Fantasy Football Sleepers 2015: Breakout Stars Ready to Explode

With so much information at our disposal, the term “sleeper” doesn’t really exist anymore in fantasy football, so it’s become a lot more important to figure out which players will make the jump from solid contributors to fantasy superstardom. 

Maximizing the value of your draft picks is a big factor in developing a championship roster. You’re supposed to get your first few picks right, barring injuries, but the key is to find the players taken after that who will exceed their perceived expectations and therefore pay the biggest dividends.

In this group, you’ll see players who have been decent fantasy contributors but are ready to leap into that top tier at their respective positions. Others on the list could be stepping into bigger roles and are primed to become consistent fantasy options with upside, like Zach Ertz.

Each year, I’m asked by many people to give a few names I’m trying to get on most or all of my fantasy teams. Because others share my thoughts on some of these players, it’s hard to draft them all, but I’m more than willing to ignore ADP and grab them earlier than expected with the belief that they’ll be worth it in the end.

The following players are the ones you can expect to take a big step forward this year.

Ryan Tannehill

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The Dolphins have been looking for their franchise quarterback ever since Dan Marino retired after the 1999 season. But the search appears to be over now that they have an ascending signal-caller in 27-year-old Ryan Tannehill.

Fantasy players are running out of time to rely on Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Philip Rivers, so it’s time to get on the Tannehill bandwagon before it’s too late.

While he hasn’t had the meteoric rise of Andrew Luck, Tannehill’s numbers have improved each season over his first three years with the Dolphins. As a result, the team rewarded him with a six-year deal worth more than $95 million, including $45 million guaranteed. The contract is team-friendly, in the same vein of Colin Kaepernick and Andy Dalton's, and Tannehill will earn every penny of it if his improvement continues over the next few years.

In 2014, Tannehill had a career year with 4,045 passing yards, 27 touchdowns and just 12 interceptions, while completing 66.4 percent of his passes (sixth in the NFL). He boosted his fantasy value by rushing 56 times for 311 yards and a touchdown.

And as his stats have improved, so has his standing as a fantasy QB. He ended up as a top-15 player at the position last season despite a lack of weapons and offensive line issues that have been a problem since his rookie year.

The good news is the Dolphins spent this offseason retooling their receiving corps, giving Tannehill a lot of options in the passing game.

Miami signed the woefully underutilized tight end Jordan Cameron from Cleveland, traded for wide receiver Kenny Stills from New Orleans and drafted DeVante Parker in the first round of this year’s draft. Along with WR Jarvis Landry and a capable pass-catcher in running back Lamar Miller, Tannehill now has a plethora of options at his disposal. That is yet another reason to be excited about his fantasy prospects in 2015.

One of the biggest holes in Tannehill’s game has been his inability to throw an accurate, reliable deep ball, which was one of the reasons he failed to connect with the since-traded WR Mike Wallace. However, Tannehill’s downfield passing has improved.

As Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald notes: "Dolphins players have been effusive about how Ryan Tannehill has looked all offseason. Even the deep throws are improved. 'Ryan is way better than last year and more of a leader,' tight end Dion Sims said."

Everything seems to be shaping up well for Tannehill, and you shouldn’t have to use a high draft pick to get him. In fact, he’s going one to two rounds later than Ben Roethlisberger and Brees over the last month, according to MyFantasyLeague.com's ADP data. Tannehill likely won’t have the same gaudy numbers as Luck or Aaron Rodgers, but he has top-five potential at the position for fantasy.

Joseph Randle

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After DeMarco Murray’s fantastic 2014 campaign, the Cowboys elected not to re-sign him with the belief that their offensive line is so good the team can produce another successful rushing attack in 2015.

Instead of making a big splash in free agency or spending any picks on a running back in the draft, Dallas is giving Joseph Randle every opportunity to be its lead back, which makes him an excellent candidate for a breakout season. Of course, he doesn’t have the track record Murray does, so it’s fair to have some trepidation if you’re a Cowboys fan or a fantasy owner looking to invest in Randle.

With Scott Linehan taking over control of the offense in 2014, the Cowboys showed a bigger commitment to the ground game than we ever saw under head coach Jason Garrett. Garrett never ran the ball 440 times in a season dating back to 2007, whereas Linehan offenses, including last year in Dallas, topped that number five different times dating back to 2002. 

Randle has just 105 rushes to his name in the first two seasons, but he has been impressive in that short time. After carrying the ball 54 times for just 164 yards as a rookie (3.0 YPC), he rushed 51 times for 343 yards last year (6.7 YPC).

It’s not a coincidence that his yards per carry shot up running behind a much more talented offensive line. That’s a young line with some nice depth, including undrafted free agent La’el Collins joining the team this year.

For fantasy purposes, the concern for Randle has to be his role in the passing game. While much was made of Murray’s 392 carries, he also had 57 receptions on 64 targets, which are both top numbers for an RB.

Randle has just 12 receptions on 15 targets in two seasons, so that’s another area where they’d be asking him to do a lot more. But the team could lean on Lance Dunbar to help out in the passing game a little more to keep Randle fresher.

Randle hasn’t had any solid fantasy performances, so he has a lot to prove. As a result, he won’t cost you a high draft pick, at least not yet. According to MyFantasyLeague.com, Randle has an ADP around 65 since July 1, which makes him a sixth-round pick in 12-team leagues. That’s not a steep price to pay for a player who is getting every opportunity to be the starting RB behind the league's best offensive line.

The job is Randle’s to lose, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, who tweeted the team loves his "vision and explosiveness."

Randle’s stock may rise as the preseason goes on, especially if Darren McFadden continues to deal with hamstring issues. The Cowboys will likely throw the ball more this season, but all indications are that they’re still committed to the ground game. And that’s great news for Randle’s chances of having a breakout season.

Travis Kelce

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Betting on any player to come back from microfracture knee surgery and perform at the same level isn’t typically wise, but the odds are even longer when nearly an entire rookie season is lost.

The Chiefs had high hopes for Travis Kelce in 2013, but thanks to that surgery, he played just one snap before landing on the shelf. Luckily, he recovered. Kelce made his first preseason game action count in 2014 with touchdowns of 69 and 43 yards in the first two weeks, proving that he was not only back but ready to contribute at a high level.

Some may argue Kelce already broke out in 2014, and that may be true, considering he had 67 receptions for 862 yards and five touchdowns on 87 targets (77 percent catch rate).

However, the Chiefs decided to play it safe with Kelce early on. In the first half of the season, he played just 51 percent of the snaps with the Chiefs relying too much on veteran TE Anthony Fasano. That didn’t continue in the second half of the year, as Kelce’s snaps jumped to 81 percent. He ended up starting in 11 of 16 appearances and played a total of 66.7 percent of the snaps, per Pro Football Focus, compared to 69.2 for Fasano.

With Fasano now in Tennessee and no limits on Kelce, he’s primed for a huge season in a Chief offense that lacks big-time weapons. Other than RB Jamaal Charles, the squad doesn’t have any established talent besides WR Jeremy Maclin, so there’s a huge opportunity for Kelce to carve out a much bigger role in 2015.

Because the position is so weak for fantasy, and he came on strong late in the season, Kelce finished as a top-10 TE in 2014. But his ceiling is much higher in 2015, which is why he’ll likely cost you a fourth- or fifth-round pick.

Kelce seems to be fully embracing a bigger role in the offense, and per Adam Teicher of ESPN, he was demanding the ball more in offseason workouts, much to the delight of QB Alex Smith.

Other than Rob Gronkowski, Kelce might have the highest ceiling of any TE in 2015, especially with Jimmy Graham changing teams. If the Chiefs are smart, Kelce will be their go-to guy in the passing game, which gives him a legitimate chance to finish as a top-two fantasy TE.

Allen Robinson

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If you’ve steered your fantasy teams away from the Jaguars in recent years, it’s likely been a wise move. But the tide is beginning to shift in Jacksonville, which means it’s time to start paying attention to the team's young offense. 

As a rookie, Allen Robinson was on his way to a strong season before he went down with a stress fracture in his foot during Week 10.

Over those 10 games, he racked up 48 receptions, 548 yards and two touchdowns on 81 targets. He posted double-digit fantasy points in seven of those games and was clearly the team’s top receiver before landing on injured reserve. 

Heading into the 2015 season, Robinson has drawn rave reviews for his work in OTAs and put in extra work by attending Larry Fitzgerald’s annual summer camp along with teammate Allen Hurns. As Gene Frenette of the Florida Times-Union notes, Robinson is trying to become the team’s first 1,000-yard receiver since 2005.

The Jaguars are a young, developing offense with Robinson leading a WR corps that also features fellow second-year players Marqise Lee and Hurns. The Jags made a big offseason move with the signing of TE Julius Thomas, and the veteran could certainly take some of the attention away from Robinson and company as the team’s most established weapon on offense.

There’s some concern with the development of QB Blake Bortles, since he appeared to be going in the wrong direction in the second half of last season. But a healthy Robinson could be a big help in getting him back on track.

The hype on Robinson is very real, and it’s clear by his ADP that you won’t be able to get him much later than the sixth round, at least according to where he’s been selected over the last month in MyFantasyLeague.com drafts.

Still, Robinson is primed for a big role as the top receiver in this offense. And with a year of experience under his belt, it’s fair to be excited about a Jaguar in the fantasy world for the first time in years.

Zach Ertz

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Zach Ertz has been tabbed as a player with breakout potential in each of his first two seasons, but he has yet to come through with a big fantasy performance. However, this season will be different, if for no other reason than the Eagles need a lot more out of him.

After cutting WR DeSean Jackson in March 2014 and letting WR Jeremy Maclin walk in free agency this past offseason, the Eagles are sorely lacking in established talent in their receiving corps. Jordan Matthews is arguably the team’s best receiver and is entering just his second season.

With a big need at the position, the Eagles selected Nelson Agholor in the first round of this year’s draft, and the rookie may start. Neither Riley Cooper nor Miles Austin are locks to make the team and won’t have a significant impact, even if they do end up on regular-season roster. The Eagles have no choice but to get Ertz more involved as one of the most talented receiving options on the roster.

Why has Ertz failed to come through so far?

He has not done enough as a blocker, especially behind TE Brent Celek, who is strong in that area. Ertz played just 50.3 percent of the offensive snaps compared to 69 percent for Celek, per Pro Football Focus. But Celek had just 32 receptions for 340 yards and a touchdown on 51 targets compared to 58 receptions for 702 yards and three touchdowns on 89 targets for Ertz.

However, Ertz has made strides in his blocking and even reached out to Tony Gonzalez, which he spoke about on his own website.

Other than Matthews, the player with the chance to see the biggest jump in both his role and numbers is Ertz. Not only can he be a legit fantasy starter, but he could be one of the best options at the position on a weekly basis in 2015.

Teddy Bridgewater

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On the first night of the 2014 NFL draft, Teddy Bridgewater didn’t hear his name called until the last pick of the first round, and that’s only because the Vikings traded up to get him.

I spoke to Bridgewater soon after Minnesota picked him on Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports Radio, and you could tell he was surprised to wait that long. But he was also determined to get to work and prove his worth immediately. By the end of last season, Bridgewater did just that and was clearly the top rookie QB.

Heading into this year, his fantasy prospects are on the rise.

Bridgewater got off to a slow start when Matt Cassel's broken foot forced him into action Week 3 against the Saints. But as time went on, he got more comfortable. He completed 64.4 percent of his passes, which is a strong number for a rookie without a lot of talent around him.

Playing in optimal conditions is tough enough for a first-year QB, but he had to deal with a poor offensive line and changes in both his backfield and receiving corps. Bridgewater navigated those waters quite well and developed a rapport with WR Charles Johnson, who didn’t get on the field for the Vikings until Week 5.

For Bridgewater to handle those adjustments and improve as the season went on, it showed that the game wasn’t too big for him to handle.

In addition to his connection with Johnson, Bridgewater got some help this offseason with the acquisition of Mike Wallace. Even though Wallace has been somewhat inconsistent throughout his career, especially in Miami, he gives Bridgewater another weapon to make plays down the field. Add in the return of Adrian Peterson and a healthy Kyle Rudolph, and all of a sudden the Vikings offense looks pretty formidable.

Offensive coordinator Norv Turner hasn’t produced a fantasy-relevant QB since his time with Philip Rivers in San Diego, although this is clearly the most talent he’s had from an offense as a whole since his best years with the Chargers.

Right before training camp got underway, Turner told the Matt Vensel of the Star Tribune that Bridgewater has “no limits in terms of being able to learn and pick things up.”

There’s reason to be excited for Bridgewater’s chances of becoming a reliable fantasy starter. That may not happen right away, but it’s not like you have to spend a high pick on him with an ADP around 103, according to MyFantasyLeague.com data over the last month. Consider him a top fantasy backup with upside to be a legit starter by the end of the year.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins

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Austin Seferian-Jenkins was part of a group of disappointing rookie TEs in 2014, although it wasn’t that surprising considering how tough it’s been to make an impact at that position in the first season. Injuries, including a foot ailment that lingered from college, are now behind him, which opens the door for ASJ to take shine in 2015.

Tampa Bay had one of the worst quarterback situations in the league last year with the combo of Josh McCown and Mike Glennon, so it used the top pick in the draft on Jameis Winston. While Winston is far from what Andrew Luck was coming out of college as the top QB, he should still be an improvement over what Seferian-Jenkins dealt with as a rookie.

In addition to the injuries that limited him to nine games, Seferian-Jenkins suggested that the problems with Tampa Bay’s offensive coordinator didn’t help, as he told Pewter Report in July. The Buccaneers never got to work with coordinator Jeff Tedford due to health issues and had trouble getting on track with his replacement, Marcus Arroyo.

This season, Seferian-Jenkins will be able to work with new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter, who had success in developing Marcedes Lewis in Jacksonville and did a great job utilizing Tony Gonzalez in Atlanta.

With a receiving corps that includes Mike Evans (6'5") and Vincent Jackson (6'5"), plus the returning Tim Wright (6'4"), the Buccaneers have plenty of size to give opposing defenses problems with the mismatches.

Considering that Tampa Bay has serious questions about its ground game and Koetter is coming from a Falcons offense that threw the third-most passes last season, there should be plenty of opportunities for Seferian-Jenkins to contribute. He may not post big games very often, but he has a good chance to be a reliable chain-mover and red-zone option.

At a position that lacks impact fantasy players, that should be more than enough to move Seferian-Jenkins into the top 10 TEs this year.

Jordan Matthews

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Through two-plus years under head coach Chip Kelly, the Eagles have won 20 games in two seasons with Michael Vick, Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez under center. They've traded away LeSean McCoy, released DeSean Jackson and let Jeremy Maclin leave via free agency.

New faces like Sam Bradford, DeMarco Murray, Ryan Mathews and Nelson Agholor have joined the fold. What does that all mean for Jordan Matthews? The second-year WR has more tenure than most of the skill players in Philadelphia and is primed for a major role in an offense that has turned even mediocre peformers into legitimate fantasy options.

As a rookie, Matthews played primarily out of the slot and was third in snaps (65.0 percent) at the wide receiver position on the team behind Riley Cooper (81.7 percent) and Maclin (87.0 percent), per Pro Football Focus.

He finished the season with 67 receptions for 872 yards and eight touchdowns on 102 targets, which was good for a 65.7 percent catch rate. However, that number rose from 60.4 percent in the first half of the season to 70.4 percent in the second half, which coincided with Sanchez taking over for the injured Foles.

Of Matthews’ eight games with double-digit fantasy points, six of them came in the second half with Sanchez, including three 100-yard performances. Whether it was the switch to the more accurate Sanchez or Matthews just improving as the season went along, you could see him getting more comfortable.

The Eagles need Matthews to continue that rise in 2015, mostly because they don’t have many other options. Adding Agholor in the draft was a necessity after Maclin’s departure, but it’s Matthews who’s expected to see the most targets.

All indications are that Matthews will remain in the slot, as he was on the opening day of training camp, according to Jeff McLane of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Why is this good news for Matthews’ fantasy value?

Matthews finds himself on a team looking for all the help it can get in it receiving corps is in a position to provide it in a big way this year. He’ll have a legitimate chance to catch 90-plus balls in 2015 and should be considered as a strong WR2, especially in PPR formats.

All rankings and statistics are from FantasyPros.com unless otherwise noted.