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Ranking Japanese SP Tatsuya Imai's Top 10 MLB Landing Spots
You can add one more name to a long list of talented starting pitchers on MLB's free-agent market, and this one is coming from Japan.
The Saitama Seibu Lions intend to post ace right-hander Tatsuya Imai on Nov. 19, according to his agent Scott Boras. He's a three-time NPB All-Star who is coming off a 1.92 ERA over 163.2 innings in 2025.
Listed at 5'11", 154 pounds, Imai is undersized for a major league starter, and he has a history of control problems. He walked only 45 batters this season, however, and Ben Clemens of FanGraphs noted the 27-year-old has as many as four plus pitches (including a fastball that can reach 99 mph), with the potential to improve on some of them.
MLB Trade Rumors projects Imai to land a contract of $150 million over six years, and his signing team will also have to pay a posting fee worth tens of millions of dollars.
Imai, therefore, isn't a fit for everyone on the open market, but we can read some tea leaves and narrow down his top 10 landing spots.
Note: All 2026 projections for rosters, WAR and payroll are according to FanGraphs.
10. Arizona Diamondbacks
1 of 10
Top SP for 2026: Ryne Nelson, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt
Projected SP WAR for 2026: 8.1
The Diamondbacks' top three starters in 2025 all posted ERAs over 4.80, and one of them (Zac Gallen) is now missing from the equation as a free agent.
It should go without saying that the Diamondbacks need to improve their rotation if they want to contend in the National League West, where the bar for entry is about as high as they come. Unless Paul DePodesta is some kind of miracle worker, only the Colorado Rockies won't be contending in 2026.
Even so, Imai joining the Diamondbacks remains speculative. There are also two complications.
One is that the D-backs don't have a rich history (or any kind of history, really) of employing Japanese players. Another is that they're expected to decrease payroll this winter, and possibly even unload players to make it happen.
9. Baltimore Orioles
2 of 10
Top SP for 2026: Trevor Rogers, Kyle Bradish, Dean Kremer, Grayson Rodriguez*
Projected SP WAR for 2026: 11.5
The Orioles have resisted being active in free agency for most of their history, and especially since Mike Elias took over their front office in the late 2010s.
That could be about to change, however. According to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, the Orioles are expected to not only be active in free agency, but also "aggressive."
After they ranked 20th with 7.7 rWAR from their starters in 2025, adding to the rotation should be a priority. And with Rogers and Bradish both boasting No. 1 upside, Imai could be perfect for them as a better-than-most option in the No. 3 hole.
Yet there's just as much pressure on the Orioles to improve their offense, and there will be "I'll believe it when I see it" vibes even if they do target Imai. The franchise has only done one nine-figure deal in free agency, and it was an all-time disaster.
8. San Diego Padres
3 of 10
Top SP for 2026: Nick Pivetta, Joe Musgrove*, Randy Vásquez, JP Sears
Projected SP WAR for 2026: 7.6
These are tough times for the Padres' rotation. Dylan Cease and Michael King are free agents, and Yu Darvish is out for all of 2026 after having elbow surgery.
Additionally, with Musgrove returning from Tommy John surgery next season, the Padres' rotation appears to be in distress. Moving Mason Miller out of the bullpen is an option to make it better, but even then they would do well to look for outside additions.
Reunions with Cease and/or King may be possible, but the Padres have reasons to be wary of both. Cease is going to get a lot of money (potentially even $200 million) despite a wildly inconsistent track record, and King missed about half of 2025 with shoulder and knee injuries.
Hence why Imai could possibly appeal to the Padres, and they might hope to sway him with their locale. San Diego is as beautiful as cities come, and Petco Park is one of the more pitcher-friendly stadiums in MLB.
Money is the biggest obstacle. The Padres are projected to sit just $10 million below the luxury-tax threshold in 2026, so signing Imai would require exceeding that limit.
7. Los Angeles Dodgers
4 of 10
Top SP for 2026: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Shohei Ohtani, Roki Sasaki
Projected SP WAR for 2026: 17.2
The last thing the Dodgers need is another starting pitcher. But at this point, anyone who rules them out on anyone (much less a Japanese star) does so at their peril.
Even if there isn't a weak link in the projected rotation, L.A. could end up sticking to the plan it devised for 2025 and use a six-man rotation. It will have internal options if it does, but it could also opt against settling for good enough.
If that's what puts the Dodgers in the bidding for Imai, there wouldn't be much keeping them from staying in it. Per their current projections, they have close to $60 million to spend before they hit their last known payroll level.
Yet even if it wouldn't be surprising if they got in on Imai, the first point still holds: The last thing they need is another starting pitcher.
What they really need are bats and bullpen arms, and you can rest assured that they'll spare no expense on either. To wit, Kyle Tucker and Edwin Díaz feel much more likely for them than Imai.
6. Chicago Cubs
5 of 10
Top SP for 2026: Matthew Boyd, Cade Horton, Jameson Taillon, Colin Rea
Projected SP WAR for 2026: 9.6
The Cubs got only 7.0 rWAR from their starters in 2025, easily the lowest mark among the 12 teams that made the playoffs.
It was odd, then, that they willingly cut a talented starter loose when they declined their option on Shota Imanaga. It would be roster-construction malpractice if they didn't fill his spot, especially given they would seem to have a roughly $50 million budget for new salaries.
The Cubs arguably should use that budget to pursue a reunion with Kyle Tucker, but nobody seems to expect that to happen. They have enough offense, for one, and it's not as if Tucker's tenure on the North Side was fun times only.
The Cubs are just as arguably better off pursuing a proven No. 1 starter, but they could perhaps view Imai as the best value play. If they were to be the team to fully unlock him, he could prove to be many times more valuable than his actual contract.
The real catch here is how weirdly difficult it is to take it for granted that the Cubs will be in on any of the market's top free agents. Though they have the third-thickest revenue stream in MLB, they don't spend like they do.
5. Toronto Blue Jays
6 of 10
Top SP for 2026: Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, Shane Bieber, José Berríos
Projected SP WAR for 2026: 11.7
Starting pitching was the big unknown for the Blue Jays heading into this year's playoffs, but they have managed to improve their outlook since then.
It helps that Gausman and Yesavage proved to be an outstanding duo in October, with the latter making history on more than one occasion. More recently, Bieber shocked everyone by forgoing free agency and exercising his player option for 2026.
Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer did hit free agency, however, and Berríos looks more like a back-end guy after the difficult year he just had. As such, it's easy to believe Mitch Bannon of The Athletic when he says the Blue Jays have room for "another significant addition" in their rotation.
Imai would fit the bill, and he would scratch Toronto's apparent itch for a Japanese star. It rather infamously courted Shohei Ohtani two winters ago, and it was in on Roki Sasaki last winter.
Trouble is, the Blue Jays do seem to have a limited budget, and you wonder if they won't turn to Imai unless they miss out on their top priority: re-signing Bo Bichette.
4. New York Yankees
7 of 10
Top SP for 2026: Max Fried, Cam Schlittler, Luis Gil, Will Warren, Gerrit Cole*, Carlos Rodón*, Clarke Schmidt*
Projected SP WAR for 2026: 12.9
Though Cole, Rodón and Schmidt are in the mix to pitch for the Yankees next year, all three will be coming off elbow surgeries.
Between that and the reality that Gil missed most of this past season with a shoulder injury, the need for depth in the Yankees' rotation is impossible to ignore. And as a mid-rotation type with No. 1 upside, Imai is perhaps the best option for them.
As noted by Chris Kirschner of The Athletic, the Yankees have indeed scouted Imai "thoroughly." They also want to reestablish themselves in the Japanese market, as well they should after basically ceding it to the Dodgers.
The question is: Can the Yankees really prioritize a big-money deal for a starter while they have bigger, more pressing needs?
The Yankees have multiple holes to fill in their lineup, including one formerly occupied by Cody Bellinger. They also need back-end relievers to fill the holes left by Devin Williams and Luke Weaver. Simply filling these needs will likely cost the Yankees tens of millions of dollars, which could leave even them strapped for cash.
3. Boston Red Sox
8 of 10
Top SP for 2026: Garrett Crochet, Brayan Bello, Connelly Early, Kutter Crawford
Projected SP WAR for 2026: 15.1
There were times in 2025 when Bello looked like the rightful No. 2 behind Crochet in the Red Sox rotation, and other times when it looked like Lucas Giolito was actually the better pitcher.
Either way, Giolito is out of the picture after declining his mutual option for 2026. He would love to return, but Boston has every reason to look around and try to upgrade instead.
Mark Feinsand of MLB.com has linked the Red Sox to Imai, who wouldn't represent the franchise's first big foray into the Japanese market. They went all-in on Daisuke Matsuzaka once upon a time, and again on Masataka Yoshida three years ago.
Imai would also represent an interesting challenge for Craig Breslow's pitching lab. If it is true that he has untapped potential beyond what he showed in Japan, then there may be no better place to tap into it than in Boston.
The question is whether the Red Sox want Imai badly enough to downplay more pressing needs elsewhere on their roster. Namely, they badly need right-handed power and also have an Alex Bregman-shaped hole at third base.
2. New York Mets
9 of 10
Top SP for 2026: Nolan McLean, David Peterson, Clay Holmes, Sean Manaea, Kodai Senga
Projected SP WAR for 2026: 11.8
There's no need for speculation here. According to Andy Martino of SNY, the Mets "will be in on" Imai.
This tracks for an obvious reason, which is that the Mets badly need to rethink their starting rotation. New York was never short on talent in 2025, but the results weren't there in the end. It posted 6.6 rWAR to rank 25th in the league.
The Mets don't necessarily need to move anyone to make room for Imai, but Will Sammon of The Athletic has tabbed Senga as a trade candidate for other teams. By trading him, the Mets stand to cut as much as $28 million over the next two years.
Of course, the notion New York needs to move money before signing Imai is actually kind of cute. Steve Cohen has the deepest pockets of any MLB owner, and he must know the club's projected 2026 payroll is more than $100 million south of where it ended up this year.
Also in Martino's report, however, is that he doesn't expect the Mets to go all-out for Imai like they did for Yoshinobu Yamamoto two winters ago. That makes some sense, in part because they need and can certainly afford a more proven starter.
1. San Francisco Giants
10 of 10
Top SP for 2026: Logan Webb, Robbie Ray, Landen Roupp
Projected SP WAR for 2026: 10.0
That is not a good-looking rotation that the Giants have lined up for 2026, and it would only look so much better if they follow through on the Max Scherzer buzz.
Jon Morosi of MLB.com has the Giants down as a "possible suitor" for Imai. They're yet another team that might like to finally finish a pursuit of a Japanese star, as they previously fell short on Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Roki Sasaki.
With any pitching pursuit, the trump card the Giants have to play is Oracle Park. They moved in the fences in 2020, but it's still one of the worst parks for home run hitters in all of MLB.
Whether they can afford Imai depends on how much they want to push the envelope. They're already projected to be close to their 2025 payroll, but also about $50 million short of the luxury-tax threshold for 2026.
Yet even if the Giants do make a competitive offer, they would be asking Imai to take a chance on them. They have made the playoffs just once in the last nine years, and they just began a bold experiment with their new manager.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
