 2026.
Indeed, Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic came away from last week's GM meetings in Las Vegas with the takeaway that "pitching is absolutely the club's top priority."
The Cubs probably need to find a way to add multiple impact starters to go with Matthew Boyd and Cade Horton. Framber Valdez would be a good name to start with.
Since the start of the 2022 season, Valdez is second among all starters in innings pitched (767.2) and fifth in WAR (16.5), per FanGraphs. His postseason resume is a mixed bag, as evidenced by his 4.34 career playoff ERA, although he did go 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA across 25 innings during Houston's 2022 title run.
Valdez is not without faults as a free agent. First of all, he's entering his age-32 season, so he's a couple years older than some of the other arms available this winter, such as Suárez, Cease and Gallen. Secondly, while he was an All-Star this past year, he struggled in the second half of the season, posting a 5.20 ERA after the Midsummer Classic. There was also that strange moment in September where he appeared to purposely cross up catcher César Salazar:
Between a bizarre ending in Houston and the qualifying offer being attached to him, Valdez may not do as well in terms of years as some are projecting. But while he may not break into the top five in average annual value, a $28.5 million AAV would give him the sixth-highest mark among all starters, slightly ahead of Garrett Crochet ($28.33). We've also included a club option for a fifth season.
6. Munetaka Murakami, 1B/3B/DH
20 of 25
2025 Stats: .273/.379/.663, 22 HR, 47 RBI, 32 BB, 1.043 OPS (56 games in Japan)
Age in 2026: 26
Contract Prediction: Five years, $95 million
Team Prediction: Mets
Actual Deal: Two years, $34 million with White Sox
Perhaps the most polarizing free agent this offseason is Munetaka Murakami, who seems to be a boom-or-bust power hitter who could hit 50 home runs or struggle with the adjustment to high velocity in MLB, depending on who you listen to.
Murakami is technically a third baseman, although most evaluations you read lead you to believe he'll spend the bulk of his MLB career at first base and/or DH.
That's fine if he's an elite power hitter, which some believe he will be. After all, this is someone who hit 56 home runs in 2022 for the Yakult Swallows, a record for a Japan-born player in Nippon Professional Baseball. He has 246 home runs in parts of eight NPB seasons, including hitting 22 in just 187 at-bats this past year, a staggering rate.
At the same time, Murakami struck out 64 times this past year in just 56 games, an alarming trend. There's conflicting information about how much he struggled against pitches of 93 mph or more this past season, but his difficulties handling velocity in 2025 will scare off some clubs.
Still, this is a two-time Central League MVP (2021 and 2022) who's only in his mid-20s. He has a .951 career OPS in NPB. Teams will put up with 200 strikeouts if they believe he has a chance to consistently hit 40 home runs.
Murakami was already posted by the Swallows on Nov. 7, starting the 45-day clock for him to reach a deal with an MLB team. It will be interesting to see how teams that prefer Kyle Schwarber and/or Pete Alonso proceed if Murakami's posting window is winding down and one or both of those two established sluggers isn't ready to decide where to sign. Will a team pivot and sign Murakami while one or both of Schwarber and Alonso is still available out of fear of being left empty-handed?
Many of the teams we will discuss with Schwarber and Alonso make sense as possible landing spots for Murakami, although he runs the risk of being option B or C for many teams.
Spoiler alert, we're projecting the Mets will let Alonso leave via free agency. They'll need to replace his power production in some manner, and Murakami as a first base/DH option—president of baseball operations David Stearns did personally scout him in Japan in August—makes sense.
5. Alex Bregman, 3B
21 of 25
2025 Stats: .273/.360/.462, 18 HR, 62 RBI, 51 BB, .821 OPS, 3.5 WAR
Age in 2026: 32
Contract Prediction: Five years, $135 million
Team Prediction: Tigers
Actual Deal: Five years, $175 million with $70 million deferred with Cubs
Alex Bregman was a free agent a year ago, coming off of a Gold Glove season in what turned out to be his final season with the Astros. However, he had posted a more modest .768 OPS in 2024 and had a qualifying offer attached to him, so things didn't pan out how he hoped in free agency.
Bregman passed on the chance to sign a six-year, $171.5 million deal with the Tigers last offseason, per The Athletic's Jen McCaffrey. He wound up getting a three-year, $120 million contract with the Red Sox, one that included opt-outs after both 2025 and 2026. A right quad strain did limit him to 114 games in 2025, but he nonetheless performed so well when healthy that it was a no-brainer for him to opt out and return to the open market.
You might be inclined to think that Bregman has massively benefitted from the Crawford Boxes at Daikin Park in Houston and the Green Monster at Fenway Park in Boston, but his career splits don't paint a picture of someone who would see a dip in production if he played his home games elsewhere:
Home (2,587 plate appearances): .268/.367/.471, 100 HR, 359 RBI, .838 OPS
Away (2,740 plate appearances): .276/.363/.490, 109 HR, 366 RBI, .852 OPS
In his first—and potentially only—season with the Red Sox, Bregman hit .246 with a .761 OPS at Fenway Park, as opposed to .296 with an .875 OPS on the road.
There are other things to like about Bregman. While he's probably past the point of his career where shortstop is a realistic option, he's a strong third baseman that could also shift over to second base if need be. Plus, despite his association with the 2017 Astros, he's built a reputation as one of the most respected clubhouse leaders in the sport. It doesn't hurt that since 2017, Bregman has played in the World Series three times, including winning a title with the Astros in 2022.
What are the areas of concern? Bregman is entering his age-32 season, and on top of a decade's worth of regular season games, he's also appeared in over 100 playoff contests. Was his quad injury just a one-off thing, or is it the beginning of the incredible workload he's taken on catching up to him?
The thought here is there will be serious interest from multiple teams on Bregman, although he's going to struggle to struggle to get six or seven years. Perhaps he'll get five, but one of the other issues facing him is he might be Plan B for a few possible suitors. The Red Sox seem more likely to prioritize a power hitter for the middle of their order. The Phillies could be players for Bregman if Kyle Schwarber leaves, but probably not otherwise.
We're going to project Bregman's first MLB manager, A.J. Hinch, and the Tigers circle back after pursuing him last winter. With a $27 million average annual value, he would comfortably top the $25.17 AAV Matt Chapman got in his new deal last offseason. Five years is the bet, although it could be four.
4. Pete Alonso, 1B/DH
22 of 25
2025 Stats: .272/.347/.524, 38 HR, 126 RBI, 61 BB, .871 OPS, 3.6 WAR
Age in 2026: 31
Contract Prediction: Five years, $145 million
Team Prediction: Red Sox
Actual Deal: Five years, $155 million with Orioles
At times last winter, it felt like Pete Alonso was more interested in the Mets than they were in him. Ultimately, he did return to Flushing on a two-year, $54 million deal with an opt-out clause after 2025.
Alonso used that opt-out to return to the free-agent market, where he might not be inclined to be as patient with the Mets for a few reasons:
Additionally, the Mets might more seriously consider alternative arrangements this winter. While we would argue they are undervaluing one of the sport's elite run producers, president of baseball operations David Stearns did say in his year-end press conference that "run prevention is where we fell short this year."
Well, for all that Alonso does well at the plate, he posted career-worst marks in defensive runs saved (minus-nine) and outs above average (minus-nine) in 2025.
The Mets shouldn't be ruled out, but it does feel like if a long-term deal hasn't been reached over the last few years, it probably won't be this offseason.
Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow is looking for a middle-of-the-order bat for manager Alex Cora's lineup, and Alonso may be the missing piece for a Boston group already budding with young talent, particularly if they can't pry Kyle Schwarber away from the Phillies.
If the Red Sox are able to lure Schwarber back, then perhaps, as hard as it is to imagine, the division-rival Phillies could become a player for Alonso if he's willing to be a DH.
3. Kyle Schwarber, DH
23 of 25
2025 Stats: .240/.365/.563, 56 HR, 132 RBI, 108 BB, .928 OPS, 4.9 WAR
Age in 2026: 33
Contract Prediction: Four years, $135 million
Team Prediction: Phillies
Actual Deal: Five years, $150 million with Phillies
Phillies manager Rob Thomson acknowledged in May something that doesn't make a ton of sense, but still seemed to be the case: Kyle Schwarber was actually getting better.
Despite hitting 93 home runs over his first two seasons with the Phillies, Schwarber committed to becoming a more well-rounded offensive player in 2024. The results were he went from hitting .207 with an .822 OPS in his first two seasons with the Phillies, to hitting .244 with an .890 OPS over the final two campaigns of what turned out to be a laughably team-friendly four-year, $79 million deal.
Oh, and the power didn't go anywhere. After hitting a more modest 38 home runs in 2024, Schwarber returned by hitting a career-high 56 homers in 2025, the top mark in the NL. He led all of baseball with 132 RBI, leading to a second-place finish in NL MVP voting.
Normally, teams are hesitant to commit to a DH entering his age-33 season, but there's no evidence Schwarber won't be really damn good for a few more seasons. Perhaps that won't be 56 homers per year, but would it shock anyone if he tops the 126 home runs (31.5 per season) that Hall of Famer Jim Thome hit between his age-33 and age-36 seasons?
Additionally, Schwarber is considered one of the best leaders in baseball. Bryce Harper remains the face of the Phillies, but Schwarber was the defacto captain, on top of usurping Harper as the best hitter on the team the last two seasons. The Phillies still seem to be the most likely landing spot for Schwarber.
Even with a qualifying offer attached to him, though, there will be other clubs who take their shot at adding Schwarber's thump to their lineup. And they won't necessarily be teams where you need to photoshop Schwarber into their jersey.
The Red Sox—who employed Schwarber in the second half of the 2021 season—could push for a reunion, with Mass Live's Chris Cotillo noting last month that Alex Cora "has been clear about his admiration for Schwarber."
It's also not hard to imagine the Cubs—who made the ill-fated decision of non-tendering Schwarber after the pandemic-shortened 2020 season—trying to right that wrong, particularly if they don't intend to pony up to keep Kyle Tucker.
Another interesting team to watch are the Reds, the team that the Middletown, Ohio native grew up rooting for. Whether they would actually spend this type of money is unclear, but they certainly did seem to be flirting with Schwarber when the Phillies visited Great American Ballpark in August.
Still, it would be very surprising if Schwarber doesn't remain in red pinstripes moving forward. That's how badly managing partner John Middleton and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski want to retain the three-time All-Star.
2. Bo Bichette, INF
24 of 25
2025 Stats: .311/.357/.483, 18 HR, 94 RBI, 40 BB, .840 OPS, 3.8 WAR
Age in 2026: 28
Contract Prediction: Seven years, $210 million
Team Prediction: Blue Jays
Actual Deal: Three years, $126 million with opt outs available after 2026 and 2027 with Mets
If not for a sprained PCL in his left knee that sidelined him from Sept. 6 until the World Series, Bo Bichette probably would have led the AL in hits for the third time in his career.
As is, Bichette rebounded from a nightmarish 2024 season to hit .311 with an .840 OPS, before hitting .348 in the seven-game World Series against the Dodgers.
Considering how much success the Blue Jays had in the postseason making contact and that Bichette is only entering his age-28 season, he's set to do very well in free agency this offseason. Whether you would take him over Schwarber, Alonso or Bregman next season, he's a really good player who's considerably younger than that trio.
Bichette does have some limitations defensively, with minus-19 career defensive runs saved and minus-32 outs above average at shortstop in his career. Whoever signs him may envision him playing shortstop in 2026, but has to have a long-term plan for him to transition to another spot on the diamond.
In fact, Jon Morosi of MLB.com wrote last week that "Bichette has received interest from multiple teams who view him as a second baseman or third baseman, due to the presence of an established shortstop on those rosters."
Bichette has only played shortstop during regular season games in his seven MLB seasons, but Toronto played him at second base during the World Series to manage his knee. Perhaps that was a blueprint for the future. And as his former teammate Marcus Semien showed getting a seven-year, $175 million contract from the Texas Rangers before the 2022 season, teams will pay big money for superstar offensive production at second base.
The aforementioned Dodgers have long been rumored to like Bichette, while the Braves, Tigers, Angels and Red Sox could all make sense, particularly if he's not hell-bent on remaining at shortstop forever.
Still, it's the incumbent Blue Jays that make the most sense. They could have Bichette play shortstop in 2026, or move him to second base and keep Andrés Giménez at shortstop. Given how close the Blue Jays were to winning it all, it feels like Bichette has unfinished business in the 6.
1. Kyle Tucker, RF
25 of 25
2025 Stats: .266/.377/.464, 22 HR, 73 RBI, 87 BB, .841 OPS, 4.5 WAR
Age in 2026: 29
Contract Prediction: 10 years, $360 million with player opt out available after 2029
Team Prediction: Yankees
Actual Deal: Four years, $240 million with $30 million deferred and player opt outs available after 2027 and 2028 with Dodgers
Kyle Tucker isn't as clear-cut of a free agent as it once appeared. He had a nice contract year, but posted just a .738 OPS after the All-Star break, as opposed to the .882 first-half OPS that earned him his fourth career trip to the Midsummer Classic.
The former Gold Glove Award winner also had minus-one defensive run saved and minus-one out above average in over 1,000 innings in right field this past season, a far cry from the 15 DRS and four OAA that earned him a Gold Glove Award in 2022.
At the same time, some of the concerning trends can be explained away if you're inclined to do so. Yes, Tucker hit just .231 after the All-Star break, but he played through a hairline fracture in his right hand that he sustained in early June. Will he win another Gold Glove Award in right field? Perhaps not. But it's not uncommon for players to have their defensive metrics dip in a contract year as they try to avoid injury before a major payday.
Above all else, Tucker is still only 29. If teams believe some injuries the last two season—a right shin fracture limited him to just 78 games in his final season with the Astros in 2024—aren't indicative of what's to come, his relative youth should help him to net a contract of at least a decade.
However, when Vladimir Guerrero Jr. signed a 14-year, $500 million extension with the Blue Jays in April without the benefit of testing the open market, Tucker seemed to have a real shot to top that. Now that we're here, there's zero chance of that happening. The Excel Sports Management client is going to get hundreds of millions of dollars, but he may want an opt-out clause after four or five seasons that sets him up to potentially get another crack at free agency during his peak.
Further complicating Tucker's free agency is the fact that the incumbent Cubs—who, in theory, should be one of the biggest spenders in baseball—don't seem likely to make a real push to re-sign him unless he lingers on the market and winds up taking a shorter deal.
ESPN's Jeff Passan wrote last week that the Dodgers are not inclined to go 10-plus years on Tucker.
We've picked the Yankees to land Tucker, essentially giving them a big-money corner outfielder to make up for the loss of Juan Soto last winter. But what if the Yankees—with uncertainty about what they have in Jasson Domínguez and an aging Aaron Judge—decide to bring back Bellinger or Grisham because they can play center field?
Ultimately, we expect there to be a club that gives Tucker a 10-year deal. Could the Blue Jays let Bichette walk and instead prioritize Tucker as they try to get over the hump in October? Perhaps the seemingly always-aggressive Buster Posey tries to bring Tucker to San Francisco to join a Giants lineup that already includes Rafael Devers, Matt Chapman and Willy Adames. Maybe the Phillies lose Schwarber and pivot to Tucker.
Typically, with a No. 1 free agent like Soto or Shohei Ohtani in recent years, there's a clearer picture of who will be the real players. Tucker is an excellent player, but he isn't the same caliber of of either of those two, and his market seems a little more wide open entering the winter.
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