Pacers 2015-16 Schedule: Top Games, Championship Odds and Record Predictions
For the first time since 2010, the Indiana Pacers come into a season after posting a losing record and missing the postseason. This also marks the second straight year with a lot of uncertainty for the franchise, though for very different reasons.
Last year, the Pacers had to deal with the loss of star player Paul George to a broken leg for most of the season. He did return to play six games, but the team had fallen out of serious playoff contention long before that.
Now, Pacers president Larry Bird and head coach Frank Vogel are looking to change how the team plays. Bird addressed the topic immediately after last season, telling Mark Montieth of NBA.com they needed to play faster: "There's a gentleman who sits behind me who said, 'Boy, I wish they'd push the ball up a little faster.' And I agreed with him. ... I'm not saying we're going to go out there and go crazy up and down the court. But we want to play a little smaller at times."
Vogel also addressed the potential changes in Montieth's article, emphasizing the need for them to get faster: "I'm excited about it. We've been in the bottom third offensively for a couple years now. Our style of play is based on how our roster is set up and playing to personnel strengths, but using Paul at the four spot some could, A, make us faster and, B, give us better spacing."
One way for the Pacers to play faster, as Vogel mentioned, is to change the roster. The biggest move—literally and figuratively—was sending Roy Hibbert to the Los Angeles Lakers for a future second-round draft pick.
Even though the 28-year-old Hibbert was a strong defensive presence, he was an offensive liability and routinely disappeared during crucial moments. The Pacers drafted young, athletic big man Myles Turner in the first round to replace Hibbert and signed Monta Ellis to add more offensive firepower.
Despite the 38-44 mark last year and roster reshaping this offseason, the Pacers remain solid title contenders in the Eastern Conference. Per Odds Shark, they are tied for 11th with 50-1 championship odds.
For perspective, that 50-1 mark has Indiana tied with the Dallas Mavericks, the Washington Wizards, the Toronto Raptors and the Milwaukee Bucks, all playoff teams in 2014-15.
The Pacers are a strong sleeper team in 2015-16 because of George's return, Ellis' scoring touch, the potential for Turner and the always-reliable presence of George Hill.
Ellis, in particular, is going to bring something different to Indiana. He's been subject to criticism for inconsistency throughout his career, but Gregg Doyel of the Indianapolis Star (h/t Fox Sports Indiana's Pat Boylan) did point out how effective he is as a shooter:
Whether these changes work for the Pacers won't be determined until the season starts, but they are certainly a fascinating team to examine. It's not as difficult to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference, though the gap between the top-tier and everyone else is wide.
Here's a look at the Pacers' 2015-16 schedule, highlighted by key games and a prediction for what their final record will be when the dust settles.
The full schedule can be found here, courtesy of NBA.com.
Analyzing Marquee Matchups
Indiana Pacers vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
When: Nov. 8, Feb. 1, Feb. 29 and April 6
Any discussion of the Pacers and where they stack up in the Eastern Conference has to start with the Cleveland Cavaliers. More specifically, it starts with LeBron James.
Before missing the postseason last year, the Pacers' season ended three consecutive years from 2012-14 thanks to the efforts of James. Those were during his tenure with the Miami Heat, but the Cavs of 2015-16 figure to be atop the conference from opening night.
This is where Ellis comes into the equation. His agent Jeff Fried told Doyel that scoring in the postseason is one thing teams covet when trying to determine how they approach free agency: "A common theme from playoff teams during the free agent period is they want a guy who can get a basket when you need it, deep in the playoffs. Monta is ... the kind of guy who can do that. His game works well in the playoffs."
It remains to be seen whether Ellis can actually do that, as he's never played on a team that made it past the second round.
The whole notion of revenge has been thrown out the window for the Pacers because Bird and Vogel have been busy trying to make this roster more competitive in a short series against teams like the Cavaliers.
However, there is something to be said for a team that goes through a winning progression. The results of Indiana's regular-season games against Cleveland will provide a brief snapshot of where the franchise is at and how far it has to go.
Many members of the Pacers remember those bitter defeats at the hands of James in the playoffs. They will be able to explain, through words and actions, the intensity it takes to go against him in a series. Being able to succeed in the regular season will provide confidence if a postseason matchup is in the cards.
Indiana Pacers vs. Chicago Bulls
When: Nov. 16, Nov. 27, Dec. 30 and March 29
Now we go from one newly established rivalry, at least against an individual player, to an old school NBA rivalry that needs a shot of adrenaline.
Of course, calling the Pacers and the Chicago Bulls a rivalry during the 1990s is a bit like saying the Boston Red Sox and the New York Yankees were rivals from 1919-2003. Both teams have to win in order to make it a legitimate rivalry.
Prior to the three seasons James knocked the Pacers out of the playoffs, they were pushed around by the Bulls in 2011 before losing in five games during the first round. Four years is an eternity in sports, but Derrick Rose did exacerbate things as recently as October 2013.
Speaking to reporters after a victory over the Pacers on October 20, 2013, Rose said he didn't view Indiana as a true rival to Chicago, per ESPN.com's Nick Friedell:
"People say that it's a rivalry, but I don't really see it. I say the team that is more like a rivalry is when Darren Collison was on the team. That one was more like a rivalry, but this team is a great team. They've already proven themselves last year by making it to the Eastern Conference finals.
If anything, by probably in a year or two, it could become a rival. But right now, people say it's a rival. ... I just don't see it right now.
"
Rose's two-year timetable has arrived. His Bulls also know a couple of things about playoff heartache against James, having been eliminated by him three times since 2011.
While neither the Pacers nor the Bulls is at the level of Cleveland, at least on paper, these are the two teams that would seem to give the Cavaliers more problems than anyone else based on history. Their regular-season showdowns will go a long way toward determining which one demands more attention.
Record Prediction
So much of what has already been said paints a positive picture of the Pacers coming into the season. This is a playoff-caliber roster.
The Pacers look like a team with enough talent to win between 45-48 games. That's not exactly a hallmark of a title contender, but it's a top-four seed in the East.
There's the potential for even more victories assuming George will be back to 100 percent, Ellis plays up to his full ability without having some of the low moments that have defined his career and Turner shows more consistency as an NBA rookie than he did as a college freshman.
It's also going to be fascinating seeing how Vogel's ability to build an uptempo style works for the Pacers, who have been built on defense and controlling the pace of play for so long.
Given the talent in place for Vogel to work with, as well as the track record of success for this franchise prior to last season, there's every reason to be optimistic about the Pacers heading into this season. They may not be an elite bunch anymore, but they can certainly get there over an 82-game schedule.
Regular-season record prediction: 47-35
