Toughest Decisions for the CFB Playoff Committee Heading into Selection Day

By early Sunday afternoon, the answers will be clear.

This year's College Football Playoff selection committee will finally put their pencils down, and the 12-team bracket will be finalized.

Those inside the playoff will rejoice. Others will be furious. At this point, given the conversation over the past few weeks, we're guaranteed to have one of the most polarizing selection shows in recent memory.

There is indeed a bubble that must be sorted through along with a slew of other meaningful questions that will shape this postseason. What are the toughest decisions facing the committee now that all of the games have been played?

Let's explore.

Should Alabama Fall Out of the Playoff After Losing to Georgia in SEC Championship?

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Heading into Saturday, Alabama was ranked No. 9 in the playoff rankings, ahead of Notre Dame, which it switched spots with last week in somewhat surprising fashion, along with BYU and Miami.

A win against Georgia, of course, would have put the Crimson Tide squarely in. And the working theory was a close, hard-fought loss would have been enough.

Well, that wasn't to be. Alabama lost 28-7, was consistently outplayed and ran for -3 yards for the game. While it could have been worse, this was a dreadful last impression to give the committee.

That being said, Alabama played a football game against the nation's No. 3 team. Notre Dame and Miami were on the sidelines. If there is an argument to be made for this team, and it will be made plenty, this is the one to start with.

As for the overall resume, well, it's complicated. Alabama holds a win over Georgia, which served as the Bulldogs' only loss. The Crimson Tide also lost to Florida State in Week 1, which is one of the biggest blemishes of any playoff team.

Oh, and the loss to Georgia was the team's third, which typically serves as a playoff eliminator.

In the history of the playoff, few resumes have ever been more complicated. The result of this will be polarizing regardless. And, bigger yet, what the committee decides will ultimately shape the way conferences view conference championship games in the future.

No pressure.

How Will the Committee Settle the Notre Dame and Miami Debate?

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No conversation over the past few weeks has been louder than this one, and the playoff bubble, depending on what the committee does with Alabama, could come down to this very discussion.

The resumes between the two teams have been dissected. Both teams are 10-2. Both teams were dormant this weekend. Both have, in terms of overall metrics, have pretty similar cases to be made.

Notre Dame has better losses, and the Irish lost earlier. Miami's two losses came to teams not currently ranked.

The kicker, however, is that Miami beat Notre Dame 27-24 in the first game of the season. They played, albeit months ago, and the Hurricanes won. That should say plenty.

Despite this reality, Notre Dame has been ahead of Miami in every single College Football Playoff Ranking to date. Over the past month, however, the gap between the two has shrunk to the point that both teams could be side by side, fighting for the final playoff spot.

This past week, Notre Dame checked in at No. 10, and Miami was No. 12. Although both were dormant, BYU's blowout loss to Texas Tech could create a fascinating moment.

Would the committee stay true to the rankings if the Cougars fall a spot? Or could Miami, with the two teams next to one another, flip with no buffer between them?

It's not hyperbole to say the very future of similar discussion relies on the outcome of this decision. Head-to-head outcomes seem like an easy way to settle things, although time will tell if that's the case or not.

Will Indiana and Ohio State Stay No. 1 and No. 2 in Final Rankings?

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The No. 1 and No. 2 ranked teams entered the Big Ten Championship unbeaten. 

Then, in a game that showcased the incredible defenses of both squads, Indiana won the Big Ten, handing Ohio State its first loss of the year.

In last year's format, the outcome of this game would have been monumental. One would have gotten a bye, and the other would have hosted a playoff game. In the revised format, however, that's not the case, and both teams are capable (and likely) going to get a bye.

But what will the committee have to say?

The better question could be summarized this way. How much do conference championships matter?

When we began this playoff journey years ago, conference championships seemed like the guiding force behind the decisions. As the playoff has expanded and the rules have evolved, however, conference championships have taken a backseat, at least in certain situations.

Georgia, which ranked No. 3 coming into the weekend, delivered a mighty resume boost in its dominating win over Alabama. Was that, along with a conference championship, enough to propel the Bulldogs to No. 2 and the Buckeyes to No. 3?

Ultimately, Indiana, Ohio State and Georgia will all get a bye, but this outcome could pave the way for future decisions in the future.

Will the Committee Ultimately Select Two Group of Five Teams?

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Of all the decisions that the committee will make on Sunday, this one, as strange as it would have sounded a few years ago, might be the easiest. At least on paper, it seems that way.

Duke's overtime ACC Championship triumph over Virginia sets the stage for a fascinating debate that might not wind up as much of a debate. Had Virginia won, the Cavaliers were in. Simple as that. No drama. No conversation.

But because they lost, the committee will decide between Duke and James Madison for a playoff spot.

James Madison, which won the Sun Belt on Friday night with a win over Troy and finished its season with just one loss, was ranked No. 25 in last week's playoff rankings. Duke, which entered the ACC Championship Game with five losses, was unranked. (That should go without saying.)

Will the Blue Devils' win propel them past JMU and into the playoff? While winning the ACC is worth plenty, it seems unlikely that Duke will have enough momentum to make that kind of leap.

You can question JMU's strength of schedule along with plenty of other metrics. But a five-loss season is hard to overcome. Either way, the committee will ultimately have final say.