Every SEC Football Team's Odds to Make College Football Playoff
Media days are in the books, "talkin' season" is almost over, and pads will be popping during fall camps around the SEC in a couple of weeks.
Ah, August. It's a glorious time of the year when hope springs eternal and every team is a legitimate threat to make the College Football Playoff.
That will change once toe meets leather, though. Instead of hitting Las Vegas or your favorite online sports book for odds, let's get you set for the year by making our own SEC odds for the playoff based on talent, coaching, schedule and returning talent.
14. Vanderbilt Commodores
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Stepping in for a legend is not easy to do, and what former Vanderbilt head coach James Franklin did from 2011 to 2013—going to three straight bowl games and posting back-to-back nine-win seasons—was nothing short of legendary.
Derek Mason couldn't handle it in 2014.
He started four quarterbacks, couldn't establish an offensive identity and struggled defensively en route to an 0-8 conference record and a last-place finish in the SEC East. What's the biggest lesson Mason learned?
"Play one quarterback," Mason said at SEC media days in July.
That's a problem, though. Patton Robinette appeared to have the job locked down after spring practice but gave up football because of his own health concerns and to focus on his medical career. That leaves Johnny McCrary, Wade Freebeck, Kyle Shurmur and Shawn Stankavage vying for the job this summer.
Defensively, Caleb Azubike is a solid defensive end, and the front seven is underrated. But can they be consistent? Nope.
Odds: 900-1
13. Kentucky Wildcats
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Kentucky was on the brink of bowl eligibility last year after surging to a 5-1 record, with that only loss coming in triple overtime at Florida. The offense was clicking, Patrick Towles had established himself as the right trigger man for that offense, and everything seemed peachy in Lexington.
Six losses later—including a heartbreaker to close out the regular season to rival Louisville—the Wildcats were heading into the offseason without a bowl.
This year, redshirt freshman Drew Barker is pushing Towles, which should help the offense take the next step under first-year coordinator Shannon Dawson. Stanley "Boom" Williams is an electric playmaker, fellow running back Jojo Kemp is solid, and the defense has some stars including safety A.J. Stamps.
The championship-level depth just isn't there, though, which makes a playoff run unlikely.
Odds: 250-1
12. South Carolina Gamecocks
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Was South Carolina's sluggish 7-6 season last year a regression to the mean or the start of a trend?
Most likely, the latter.
South Carolina's defensive line couldn't get pressure and couldn't stop the run last year and returns essentially the same cast plus junior college transfer defensive end Marquavius Lewis. The inconsistency up front created problems in the back end, as South Carolina's young secondary struggled as well.
Those problems still exist, on top of new ones that were created because of graduation and early departures. The Gamecocks have a wildly unproven three-man quarterback battle on their hands this summer that includes Connor Mitch, Perry Orth and Michael Scarnecchia. They need either Brandon Wilds or David Williams (or both) to be a stud at running back, and they have no proven receiver behind all-everything stud Pharoh Cooper.
Does that sound like a recipe for playoff success? I don't think so.
Odds: 100-1
11. Florida Gators
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After the early success new coaches have had over the last decade—including Urban Meyer's national title in his second year at Florida in 2006 and Auburn's Gus Malzahn's magical run to the title game in his first year in 2013—instant success is something that has come to be expected at big-time schools.
That won't happen this year at Florida.
Every situation is unique, and Florida's patchwork offensive line, quarterback concerns and absence of a playmaker opposite wide receiver Demarcus Robinson will prevent the Gators from establishing the consistency needed to make a title run in 2015.
The defense is solid and will keep the Gators in plenty of games. It's just too hard to trust that offense, though.
Odds: 55-1
10. Mississippi State Bulldogs
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Mississippi State was the darling of the college football world last year after it upset Auburn and held the No. 1 ranking for five weeks after starting the year out of the top 25.
A sequel, though, will be easier said than done.
The Bulldogs lose five of seven starters in their front seven, three starting offensive linemen and stud running back Josh Robinson off last year's squad. That's a lot of talent lost, although head coach Dan Mullen has done his best to explain why it won't matter.
"We roll so many players that it's hard. When you look at guys like a Will Redmond, a Chris Jones, a Richie Brown who was an SEC Defensive Player of the Week one week last year, they're not returning starters because they didn't play the first play of the game," Mullen said at SEC media days.
That's true, but the continuity and familiarity on the two-deep on both sides of the football was a big reason why the Bulldogs were successful a year ago. That won't exist heading into the year, which makes it hard to trust this team.
Quarterback Dak Prescott is great, but he can't do it all.
Odds: 50-1
9. Missouri Tigers
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Missouri has played for the SEC title in each of the last two seasons, but repeating the feat this year and going into the meaningful postseason will be much more difficult.
The Tigers lose stud defensive ends Markus Golden and Shane Ray, lost tackle Harold Brantley unexpectedly after a car accident, have 10 career receptions returning from their wide receivers and have a quarterback in Maty Mauk who, while talented, was inconsistent a year ago.
If there's any team in the SEC that has earned the benefit of the doubt and can fill seemingly massive roster holes with ease, it's Missouri. Still, it's one thing to do enough to get in contention for the SEC East, but getting in the College Football Playoff mix is a bit more difficult.
Odds: 50-1
8. LSU Tigers
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LSU was recently ranked fifth in ESPN's Football Power Index and third in the SEC West at SEC media days, and it seems to be getting some benefit of the doubt based simply on the talent on the roster.
Did we forget that the quarterback situation is the exact same as last year (and still unsettled, which is more concerning), the Tigers downgraded at defensive coordinator, and the team lost its two top defensive ends off a defensive line that couldn't get pressure with them?
LSU has one of the best offensive lines in the SEC, a top-tier secondary and a stud at running back in Leonard Fournette. It had all of those last year, too, and finished 8-5.
It's too hard to trust these Tigers.
Odds: 35-1
7. Arkansas Razorbacks
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The Arkansas hype train is picking up steam this offseason, after the Hogs shut out LSU and Ole Miss in November and closed out the season by demolishing Texas in the AdvoCare V100 Texas Bowl.
That team, though, was led by defense, and losing tackle Darius Philon, end Trey Flowers and linebacker Martrell Spaight will definitely hurt. Plus, it's not like the defense was consistent last year even when it was "hot." The Hogs gave up 7.4 yards per play at Mississippi State and 5.1 at Missouri. Even at their best, they weren't the same on the road.
Offensively, all quarterback Brandon Allen needs to look like is a difference-maker every once in a while to make life difficult for opposing defenses. That should happen under first-year offensive coordinator Dan Enos, who produced 3,000-yard passers in four of the last five seasons as the head coach at Central Michigan.
Instead of a true title contender, Arkansas is much more likely to be this year's version of 2014 Ole Miss—a team that hangs around the title conversation for a while but doesn't have the championship-level depth to go the distance.
Odds: 30-1
6. Texas A&M Aggies
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Is new defensive coordinator John Chavis the magic elixir that will cure the Texas A&M defense? The Chief, along with a new-found focus on the power-running game under new running-game coordinator Dave Christensen, could be.
The Aggies will be able to sling it all over the field with sophomore Kyle Allen, a deep and talented receiving corps and a solid offensive line. If they can run when they need to, not just when they want to, this team is going to be very tough to beat assuming Chavis harnesses the talent on the defensive side of the ball.
Defense doesn't win championships anymore; "just enough" defense does. The definition of "just enough" varies based on the offense a team runs, and A&M's should be second-to-none in the SEC.
Don't sleep on the Aggies.
Odds: 25-1
5. Georgia Bulldogs
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Georgia was picked to win the SEC East at SEC media days in July, but that doesn't mean the Bulldogs are a sure-fire contender for the national title. In fact, they've got more roster issues than division rival Tennessee.
The Bulldogs have a completely rebuilt defensive line, have to rely on receiver Malcolm Mitchell to stay healthy, have to develop depth behind him and have to figure out who's going to play quarterback in the battle that includes Brice Ramsey, Faton Bauta and graduate transfer Greyson Lambert.
Sure, running back Nick Chubb is great, the offensive line is probably the best run-blocking line this side of Arkansas, and the outside linebackers are insanely talented. But Georgia has plenty of roster questions on top of a history of an inexplicable loss or two every year.
A title run is possible, sure. But probable? Nope.
Odds: 22-1
4. Tennessee Volunteers
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Whether you think the Tennessee buzz this offseason is warranted or not, there's no arguing just how good this Tennessee team could be.
The Vols get quarterback Joshua Dobbs back and have given him first-team snaps in the offseason for the first time in his career, added junior college running back Alvin Kamara to established bruiser Jalen Hurd, have a loaded wide receiving corps, return seven of eight on the defensive line two-deep, added tackles Kahlil McKenzie and Shy Tuttle, and have a loaded and experienced secondary.
It's by far the most stable roster in the SEC East.
Plus, the Vols get a bye week before the big game against Alabama, get Georgia at home and have a cakewalk against North Texas prior to traveling to Missouri.
Things set up well for Tennessee to make a run at the SEC East title—and perhaps even more.
Odds: 20-1
3. Ole Miss Rebels
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Ole Miss hung around the national title conversation for two months last year before injuries decimated the roster and sent the Rebels sputtering down the stretch.
That could work out to their advantage this year, though, because many of last year's key contributors are back with suddenly experienced backups behind them.
The defense should be one of the nation's best, with defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche, linebacker C.J. Johnson and safety Tony Conner leading the deep and hard-hitting "landsharks."
Chad Kelly, Ryan Buchanan and DeVante Kincade are all vying for the top spot on the depth chart this summer, but regardless of who wins, head coach Hugh Freeze should be able to find a reliable option out of that crew. If Freeze can find a running back who can be consistent between the tackles—something that has been lacking over the last two seasons—the Rebels can make some big-time noise.
Odds: 18-1
2. Auburn Tigers
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In July, the assembled members of the media at SEC media days picked Auburn to win the SEC title but not to win the division.
How does that work?
Well, it's pretty simple. Those who like Auburn like the Tigers a lot, while the floor for the program—which finished 8-5 last year—is probably a bit lower than intrastate rival and predicted West title winner Alabama.
Still, with head coach Gus Malzahn at the helm, a potent offense that features quarterback Jeremy Johnson and wide receiver D'haquille "Duke" Williams, new defensive coordinator Will Muschamp and a talented foundation for him to work with, this team should be in the mix for the playoff.
The talent is there, the scheme is there, and now, finally, the right defensive mind is there to fix a lingering problem on The Plains.
Odds: 10-1
1. Alabama Crimson Tide
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After two straight seasons of disappointment in bowl games, it's safe to say the shine has worn off the Alabama Crimson Tide just a little bit. The program still, however, is the college football equivalent of 24-carat gold, albeit with a few imperfections.
The secondary has given up far too many big plays over the last two seasons, the quarterback battle will go into fall camp for the second straight offseason, and head coach Nick Saban and offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin have to replace nine starters on offense.
That's a bit deceptive, though, as one of those new starters is last year's leading rusher Derrick Henry. Another is hybrid weapon Kenyan Drake, and yet another is ultratalented tight end O.J. Howard.
Even if it doesn't solve all of its offseason "problems," Alabama has proved that, under Saban, it's capable of overcoming its lingering issues and still getting to the biggest stages in college football. This year should be no different.
Odds: 8-1
Quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Barrett Sallee is the lead SEC college football writer and national college football video analyst for Bleacher Report, as well as a host on Bleacher Report Radio on Sirius 93, XM 208.
Follow Barrett on Twitter @BarrettSallee.
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